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  #401 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Here is a snap of a new program I have downloaded.
It lets you share screens and voice and has a whiteboard feature where you can draw in your charts


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  #402 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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In discussions with a friend today we were talking about chart patterns. Both he and I noticed the narrowing ranges each day. I then shared with him this 30 min chart. It shows a triangle.

In classical theory if it breaks out of the triangle too late very close to the apex it can just dribble out. Earlier though, it is an energy formation like a tightening spring. When it breaks out either way you go with it. Breaking out to the upside means the bulls won and to the downside the bears.

Each pattern has a different reliability and must also be considered in terms of the larger time frame context - which can alter the meaning and the implication. Not all patterns have measurements - some are only direction.

A triangle is a fairly low reliability and has no accepted measurement. For fun I have added my own measurement.
I have T1=1506.50 and T2=1503.



Within a larger context I have included another measurement the 50% level. It gives a target of 1500.50.
T3=1500.50

I like the latter target as it works better with the feel of the previous highs.

Chart patterns take practice, judgement and experience - hard work. The reason that most new traders (i.e started in the last 25 years) look upon them with askance. They prefer to get lost in a sea of indicators, ego puffing pontification and a maze of statistics. They become the food of the algos.

Statistical analysis cannot rate a chart pattern reliability -for the reasons mentioned above- judgement, larger context and multiple methods. However, it soothes the minds of those who hate work and judgement.
A palette and a paint brush can create a masterpiece in the hands of an artist. The results in the hands a those with closed minds and no desire to practice - nothing but a mess.


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  #403 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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2013-02-14_0819 - aquarian_ian's library

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  #404 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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In the video you saw me select the 1511.25 and the 1519 from the Premarketinfo lads choices.
So far 1511 @8:33
and
1519.25 @12:12


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  #405 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Five minute chart


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  #406 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Friday 22 Feb 2013

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  #407 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Fiddlesticks

originally had a high est at 1497.50 then moved it up 1499.25 so my HZ is too high and missed the FE=HE
(still upset about missing yesterday.)


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  #408 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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results for Tuesday

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  #409 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From Larry's email

Just last week the market was near its all-time highs, the Dow being only a few points from its highest close of 2007.

I know that the markets are not rational and do not follow that line of thinking, but let’s play that game anyway. If the market is nearing 2007 highs, shouldn’t it follow that today’s economic news are as good as 2007’s? That would be reasonable, but the market just doesn’t work like that – especially when it is being rigged by the world’s central bankers.

How long can the following (close estimates) hold up?

Silver: Oct. 2007=$13, last week =$30
Gold: Oct 2007=$760, last week = $1,620
Reported Unemployment: Oct 2007 = 4.7%, today = 7.9%
Case-Shiller Home Index: Oct 2007 = 190.9, today = 144.9
New Home Sales: 2007 = 774K, 2012 = 367K
Housing Units Built: 2007 = 1,500K, 2012 = 651K
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet: Oct 2007 = $873B, today = $3.11T
Food Stamp Recipients: Dec 2007 = 28.7M, today = 48.2M
Federal Spending, Annual Rate: 2007 = $2.7T, today = $3.6T
Fed Tax Revenues, Annual: 2007 = $2.5T, today = $2.4T
Retail Gasoline Price: 2007=$2.84/gal, 2013 = $4.19/gal (Chicago)
Money Supply: Oct 2007 = $851.6B, today = $2.76 Trillion
Personal Bankruptcies: 2007 = 801K (75% up from 2006), 2012 = 1.25 million
Foreclosures: 2007 = 405k (40% up from 2006), 2012 = 742K

Although the market dipped a little last week, none of this seems to matter. As long as the Fed keeps printing and we all have “faith,” it will go up forever. What’s more, the sequester D-Day is this Friday and this time around it seems to not matter at all.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."
---Larry Levin

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  #410 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Today I learned of accounts and sweeping.

Apparently if you try to place a trade and your net liquid assets show enough money you may not have enough as some might be sitting in your commodities account. So you have to sweep the funds from the commodities account to the securities accounts - (so it's all in one place???)

To do:
Manage Account > Settings > Configure Account > Excess Funds Sweep
select: Sweep excess funds into my IB securities account
and push sweep button




--- Here's the IB blurb on it---
Excess Funds Sweep

Your Interactive Brokers Universal Account is authorized to trade securities products, commodities/futures products and Foreign Exchange ("forex") transactions and therefore consists of two underlying accounts, a securities account governed by rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a futures account governed by rules of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Whether you have assets in an IB securities account or in an IB futures account, your assets are protected by U.S. federal regulations governing how brokers like IB must protect your property and funds. In the IB securities account, your assets are protected by SEC and SIPC rules (Note: foreign currency is protected to the extent used to purchase securities). In the IB futures account, your assets are protected by CFTC rules requiring segregation of customer funds. You are also protected by IB's strong financial position and our conservative risk management philosophy. See IB's Strength & Security page.

As part of the IB Universal Account service, you have authorized IB to automatically transfer funds as necessary between your IB securities account and your IB futures account in order to satisfy margin requirements in either account.
Note:
All IB customer deposits are initially received into the IB securities account and will remain in that account unless you choose commodities sweep below.
Selecting "securities" sweep below is strongly recommended for any customer identified as a securities pattern day trader.
Regardless of your choice, IB will generally keep a small buffer of excess margin funds in each account in order to prevent excessive transfers back and forth as your margined securities and futures positions fluctuate in value.

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  #411 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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In trying to get my account problem solved first I tried the live text chat.
It takes several minutes for a rep to come into the chat and quite a bit of time between each time you type something and they reply.

Then they had an account connection prb with broke the chat mid session and a stupit pop-up to tell you the session was re-established - which is wasn't and keeps popping up, you click it reappears about 100 times.

---------

Then you call them by telephone.
1-877-745-4222

I waited 9 minutes on hold waiting for a trade rep before I gave up waiting
Just imagine 9 min and in a position going against you and your computer down...

