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  #301 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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https://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/83836263/or/630646449/name/March+27+trade+setup.png

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  #302 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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The setup to buy at 635.25
_._,_.___

1 of 1 Photo(s)

March 27

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  #303 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tuesday 27 March 2012

7:42
Didn't get to bed on time but did get up with the alarm and I'm struggling to keep my eyes open. The ES o/n high of 1419.50 around 4amCT and now it has fallen below the the 2:25am low of 1413.25 to 1412. (Most likely this will the days range LOL! ie. 1407.75 to 1415.25)

8:09
est High 1416.25
est low 1407.00
Estimated open 1413

8:14 coffee & washroom break

8:28 Doesn't look like much direction for FE. I'm guessing FE=LE = 1407.75 to 1406.75

8:33 Open 1412.75

8:40 Took a look at ZC. Testing the 637.25 - could break, could bounce. I'm staying on the sidelines.

9:32 Well as expected a real sleeper. 1414-1410.75 or 3.25pt in the first hour!. Narrow, listless and choppy - wow glad I got up for this! LOL.

9:59 ZCMay2012: So far we have L635.50 on the 5 minute with low tails.
ZC 2012-03-27_1007 - aquarian_ian's library

10:37 chased it up. bot ZC at 638.50 (10:37)

10:46 ES has only made it as low as 1410 by 9:55am. At this snails pace it could take til 11:30 to reach the estimate FE=LE. With that little trending it could turn into a "lazy L" day.

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  #304 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wednesday 28 March 2012

11:33 Stayed up late working and couldn't get up til 6:30am PT (3 hrs after my alarm.). After a little bounce to 50% retrace (H1408.75@8:40) the market has worked lower and has been to L1392.75. Had my breakfast and a coffee. Feeling the end-of-month blues along with family prbs. Hard to have any gusto for this morning - grey day.

One thing I have realized is that I must be very careful with my time if I am going to resurect my old system. I just need to keep going.

This morning in the shower I recalled a bit from Norman Vincent Peele. It was about problems and difficulties. Quoting one fellow "If I don't have any difficulties in life then I get worried. 'don't you trust me anymore Lord?' - the idea that God only gives us challenges we can handle and with his help and hard work and persistence and faith in His help we can overcome all "difficulties". And so we grow spiritually and in character.

Re-reading that section of the book, a bit further on I found the story of a successful executive who had 3 trays on his desk, incoming, outgoing and a third, "with God all things are possible". (Matthew 19:26). The third tray was for all matters to which he had not yet determined a solution. These matters were to be held in prayerful thinking.'I surround the problems in that box with the magic of believing and the results are amazing."

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  #305 (permalink)
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You're screenshots are a little small.

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  #306 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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craig1928 View Post
You're screenshots are a little small.

Hi Craig,

Yes! LOL - that was an experiment. You have to click on the link below - for that one.
(you must be new to this journal as the prior ones are full size - but I appreciate you pointing it out!)

On this one (below) if you use the link then you would use the little words on top (large, original), but I've included a copy of the image below the anchor for you.

Perhaps the lower Keltner offers a target at 1369.25 for ES

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  #307 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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12:53 Stayed up late working and didn't get up til 9:30am PT (6 hrs after my alarm.). I checked the screen a few minutes before open and left the buy to close at 1387.75 - for the March Madness journal

Though its not money in my pocket it felt good that I stayed with my estimate of last night rather than move it up.

This morning in the shower the title of a movie (with Sandra Bullock) came to mind, "While you were sleeping." -its about how she falls in love with the working class brother while the pretty boy brother is in a coma (she had saved his life from a commuter train and she pretended she was his financee).

That's how I feel about this market, ("While you were sleeping."). It is almost back to its 2007 Oct highs of 1576 - with 1415.50 on Monday. Through constant money printing and mortaging the future of generations of Americans yet unborn with 15.5 trillion in debt (+5 trillion in the last 5 years alone), a huge bubble of inflated stock prices, with APPL the cheerleader, has suspended reality.

It's like a crazy dream where we are rushing to a incredible crisis to meet the Mayan 2012 timetable. Everywhere it seems things are falling apart on the inside while maintaining a facade on the exterior - a hollow shell where the skin of the apple is shiny and red and the core is blackened and riddled with worms.

Corruption, greed, lack of morals and principles, no concern for doing a job well or being professional or ethical and everyone walking unconcernedly asleep.


Ah well.

Stay positive.

Look for the good.

... and back to work! LoL

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  #308 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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long term
(dates flipped on first chart notation ie low in 2002 and high in 2007)

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  #309 (permalink)
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Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

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  #310 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From Larry Levin today:

Still to Big to Fail

While the sobering news from Europe has finally started to weigh on US stocks, I thought I’d add gasoline to the fire and remind everyone of the twisted morass that’s our own domestic financial situation.

The top 5 banks in the US now account for a massively disproportionate amount of the derivative risk in the financial system. Specifically, of the $250 trillion in gross notional amount of derivative contracts outstanding (consisting of Interest Rate, FX, Equity Contracts, Commodity and CDS) among the Top 25 commercial banks (a number that swells to $333 trillion when looking at the Top 25 Bank Holding Companies), a mere 5 account for 95.9% of all derivative exposure.

The top 4 banks: JPM with $78.1 trillion in exposure, Citi with $56 trillion, Bank of America with $53 trillion and Goldman with $48 trillion, account for 94.4% of total exposure. As historically has been the case, the bulk of consolidated exposure is in Interest Rate swaps ($204.6 trillion), followed by FX ($26.5TR), CDS ($15.2 trillion), and Equity and Commodity with $1.6 and $1.4 trillion, respectively.

And that's your definition of Too Big To Fail right there: the biggest banks are not only getting bigger, but their risk exposure is now at a new all-time-high.

Good thing Backstop Ben and Congress are always ready with their catcher’s mitt.

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  #311 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
Questions from Mike

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

I have discontinued posting in this journal on a regular basis and started a new one for the contest period.

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

It takes too much time.
There has been no useful feedback


C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

yes. forum trolls

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

Overall negative. At times it was useful to have a record with time and date on it in public to remind me when I was incorrect. This helps guard against over-confidence.

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

On the most part, for many people yes.

It they lack discipline then requiring of themselves regular postings of a set format is good practice in following through.
If they lack clarity of thinking or clarity of trading rules, then yes.
If their trading method and their personalities are ameniable to outside suggestions, then yes.
If they are doing it for ego or for wasting their time then no.

If they are keeping a journal privately( but not posting it) some of the benefits are there but sharing ideas and receiving ideas is lost.

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  #312 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Profile of a Terrorist


Hair: curly locks
Clothing: Bulky undergarments (claims they were diapers!)
MO : Talks in baby talk to confuse TSA
Case nailed: High level computer security database - vetted by (we can't tell you that's classified)
Age: 18 months




Go big TSA and spend the dough. Hire a 10 year old to do your programming!
What would have happened if she was 18 years old - strip search by the TSA boz?

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  #313 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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(---Interesting yest Larry posts on derivative exposure and today....)

Banks lead Wall Street lower on JPMorgan loss
AP - 9 mins ago

In this May 3, 2012, photo, trader Matthias Roberts, center, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Street headed for a lower opening Friday May 11, 2012. Dow Jones industrial...
Related Stocks
C - Citigroup Inc.
Sym Last Chg Pct
C 29.24 -1.41 -4.60%
BAC 7.45 -0.25 -3.25%
JPM 37.06 -3.68 -9.03%
MS 14.73 -0.87 -5.58%

NEW YORK (AP) — Financial stocks are leading the market lower in early trading after JPMorgan disclosed a huge trading loss.

The bank reported a $2 billion loss at a London trading unit after the close of markets Thursday. JPMorgan is down nearly 9 percent in the first minutes of trading.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 70 points to 12,785 shortly after the opening bell Friday. The Standard & Poor's 500 is down four points at 1,353.

The Nasdaq composite, which mainly follows technology stocks, edged up two points to 2,936.

The news of huge losses at the largest bank in the U.S. pulled down other financial stocks. Morgan Stanley fell nearly 5 percent. Goldman Sachs is down 4 percent.

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  #314 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From Larry:

JPM

JP Morgan (JPM) is supposed to be the safest bank on the planet. In a speech less than a year ago, CEO Jamie Dimon claimed JPM had a “fortress balance sheet.”

"We maintained our fortress balance sheet, ending the second quarter with a Basel I Tier 1 Common ratio of 10.1%. Our strong and growing capital base enabled us to buy back $3.5 billion of stock during the second quarter, and we will continue to buy back stock opportunistically."

Not so much. Yesterday we saw what happens when a bankster is forced to tell the truth. JPM shares are being monkey-hammered 5% lower as I type this.

In it’s just filed 10-Q report JPM admits the following…

In Corporate, within the Corporate/Private Equity segment, net income (excluding Private Equity results and litigation expense) for the second quarter is currently estimated to be a loss of approximately $800 million. (Prior guidance for Corporate quarterly net income (excluding Private Equity results, litigation expense and nonrecurring significant items) was approximately $200 million.) Actual second quarter results could be substantially different from the current estimate and will depend on market levels and portfolio actions related to investments held by the Chief Investment Office (CIO), as well as other activities in Corporate during the remainder of the quarter.

