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Trading

  #401 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
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Here is a snap of a new program I have downloaded.
It lets you share screens and voice and has a whiteboard feature where you can draw in your charts

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  #402 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,076 given, 1,605 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Chart patterns

In discussions with a friend today we were talking about chart patterns. Both he and I noticed the narrowing ranges each day. I then shared with him this 30 min chart. It shows a triangle.

In classical theory if it breaks out of the triangle too late very close to the apex it can just dribble out. Earlier though, it is an energy formation like a tightening spring. When it breaks out either way you go with it. Breaking out to the upside means the bulls won and to the downside the bears.

Each pattern has a different reliability and must also be considered in terms of the larger time frame context - which can alter the meaning and the implication. Not all patterns have measurements - some are only direction.

A triangle is a fairly low reliability and has no accepted measurement. For fun I have added my own measurement.
I have T1=1506.50 and T2=1503.

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Within a larger context I have included another measurement the 50% level. It gives a target of 1500.50.
T3=1500.50

I like the latter target as it works better with the feel of the previous highs.

Chart patterns take practice, judgement and experience - hard work. The reason that most new traders (i.e started in the last 25 years) look upon them with askance. They prefer to get lost in a sea of indicators, ego puffing pontification and a maze of statistics. They become the food of the algos.

Statistical analysis cannot rate a chart pattern reliability -for the reasons mentioned above- judgement, larger context and multiple methods. However, it soothes the minds of those who hate work and judgement.
A palette and a paint brush can create a masterpiece in the hands of an artist. The results in the hands a those with closed minds and no desire to practice - nothing but a mess.

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  #403 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
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Pre open review for Thursday 14 Feb ES


2013-02-14_0819 - aquarian_ian's library

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  #404 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
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In the video you saw me select the 1511.25 and the 1519 from the Premarketinfo lads choices.
So far 1511 @8:33
and
1519.25 @12:12

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  #405 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
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thursday 21 Feb 2013

Five minute chart

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  #406 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
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choppy friday

Friday 22 Feb 2013
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  #407 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,076 given, 1,605 received
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tuesday 26 feb

Fiddlesticks

originally had a high est at 1497.50 then moved it up 1499.25 so my HZ is too high and missed the FE=HE
(still upset about missing yesterday.)

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  #408 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,076 given, 1,605 received
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tuesday 26 feb V day

results for Tuesday
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  #409 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,076 given, 1,605 received
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2007 versus today

From Larry's email

Just last week the market was near its all-time highs, the Dow being only a few points from its highest close of 2007.

I know that the markets are not rational and do not follow that line of thinking, but let’s play that game anyway. If the market is nearing 2007 highs, shouldn’t it follow that today’s economic news are as good as 2007’s? That would be reasonable, but the market just doesn’t work like that – especially when it is being rigged by the world’s central bankers.

How long can the following (close estimates) hold up?

Silver: Oct. 2007=$13, last week =$30
Gold: Oct 2007=$760, last week = $1,620
Reported Unemployment: Oct 2007 = 4.7%, today = 7.9%
Case-Shiller Home Index: Oct 2007 = 190.9, today = 144.9
New Home Sales: 2007 = 774K, 2012 = 367K
Housing Units Built: 2007 = 1,500K, 2012 = 651K
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet: Oct 2007 = $873B, today = $3.11T
Food Stamp Recipients: Dec 2007 = 28.7M, today = 48.2M
Federal Spending, Annual Rate: 2007 = $2.7T, today = $3.6T
Fed Tax Revenues, Annual: 2007 = $2.5T, today = $2.4T
Retail Gasoline Price: 2007=$2.84/gal, 2013 = $4.19/gal (Chicago)
Money Supply: Oct 2007 = $851.6B, today = $2.76 Trillion
Personal Bankruptcies: 2007 = 801K (75% up from 2006), 2012 = 1.25 million
Foreclosures: 2007 = 405k (40% up from 2006), 2012 = 742K

Although the market dipped a little last week, none of this seems to matter. As long as the Fed keeps printing and we all have “faith,” it will go up forever. What’s more, the sequester D-Day is this Friday and this time around it seems to not matter at all.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."
---Larry Levin

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  #410 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,988 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,076 given, 1,605 received
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Account sweep at IB


Today I learned of accounts and sweeping.

Apparently if you try to place a trade and your net liquid assets show enough money you may not have enough as some might be sitting in your commodities account. So you have to sweep the funds from the commodities account to the securities accounts - (so it's all in one place???)

To do:
Manage Account > Settings > Configure Account > Excess Funds Sweep
select: Sweep excess funds into my IB securities account
and push sweep button




--- Here's the IB blurb on it---
Excess Funds Sweep

Your Interactive Brokers Universal Account is authorized to trade securities products, commodities/futures products and Foreign Exchange ("forex") transactions and therefore consists of two underlying accounts, a securities account governed by rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and a futures account governed by rules of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Whether you have assets in an IB securities account or in an IB futures account, your assets are protected by U.S. federal regulations governing how brokers like IB must protect your property and funds. In the IB securities account, your assets are protected by SEC and SIPC rules (Note: foreign currency is protected to the extent used to purchase securities). In the IB futures account, your assets are protected by CFTC rules requiring segregation of customer funds. You are also protected by IB's strong financial position and our conservative risk management philosophy. See IB's Strength & Security page.

As part of the IB Universal Account service, you have authorized IB to automatically transfer funds as necessary between your IB securities account and your IB futures account in order to satisfy margin requirements in either account.
Note:
All IB customer deposits are initially received into the IB securities account and will remain in that account unless you choose commodities sweep below.
Selecting "securities" sweep below is strongly recommended for any customer identified as a securities pattern day trader.
Regardless of your choice, IB will generally keep a small buffer of excess margin funds in each account in order to prevent excessive transfers back and forth as your margined securities and futures positions fluctuate in value.

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