---
While waiting I saw on their screen the new account referral program -the irony of it all--

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  #412 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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10:03 AM 3/7/2013

Most people misinterpret my system(s). On the first page I have an overview of the simplified rules.
These include several discretionary measures such as "looking like the top is in", direction with MA etc.
They tend to look solely at the HZ and LZ as fixed -even though I write "splash zones".

Also the system is designed for normal range days averaging about 15 points.
Less than 12 is a NR day. Today's estimate is 9.75. So one can't be as confident of the HZ and LZ especially if there is range expansion during the day.

At this time it is looking like chop or a cabbage day. Today you could look for the high or low in the 13:00-14:00CT time slot.


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  #413 (permalink)
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Excellent call on prior post- will review thread later..going for lunch

Yea one of those days 1 trade for me, as you know this is rare..

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  #414 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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aquarian1 View Post
10:03 AM 3/7/2013


At this time it is looking like chop or a cabbage day. Today you could look for the high or low in the 13:00-14:00CT time slot.


Today the HOD was 1545.50 @ 10:56 so in the HZ 1544.75 to 1547.75
Today's LOD was in the 13:00-14:00 window L1540.75 @ 13:12

Today's range = 4.75 == cabbage (cabbage is NR choppy, trendless mess)

High 1545.50
Low 1540.75
Open 1542.75
Close 1543.25
Percent 53%
VWap 1543.25
Range 4.75

best rng estimate == fork
Speed est range = 15.75
Estimated range = 9.75
Fork range est = 4.75

We still managed +2.25 on midpt chg, so postive but decreasing.
From Monday forward:
Mid: 1518.25 9.00 Mid: 1537.50 19.25 Mid: 1541.00 3.50 Mid: 1543.25 2.25

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  #415 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Rad4633 View Post
Yea one of those days 1 trade for me, as you know this is rare..

Yes one trade in a day is rare for you! .
Some days are best left to the market makers.

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  #416 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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9:41 AM 3/8/2013

The big spike in the preopen session and the unusual time estimates and it being Crooks' Day
and only having 3 hours sleep and being under a lot of stress make me reluctant to trade.
As we have FE=HE it is possible that we are building a V day with H1551.50@8:32 then a low (11:00-12:00 area?)
and then back up towards the end of the day.
IHIH
GLTA


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  #417 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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my range est applied to L1542.25 at 9:13
with est rng of 12 =>1552.75
OR
with fork range est of 10.50 => 1550.25 (and so with H1551.50 at 8:32 both HOD and LOD could possibly be in place )

back to bed

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  #418 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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  #419 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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the day seems to have peaked out at the 1589 (15/16) level.


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Market Wizard
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Support level 1570.50 to be tested tomorrow Monday 29 Apr 2013?


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  #421 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Stop running could push it down to 1565.75 -9/16 ths
could bounce at 1569.75 as well


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  #422 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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A pssible scenario is a retracement of a low
If the low is 1570.50 (the support level a 50% bounce is 1579


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  #423 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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looking for a 10.75 range and estimated high of 88 or 88.75
not trading this.
GLTA
http://screencast.com/t/zTvhyHGDj


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  #424 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Well if I had been ready it would have been an OK trade.
That the high is high doesn't matter as it woul have only been more profit.
Actual range of 12.75 was 2pt wider than the est of 10.75


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  #425 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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very late today - lots of computer prbs.
est range 8.50 and so far 7.75
low stop of 1581 not yet met but close at 1581.25 so both ends could be in.



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  #426 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Price should start to fall from these levels (H1589.25 ES)


Just now meeting with the DVWAP 2nd Dev Band resistance. Price will likely consolidate over lunch then push through to yesterday's high or all time high. I have targets at the 1595.50 and 1599.75 areas.

See

Ken COTtrader

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  #427 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From Larry Levin
Fri, Apr 26, 2013 4:29 AM PDT

Scam

Well, well, well, we?re here again with another day that brings
more bearish global economic data?and higher equity prices.
The whole idea is surely absurd but it continues. And why
not; we got?s-the hopium baby!

The poor economic data that flows day-after-day-after-day and
begets higher share prices, but is nothing less than a scam, is
brought to you by the central banksters of the world. Chairman
MaoNanke?s scams have grown like a cancer across the globe;
however, the scam seems to be growing into a deadly cancer.

Central banksters are now buying their favorite stocks?YES,
EQUITIES?with taxpayer funds. Holy-Hell, what a fund that must
be!

From Bloomberg we read the specifics?

In a survey of 60 central bankers this month by Central Banking
Publications and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, 23 percent
said they own shares or plan to buy them. The Bank of Japan,
holder of the second-biggest reserves, said April 4 it will
more than double investments in equity exchange-traded funds to
3.5 trillion yen ($35.2 billion) by 2014. The Bank of Israel
bought stocks for the first time last year while the Swiss
National Bank and the Czech National Bank have boosted their
holdings to at least 10 percent of reserves.

?In the last year or so, I have spoken with 103 central banks
on diversification,? Gary Smith, London-based global head of
official institutions at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, which
oversees about $649 billion, said in a phone interview. ?If
reserves are growing, so are diversification pressures.
Equities are not for every bank tomorrow, but more are
continuing down this path.?

If reserves are growing? pressure to diversifybuying
equities? etc by CENTRAL BANKS?and you all wonder why I call
the market a scam?

It is NOT a free market.

Those closest to the government get to run it: The
Kleptocracy.

It is a Centrally Planned market.

Oh, and if you need more evidence (although it is all around
you every day) the Kleptocracy beyond the central bank
continues to grow WITHOUT SHAME. Those in power want cheap
healthcare but they don?t want to pay for it even though they
voted for it!

Oh sure, they love the ?law;? that is to say: they love the
idea. But they HATE the very reality that they not only voted
for, but will demand until their last breath. It?s a scam, and
it is truly sickening. Seriously, you?re just a voter ? a
jester ? a fool ? in their game of manipulation.