Since March 31, 2012, CIO has had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio, and this portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the Firm previously believed. The losses in CIO's synthetic credit portfolio have been partially offset by realized gains from sales, predominantly of credit-related positions, in CIO's AFS securities portfolio. As of March 31, 2012, the value of CIO's total AFS securities portfolio exceeded its cost by approximately $8 billion. Since then, this portfolio (inclusive of the realized gains in the second quarter to date) has appreciated in value.

The Firm is currently repositioning CIO's synthetic credit portfolio, which it is doing in conjunction with its assessment of the Firm's overall credit exposure. As this repositioning is being effected in a manner designed to maximize economic value, CIO may hold certain of its current synthetic credit positions for the longer term.

Accordingly, net income in Corporate likely will be more volatile in future periods than it has been in the past.

This probably won’t go over well in the markets on Friday. Then again, CEO Jamie Dimon will probably arrange for “special help” from the Fed before the open, or perhaps a call to a certain large investor in Omaha?

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

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  #315 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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[me: How can this not be called theft in a day of minute to minute balancing of a bank account/
The second you withdraw $500 from your bank account it shows on the balance. ]
-----
From Larry on Thurs:


With Spain now falling apart, the Eurocurrency slipped below the dreaded 1.3000 level that always brings out central bank buying. By the way, unlike in the US where Ben Bernanke lies about OVERT manipulation of markets (other than the Treasury market which he believes is his duty) other central banks like that of China and Switzerland freely admit to buying Euros for the sole purpose of manipulating the market (for their own ends, of course). So with the conflagration restarting in Spain, Greece, and Italy – the central bankers supported (read: manipulated) the currency markets to keep it seriously falling through 1.3000.

A large bank in Spain was recently audited and found to have vastly overstated the amount of money in has in customer accounts. Although depositors believed it was there – it isn’t. The funds have “vaporized” a-la John Corzine. Perhaps we should call it being “Corzined?” What’s missing? $3,500,000,000.00

A story about this translated by Google reads, “The shareholders of Bankia know in the coming days that bank accounts are overstated. This was unveiled today the online edition of The World that uncovers the traditional audit Bankia, Deloitte, has detected that the accounts of 2011 in the matrix of the group are inflated.

Sources have confirmed to elmundo.es Bankia that the auditor has filed a dissent in an overstatement of accounts Financial Savings Bank (BFA).

This is the Bankia matrix consisting mainly of Bancaja and Caja Madrid and in 2010 received a loan from the not yet returned by value of 4,500 million euros.

"These sources confirmed a report in the newspaper El País notes that the overvaluation would be 3,500 million, an amount that is considered impossible to obtain immediately by the financial institution without outside help," according to The Mundo.es.

The Deloitte report has not been made ​​public, although the accounts were presented on Friday the market.

A study by Swiss bank UBS has had access to elmundo.es, notes that BFA was not only participating in Bankia overvalued by at least 70% above market value, but also several portfolio companies.”

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  #316 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tables test

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  #317 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Looks like 1289 to 1287 are possible

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  #318 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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This ETF trades in Toronto

HOD.TO Basic Chart | Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude O Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Good break-out
Perhaps buy at pull-back to $5.50?


see also:
HGD.TO Basic Chart | Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Glbl Stock - Yahoo! Finance

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  #319 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Yahoo! Groups

NY cotton ends up in rebound from 2-1/4-year low14 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters

* July and December hold above Thursday's low * Market takes respite on end-of-week short-covering May 18 (Reuters) - Cotton futures closed higher Friday on speculative short-covering in a rebound from ending at a 2-1/4-year low in the previous session, with analysts saying the euro zone debt crisis could dictate direction next week.
....

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Market Wizard
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Re: Friday May 18, 2012

Wrap-up Friday,

Today we realized 1289.75 low. TO THE TICK!
Love it when a plan comes together!



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  #321 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Table of RTH ES data

(Note the "next target" isn't really that, it's just a +30pt reminder to me)

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Market Wizard
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We are each a unique piece of the jigsaw puzzle that fits perfectly into Life. We do not have to justify ourselves or explain ourselves or be other than we are, for what we are doing is perfect for our evolution. We cannot judge ourselves or judge another person, for we never know where they are on their pathway.

We can love ourselves. We can awaken to love and allow ourselves to live in the place of joy where the positive changes happen automatically. We are perfect just the way we are.

Every one of us has an enormous well of love within, and when we allow it to come forth, it flows out of us. It is an endless supply. Think of everyone that you have met today or think of people who are special to you. Let the love flow out from your heart to these people. Feel your heart opening right now. And even if it is open, let it open more.

Remember, the heart works in two ways. You not only give it out, but you get it back. Let the love come in. Let yourself feel full. Move it in your mind, from heart to heart, from hand to hand. As it goes 'round and 'round and 'round, feel this circle of love.

Say to yourself every morning when you get up: Today I give love, and today I receive love. Let this be the fire that you carry in your heart. And so it is.

Love,
L Hay.


When we blame another, we give our power away because we're placing the responsibility for our feelings on someone else. People in our lives may behave in ways that trigger uncomfortable responses in us. However, they didn't get into our minds and create the buttons that have been pushed. Taking responsibility for our own feelings and reactions is mastering our "ability to respond." In other words, we learn to consciously choose rather than simply react.

We can't talk about resentment without also talking about forgiveness. Forgiving someone doesn't mean that we condone their behavior. The act of forgiveness takes place in our own mind. It really has nothing to do with the other person. The reality of true forgiveness lies in setting ourselves free from holding on to the pain. It's simply an act of releasing ourselves from the negative energy.

Forgiveness doesn't mean allowing the painful behaviors or actions of another to continue in your life. Sometimes, forgiveness means letting go. You forgive them and release them. Taking a stand and setting healthy boundaries are often the most loving things you can do—not only for yourself, but for the other person as well.

I truly believe that there are no mistakes. When our hearts are closed and we feel resentment and anger and sadness, it's hard to see anything good. Yet when our hearts are open, it's as if so much of that negativity disappears and we're able to release these old thoughts and reawaken to joy. For each of us, there's always joy inside. And we need to know how very perfect we are as we are.

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Your Color: Yellow
Your Gemstone: Topaz
Your Keyword: Enjoyment

What's In Store:
This is your year for fun. That which you started two years ago is now beginning to come to life. Believe in yourself. All is well and you feel it. Love is everywhere. It's a time for friends and doing things you enjoy. The influence this year is social and artistic. Entertain and go to parties and gatherings. Take vacations and holidays. Express yourself creatively as much as possible. Laugh and smile and sing and dance and spread sunshine all around you.

Your Affirmation:
I love life and the joy of living.

What is Your Personal Year Vibration?
Here's how to figure out your personal year. The Universal Year (2 + 0 + 1 + 2) is 5. Add your own Birth Month and Birthday Day to the Universal Year. If your birthday is September 5, you add 9 (for September) + 5 (for day) + 5 for the Universal Year. (In numerology, we keep reducing numbers until we have a single digit.) Total 19. Add 1 + 9 = 10. Add 1 + 0 = 1. Your Personal Year is 1.

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The Buddha has been a symbol of wisdom and enlightenment for centuries. People often place statues and paintings in their homes to help create a feeling of peacefulness and serenity, or to create a space for meditation.

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Let's say we exit from a trade before we should have.

We can make no change and tell ourselves it was just our fear of seeing a profitable trade go sour, our fear of yet another loss. That may be true - but it does little in the way of solving our response so we don't bail again too early.

Or we can ask ourselves some questions and see if steps can be taken to avoid the repetition of the mistake.

Why did we bail when we did?
- "Well the price was approaching my slower MA and that is my early warning to exit because it is reversing on me."

How did you pick the period of your MA?
- "I don't recall, I think it was an article about crossdowns and selling against retracement and crossups and buying on a pullback.

So you are using crossing MAs for both an entry signal and retracement exit "this trade has gone bad"?
- "yes"


And you exited on a retracement with entry signal MAs?
- "yes"

Do you think you would have exited if the price has not reached the slower MA which was your "the trade is going bad I should exit" level?
- "No. I wouldn't have. it was the emotion of seeing the price bars kissing the line and fearing the loss that got me out. If the price hadn't reached that level the visual response of fear of failure would not have been triggered nor the emotional cascade that lead to early entry."

Have you played with the effect of different periods and different types of Mas (SMA, WMA, EMA) to see which would lead to the best signal of "this trade has gone sour" (=retraced to much too quickly) versus "its still ok this is just a pullback and the second leg is coming."?
- No. I haven't. So your suggesting I explore using a different MA for the "this trade has gone sour". That is use the right tool for the right job - one tool for entry and one for trade gone bad - and that if I am open to working with other mas such as SMA or WMA instead of being locked into only EMAs and looking for the right period of the Ma to match my instrument and trading time-frame that I could easily find a better tool for job 2 -(when to exit a retracment.?

Yes.

--What about exiting at the full maturity of the trade?

Usually a mesurement or estimation of a target is important.

-- such as?

Equal legs is one. (AB = CD)

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A journal can be a place to keep thoughts as we go along.

Perhaps something happen in our day to prompt and idea or a path of future exploration.

