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Trading

  #461 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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@urghan2

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  #462 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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the FOMC breakdown

7:05 PM 6/19/2013

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  #463 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Breakdown


12:09 AM 6/24/2013

Though the close is less than the key level I'd like to give it a few more points
<1576 close to confirm.

Slight bounce to 3/8 level (1600) with the previous high 1597.25 close by.
50% is 1609.50.

breakdown confirmed if a 1576 close on Sept contract 2013-06-24_0007 -

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  #464 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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I made a wonderful video for a week-end summary and then when I hit done, Jing stopped working.
s00 -- taking it as a sign to forget it.

trend is down.
thurs /friday made the retrace top in the 5/8 area (1613) -
so down.
First move on Monday is usually up so a move to 1610 and the down and run the low stops.

Happy Canada Day -all you Canucks out there!!
Go out and celebrate!!

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  #465 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Price banding

I asked IB about entering stop limit orders for a flash crash
They replied that as long as the order is in the price band it will not be rejected.


For the ES it is 6 points
cme page
http://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/GCC+Price+Banding
Futures Price Banding
A Price Band Variation (PBV) is a static value that varies by product. It is symmetrically applied to both the upside (for bids) and downside (for offers) to determine the Price Band Variation Range (PBVR). With each price change the PBVR is recalculated and the new range is applied. The CME Globex platform rejects all bids and offers outside the PBVR.

•During the Pre-Open and the Pre-Open/Non-Cancel period, the contract's Settlement Price is the reference price.
•Once the first Indicative Opening Price (IOP) is calculated, it becomes the reference price.
•During trading hours, the Last Price is the reference price.
•If no IOP or Last Price is established, the Settlement Price remains the reference price until a Last Price is established.
In the event of a market emergency, when a market is placed in a non-trading mode during trading hours, the IOP serves as the reference price during the non-regular Pre-Open and Pre-Open/Non Cancel Period. If no IOP is available, the Last Price is the reference price.

product reference sheet
http://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/display/EPICSANDBOX/GCC+Product+Reference+Sheet

Here is the excel for all products
http://www.cmegroup.com/confluence/download/attachments/32112769/Globex%20Produc...ate=1372362083000&api=v2

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  #466 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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From Launchpad:

"Too much information can sour you mood. Starting your day gorging on newspaper headlines magazines, conference calls, blogs, presentations, TV interviews and trending lists can leave your head sore and you mood foul. In today’s information age “getting better at separating the data wheat from the information chaff” is a critical skill and the consequences of overreacting to each day’s headlines can be financially ruinous. Finding the right balance, ignoring attention seeking headlines and focusing on the data is essential to avoid the emotional roller coaster

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  #467 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Gordian Knot

from Larry Levin email:

Note the massive amounts of cumulative purchases

Fisher divides it by "every man woman and child" yet if we were to divide it by taxpayers we might have 4 times that amount and if people earning more than $100,000 to $150,000 (scaled ceiling) were primarily excluded the number receiving the grant would be about 8 times ==> $90,000 per.

Instead of the money having gone into the coffers of the banks who created this mess imagine if he had been given directly to taxpayers in their RIA from which they could borrow interest free to start or invest in a small business or self-employed business.


Now that would have helped instead of engorging the bloated fat banker pigs of wall street.
Not surprising that the fed is primarily owned by a banking cartel of major USA banks.
(see creature of Jekel (sp?) Island
---------
A few days ago Fed member, and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, gave a speech to the National Association of State Retirement Administrators. Its title was "Horseshift! (With Reference to Gordian Knots). It is a rather amazing piece of truth from someone inside the FOMC and the title is amazing. The entire speech can be found here Horseshift! (With Reference to Gordian Knots) - Dallas Fed

The phrase "Gordian Knot" is used to describe a problem that is so exceedingly complicated that it results in a deadlock for all parties. One way to solve a Gordian Knot problem, however, would be to cheat as legend has it Alexander the Great did by cutting the knot rather than solving the riddle of it.