At this very moment the would-be Kings

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  #428 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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COTtrader View Post
Just now meeting with the DVWAP 2nd Dev Band resistance. Price will likely consolidate over lunch then push through to yesterday's high or all time high. I have targets at the 1595.50 and 1599.75 areas.

See

Ken COTtrader

@COTtrader
Hi Ken,

Well done and good call!
I had my nap (second half of my nighttime sleep) after posting this.
I slept 12:30 to 3:30 and then 9:30 to 14:30 my time (PT).
If I have no trade in place by 10am CT my rules say don't trade.
If I don't expect a range of more than 12pts then no trading for that day.

Today was a "checkmark" shaped day so a reversal of intraday direction at 9:04 (CT) low.

I'm working on... time permitting .... identifying the days shape in advance.

after the close and after I wake up I collect end of day data and update my spreadsheets -- two more hours work and then go for a coffee and review theday and look for ideas. That make it 8pm PT and then supper, chores and bedtime wrap -up ... and its mignight!!

back to work!

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  #429 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
very late today - lots of computer prbs.
est range 8.50 and so far 7.75
low stop of 1581 not yet met but close at 1581.25 so both ends could be in.

Although ES did not hit my preferred price projections it nailed its 161.8% fib extension right at the close.



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  #430 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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@Rad4633
@COTtrader

-------
07:28 am : [BRIEFING.COM] U.S. equity futures have slipped in reaction to a disappointing ADP Employment Change report. According to today's ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 119K in April. This was below the increase of 155K expected by the Briefing.com consensus.
----------

Cobra » Wed May 01, 2013 7:47 am
Flat open, so any gap will be filled.
Could be a rising wedge on Global ES. Wedge is difficult to trade (like divergence) because it's very hard to timing when it's going to fall.
-------
9:00 AM 5/1/2013
looks of unclarity today
timings are not good with move in preopen on ADP


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  #431 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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just for fun
getting sleepy


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  #432 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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out


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@COTtrader

This is what my spreadsheet produces
do the price match yours?

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hxd

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RTH main direction expected to be up.
buy area and time shown in elipse


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{edit this was a sim trade for the thread fundamentals for new traders which ended up here thw an error on the screensnap ultility - no cash trades today.}

We have closed out on one contract are holding the second.
(This is called "scaling out" of the trade as opposed to all-out at one price.)
We have adjusted the sop on the second to the cost price 1589.75

You scale out if you believe the setup is still valid but you are concerned that the price action shows weakening.


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The result was 6.75 points for the two contracts
Buy = 1589.5
Buy = 1589.75
Sell = 1592
Sell = 1594
6.75
50
337.50



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nice RTH R2
match

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As you can see this is not a day to trade.

Breakout means a breakout is likely that is > 1614 and your estimated high is only 2 points lower.
You needed to buy below 1600.50 for 12PPP and that wasn't possible with the low 1605.50 @8;30
You need to sell above 1615.50 but that violated the buystop of 1614 as you never sell above your buystop.

So the rules say-
GO BACK TO BED


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Aquarian,

Here are those same levels from my 5 min chart.



Ken


aquarian1 View Post
As you can see this is not a day to trade.

Breakout means a breakout is likely that is > 1614 and your estimated high is only 2 points lower.
You needed to buy below 1600.50 for 12PPP and that wasn't possible with the low 1605.50 @8;30
You need to sell above 1615.50 but that violated the buystop of 1614 as you never sell above your buystop.

So the rules say-
GO BACK TO BED



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RTH only for Tuesday May 7


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Tuesday 7 May


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premarkets and me

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Linda R webinar

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Today's range estimate was too narrow


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The bottom rectangle is 2.25 high so if today's low is 2.25 higher than yest as was on Thursdsay then that would be 1622.25
Next, I put a retrace on the move as indicated. The 25% is roughly the same level.

If uptrend then will this be the LOD?


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2:15 am CT volume spike (7:15 london and 8:15 Berlin?) was a green up bar from 1629.50 to 1627.50


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Friday

note V,C, cabbage

expected RTH is up
late with numbers and probably miss the first end - again!

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this is looking like the LOD coming up
1619.50 is the estimate
wait for indcator confirmation



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10:24 AM 5/10/2013

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@Rad4633
7:36 PM 5/10/2013

I little bit more on the HZ and LZ estimated ranges.

Once the actual low is in place (L1620.25)
then add the estimated range to it for the
HOD. I call this my "range rule".

That is, the the HZ is no longer in effect.
When you have extra new information of the
actual low vs an estimated low.

L1620.25 10=1630.25
Actual 1630.50



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must get below 2x1 and 43.25


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close below 44.50 measures to 41.75
(hasn't close below it yet (3 mim)


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aquarian1 View Post
screensnap util caused my NT to crash - F-ck

@vvhg, please check to see if it's related to the SSL change.

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screensnap util caused my NT to crash - F-ck

Could you please have a look in your trace file if there are any clues and send ne the relevant stuff via PM? Theoretically this indicator should not be able to crash NT under any circumstances as I thought that I wrapped everything that potentially could cause a crash in error handling blocks. But then people say theoretically there is no difference between theory and practice, practically there is...

Vvhg

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Big Mike View Post
@vvhg, please check to see if it's related to the SSL change.

Mike

It should not be, but I'll check anyway.

Vvhg

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vvhg View Post
Could you please have a look in your trace file if there are any clues and send ne the relevant stuff via PM? Theoretically this indicator should not be able to crash NT under any circumstances as I thought that I wrapped everything that potentially could cause a crash in error handling blocks. But then people say theoretically there is no difference between theory and practice, practically there is...

Vvhg

@vvhg

Hi Vvhg,

Yes I could. However, I have been having some tough slogging personally.

First I messed up with whitespace and then today I got a long call from montreal I thought was important, closed a trade that would have been $260 for $23 to find out it was only the florist who has problems writing down my visa number. I needed that trade.