By making a note of it we can honour the idea with its recognition. Making a note isn't about another person the event of article or whatever triggered the thought, it is about the thought itself and how it might be useful to us in our trading.

It not about the other person - your journal is for you.

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The B-List




It’s just another day in the new financial-bizzaro world where any little piece of data may move the markets. Forget imploding Europe or mounting debt levels, the market “reportedly” went higher on a better than expected ISM Non-Mfg number.

You may ask, what the heck is the ISM Non-Mfg number anyways? It’s a gauge of new business orders from the Institute for Supply Management. Think of it as the “B list” of economic data reports, akin to the aging celebrity who appears on the late-night cable movie…or those on The Apprentice: you’re fired!

Anyways, the non-manufacturing ISM index edged up to 53.7 in May from 53.5 in April, a touch above economists' forecast. And woo-hoo, we got a small broad market rally because of a surprise 0.2% jump, as opposed to a flat reading from the Betty White of economic data.

The real reason for the rally may be just another day of “hope springs eternal.” Until Ben or his ECB cronies make any pronouncements, we still have the prospect of LTRO3, or QE3, or some crazy combination of both on the near term economic horizon.

No worries – it’s coming.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

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I have come off of ten days of being sick (sore throat, coughing etc.)

Last night I just finished "the Power of Positive Thinking" by NV Peale. He concluded the book with a chapter "How to Draw on that Higher Power." One of the people who had turned to him for help he doubted would be able to
" simple faith enough to open the sources of power according to the techniques of Christianity". ( Horace was a distinguished figure in music and artistic circles.) However Horace and his wife's need for healing was so great he was able to; - "Seldom have I seen two people become more gloriously childlike in their and whose trust was more complete."

You will understand the word here "childlike" is not a put down but very much and essential asset, "for unless you enter the kingdom of god as a child you shall not enter."

So connecting the dots to trading, or any other challenge in our mundane lives - we see the dilemma for those who worship (exhault) their own ego above God - "Have no other gods before me."
In early times this might have been in reference to a golden cow - but now it is science, doctors etc.


This I see is the downfall of the modern man who since WWII has placed science as their god and they worship the high priests of science -- the Phds, the experts and so on. If science, statisticians, engineers and so on say something is cannot be done, well then they believe that to be the Truth. They separate their mundane lives from their spiritual lives and keep the spiritual lives in a definite second, or lower place.

To draw on the higher power you need a simplicity of a faith (to open the channel to the power).

So for traders, then, here lies the rub. To draw upon the higher power, to draw upon your intuitive self, you need to quiet the babbling "monkey mind". You need to:
be open to their being a solution and
belief that if you ask for a solution to your problem it shall be delivered in accordance with your faith.

("Ask for anything truly believing it shall be delivered unto you and it shall be done.")

Many traders feel the only way is through higher and higher levels of "sophistication". so if it isn't a fourth derivative intrapolative, Hertbergian normalized fractal quantum integrated trading system, what good can it be??


More and more I see the potential of the great power to transform our lives.

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Feel better soon.



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Friday 15 June 2012

This is a 15 min chart showing the RTH session only.


All the lines and markings were done Wednesday.
You can see the yellow rectangle showing the gap.
I drew 2 S/R lines - heavy dotted pink.
On 11 June (last Monday - the line before 6/12) you see the spike.

So on Wednesday you know that they will push through the lower pink line. Why? because you are close enough to challenge the lower pink and once there they will run it up through the stops above 8 June's high. (1329.50 for June contract, 1330 Sept contract).

Next look at the gap. It is from 1342.75 (11 May) to 1337.25 (14 May). So this means that they will push it into the gap 1337.25. Today's RTH close is1338.50 at 15:15CT.


With this information you have good information that today would be a strong up day pushing into the gap. (It didn't have to be today except that the Greek elections over the weekend they want to pull out the stops before that happens and this could be their last chance.) Also yesterday's close was at 90% of the days range and at 85% of the RTH Bollinger band - indicating higher.




Further information for today push was the o/n session. Notice the strong jump in the o/n session from yesterday, Thurs and the Friday o/n. Also today's o/n was within striking distance of Monday 11 June o/n.

The question is then where will this peak? 5/8 is (1411.75-1262 June numbers) 93.50 ==> 1355.50. I'll go with 1353.



Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. etc. etc..

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Sure, sure - no insider trading on the downgrade before the news release - right? ha- ha.



From Larry:
Body Slammed


A funny thing happened to Mr. Market on the way to another hopium-fueled rally: it was body slammed! Somehow the hopium ran out. Quick, call Ben Bernank for another fix. Perhaps that will come Friday, with at least an inside day – right?

Yesterday we found out that Ben Bernank was all out of market crack, free money (read: hopium & QE), and this surprising news bled into today’s action. The market was weak fairly early but it wasn’t all the Ben Bernank’s fault; there were other problems.

The PMI Manufacturing Index for China was worse than expected – again.
Weekly jobless claims were worse than expected again, although the press reported it as a good report. As usual, the BS from the BLS was knee deep. Last week’s report was revised higher than originally reported in order to make this week’s data look better than it otherwise would. When will the clowns in the press REPORT on this?
Existing home sales worse that expected.
FHFA House Price Index was actually better than expected.
Philly Fed Survey was atrocious. It was expected to have a reading of +0.5%, but was -16.6%! Bloomberg said the following when it was released “The alarm you hear is the Philly Fed's monthly report where contraction is gripping the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector this month. The general business conditions index shows contraction for a second month and, at a minus 16.6 level, much more severe contraction than May's minus 5.8, a reading that in itself was a shock. High mid-teen negative readings sweep the details including new orders, unfilled orders, shipments, deliveries, and the workweek.”


But wait, there’s more…

If the aforementioned news wasn’t bad enough, Moody’s was expected to downgrade several major banks. Wait, downgrading banksters? The nerve! Nevertheless, this gripped the market all day. Traders wondered “Will there really be a three-notch downgrade of Morgan Stanley? It could kill it.”

The three-notch-downgrade death blow did not materialize. Moody’s went easy on MS and issued it a two-notch downgrade. Some reports are saying that this action will force MS to cough up nearly $7 billion in extra margin requirements for open positions with others in the banking mafia, since its ratings/collateral aren’t “worthy” as they were yesterday.

Here is a summary of the report…

Bank of America L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa2 from Baa1, outlook negative.
Barclays L-T issuer rating cut to A3 from A1, outlook negatuve
Citigroup L-T senior debt cut to Baa2 from A3, outlook negative
Credit Suisse Group L-T deposit, senior rating cut to A1 from Aa1, outlook stable
Goldman Sachs Group L-T senior unsecured debt cut to A3 from A1, outlook negative
HSBC Holdings L-T senior debt cut to Aa3 from Aa2, outlook negative
JPMorgan Chase L-T senior debt cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative
Morgan Stanley L-T senior unsecured debt cut to Baa1 from A2, outlook negative
Royal Bank of Scotland Group L-T senior debt cut to Baa1 from A3, outlook negative
Royal Bank of Scotland plc L-T deposit rating cut to A3 from A2, outlook negative
BNP Paribas L-T debt, deposit rating cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
Credit Agricole L-T debt, deposit rating cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative
Royal Bank of Canada L-T deposit rating cut to Aa3 from Aa1, outlook stable
Societe Generale L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from A1, outlook stable
UBS L-T debt, deposit cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable
Deutsche Bank AG L-T deposit rating cut to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable


Won’t it be loads of fun when Moody’s, Fitch, S&P, and Eagan Jones downgrade the USA again this summer, from the USA to the USSA.

Good times…good times…

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

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Friday - fishing

Gallery - Rebecca Lynn: Ravishing | American Curves Magazine

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Friday, 12 June 2012



------------Notes--------------
In the physical sciences, the wavenumber is a property of a wave, its spatial frequency, that is proportional to the reciprocal of the wavelength. It is also the magnitude of the wave vector. Its usual symbols are \scriptstyle\nu, \scriptstyle\tilde{\nu}, σ or k, the first three used for one definition, the last for another. The wavenumber has dimensions of reciprocal length, so its SI unit is m-1 and cgs unit cm−1 (in this context formerly called the kayser, after Heinrich Kayser).
Wavenumber - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In physics, a wave vector (also spelled wavevector) is a vector which helps describe a wave. Like any vector, it has a magnitude and direction, both of which are important: Its magnitude is either the wavenumber or angular wavenumber of the wave (inversely proportional to the wavelength), and its direction is ordinarily the direction of wave propagation (but not always, see below).
The wave vector can also be defined as a four-vector in the context of special relativity.
Wave vector - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia





In wave mechanics, the spatial frequency \nu is related to the wavelength \lambda by the formula

\nu = \frac{1}{\lambda}.

Likewise, the wave number k (e.g. in radians per meter) is related to spatial frequency and wavelength by

k = 2 \pi \nu = \frac{2 \pi}{\lambda}.

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Friday 22 June 2012

Reciprocal Energy

An Example with Sept Corn

The first thing to notice is the general trend. Here the longterm trend is Down from last Sept's Peak. (720 area). After the first big drop it had a retracement.
The retracement height is important to measure. It is the rebound energy from the fall.