Mr. Fisher believes that the Fed has gotten itself into a Gordian Knot, of which there may be no escape. A few excerpts follow...

This later program is referred to as quantitative easing, or QE, by the public and as large-scale asset purchases, or LSAPs, internally at the Fed. As a result of LSAPs conducted over three stages of QE, the Fed’s System Open Market Account now holds $2 trillion of Treasury securities and $1.3 trillion of agency and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Since last fall, when we initiated the third stage of QE, we have regularly been purchasing $45 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion a month in MBS, meanwhile reinvesting the proceeds from the paydowns of our mortgage-based investments. The result is that our balance sheet has ballooned to more than $3.5 trillion.That’s $3.5 trillion, or $11,300 for every man, woman and child residing in the United States.

The Challenge of Untying the Monetary Gordian Knot

The challenge now facing the FOMC is that of deciding when to begin dialing back (or as the financial press is fond of reporting: “tapering”) the amount of additional security purchases. In his press conference following our June FOMC meeting, speaking on behalf of the Committee, Chairman Bernanke made clear the parameters for dialing back and eventually ending the QE program. Should the economy continue to improve along the lines then envisioned by Committee, the market could anticipate our slowing the rate of purchases later this year, with an eye toward curtailing new purchases as the unemployment rate broaches 7 percent and prospects for solid job gains remain promising.

This is a delicate moment. The Fed has created a monetary Gordian Knot. You can see the developing complexity of that knot in this sequence of slides tracing the change in our portfolio structure with each phase of QE.

Fed president Fisher then describes in detail the kind of QE purchases and amounts in detail then says: The point is: We own a significant slice of these critical markets. This is, indeed, something of a Gordian Knot.

There is no Alexander to simply slice the complex knot that we have created with our rounds of QE. Instead, when the right time comes, we must carefully remove the program's pole pin and gingerly unwind it so as not to prompt market havoc. For starters though, we need to stop building upon the knot. For this reason, I have advocated that we socialize the idea of the inevitability of our dialing back and eventually ending our LSAPs. In June, I argued for the Chairman to signal this possibility at his last press conference and at last week’s meeting suggested that we should gird our loins to make our first move this fall. We shall see if that recommendation obtains with the majority of the Committee.

And if that was "truthy" enough, he also said the following, which I find simply amazing. You will NEVER hear Chairman MaoNanke say this: Counteracting whatever benefits one can trace to the Fed’s unorthodox policies are some obvious costs. First, savers and others who rely on retirement monies invested in short-maturity fixed-income investments, such as bank CDs and Treasury bills, have seen their income evaporate while the rich and the quick, the big money players of Wall Street have become richer still.

Second, the standard return assumptions of 7.5 to 8 percent for retirement pools, as you well know, have been dashed (though I have always felt they were already calculated on an imaginary and politically convenient basis rather than a realistic one).
Now - will anyone else at the Fed have the guts to stand with Mr. Fisher and end the madness?
---Larry Levin

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  #468 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,984 since Dec 2010
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a reply from Q and A for los cost forex

Sierra Chart also works with LMAX, which has a minimum position size of 1.000 units (so no 25k units for IDEALPRO), smaller slippage (no minimum tick size of 0.5 pip as with IB), and with a commission of 0.0025% of notional trade value (so no minimum $2.50).

Sierra Chart's implementation of the LMAX connection uses the FIX API however, which means you'll have monthly account minimums (in terms of volume and account size), or else pay the API fee.

An alternative, also since you mention you only trade two instruments, would be MultiCharts .NET Starter Edition (which is free): more professional than MT4, and uses the other API version (so no monthly minimums).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #469 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,984 since Dec 2010
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no guts no glory

Today's trade I didn't take.
est low 1694
(stuuf at the top is last night with special alert of buy yesterday's low
notice RLP low est 1694 and visual 1692)
actual 1693.25
Arg!!!

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  #470 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,984 since Dec 2010
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think through the OCA


I want either buy 1701.25 and then sell it at 1708.25
or
sell 1708.25 and buy it (close the short trade) at 1701.25

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