I think it it more a question of my very limited laptop than your ulilt.

I really don't think you should waste your time on it unless someone else reports it later.
Both you and mike have been generous with your time and I need to regroup focus and get rest.

For the time being I've remove the util.
I must focus on my trading.

I think you should ignore my post above (it was just frustration talking - it takes forever to reboot an reload everything I use) as I think it's more the universe telling me to get focus than anything else.

Good trading to you and thanks for all your time you spent programming it.
(as a sidenote I think I often get routed to bigmike cdn -- not sure if that is relevant.

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a little video on what I missed.

argh! 2013-05-31_1929 -




PS at the end of the URL for the video it has the time = 1929
interesting! Is that a message or what!!??!!

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Sat 5:54 PM 6/15/2013CT
Here's a recap.

The top may be in with confirmation on weekly close < 1593
The SAR on the ETH works well for trend
The downmove since 22 May peak temporarily exceeded previous downmoves.

2013-06-15_1733 - aquarian_ian's library


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Wednesdays with Wyckoff: When to Close a Position | Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Jun 19, 2013: 9:24 AM CST

With all the literature out there, it’s easy to find trade set-ups and entry strategies, but the real money is often made with proper exit logic/strategies.

What did classical thinker Richard Wyckoff say about closing a trading position?

In his book Studies in Tape Reading, Wyckoff identifies four specific reasons to close a trade:

“A Tape Reader must close a trade…

When the tape tells him to close
When his stop-loss is caught
When his position is not clear
When he has a large or satisfactory profit.”

cont..
“The first and most important reason for closing a trade is that the Tape/Price says so.”

“Within the ribbon of sales recorded in the tape, there runs a fine silken thread of the trend. It is clearly distinguishable to one sufficiently versed in the art of Tape Reading.”

“When one is short [a stock] and this thread suddenly indicates that the market has turned upward, it is folly to remain short.”

“One must have the flexibility of whale bone and entertain no rigid [bullish or bearish] opinion. He must obey the tape implicitly.”

In other words, watch price action (strength, weakness, divergences, impulses) and be on guard for any sudden/unexpected developments while you’re in the trade that directly contradict the reason you entered a trade.

The same goes for #3 when “the position becomes unclear” or price did not behave as expected once you put on the trade. Perhaps you expected a sudden upward impulse but instead, price stagnated – Wyckoff would suggest an exit.

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@urghan2


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7:05 PM 6/19/2013


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12:09 AM 6/24/2013

Though the close is less than the key level I'd like to give it a few more points
<1576 close to confirm.

Slight bounce to 3/8 level (1600) with the previous high 1597.25 close by.
50% is 1609.50.

breakdown confirmed if a 1576 close on Sept contract 2013-06-24_0007 -

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Market Wizard
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I made a wonderful video for a week-end summary and then when I hit done, Jing stopped working.
s00 -- taking it as a sign to forget it.

trend is down.
thurs /friday made the retrace top in the 5/8 area (1613) -
so down.
First move on Monday is usually up so a move to 1610 and the down and run the low stops.

Happy Canada Day -all you Canucks out there!!
Go out and celebrate!!

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I asked IB about entering stop limit orders for a flash crash
They replied that as long as the order is in the price band it will not be rejected.


For the ES it is 6 points
cme page
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/GCC+Price+Banding
Futures Price Banding
A Price Band Variation (PBV) is a static value that varies by product. It is symmetrically applied to both the upside (for bids) and downside (for offers) to determine the Price Band Variation Range (PBVR). With each price change the PBVR is recalculated and the new range is applied. The CME Globex platform rejects all bids and offers outside the PBVR.

•During the Pre-Open and the Pre-Open/Non-Cancel period, the contract's Settlement Price is the reference price.
•Once the first Indicative Opening Price (IOP) is calculated, it becomes the reference price.
•During trading hours, the Last Price is the reference price.
•If no IOP or Last Price is established, the Settlement Price remains the reference price until a Last Price is established.
In the event of a market emergency, when a market is placed in a non-trading mode during trading hours, the IOP serves as the reference price during the non-regular Pre-Open and Pre-Open/Non Cancel Period. If no IOP is available, the Last Price is the reference price.

product reference sheet
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/GCC+Product+Reference+Sheet

Here is the excel for all products
https://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/download/attachments/32112769/Globex%20Product%20Reference.xls?version=63&modificationDate=1372362083000&api=v2

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From Launchpad:

"Too much information can sour you mood. Starting your day gorging on newspaper headlines magazines, conference calls, blogs, presentations, TV interviews and trending lists can leave your head sore and you mood foul. In today’s information age “getting better at separating the data wheat from the information chaff” is a critical skill and the consequences of overreacting to each day’s headlines can be financially ruinous. Finding the right balance, ignoring attention seeking headlines and focusing on the data is essential to avoid the emotional roller coaster

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from Larry Levin email:

Note the massive amounts of cumulative purchases

Fisher divides it by "every man woman and child" yet if we were to divide it by taxpayers we might have 4 times that amount and if people earning more than $100,000 to $150,000 (scaled ceiling) were primarily excluded the number receiving the grant would be about 8 times ==> $90,000 per.

Instead of the money having gone into the coffers of the banks who created this mess imagine if he had been given directly to taxpayers in their RIA from which they could borrow interest free to start or invest in a small business or self-employed business.


Now that would have helped instead of engorging the bloated fat banker pigs of wall street.
Not surprising that the fed is primarily owned by a banking cartel of major USA banks.
(see creature of Jekel (sp?) Island
---------
A few days ago Fed member, and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, gave a speech to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. Its title was "Horseshift! (With Reference to Gordian Knots). It is a rather amazing piece of truth from someone inside the FOMC and the title is amazing. The entire speech can be found here Horseshift! (With Reference to Gordian Knots) - Dallas Fed

The phrase "Gordian Knot" is used to describe a problem that is so exceedingly complicated that it results in a deadlock for all parties. One way to solve a Gordian Knot problem, however, would be to cheat as legend has it Alexander the Great did by cutting the knot rather than solving the riddle of it.