These numbers are not random. They are given by traders establishing equilibrium levels.


In the chart and video I show how this can be used to determine future turn points.

The height of the first bounce is measured.
I have show this as a box.
This height is duplicated below the box to estimate the level corn will fall to when it breaks the lower edge of the box (which was the first low from the big drop).

So this is reciprocal energy the first bounce up is matched by the drop down.


Possible trades are:
Short on breakdown at lower edge of the box,
Close short and reverse long at estimated low.
Close long at lower edge of the box.
a. If it goes through (on upward) go long with target=high of the box.
b. If it fails at the lower edge of the box go short, possible target = low (though this second time down you would a trail a buystop as it may not go all the way to the earlier estimated low.)

Though some traders would hold the long at the potential resistance (=the lower edge of the box) so they are still long - which worked in this case, I prefer to stand aside.



Video on Reciprocal Energy
Example with Sept Corn 3.4min
2012-06-22_1400 - aquarian_ian's library




Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. etc. etc..

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Wrap-up for the Week 22 June 2012

Last week we said it would go up to 1355.50 (though I picked 1353 - haha) and it had a strong finish at 1338.25.

Buying at the open, selling at 1353 and closing at 1319 (the low was 1317.50 and 1319 was the gann number posted in Spoo-analysis), done with SPXU which is ultrashort S&P (so short CAR and close) using $30,000 would give us $7,128 on our $30,000 - using 50% margin.

This is 23.8% profit.



Notice that the 1355.50 area (1356.50 to be more precise) was shown - the higher dotted pink line.




Here is the week to 22 June with comments


Next week:
I'm looking for possible bounce to 1337 area - if it fails here go short

Possible levels to bounce off of:
Then down to 1307 area - if it bounces close short. I don't think it will so in that case stay short. There is a trendline there and its about 50%.
It could find a place to bounce at 1298 to1300 level - which is old lows and 5/8 retrace level - if it bounces close short.

If it has a bounce (say to 1317.50) then you're looking to go short again ONCE IT Fails.

We could easily be targeting the old lows 1262 (June basis) 1255.50 Sept basis.

Basically stay short green downtrend line.
.


Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....






SPXU Historical Prices | ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 Stock - Yahoo! Finance

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Monday 25 June 2012

GRAINS-Corn surges limit up as crop outlook dims48 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters

* CBOT Dec corn jumps to highest since Feb. 7 * Dryness continues to stress U.S. corn and soybeans * Weekend rains in France heighten quality concerns (Updates prices, adds new analyst quotes, changes byline, dateline, previously LONDON) By Michael Hirtzer CHICAGO, June 25 (Reuters) - U.S. corn futures surged the daily 40-cent limit, jumping to their highest since early February, as hot and dry weather in the big U.S. Midwest growing region reduced the outlook for yields. Corn futures for December delivery were headed for their biggest daily gain in the life of the contract at the Chicago Board of Trade while new-crop soybean futures advanced more than 3 percent after weekend rainfall disappointed and the extended forecast remained hot and dry. Grain futures bucked pressure from a firm dollar, lower equities and a sharp drop in crude oil. "The rainfall over the weekend was a bust. We thought we might see some scattered showers and that did not come through," said Citigroup analyst Sterling Smith in Chicago. "If we see these outside markets turn around, these grains could really catch fire." Analysts polled by Reuters predicted the U.S. Agriculture Department would reduce U.S. corn and soybean crop ratings late Monday by 2 to 3 percentage points while there was little rain in sight for the next 10 days. CBOT December corn was limit up at $5.94 cents per bushel, a gain of 7 percent. New-crop November soybeans rose 3.6 percent, or 50 cents, to $14.25-1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures joined the rally, buoyed additionally by diminished crop prospects in the Black Sea region. "It is very much a weather-related rally in this session," said Luke Mathews, commodities strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. Macquarie Capital, in a report received on Monday, cut its forecast for the U.S. corn yield to 156.5 bushels an acre, significantly below the USDA's current forecast of 166 bushels. The U.S. government will update its production and yield forecast in its annual acreage report due on Friday. "Dry conditions through out the Midwest, specifically the Southern Corn Belt, following the completion of plantings has raised the risk of poor pollination for the U.S. crop," Macquarie Capital said. "These dry conditions have also been combined with the forecast of below-average precipitation all the way through to pollination," the report added. The deteriorating conditions have prompted large speculators to turn bullish while overall managed money has been increasing a net long position in corn. Large speculators took a net long position in CBOT corn futures and options, reversing course after taking a bearish short bet two weeks ago for the first time since the summer of 2010, regulatory data released on Friday showed. TIGHT STOCKS Corn and soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest have endured dry, hot conditions at a time when the market is relying on a bumper harvest to rebuild tight stocks. The U.S. corn stockpile is projected to fall to a 16-year low by Aug. 31. Wheat prices also rose, with CBOT July up 27-1/2 cents or 4 percent at $7.00-3/4 a bushel. "The drought in the U.S. is driving the rise," a European broker said, adding that concerns about a drop in quality to French wheat crops after new showers over the week-end added nervousness in the market. "It is still too early to speak about damages but it's in people's mind, that's for sure," he said. Prices at 9:33 a.m. CDT (1433 GMT) LAST NET PCT YTD CHG CHG CHG CBOT corn 619.25 28.25 4.8% -4.2% CBOT soy 1479.50 37.00 2.6% 23.4% CBOT meal 434.60 12.60 3.0% 40.5% CBOT soyoil 51.04 1.30 2.6% -2.0% CBOT wheat 700.75 27.50 4.1% 7.4% CBOT rice 1469.00 22.00 1.5% 0.6% EU wheat 222.75 6.25 2.9% 10.0% US crude 78.67 -1.09 -1.4% -20.4% Dow Jones 12,484 -157 -1.2% 2.2% Gold 1573.00 1.56 0.1% 0.6% Euro/dollar 1.2487 -0.0065 -0.5% -3.5% Dollar Index 82.5240 0.2680 0.3% 2.9% Baltic Freight 978 0 0.0% -43.7%

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June 25, 2012

CANADA STOCKS-TSX near 3-week low as oil slips on euro zone fear48 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters

* TSX down 95.89 points, or 0.84 percent, at 11,339.65 * Energy stocks lead market lower as oil falls * Losses offset by gold miners, fertilizer producers By Allison Martell TORONTO, June 25 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index fell on Monday, touching its lowest point in almost three weeks, led by weaker energy stocks as oil dropped, with investors worried about the euro zone debt crisis ahead of a European Union summit later this week. Global equity and commodity markets dropped on investor skepticism that a June 28-29 European summit would produce substantive measures to tackle the debt crisis. "These are indicators that are suggesting that the global growth environment isn't extremely healthy. Europe remains a very large cause for concern," said Marco Lettieri, economist at National Bank Financial in Montreal. "As a result there's a high risk premium that continues to be put on to the market." At about 10:35 a.m. (1435 GMT) The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index was down 95.89 points, or 0.84 percent, at 11,339.65. The index at one point hit 11,312.13, its weakest level since June 4. "It's just another day of being held hostage to headline risk," said Bruce Latimer, a trader at Dundee Securities. The heavyweight energy group played the biggest role in leading the market lower, dropping 2 percent. Financial issues declined 1.2 percent. Royal Bank of Canada fell 1.8 percent to C$51.03, while Suncor Energy fell 2 percent to C$27.69. The two companies played the biggest role of any stocks in pulling the TSX lower. Encana Corp was also among the major decliners, losing 3.4 percent to hit C$19.68. In addition to weaker energy prices, a Reuters investigation found that Encana plotted with Chesapeake Energy Corp to suppress land prices in Michigan. In response to questions from Reuters on the matter, Encana said it was undertaking an internal investigation. The only major TSX sector that rose was materials, helped by gold miners and fertilizer producers. Goldcorp Inc rose 1.5 percent to C$38.53 as gold prices held above $1,570 an ounce, following a sharp correction last week. Shares of Potash Corp rose 3.3 percent to C$42.73 and Agrium Inc was 1.1 percent higher at C$87.83 after corn futures rose on the Chicago Board of Trade, as dry weather threatened to cause more harm to the U.S. corn crop. Shares of the fertilizer makers typically track the prices of fertilizer-intensive corn closely, as higher grain prices are likely to spur farmers to increase crop nutrient utilization.

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June 25, 2012

11:32CT

Fan forming

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25 June 2012 11:55



Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....

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Market Wizard
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Well said Ron!

Rarely does anyone speak of the increase of the police/military state that is being engineered in the USA.
"Return to the principles of freedom, civil liberties of the person and self-reliance that our forefathers knew."


Ron Pauls Urgent Warning! Inevitable Collapse Of The Dollar.mp4 - YouTube

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Sim trade to test Lazy L


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Targets




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The Great Depression (10.25 min)
1929 Wall Street Stock Market Crash - YouTube

Peak Aug 27, 1029
Thursday panicky selling Oct 24 1929
Tuesday collapse Oct 29, 1929 "Black Tuesday"

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25 June 2012
1:30CT

Heading down




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25 June 2012


+3pts - sim



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25 June 2012
Looking at ETFs for Oil

Oil is in a downtrend.
You could buy one of these at a pullback to the trendline and then close the position at the resistance.

