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Started: by aquarian1 Views / Replies:45,289 / 748
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Trading

  #41 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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there it is the est high

"Sell at/ near open" signal - it was a good signal worth the 5+pts. (well almost 4.75) so I guess not a good signal.

I didn't catch the FE=LE of 1306.25 at 8:47, so I'm not allowed to go for this SE

They could be at this all day..

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Last edited by aquarian1; March 9th, 2011 at 01:03 AM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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Remember if things are not going to well you can always kick Mrs Slocombe's Pussy..

Now that was funny!.....We used to watch that little bit of Brit humor all the time.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #43 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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hanging up the shingle for the day.


going to make the bed, clear my head and do some reading....

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  #44 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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good to follow the rules

Well in the time it took to post the last message it has been to 1324.75 > 1324.25 the buystop.

So my rule about don't take it if it is after 10am and you missed the FE was a good one.

If I had the FE L=1306.25, so say long at 1308 then I am only looking to close a long position.
That means I can just keep watching and waiting and the more they play it up the better, so
"they could be at this all day" means this can be a "long T-top" day
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  #45 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Futures Edge on FIO
There was a point about trading psychology in my post about "put the kettle on".

When you are involved watching the screen and trying to decide if you should enter the trade,
you sometimes realize
"I'm too tense" or
"Something doesn't feel right" or
"I think I am forgetting something."

In these points of mental "crisis" it is sometimes best to "put the kettle on".
That is, get up walk away from the computer and go an make a cup of tea (herbal tea but same idea)- relax and chill.

That is what I did this morning.
As I was standing waiting for the water to boil, my thoughts cleared and I realized:
"what am I doing? It's already moved 19pts and you now are going to trade?
what are you thinking? the trade was at 8:47 (CT) not now - you've missed it and you are breaking your trading rules if you take a trade."

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  #46 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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I would ask people to keep their gutter 'humor' out of my journal.
(I can't lock my journal - though I wish I could. )


The vulgar and the profane
Of the good
Seek to distain.

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  #47 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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difference between previous evening and the morning

I make a preliminary estimate in the evening using the close as a proxy of the opening price.
During the o/n session the range of the overnight trading and the overnight high and low can influence the estimates (if the o/n high or low is outside of the RTH range of yesterday).

Last night it was within the bounds of yesterdays range
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Also the difference from close to open can influence estimates such as in a gap of of 5pts or more.

Blue box is a trade with the evening estimates. Notice that the evening estimates caught the first low but not the second low. The morning estimates caught the second low - see LZ marked with red.

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Good trading to everyone.

Last edited by aquarian1; March 9th, 2011 at 04:40 PM. Reason: updated open to close from -2.00 to -1.50 gotta love that IB!!
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  #48 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Yesterday LZ becomes today's HZ

In keeping with my health resolutions, I was very tired today, and so I slept in. I did not have the computer on until after close.

I recently posted about how the overnight trading can effect my estimates (in brief is the o/n session is an inside bar then it does not have the impact on the estimates as would a session that runs yest H or L.)

last night's o/n session (I run it to 7:30 not 8:30CT) low ran yest lows (1303.75< 1311).

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I did not update my LZ HZ lines from yesterday and on this graph you can see that yest LZ became today's HZ.

This is not as surprising as you might at first think. As the HZ, LZ are designed to catch turning points in the price, (The RHT H & L), then these at as resistance and support if they are breached in the overnight session - so yesterday's estimated support - the LZ was today's resistance - the HZ.

I had a question about day types and hope to be able to post a reply over the weekend.
e.g What is a "nessie" day, long T-top ect.

In brief, they have no impact on the basic idea "sell the high buy the low idea" and are only descriptive terms of the shape of the day, that I hope later to be able to predict. Currently I assign these names at the end of the day. They are not range related, though as you know I don't trade NR days.

(A"cabbage" day is a non-shape ie trendless day that is also NR).
---------------
I had an o/n sell of the HZ which was not filled. I did not enter a LZ buy as I felt the wedge that was forming might break to the downside. (Buying the LZ is a counter trend trade and therefore you only do this IF THE PRICE STOPS FALLING IN THE LZ).

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Good trading to everyone.
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  #49 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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sell near open

8:36 Sell near open signal
limit sell at 1295

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Good trading to everyone.
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  #50 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,642 since Dec 2010
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Filled and in the trade


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Good trading to everyone.
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