Mr. Fisher believes that the Fed has gotten itself into a Gordian Knot, of which there may be no escape. A few excerpts follow...

This later program is referred to as quantitative easing, or QE, by the public and as large-scale asset purchases, or LSAPs, internally at the Fed. As a result of LSAPs conducted over three stages of QE, the Fed’s System Open Market Account now holds $2 trillion of Treasury securities and $1.3 trillion of agency and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Since last fall, when we initiated the third stage of QE, we have regularly been purchasing $45 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion a month in MBS, meanwhile reinvesting the proceeds from the paydowns of our mortgage-based investments. The result is that our balance sheet has ballooned to more than $3.5 trillion.That’s $3.5 trillion, or $11,300 for every man, woman and child residing in the United States.

The Challenge of Untying the Monetary Gordian Knot

The challenge now facing the FOMC is that of deciding when to begin dialing back (or as the financial press is fond of reporting: “tapering”) the amount of additional security purchases. In his press conference following our June FOMC meeting, speaking on behalf of the Committee, Chairman Bernanke made clear the parameters for dialing back and eventually ending the QE program. Should the economy continue to improve along the lines then envisioned by Committee, the market could anticipate our slowing the rate of purchases later this year, with an eye toward curtailing new purchases as the unemployment rate broaches 7 percent and prospects for solid job gains remain promising.

This is a delicate moment. The Fed has created a monetary Gordian Knot. You can see the developing complexity of that knot in this sequence of slides tracing the change in our portfolio structure with each phase of QE.

Fed president Fisher then describes in detail the kind of QE purchases and amounts in detail then says: The point is: We own a significant slice of these critical markets. This is, indeed, something of a Gordian Knot.

There is no Alexander to simply slice the complex knot that we have created with our rounds of QE. Instead, when the right time comes, we must carefully remove the program's pole pin and gingerly unwind it so as not to prompt market havoc. For starters though, we need to stop building upon the knot. For this reason, I have advocated that we socialize the idea of the inevitability of our dialing back and eventually ending our LSAPs. In June, I argued for the Chairman to signal this possibility at his last press conference and at last week’s meeting suggested that we should gird our loins to make our first move this fall. We shall see if that recommendation obtains with the majority of the Committee.

And if that was "truthy" enough, he also said the following, which I find simply amazing. You will NEVER hear Chairman MaoNanke say this: Counteracting whatever benefits one can trace to the Fed’s unorthodox policies are some obvious costs. First, savers and others who rely on retirement monies invested in short-maturity fixed-income investments, such as bank CDs and Treasury bills, have seen their income evaporate while the rich and the quick, the big money players of Wall Street have become richer still.

Second, the standard return assumptions of 7.5 to 8 percent for retirement pools, as you well know, have been dashed (though I have always felt they were already calculated on an imaginary and politically convenient basis rather than a realistic one).
Now - will anyone else at the Fed have the guts to stand with Mr. Fisher and end the madness?
---Larry Levin

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Sierra Chart also works with LMAX, which has a minimum position size of 1.000 units (so no 25k units for IDEALPRO), smaller slippage (no minimum tick size of 0.5 pip as with IB), and with a commission of 0.0025% of notional trade value (so no minimum $2.50).

Sierra Chart's implementation of the LMAX connection uses the FIX API however, which means you'll have monthly account minimums (in terms of volume and account size), or else pay the API fee.

An alternative, also since you mention you only trade two instruments, would be MultiCharts .NET Starter Edition (which is free): more professional than MT4, and uses the other API version (so no monthly minimums).

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Today's trade I didn't take.
est low 1694
(stuuf at the top is last night with special alert of buy yesterday's low
notice RLP low est 1694 and visual 1692)
actual 1693.25
Arg!!!


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I want either buy 1701.25 and then sell it at 1708.25
or
sell 1708.25 and buy it (close the short trade) at 1701.25


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Market Wizard
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Well it didn't like it.

It flashed "unsupported scale order" a few times and cancelled the stop orders.

...hmmmnn ?? (guy scratching head icon).

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For months, there has been talk inside and outside the Federal Reserve that the U.S. central bank might have to use an unorthodox method to exit its bond buying program. That could be even more accurate now. On Monday, four days after Bernanke announced the Fed would put off winding down the program -- the so-called taper -- New York Fed president William Dudley said the U.S. central bank was testing so-called reverse repos as one method to eventually increase interest rates.

In reverse repos, the Fed drains money from the economy by having banks, money market funds, and others give it money overnight for a fee. It's kind of like a loan, but not quite. The Fed gives banks Treasury bonds as collateral. The rate on the repo effectively sets short-term interest rates, because why would anyone make a loan for less when the Fed is willing to pay risk-free?

That's not how the Fed typically raises interest rates. Historically, it has sold Treasury bonds to drive up rates. But that may no longer work because the U.S. central bank now has over $3.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds. It would take much more selling than usual to move the market. What's more, to calm market fears about its bond buying program, Bernanke essentially pledged that the U.S. central bank would never actually sell the bonds.

The Fed considers a contorted exit strategy from stimulus - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blogTerm Sheet

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Thursday 26 Sep 2013

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with estimates of:
1695.75 for o/n high =le1
1687.50 for o/n low =le2
enter your limit orders.


then add the stops
buystop 1698.25 for above the sell =le2
sellstop 1684.00 for the one below the buy = le1

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L1688.75 @ 8:30
H1697.50 @ 9:10
L1686.50 @ 10:22


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Italy’s government bonds fell amid speculation that traders who deal directly with the Rome-based Treasury bought most of the securities at today’s auction as the nation’s political tensions deterred other buyers.

Italian 10-year bonds dropped for a second day before Prime Minister Enrico Letta meets President Giorgio Napolitano to discuss the government’s prospects for survival. Former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s allies this week threatened to step down from the coalition if he is expelled from the Senate. Italy auctioned a combined 6 billion euros ($8.1 billion) of five- and 10-year debt. German bunds rose with Dutch securities as European stocks declined, boosting demand for safer assets.