This is NOT to say that it WILL fail at the resistance only that resistance is a point of POTENTIAL trend change.
The way i play this is to sell, stand aside and what to see what happens at these points.
Clearly, we are far into the downtrend of oil and a better buy would be earlier, but I am looking at ETF versus futures in regards to a recent thought posed. I want to do trades in ETFs one for the ES one for CL and one for GC but in ETFs with an I of demonstrating chart reading and the potential of ETFs for traders with less time for trading.

My idea is to show that you could place trades about each three-four weeks and do very well.

I have created a shadow portfolio of $100,000 and placed $30,000 in each pot with $10,000 reserve.

----------
Chart of HOD



Chart of SCO




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25 June 2012
resold one at 1307





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It's dipsy - dodiling around the 1307 line so the last two are not looking so good.

I've put a but-to-close at 1306.25 for 2
and one at 1304.25

manipulators are in full control.

taking a break ....

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Closed them out.

Lazy L day confirmed.


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Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Time 12:03CT

In the wrap-up and preview of the upcoming week, done on Sunday night June 24, I say:


aquarian1 View Post
...
Next week:
I'm looking for possible bounce to 1337 area - if it fails here go short
Possible levels to bounce off of:
Then down to 1307 area - if it bounces close short. I don't think it will so in that case stay short. There is a trendline there and its about 50%.
It could find a place to bounce at 1298 to1300 level - which is old lows and 5/8 retrace level - if it bounces close short.
.....
Basically stay short green downtrend line.

Here you have been shown once again tradeable levels forecasted with precision coming to fruition.

Chart reading takes practice and skill. But as with any craft it can be mastered. Beginners will read a little article and then try it and fail. This is somewhat like reading a book on playing the piano and then trying it without practising and failing and then saying "playing the piano doesn't work." Anything skill worth acquiring usually takes practise.

So we saw last week the estimation of the high at 1355.50 the 5/8 level and the high made at 1357. We have demonstrated it is tradeable with a 24% profit on SPUX in one week with 3 trades ( ). Buying on Monday's open selling and reversing at the estimation level and closing at the low. (SPUX is reversed so above is in terms of ES).

Now we have said a fall to 1307 level and possibly 1298 to 1300. You can see this happen on the chart.
(and yesterdays low of 1302.5). Very tradeable at the open was 1314.75. MFbreakout did trade it. Once you are short the second end is only a question of how much profit. You can see in yesterday's intraday posts I first idneitfied that the low was approaching (fan forming: ) I identified when the Low of the day was in place ( ). So you recoginized the low was 1307 to the 1300 and then during the trading day you can identify the low more precisely (using indicators and speed lines.)

There are none so blind as those who will not see.



Yesterday, Monday 25 June 2012, it:
opened gap down (-5)
fell from 1315.50 at 8:30 to 1302.50 @ 11:01
bounced to 1310.25 at 14:26
and drooped off to the close at 1306.75

Open: 1314.75
Close: 1306.75

Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....



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bot 1/3 of line for ETF example



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Wednesday 27 June 2012 9:20CT

Bot 1000 more



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so, did you exit or still holding? – I’m at work so I can only see the S&P 500(INDEXSP:.INX

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Wednesday 27 June 2012
21:26

Hi Dario,

Yes still holding. Yes is a paper exercise for a friend inspired by Spoo-analysis to show that very good money can be made by trading ETFs for a person who is working. The idea is you review the charts over the weekend and draw up the gameplan for the week.

So the first set of trades was for the week finishing on 22 June. In ES terms
Bot opening Monday
Sold and reversed (CAR) at 1353 (high 1357)
Close on Thursday 1319 (low 1317).
(Since I'm using SPUX the trades are reversed - Sell at open....)

This week the gameplan is that will be a bounce up to the green line (roughly) and then a fall which could eventually take us below the 1252 low, so might hold after Friday.

So why aren't I stopping out? Well the gameplan is a rough roadmap.
The bounce is higher but I bot higher and I'm only -$330 and I have +$7,128 from last week.
With ETFs you can ease in and give it more room.
It holding below the SMA you can see (green)
and more importantly ES still below 50% and 5/8

----

If it pushes through 5/8 on the close I may have to consider that I was wrong on this trade.
Good tradin to you and thanks for the pivots - the R2 was close today






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From Larry:

Soccer fans are only two games away from the Euro 2012 finals. Portugal and Spain play today while Italy will face the Germans on Thursday. The winner’s will play to claim the title of the “Best in Europe.”

It’s hard not to draw ironic parallels, as Thursday also marks the beginning of the EU summit to settle the economic score. The lay-up analogy was earlier in the week, when the “best” beat the “worst” as Germany topped Greece 4-2 to advance to the semi-finals.

If financial health translates to future soccer success, Germany should trounce Italy while Portugal and Spain will play an uninspired, poorly executed match that ends in a 0-0 tie.

While the US doesn’t compete in the Euro Soccer (truth be told, we’d get our butts kicked), we are the big player in the European financial game. In fact, the man of the match should be Ben Bernanke.

That’s right, because even though the US isn’t in this game, Ben Bernanke is the uber defender, stopper and goalie for all of Europe’s woes. Not only is the U.S. single largest source of money to the International Monetary Fund, we are the lender of last resort with continued dollar injections to the Eurozone.

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aquarian1 View Post
Wednesday 27 June 2012
21:26

Hi Dario,

Yes still holding. Yes is a paper exercise for a friend inspired by Spoo-analysis to show that very good money can be made by trading ETFs for a person who is working. The idea is you review the charts over the weekend and draw up the gameplan for the week.

So the first set of trades was for the week finishing on 22 June. In ES terms
Bot opening Monday
Sold and reversed (CAR) at 1353 (high 1357)
Close on Thursday 1319 (low 1317).
(Since I'm using SPUX the trades are reversed - Sell at open....)

This week the gameplan is that will be a bounce up to the green line (roughly) and then a fall which could eventually take us below the 1252 low, so might hold after Friday.

So why aren't I stopping out? Well the gameplan is a rough roadmap.
The bounce is higher but I bot higher and I'm only -$330 and I have +$7,128 from last week.
With ETFs you can ease in and give it more room.
It holding below the SMA you can see (green)
and more importantly ES still below 50% and 5/8

----

If it pushes through 5/8 on the close I may have to consider that I was wrong on this trade.
Good tradin to you and thanks for the pivots - the R2 was close today


Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....



I'm holding mine too (but Long), I will reverse sometime soon,

here are the pivots for tomorrow:
R3 1345.00
R2 1338.50
R1 1332.00
PP 1322.00
S1 1315.50
S2 1305.50
S3 1299.00

and tomorrow's key news:
08:30 Unemployment Claims (USD)
08:30 Final GDP (USD)
10:30 Natural Gas Storage (USD)

Good night and thanks for your insight
D

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Thursday, 28 June 2012

I looked at intraday trading of 1/2 the SPXU position, that is selling 750 shares this morning and rebuying near the close. Doesn't seem to be worth it, perhaps $400-$500 or so.



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Friday 29 June, 2011


Earlier, in SPoo-analysis thread, I posted that with the creation of 5 trillion dollars in 5 years, pumped into the banks and practically none of it reaching the economy, that there is a vested interest on the part of the govt manipulation of the market.( )

There are 3 publically declared tools: 1. The plunge protection act, 2. the Fed, 3. the little known and little publized market support act. It is the later that is the most important to the Spoo-analysis thread.

This vitually unkown act give the president the power to use federal money to purchase stocks and drive up the market [bold]at ANY TIME he chooses[/bold]. This is the key. If YOU were the president in an election year getting into the election session, just before the national holiday (4 July) and your landmark legislation is cleared by the courts (Obamacare), when is the most politically advantageous day to manipulate the markets - with your 100% legal right to do so?

How about the day after "your" health care legislation is passed?
Ask yourself, "Do you think it is "co-incidence" that the rally is today?"

It is the day the voters are asking themselves - is this good or bad?
And what happens? The market soars? Most people haven't a clue about the markets. IF the weekend newspapers have headlines like:
"Market soars on announcement of Obama's heatlh care legislation!"
It helps him in discussions about health care - over the July 4 barbeque parties.

This post is [bold]not[/bold] to sidetrack the thread into - healthcare, political rambling, and vague and incorrect abstractions about the fed -who it really is and what its real function is, nor is this market manipulated and by whom? (For myself only an person using massive cognitive dissonance and incredibly naive could believe it is not manipulated.)

This post remind those who trade the ES - it is a manipulated market.
To forget that is to throw out the most important factor in the estimation of the ES movements, IMO.

When is the best day to manipulte? either when is it polically advantageous (to Fed, US Govt etc) OR when it is least expected.


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The above post is not an invitation to have people post in my trading journal any-thing off topic.
This journal is only for those interested in Estimation trading.
Please do not post your thoughts on manipultion or politics or "the news" etc.


I welcome those interested in this type of trading to PM me, or email me.



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Holiday hours

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aquarian1 View Post
Holiday hours

you're late -- GridKing beat you by few minutes

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From Larry:



Friday’s stock indices all closed markedly higher, which came after huge higher gap opens. What happened in between the higher gap opens and the close was nothing. The markets were dead…until the closing bell. Only then was there life when the markets went even higher on a short covering explosion.

