This morning from Briefing.com (edited)
"9:05amMeanwhile, Germany's DAX is currently down 1.0% so that it is pace for its fourth straight loss. German bourse is trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than a month. Slide has been led by RWE AG and Allianz (AZ), which reported a gain in fourth quarter profit and announced to raise its dividend. Siemens (SI) has provided some broad market support, as has BASF, which reported a sharp rise in fourth quarter income. Higher oil prices have also helped BP Plc (BP), which has joined fellow natural resource plays BG Group, BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American to provide support to Britain's FTSE. FTSE is down 0.2% with weakness in HSBC (HBC), British American Tobacco, Vodafone (VOD), and Rio Tinto (RIO)."
After my morning rush of data collection etc, I had my orders in and my alert set. The first key time was about 8:39 and though they moved it up it did not have the usually spikey look of a first end. I think I had in my mind it would be an upslash day or perhaps checkdown. In any case the lower edge of the HZ was 1310.25 and est high at 1311.75. (i'm not quite sure how I ended up this this as a quick hand estimate had the high at1308). It got above the SA line of 1305.75 and made a high at 1310@9:21.
Well 1310 is one tick below my alarm setting of 1310.25 and the alarm did go off. Also they only ran the TICK to +800 area. At this point I wrote:
"Don't be in a rush. They could bounce it around all day. No need for them to do anything. Low stops taken out in o/n session and high stops at 1308 just done. TICK has been to +800 - might not be a spikey top just a slow roll-over.'
Well the day was quite unusual. Very zig-zaggy action. Low at 1292.50 @ 12:57 and then up to 1308.50 at 14:33.
nearly closing time ... back to work
This was an unusual day. We had a gap up of +5 and then a narrow range of 9.75.
Also we had a double top at exactly 1329. What makes this interesting is that usually if they are making a double top the second top will be a bit higher than the first to take out the stops above the 1329 of 9:31am.
This is like money in the bank to them. If they don't take them out in the o/n session and if the open is reasonably strong (say greater than 1328.50) then we would expect them to run them tomorrow. Preliminary estimates of tomorrow high reflect this.
FE= FE=? --- this means the spreadsheet didn't know
SELL/B @ 09:13 -- 9:23 was the actual time
510 Rule= 9:11
PT Rule= 08:54
FEa= 08:33 --- This was fine correct time was 8:31
FEb= 09:13 RTH low 13:42 --- New formula today actual was 13:04 (I'll leave it for a few days before modifying)
Dir30= up to 1327.00 ----was fine but i got up late and so this may not be valid
Dir = +1. today the dif open to close (today) was 2.75--if it is <4.25 then that =0 -- so Dir = +1 is wrong
Mid chg= 1 9.25 =change in midpts yest to today --if it is <4.25=0 -- correct as +9.25 > 4.25 =>correct.
FEa= 1323.25 --- FEa was 1322.75
FEb= 1328.50 --- FEb was 1329
(Explanation: on some days, as today, there is a double first end.
The first end is defined as the high or the low of the day happening between 8:30 and 10:30am CT. Today we had a double first end. I have this notation because buying at 1322.75 @8:31 and selling at 1329 @ 9;23 =+6.75 ( which is >5 points the minimum points profit potential, I will take on a trade) and allows more room for error on the buystop.
The buystop is maximum 5pts. Today it was at 1331.25 and the lowest I would have sold is the bottom of the High zone ie 1326.75 = 4.5pts potential loss to buystop. If I had some of the +6.75 potential of FEa to FEb and if my estimate of the high was wrong and I get stopped out then that offsets the loss. Hence the reason for the FEa and FEb.)
FE= 1329.00 @ 09:23
Estimated Rng: Mech= 15.75, H-L= 15.00
Actual Rng = 9.75
So in this case the est of the range is was way off. This sometimes happens on a gap up days like today. The difference of yest close to today's open was +5.00.
I need to improve my mechanical estimation of the range (above 15.75). Currently, it is influenced by the 3day ATR and the 3d ma of the range (which were 18.0 and 15.50 respectively). I need to make some adjustments so that if other indications are for a range contraction or expansion I leave these out of the mechanical estimate calculation. Today a range estimate called "yest/avg 5d" was 10.75 - not 9.75 but closer.
Trades: none - got up late today. and when there is a cabbage signal and the est range is not WR then no trading is indicated.
Bottom Line - If I had of traded today the high zone was great (see graph) the trick would have been to close out at the low of 1319.25 with my range estimate so far off. It is very unlikely I would have reversed and gone long.
Last edited by aquarian1; February 28th, 2011 at 07:04 PM.
With 14hr workdays I felt I barely had enough time to breathe.
I know that, for me, my body needs a solid 8:30 hours sleep and works better with more.
I wasn't getting my sleep and by Friday I was exhausted.
Saturday and Sunday instead of rest were work catch-up.
Yesterday, after work, I went to the health food store to buy a couple of things.
The young lady serving me, added a complimentary copy of the Alive magazine to my carrywith grocery bag. She pointed at the cover and said:
"See.. Men's Health", emphasizing the word "men's".
My neighour, Jim had had some problems with dry scalp and I had urged him to get a filter for the shower that takes out the chlorine (and lead) from the water. This had me digging out health books for him, which in turn got me thinking about health and how I had neglected mine.
As men, (not retired old fuddy-duddies, but those still with the bit between our teeth) we tend to work ourselves too hard. Society's pressure to earn money and achieve driving us relentlessly.
Yet we know in our heart of hearts, health is number one.
Money and success are of no value without our health.
I have resolved to work less hours, get more sleep and restart my exercise program.
If I don't get all my work done - then I don't get it done.
I found out that all/most(?) of the vitamins and supplements I had been taking over the years contain magnesium stearate "(lubricant)".Note: magnesium stearate is also called stearic acid!
Turns out this is a toxic oil they had to supplement formula to allow them to run the machines faster. Sometimes listed and sometimes not.
This information was very depressing to me. I already spend far more than most people on these items than most people and now instead of buying them at the drugstore I would have to go to the health food store and pay even more for them!
I'm not what I'm going to do. I guess I must:
find ways to make my work hours more productive,
reduce and simplify my work and data collection,
and perhaps schedule only trading 4 or 3 days a week instead of 5.
I know I must make changes.
Today I was tired when the alarm went off (in bed too late and not a good sleep),
so I just turned it off, rolled-over, and went back to sleep.
If some of this resonates with you I hope it encourages you to make the changes you need in your life and restore health and fitness to the number one spot in your life priorities.
I'm glad that you have come to this realization. Money and success are nothing without health. I wish my husband would realize that too
I'm pretty sure I know the health food store you went into and they are very good there. I know it costs a little more for what you need but the advice is invaluable.
Seeing as you like to do reasearch (or so it seems to me) perhaps look into a vegan diet. I started eating about 90% vegan 2 months ago (not for health reasons but, I won't get into that here.... lol) and since then I have read so many wonderful things about what it can do for your body. Actually reversing alot of ailments and perhaps reducing the amount of supplements you need. And it's alot cheaper to eat this way too.
Anyways, take care, and thanks for keeping up your journal with so many other things on your plate.
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