“The issue is that it was a dealer-led affair and there wasn’t much real-money buying,” said Harvinder Sian, a senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The dealers have had to take too much of the debt so we’re likely to see some of that coming back in to the market. For us, the risk-reward for Italian debt at these levels is not that compelling.”

Italy’s 10-year yield climbed seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4.41 percent at 2:50 p.m. London time, extending this week’s increase to 12 basis points. The rate jumped 10 basis points yesterday, the most since Sept. 5. The 4.5 percent bond maturing in May 2023 fell 0.555, or 5.55 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 101.06.
Italy?s Bonds Drop as Political Tensions Deter Buyers at Auction - Bloomberg

--------
interesting how the media has seemed to have forgotten, Greece, Italy, Portugal.
I rad an article about the hard landing of China is inevitable with the non-stimulus policies of the new Premier.
US debt ceiling and (IMO) a US equity bubble ... storm clouds...)

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Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told Congress Tuesday that the U.S. government has started to use the last of its "extraordinary measures" to ensure it stays below debt ceiling.

Now that those steps are underway, it won't be long before the country can no longer pay all its bills in full.

"There are no other legal and prudent options to extend the nation's borrowing authority," Lew wrote. The Treasury Department "continues to believe" that it will run out of extraordinary measures no later than Oct. 17, he added.

At that point, Treasury will only be able to pay the bills that come due with two things -- the $30 billion in cash that Lew estimates Treasury will have on hand in mid-October, plus the revenue coming in every day.

(Related:8 things you need to know about debt ceiling)

Since daily payments and daily revenue inflows vary from day to day, it's impossible to predict exactly when Treasury will come up short and be unable to pay everything that's due, putting the country at risk of default.

The Congressional Budget Office projects that day could come between Oct. 22 and Oct. 31, if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, which currently stands at $16.699 trillion.
Treasury down to last steps on debt ceiling - Yahoo Finance

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Thursday, while working at the coffee shop, a fellow patron after asking what I did, said
"I'm surprised you don't have a lucky charm."

I thought about this, and thought (I'm surprised too) and dug out my silver dollar to put in my jeans pocket for Friday.
(I don't really know what to have for a lucky charm - I guess it will do?)

This morning, Saturday, I hefted the coin -solid safe re-assuring.

The weight in my hand seemed to summarize the change in the world.
When that coin was distributed a silver dollar coin was a dollar - you could ask for it at the bank - your grandfathers and grandmothers would give them as birthday gifts.

Beautiful, with a lustrous shine it was something worth having.
-felt wonderful in the hand of a child.

In 1967 Canada stopped making silver coins (the dollar, 50 cent piece, the quarter and dime -- all silver). Hunt brothers had pushed the price up and Americans were buying and melting the coins. Sadly and irritreviably the world enter inflation and the govt never went back to silver even when inflation ended.

(A silver $5 piece weighing a troy ounce can be purchased at the post office for about $30)

I imagine a one dollar silver coin would have to be about 1/30 of an ounce - very embarrassing for the govt to issue - a graphic reminder of their epic mismanagement of the economy.

Times gone by
lost era of solidness, professionalism and pride in a doing your job well.

A great crash is coming- say my bones and the weight of the silver dollar in my palm.

As the great bankster's thief - bad Ben strolls chuckling into the sunset rubbing his hands with glee at the horrendous damage he has done - robbing the nation's treasury to enrich his cronies at Goldman Sucks and JP money..
17 trillion

$17,000,000,000,000.00 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

of debt.

--------------
I'm the first to admit the chart attached is green - but Noah didn't wait for rain before building his ark (buying puts).


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Market Wizard
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this is something I'm working on.
One minute data is exported from NT into a spreadsheet.

When a cumulative volume spike is given then limit sell is taken from the previous high price bar.

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Seeing a breakout and signals
(done after the close)
ES Monday 14 Oct 2013

(Note "signal bar" label for something else -just ignore)



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Market Wizard
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On the weekend I updated my handchart for the ES.

It's amazing how much you notice when you do it by hand.

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The estimates are made before open.
Usually there is more confidence in one end and today it was the high end 1741.50 area.
The first end was determined by the short term indicators and the signal was to buy < 1732.50 once you have confirmation of the indicators and at a time somewhere near the open.
Today it was 1730.25 at 8:39

Once in the trade long you are focused to the second end, the high (1740.50 area).
Today the actual high was 1740.25 (which you can see was the average of the tricycle and crossed arcs high estimates.


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Friday 18 Oct 2013
Just for fun

the red 1755 is a gann rectangle possible major turn level.
the black 1756.75 is a jury rigged 8.5 pts per week from 1340.25
1752 is the number reduction estimate

Separately (on a new untried system I have 18 Oct 2013 as a possible date for a swing high (which would make today's high 1740.25 the high) .

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breaking $98 area looks to cement triple top

(note 5 year and 1 year are continuous contract charts with mixed prices so look to cash market find 50% and then look for resistance near that.)




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11:59 PM 11/6/2013
2013-11-06_2357 - aquarian_ian's library

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aquarian1 View Post
breaking $98 area looks to cement triple top

(note 5 year and 1 year are continuous contract charts with mixed prices so look to cash market find 50% and then look for resistance near that.)




drop it did

can I click my own thank-you button???
Thanks aquaman that was money in the bank!!!!!!!



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the drop


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the drop


hope u got some of it, I was busy didnt trade much

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Market Wizard
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Hi Rad,

thanks.

no I was exhausted this morning (as per video post above "dentist"). Family stress etc and I just couldn't get up.
I tried and computer prbs as well.

I'm kicking myself around the block and back.
Been waiting all week for this and really needed the trade.

I just don't don't what is going wrong - I must have pissed on God's shoes without knowing it.