ZeroHedge has a good recap of the action here Brian Sack's Window Dressing Farewell Gift To Wall Street | ZeroHedge

Stocks opened around 2% gap higher this morning after the late-night headlines from Europe made many think that the tooth-fairy and Santa are real once again. S&P 500 e-mini futures saw some selling into the open but then stabilized amid a very narrow range for much of the rest of the day - leaking higher on low volume-driven short-covering. The news from Germany of ESM ratification was greeted with absolutely no price movement as an indication of just how insane things are but the need to drive stocks up in the last few minutes was crazy. Into the close, volume exploded as ES rose 10pts in minutes from absolutely nowhere. Average trade size was very heavy during this period and delta skewed notably to block selling into the ramp though it is never that obvious. ES closed above its 50DMA back to its highest since 5/8.

The Window-Dressing Roadmap

It would appear that the No 'New' QE from the FOMC on 6/20 left a lot of all-important funds long-and-very-wrong. Today's rampfest miraculously lifted (window-dressing) Energy and Financials (two of the MOST sensitive sectors to QE) back to perfectly unchanged from the exact time of the FOMC announcement. Notably, since that exact time 'safe' sectors of Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities have outperformed as Tech, Materials, and Discretionary are underperforming (though all did their very best to end the month up (especially relative to the FOMC news moment)... fascinating eh?

While stocks exuded every bit of total insanity, Treasuries ended the week lower in yield across the whole complex (leaving Gold, the Long Bond, and the USD all almost perfectly +2.8% YTD). WTI is down 14.5% YTD to close Q2 thanks to a huge VW-like 9% squeeze higher today (that acounted in correlated risk terms for around half of equity's performance) up to around $85. Equity and HY credit have recoupled but HYG is the most expensive relative to its fair-value in over a month. The USD plunged on EUR strength (and AUD carry trades) to end the week -0.66% but Gold and Silver more than doubled those implied gains ending the week +1.8%. VIX tested below 17% late on but ended above it (down 2.6 vols) closing at 6/20 closing levels. The main takeaway is that most risk assets recovered to last week's highs but stocks turned the amplifier of insanity to 11 and pushed back to near two-month highs not to be outdone into quarter-end (wink wink).

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I'm observer now -- how about you?

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To me clearly the ramp on Friday was manipulation

(I guess zero-edge agrees - well probably everyone except those with the "new evolving currency concept" in an ever expanding Fed manadate ... blah, blah blah. )

I said "they" would ramp it up they did. As and interesting side-note the "secret" number came out
see

17 June secret number 1360.

High Friday =1359.50

This morning ... H1361.00 at 08:47




Conspiracy theorists eat your heart out
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Farcical – pertaining to or the nature of farce; absurd; ludicrous. Well, now I know how to describe what happened on Globex last night: farcical!

The mini-S&P (ES) rallied in a MAJOR way last night – spiking to at least 1342.25 (I am actually writing this now, but you will be reading it in the morning). The ES exploded ~26.00 points from the low because of…wait for it…rumors of potential deals from the latest so-called “summit” in Europe.

Just one hour after the meat of the rally took hold, the Italians have already said the so-called agreement is a non-starter. They will not play ball. Farcical, indeed!

As I traded the ES first long, then short, I read the following headlines from Bloomberg…


EURO LEADERS RENOUNCE SENIORITY ON SPAIN LOANS
EURO LEADERS AGREE TO OPEN FUNDS WITHOUT AUSTERITY PROGRAMS
BANKS CAN BE RECAPPED DIRECTLY WITH AID FUNDS, VAN ROMPUY SAYS


Then…


MERKEL SAYS EU LEADERS TO CONTINUE WORK ON LONG-TERM MEASURES
JUNCKER SAYS WOULD HAVE `HOPED FOR MORE' FROM EU SUMMIT
EU BANK SUPERVISION IS CONDITION FOR ESM LOANS TO BANKS: RUTTE


Frau Merkel says “EU leaders will continue to work on long-term measures” but that won’t fly. Re-read the prior bolded headline, which says it all: money for nothing and chicks for free. (Dire Straits – Money for Nothing)

Although this nonsense has been regurgitated over and over and over again, it makes no difference: the headline-seeking algorithms controlled by the self-aware SkyNet supercomputer will buy it every time.

Along with the regurgitation of the “we’re saved again” bull$#it is the ever-present “no we’re not” – also known as reality. When the ES reached the aforementioned 1342.25 level, Mario Monti made a few headlines himself.


MONTI SAYS EURO LEADERS HAVE NO PLAN FOR BOOSTING BAILOUT FUNDS
ITALY HAS NO INTENTION TO `APPLY FOR THIS,' MONTI SAYS
IRELAND'S KENNY SAYS WHAT WAS IMPOSSIBLE IS NOW POSSIBLE


Apparently Ireland’s Mr. Kenny is happy about the initial headline that read there is free money coming with no austerity. Yeah, that’s gonna work out fine.

Isn’t it interesting how this is happening right before the end of the quarter? Nothing’s actually rigged – right? Well, US interest rates are “set” (read: rigged) by the Federal Reserve. And LIBOR is illegally rigged. Certain health care stocks exploded 1 minute BEFORE the Supreme Court ruled in favor of those exact stocks. That was clearly leaked, which means it was clearly rigged. But not this – right? Just another coincidence I’m sure.

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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, euro dragged lower by grim economic data46 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters

* European shares edge down from two-month highs

* Euro struggles on weak data, ECB meeting eyed

* Trade subdued with U.S. closed for Independence Day

By Richard Hubbard

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - World shares, the euro and oil prices fell on Wednesday as evidence grew of the headwinds facing the global economy, though hopes of policy easing by major central banks limited the falls.

Strong demand for safe-haven German debt at a bond auction also signalled that investors remain worried about the implementation of recently agreed measures to help ease the euro zone's debt crisis, with Spanish and Italian bond yields higher.

However, activity was very subdued with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday and before policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday.

In the quiet market Germany still found it easy to sell 3.3 billion euros ($4.2 billion) of 5-year government bonds, receiving bids for 2.7 times the amount on offer at an average yield of just 0.52 percent.

"What we are seeing is that ... this demand for safety remains intact," said Michael Leister, rate strategist at DZ Bank.

After the auction 10-year Spanish bond yields rose 14 basis points to 6.4 percent, and the Italian equivalent rose 12.5 basis points to 5.77 percent.

The euro steadied against the dollar to trade around $1.2525 , under pressure from widespread expectations that the ECB is about to cut interest rates.

The single currency fell to an 11-1/2 year low against the higher-yielding Swedish crown when Sweden's central bank kept its main interest rates unchanged.

EQUITIES SLIDE

European share markets ended three days of gains, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares finishing down 0.2 percent at 1,044.29 points, retreating from a two-month high set on Tuesday.

MSCI's world equity index also snapped a three-day rally, dipping 0.1 percent to 316.03 points.

Equity markets began their latest rally on Friday, having fallen sharply for much of June, after European Union leaders agreed on new measures to support the region's banks and address funding problems facing Spain.

Investors have also been encouraged back into riskier asset markets by the belief that the ECB will cut rates on Thursday and that it may also inject fresh funds to help boost the region's struggling economy.

A Reuters poll of economists showed a majority of economists expect the ECB to cut its main rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent on Thursday, while money market traders are evenly split on whether the central bank will cut the deposit rate, a separate survey showed.

"Investors will also want to see if the ECB President (Mario Draghi) will highlight downside risks to growth and inflation, which will set the ground for more easing," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS.

The Bank of England is expected to launch a third round of monetary stimulus at its meeting.

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN

Data releases from across the globe continue to add weight to the view that the world economy is slowing down.

An survey of private Chinese service sector firms showed their activity growing at the slowest rate in 10 months in June as new orders growth cooled, although the services Purchasing Managers Index has shown 43 months of expansion.

Another survey revealed that Germany's services sector unexpectedly stagnated in June, ending an eight-month period of expansion as new orders dropped.

A composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the whole euro area, which surveyed thousands of companies, was revised up in June, but has been below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for nine of the last 10 months.

"The PMIs are bottoming out at a level consistent with further contraction of (economic) activity in the second quarter," said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale, of the euro zone PMIs.

COMMODITIES STEADY

The prospect of further central bank monetary easing has supported the prices of gold and other commodities this week, but the increasingly grim news about the health of the world economy has sparked a retreat.

"We believe that the euro zone crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff, and the possibility of a hard landing in China will give the markets plenty to worry about and will keep risk appetite low and constrained," Societe Generale said.

The bank has lowered its price outlook for Brent crude by $5 a barrel to $100.

Brent crude, which had also been gaining on rising tension over Iran's nuclear programme, was $1.10 lower at $99.58 per barrel after jumping more than 3 percent on Tuesday.

Brent crude was trading as low as $88.49 on June 22.

Spot gold was little changed, holding near a two-week high of $1,624.70 an ounce at $1,616.05, having risen more than 4 percent since last Friday.

The gold market is likely to remain steady before the release of U.S. monthly employment data on Friday, which may encourage talk the Federal Reserve will join with its European counterparts in taking additional policy easing measures.

The U.S. monthly jobs report is expected to show 90,000 workers were added to non-farm payrolls in June and the unemployment rate held at 8.2 percent.


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dario1 View Post
I'm observer now -- how about you?

Made and HXD trade for my mom.
She made $2,000 24 May to 3 July

I'm waiting for this dog to roll-over and kicking myself for not being ready and able to be in the corn market.
Pull up a chart. Positively makes me ill to think I missed this rocketship!

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aquarian1 View Post
I'm waiting for this dog to roll-over and kicking myself for not being ready and able to be in the corn market.
Pull up a chart. Positively makes me ill to think I missed this rocketship!

I try to stay away from my roots as possible, so corn and other agricultural commodity are not my favourites
BTW, what time do you trade? I usually trade evenings and mornings -- I still have a day job.

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Market Wizard
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I work - gathering numbers, analysis updating spreadsheets etc all day every day.
Trade 8:30 - 15:15 CT

(BTW please don't use the F**king laughing sarcasm icon Thanks.)

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Sorry I didn't mean to upset you
I took some time off from work so I'll try to be online tomorrow and Friday from around 6am until noon

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From Larry Levin

Bankers Behaving Badly


We’ve long since patched up our differences with England, but in honor of the July fourth holiday, let’s spark up the US versus UK rivalry.

The dubious honor is the world’s biggest manipulator and so far it seems that the winner is our European friend.

Barclays Chief Executive Bob Diamond resigned Tuesday; the latest head to roll after the London-based bank was fined $453 million last week for attempting to manipulate inter-bank lending rates. The record fine was imposed after Barclays admitted that its traders had attempted to fix Libor, the global rate for bank-to-bank lending that underpins some $350 trillion worth of contracts worldwide. False reports of the interest rate primarily originated with traders working in the investment banking division of the company between 2005 and 2009, headed at that time by Diamond, according to the AP.

Of course, there’s been no mention of Diamond going to jail. Global price fixing and manipulation doesn’t seem to warrant a prison sentence, just a pink slip.

Still, the competition isn’t over. America may out-mainpulate Brittan when the full details emerge about a story released Tuesday by Bloomberg. U.S investment bank Morgan Stanley, which just barely avoided a triple notch downgrade, successfully pushed Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service Inc. to give unwarranted investment-grade ratings in 2006 to $23 billion worth of notes backed by subprime mortgages, investors claimed in a lawsuit citing documents unsealed in federal court.

Executives at the ratings firms failed to warn investors about the risks associated with subprime-backed notes that were issued by a unit of London-based hedge fund Cheyne Capital Management Ltd. because they wanted to reap financial rewards from doing business with guess who, Morgan Stanley.

Let’s see how this story unfolds. Uncle Sam may very well catch up before Labor Day.

Happy 236th Birthday!

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Friday
12:10 PM 7/6/2012

I have corrected and updated my first trade formula. The first trade of the day is not always the FE of the day, that it is not necessarily the HOD or LOD. If the estimate is FE=HE i.e. HOD and there is 6pts or more to the FE then the first trade is long to the HE and CAR. Conversely, if the estimate is FE=LE i.e. LOD and there is 6pts or more to the FE then the first trade is long to the HE and CAR.

V days and Caret Days
Within the concept of FE = HOD or LOD days which are Caret or V days are problematic for the spreadsheet at this time. For example, if you have open =1365 and then FE=HE=1373 @ 8:47 , then SE=LE=1357 @11:12, then Third end (TE) =HE=1373 @14:37, then close at 1370, you would have a "V" day. The HE, 1372, happens twice.

Currently, the spreadsheet may mix the times so that shows the time for SE as TE that is 14:37 instead of the correct 11:12.

V days and Caret Days do not happen that often and usually you have mixed signals. For example you could have dir=-1 and estmid=+1. (This translates to the main direction of the day is down and the estimated midpt is expected to the higher than yesterday's midpt.) The correct signal would be dir=0

I need to do some work with my momentum indicators and match them to day types, which perhaps I can do in the main spreadsheet.

In the example below of Thursday 28 June it is not a perfect V in the RTH with 1318.75, but using the H1325 at 6:23 we see almost a perfect V 1325 , 1306.75 and 1324.25.
One this day we had dir=-1 midchg=+1 (that is mixed signals).



-----
I welcome those interested in estimation and prediction trading to PM me.


Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss.

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From Larrys email

Note: another reason for a trading journal and questions to ask yourself - bulleting to questions and bolding are my edits.
----------------

Coming Back from a Loss
A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it was necessary, which was his first mistake. It is critical to keep a trading journal.

In my journal I ask myself everyday:
  • Did I follow my trading plan properly?
  • Did I do anything wrong and if so, why?
If I did follow my plan correctly but I lost money, I am not hard on myself. Sometimes this happens! If I didn’t follow my rules but still made money, however, that’s a problem.

I highlight these days so I never repeat this fatal flaw. One of the worst things you can do is ignore your rules and make money, because then you feel that "winging it" is a good plan. It is not.

If this happens, you have to ask yourself;
  • 'Why didn’t I follow my rules?
  • Was it lack of confidence in the system?
  • Fear?
  • Or did my ego want to be the hero that sold the high?"
If you lack confidence in a system, paper-trade it religiously and keep a massive amount of statistics on the outcomes. Be honest with each trade and if the results are good, immediately ban all second-guesses.

If you are playing blackjack and the dealer has a six showing while you were dealt a ten & a nine for nineteen, would you HIT IT because "maybe this time the dealer won’t bust!?" Of course you wouldn’t! You know that the long-term outcome of that decision would be certain disaster.

It is the same with trading: don’t question a trade if the statistics show it’s a winner over the long term.
Fear also exists when a trader doesn’t believe in his system yet. Or it may just be the fear of being wrong, which is another ego-based problem. You have to let go of being right. Trading is about probabilities and making money; not about being right or wrong.

I’ve found that traders who used ego-based decisions to mess with their system or break their rules added little to no value to their trading. In fact it almost always hurts more than it helps. Trading for ego satisfaction is not a good idea, because your ego risks getting damaged during a rough trading patch.

I like to go back and look at my trades over the last week and last month, to see how they performed.
  • Am I repeating my mistakes?
  • If I bought or sold too soon, I want to find out why.
Be honest, and ask good questions:
  • What worked?
  • What will I do differently next time?
  • What was I feeling when I ignored that trade?
Keep notes on trades you liked but didn’t make.What held you back? Do you notice any patterns causing you to miss opportunities? FIX THEM!

My friend listened intently and took notes. He will be a better trader for it.

Best trades to you,

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage

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2012-08-21_1041_ES 10 min - aquarian_ian's library

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from Larry Levin:

I thought it was unusual that nobody in the Lame Street Media mentioned the recent momentous accomplishment of the Obama administration: it has already racked up enough (current) DEBT, when added to the prior DEBT, equates to a sickening $16,000,000,000,000.00 (that’s trillion$) in the red. Yes sir, like Fraud Street, Congress just keeps kicking that can down the road that never seems to end. But when it might, Congress decrees that another 10 miles of road lay beyond the horizon…jut trust them.

An article from the sovereign man sums it up well…the full article can be found here Sovereign Man: Offshore Business, Global Opportunities, Freedom and Expat News


If you haven't heard yet, the United States of America just hit $16 trillion in debt yesterday. On a gross, nominal basis, this makes the US, by far, the greatest debtor in the history of the world.

It took the United States government over 200 years to accumulate its first trillion dollars of debt. It took only 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion dollars of debt. 200 years vs. 286 days. This portends two key points:

Anyone who thinks that inflation doesn't exist is a complete idiot; To say that the trend is unsustainable is a massive understatement. At an average interest rate of 2.130%, Uncle Sam will shuffle $340 billion out the door just in interest payments this year... and it's a number that's only going up. To put it in context, China owns so much US debt that the INTEREST INCOME they receive from the Treasury Department is nearly enough to fund their entire military budget.

It's rather disgusting when you think about it.

Yet when you look at the raw numbers, there is no sign of improvement anywhere on the horizon. Last year, the Treasury Department brought in about $2.3 trillion in tax revenue. They spent $2.9 trillion JUST on -mandatory- programs like Social Security and Medicare, plus the very sacrosanct defense budget.

In other words, the US government was $600 billion dollars in the hole before paying a dime of interest on the debt, or paying the light bill at the White House. In fact the governments own numbers reflect a budget deficit through the end of the decade, i.e. the debt level is only going to get higher. These are their own figures.

In the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire was facing a similar debt crisis. In just 11-years, the Ottoman central government went from spending 17% of its tax revenue on interest payments, to spending over 52% of its tax revenue on interest payments. Then came default. Eleven years. The US is at 15% right now. How long will it take for the interest burden to become unbearable?

History is full of examples of superpowers bucking under the weight of their debt. This is not the first time that it's happened, and it won't be the last.

Sovereign debt is a giant confidence game. Investors buy bonds on the belief that governments can (and will) pay. When that confidence is chipped away, the cost of capital becomes debilitating. And people tend to notice a $16 trillion debt burden

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RETRACE

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Russia reveals shiny state secret: It's awash in diamonds - Yahoo! News

Russia has just declassified news that will shake world gem markets to their core: the discovery of a vast new diamond field containing "trillions of carats," enough to supply global markets for another 3,000 years.