I just can't understand...
(and if you've been following the CIT thread you knew this was "baked-in")

oh well, one foot in front of the other.

Someone told me this year 2013 was my personal year of "test and trial" -year 4.
Sure has been!!


keep trucking it can't rain forever ---- I hope

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argh

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10:26 AM 11/15/2013
(from TD site)

INVESTMENT FOCUS-Stocks may be running out of steam
by Thomson Reuters

By Natsuko Waki

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Global stocks may be running out of room to rally further after a bumper year as the fragile economic recovery and the prospect of a cut in the Federal Reserve's bond buying discourage big investors.

Equities are the best performing asset so far in 2013, with the benchmark MSCI world equity index rising 17 percent since January. Wall Street and some European indexes have been hitting record highs on a daily basis.

This year's rally is unique because it has been mainly driven by mutual funds and retail investors. They have been able to sustain inflows by reinvesting their income, as cash-rich corporates not confident enough to expand their businesses increase dividends and buy back shares to reward shareholders.

In contrast, institutional investors - who collectively manage $56 trillion, or 70 percent of global investment assets - have yet to fully embrace this year's "Great Rotation" move into equities out of bonds.

Fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch had a relatively high 4.6 percent of their portfolios in cash this month, while the number of investors saying equities are expensive hit its highest level since January 2002.

Data from JP Morgan shows pension funds and insurers in the United States, Japan, Europe and Britain have actually bought $230 billion of bonds in the first half of this year and sold $20 billion of equities.

"Right now we're sitting in our overweight equity positions. We wouldn't buy more. In the short-term the market will be sensitive to all the tapering questions concerning the Fed," said Benjamin Melman, head of asset allocation at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris.

"If you look at valuations, there's a far less room for manoeuvre compared with what we had previously. We probably won't see the same kind of performance on equities next year."

The ratio of equity prices to expected earnings over the next 12 months for the S&P 500 index is currently 14.8 - the highest since 2010 and above its long-term average of 13.9.

The same measure for STOXX Europe 600, at 13.3 percent, is at a four-year peak and notably above its average Of 12.0.

So far this year, global equity funds have drawn $229 billion of inflows or 3.7 percent of total assets under management (AUM), with Europe attracting inflows for 20 consecutive weeks, according to BofA data to November 13.

Bonds drew just $15 billion, or 0.5 percent of AUM, while money market funds had $95 billion of outflows, equivalent to 2.9 percent of AUM.

Respondents to the BofA survey said G7 bank lending growth and Chinese and Asian growth are the missing catalysts for further gains.

"Investors want to be involved in stocks but they are not fully invested," BofA's European investment strategist Manish Kabra said. "What will turn reluctant bulls into raging bulls? We need to see more bank lending growth in the G7."

Bank lending in the United States and Japan is accelerating, but European banks are still shrinking their balance sheets and cutting back on loans.

There is also a long-term incentive for institutional investors to avoid equities because of regulatory changes that require funds to take on extra capital when they increase holdings of risk assets.

"There's more regulatory burden to hold equities for institutions," Rothschild's Melman said.

TAPERING THREAT

Renewed discussion about when the Fed will start to scale back its monetary stimulus could prompt selling of equities as it would lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields.

Comments this week by next Fed chief Janet Yellen making plain she would keep the U.S. central bank's easy monetary policy until a job-creating economic recovery was in place have pushed stocks back towards five-year highs.

A string of U.S. data pointing to a stronger recovery had recently prompted markets to revise their expectations of when the Fed will begin to taper to early as December from March.

Societe Generale says U.S. stocks will come under pressure if the equity risk premium - the excess return that investors require to hold stocks over risk-free bonds - normalises to its long-term average of 3.9 percent from the current 4.6 percent and bond yields to rise to 3.9 percent by end-2014.

"Rising bond yields during period of economic recovery are not necessarily bad for equities," SG said in a note to clients.

"However, at a time when earnings momentum remains weak and the consensus earnings growth estimate is expected to moderate, rising bond yields could be a catalyst for a U.S. equity market correction."
---------
K=Thousands, M=Millions, B=Billions, TTM=Trailing 12 Month, MRQ=Most Recent Quarter, FYR=Fiscal Year End, NM=Not Meaningful, NA=Not Available

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monday

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10:41
I realized that with both initial indicators up and the visual of 1793.25 I could have bought near opening
best rec 1784.50
first est 1789
dir30 upto 1789
open 1788.25

actual 1783.50 at 8:47

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As if the bitcoin craze isn't enough-
From ZeroHedge
"But in order to present readers with a sense of where TWTR's $40 billion market cap, which is greater than 403, or 80%, of all S&P 500 companies, puts in in the context of several companies all of which have a market cap that is lower than Twitter's, we have shown on the chart below Twitter's 2014 projected Revenue compared to this same universe of immediately smaller S&P500 companies. Again, just for the sake of perspective. "
Twitter Now Has A Larger Market Capitalization Than 80% Of All S&P 500 Companies | Zero Hedge

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The economy gained a meager 74,000 jobs last month, the weakest result since early 2011, according to government data released Friday morning.

Also not good: The participation rate in the labor force declined one-fifth of a percentage point to 62.8% in December, matching October’s level, which was the lowest since 1978.

The participation rate is a broad gauge of the labor-market health, showing the workforce’s share of the civilian noninstitutional population. Falling rates means that people are increasingly less likely be in the labor force — not a great sign of economic strength or confidence.
source: MW

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As you may konw I have the 31 Dac 1850 high as the all-time high in the house of cards.

This wil be far far worse than 1929 - but what do the rich f--ks of the Fed care?

Though the thieves will stage dramatic counter rallies... they cannot but the finger in the dike
----
GLTA
GSOA (god save our a__es)
----
Asian stocks tumbled, extending a global selloff, with Japanese and Hong Kong shares dragging the regional index toward its lowest close in five months. Copper headed for its longest run of losses in almost 28 years and Asian bond risk rose.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.2 percent by 11:42 a.m. in Tokyo, the most since June. Japan’s Topix index plunged toward a correction and the Hang Seng Index slid 2.3 percent in Hong Kong. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures rose 0.4 percent after the gauge sank the most since June in New York. Asian credit risk rose to the highest in five months, with Japanese and Australian government bond yields dropping. Copper fell as much as 0.3 percent in London, a 10th straight decline.

U.S. factory-orders data today will add to evidence of a slowdown in manufacturing in the world’s two largest economies, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. About $2.9 trillion has been wiped from global equities this year as slower Chinese growth, cuts to U.S. stimulus and unrest in emerging markets from Thailand to Ukraine spook investors. Australia’s central bank reviews interest rates today.

“Investors should steer clear of risk assets over the short term as the turmoil does not look like it will be over anytime soon,” Mitul Kotecha, head of global markets research for Asia at Credit Agricole CIB wrote in an e-mailed note today. “A combination of tapering, a confluence of country-specific emerging-market country concerns and weaker growth in China provide the backdrop for a volatile few weeks.”
-----------
Asian Stocks Extend Rout With Copper as Credit Risk Rises - Bloomberg

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Schiff: 2/3 of America to Lose
Everything Because of This Crisis

By MONEY MORNING STAFF REPORTS


A record breaking stock market is distorting a frightening reality: The U.S. is being eaten alive by a horrific cancer that will ultimately destroy the economy and impoverish the vast majority of its citizens.

That's according to Peter Schiff, the best-selling author and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, who delivered his harsh warning to investors in a recent interview on Fox Business.

"I think we are heading for a worse economic crisis than we had in 2007," Schiff said. "You're going to have a collapse in the dollar...a huge spike in interest rates... and our whole economy, which is built on the foundation of cheap money, is going to topple when you pull the rug out from under it."

Schiff says that, despite "phony" signs of an economic recovery, the cancer destroying America stems from a lethal concoction of our $16 trillion federal debt and the Fed's never ending money printing.

Currently, Yellen and The Fed are buying nearly $1 trillion of Treasury and mortgage bonds a year. That's about $75 billion per month against a budget deficit that is about the same level.

According to Schiff, these numbers are unsustainable. And the Fed has no credible "exit strategy."

Eventually interest rates will rise... and when they do, Schiff says, stocks will tank and bonds dip to nothing. Massive new tax hikes will be imposed and programs and entitlements will be cut to the bone.
Editor's Note: As a service to our readers, we've arranged a way for you to get a copy of Peter Schiff's best-selling book, The Real Crash: How To Save Yourself And Your Country, for free, including shipping. The book shows in plain language exactly what economic dangers ordinary Americans face right now and how you can protect yourself. Please go here for your free copy.


"The crisis is imminent," Schiff said. "I don't think Obama is going to finish his second term without the bottom dropping out. And stock market investors are oblivious to the problems."

"We're broke, Schiff added. "We owe trillions. Look at our budget deficit; look at the debt to GDP ratio, the unfunded liabilities. If we were in the Eurozone, they would kick us out."

Schiff points out that the market gains experienced recently, with the Dow first topping 17,000 on its way to setting record highs, are giving investors a false sense of security.

"It's not that the stock market is gaining value... it's that our money is losing value. And so if you have a debased currency... a devalued currency, the price of everything goes up. Stocks are no exception," he said.

"The Fed knows that the U.S. economy is not recovering," he noted. "It simply is being kept from collapse by artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing. As that support goes, the economy will implode."
Should American seniors who've been paying taxes their whole lives bear the price of Washington's folly? See the shocking facts by clicking on the video.

A noted economist, Schiff has been a fierce critic of the Fed and its policies for years. And his warnings have proven to be prophetic.

In August 2006, when the Dow was hitting new highs nearly every day, Schiff said in an interview: "The United States is like the Titanic, and I'm here with the lifeboat trying to get people to leave the ship... I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States."

Just over a year later, the meltdown that became the Great Recession began, just as Schiff predicted.

He also predicted the subprime mortgage bubble burst, nearly a year before the real estate market fully crashed.

His recent warnings, however, have been even more alarming. Will they also prove to be true?

In his most recent book, "The Real Crash" How to Save Yourself and Your Country", Schiff writes that when the "real crash" comes," it will be worse than the Great Depression.

Unemployment will skyrocket, credit will dry up, and worse, the dollar will collapse completely, "wiping out all savings and sending consumer prices into the stratosphere."


Schiff estimates this "cancer" could consume a trillion dollars from consumers this year.

"Today we're the world's greatest debtor nation. Companies, homeowners and banks are so highly leveraged, rising interest rates will be devastating."

According to polls, the average American is indeed sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
Is Devastation The Ultimate Cure?

Despite its bleak outlook, Schiff's book has become a real wake-up call for millions of readers.

While Schiff's predictions can be grim, he also offers step-by-step solutions that average Americans can follow to protect their wealth, investments and savings.

According to Schiff, "the crash and what follows" can be beneficial. But only for those who understand beforehand what is happening and have time to prepare for the devastation.

"All we can do now is prepare for the crash," Schiff said. "If we brace ourselves properly and control the impact, we will survive it."
Editor's Note: This sovereign currency and debt crisis is just a small part of the disease that's attacking America from within. When interest rates rise - and they will rise soon - it could cost Americans $1 trillion this year. But it doesn't have to affect you. For a limited time, Money Morning is supplying readers with a free copy of Peter Schiff's new book "The Real Crash" How to Save Yourself and Your Country. Learn the steps you can take to prepare your wealth, investments and way of life for this looming catastrophe. Go here to secure a copy.

Schiff: 2/3 of America to Lose Everything Because of This Crisis

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Market Wizard
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si

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Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,011 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Here's a link to the morning video.

Naturally he promotes his system but I thought it was interesting.
Ukraine or No Ukraine - Are Stocks At A Tipping Point? : MarketClub

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  #500 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,011 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Gold and silver

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