The Soviets discovered the bonanza back in the 1970s beneath a 35-million-year-old, 62-mile diameter asteroid crater in eastern Siberia known as Popigai Astroblem.

They decided to keep it secret, and not to exploit it, apparently because the USSR's huge diamond operations at Mirny, in Yakutia, were already producing immense profits in what was then a tightly controlled world market.

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(Further down info on May 2010 "fat finger" algo
2010 equity market crash, the SEC and CFTC staff report)

Source:
Flash crash or a turning point for oil prices? | Investing | Financial Post

Monday’s sudden dive in oil prices appears more and more unusual with hindsight, and poses questions for traders, regulators and exchanges alike about just who or what caused such a major turnaround in the market.

Explanations range from a “fat finger” trading error or a high-frequency computer trading programme run amok to a concentration of stop-loss orders being triggered or a single large trade by a hedge fund selling up to 10 million barrels of crude in a single clip, though no one appears to know for certain.
Related

What caused the oil flash crash?

The veil of secrecy surrounding derivatives trading also makes it hard to reconstruct the sequence of events that led to the plunge in Brent futures shortly before 18:00 GMT.

Only market regulators and the exchanges themselves have access to the detailed trading data — including the identities of buyers and sellers — that would make it possible to describe the chain of events in full.

In recent years, the only sudden move that has been properly explained was the flash crash in U.S. equity markets on May 6, 2010. And that was only possible because the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) set up a detailed enquiry that took more than four months to publish its conclusions. (“Findings regarding the market events of May 6, 2010: Report of the staffs of the CFTC and the SEC to the Joint Advisory Committee on Emerging Regulatory Issues” Sep 30, 2010)

The CFTC is looking into Monday’s oil price drop and is collaborating with Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) which regulates the London-based Brent market.

CME Group, which operates one of the two principal oil markets, has described the drop as a “coordinated selloff” not caused by any technical failures.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which runs the main Brent contract, has declined to comment on whether it saw any unusually big orders placed during the period.

It did however say: “Following rumours regarding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), volume was widely distributed and oil prices declined over a period of time. Circuit breakers were not triggered and markets were orderly.”

In the absence of a study like the one into equity prices in 2010, the trigger for the drop in oil prices may never be known with any certainty.

That should concern oil market participants because the Sept. 17 price drop had characteristics of both a flash crash and a more significant and long-lived turning point.

Trading that day was far from normal. In trading activity on the day and two days later on Wednesday Sept. 19, another day on which prices fell heavily, the total price range on both days was similar: $5.52 on the Monday and $5.58 on the Wednesday. But in other respects the trading action could not have been more different.

On Monday, the plunge in prices and surge in trading volume was concentrated in 20 minutes between 17:50 and 18:10 GMT, with an extraordinary 10,000 contracts traded in the space of 60 seconds at 17:55 GMT.

On Wednesday, by contrast, prices slid steadily throughout most of the day, with volume never exceeding 5,000 contracts a minute, and no obvious discontinuity in pricing

Although something unusual clearly occurred just before 18:00 GMT on Sept. 17, such aberrations may be becoming more frequent as computer-driven trading accounts for a rising share of turnover and market-making.

It is tempting to write off the events of Sept. 17 as merely a flash crash. But they also appear to have coincided with, and perhaps caused, a much bigger turning point in the oil markets.
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After rising steadily by almost $25.70 per barrel or 28 percent from June 28 ($91.35) to Sept. 17 ($117.02), the ICE November Brent futures contract has fallen $9.75 (8.4 percent) in the space of three days, in what appears to be a decisive turning point.

In their report on the 2010 equity market crash, the SEC and CFTC staff found that “against a backdrop of unusually high volatility and thinning liquidity, a large fundamental trader (a mutual fund complex) initiated a sell programme to sell a total of 75,000 E-mini contracts (valued at approximately $4.1 billion) as a hedge to an existing equity position”.

“This large fundamental trader chose to execute this sell program via an automated execution algorithm (”Sell Algorithm“) that was programmed to feed orders into the June 2010 E-Mini market to target an execution rate set to 9% of the trading volume calculated over the previous minute, but without regard to price or time,” the report noted.

“On May 6, when markets were already under stress, the Sell Algorithm chosen by the large trader to only target trading volume, and neither price nor time, executed the sell program extremely rapidly in just 20 minutes.”

The fundamental trader’s sales were initially absorbed by high-frequency traders (HFTs) and other intermediaries causing a sharp rise in volume. But that fooled the sell algorithm into thinking there was more liquidity than was really the case, causing it to step up the pace of sales even further.

In effect, the large fundamental trader sold faster than the HFTs and other intermediaries could find other long-term fundamental buyers, and ended up trading against itself.

“The Sell Algorithm used by the large trader responded to the increased volume by increasing the rate at which it was feeding the orders into the market, even though orders that it already sent to the market were arguably not yet fully absorbed by fundamental buyers or cross-market arbitrageurs,” according to the report.

The SEC/CFTC study highlights the interactions between liquidity, market fragmentation, a single large bungled trade, and the responses of HFTs and other market makers.

This week’s fall in oil prices looks similar, and comes amid a period of high tension in the crude market.

By Sept. 11, hedge funds and other money managers, betting prices would rise further, had amassed a near-record long position in WTI and Brent-linked futures and options equivalent to 410 million barrels of crude, according to position data published by the CFTC and ICE.

At the same time, the White House has been hinting it might order a release of emergency oil stocks from the SPR to cap prices and prevent rising fuel costs harming the economy.

And on Sept. 18, the day after the flash crash, a Saudi official said Riyadh wanted prices to come down and was “working to bring it down.”

From the published data, it remains unclear whether Sept. 17’s price drop was an accident, or if someone decided to give the market a good hard shove, putting on a large position in a short space of time with the intention of moving the price.

Whatever the cause, it has triggered a cycle of liquidation that has pushed prices much lower. That will be welcome in the White House, but for hedge funds and other investors who had amassed a big long position on the expectation of further rises it is exceptionally painful.

For both sides of the market it raises unsettling questions about just what happened on Monday that could produce such a big turnaround in the whole direction of the market.

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

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advance decline

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possible scenario

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Spanish investors in Gecina file for bankruptcy | Reuters

Spanish investors in Gecina file for bankruptcy

By Carlos Ruano

MADRID | Wed Oct 3, 2012 8:01am EDT

(Reuters) - Two Spanish investment firms that own 31 percent of French property company Gecina (GFCP.PA) have filed one of the biggest bankruptcy actions in Spanish history after a bank refused to refinance a 1.6 billion euro ($2.1 billion) loan.

Alteco and MAG Import said in a statement on Wednesday that they were up to date with their payments on the syndicated loan, and the refinancing effort had been supported by other banks involved.

The uncertainty over the fate of the firms' stake in Gecina, which has a market capitalization of 5 billion euros, knocked the French company's shares down 4 percent to 77.5 euros.

Spanish banks have already written off hundreds of millions of euros in losses on soured real estate investments after a property market crash in 2008 and are now waiting for rescue funds from Europe.

The banks with the highest exposure to the syndicated loan are Popular (POP.MC), Bankia (BKIA.MC), NCG, France's Natixis and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L), sources said.

One source said Natixis had balked at refinancing the loan.

The bank had no immediate comment.

Many businesses related to the property and construction sectors, once the main drivers of the Spanish economy, crumbled after the market crashed. Others have relied on bank refinancing to stay afloat.

One source put Bankia's exposure to the syndicate at 234 million euros, while newspaper El Pais said Popular's was 264 million euros.

Shares in Bankia, which has already been taken over by the Spanish state, fell 3 percent, and Popular's were down 1.5 percent in Madrid trade.

Popular was the largest non-nationalized bank to fail a stress test on Spanish banks last week, forcing it into a 2.5 billion euro rights issue to bolster capital and avoid international aid.

"We understand this (Gecina) will be one of the credits included in the stress test to the sector," Banco Sabadell said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

GECINA CONNECTION

Gecina, which manages a roughly 11 billion euro portfolio of offices, residential and student housing as well as health facilities, last year launched a 1-billion euro asset sale program to shore up its balance sheet and reduce its debt.

The company, France's biggest office landlord, underwent a boardroom shake-up in October 2011, when its CEO was dismissed over strategic differences, replaced by Bernard Michel, a former executive at French bank Credit Agricole.

Alteco and MAG Import are owned by one-time real estate magnates the Soler family and Joaquin Rivero, who was also the chairman and shareholder of Spanish real estate developer Metrovacesa (MVC.MC).

Metrovacesa is Gecina's other main shareholder, with 26.8 percent, but it is now controlled by Spanish banks after a debt-for-equity swap.

The relationship between Gecina and its Spanish shareholders has been murky from the start. As chairman of Gecina in 2009, Rivero tried to navigate its purchase of a 49 percent stake in another Rivero property firm, Bami, for 108 million euros.

The deal fell through when Gecina's other shareholders rejected it. Rivero is facing corruption charges in France as a result of his attempt to take over one of his own companies through Gecina.

($1 = 0.7731 euros)

(Reporting By Carlos Ruano and Tracy Rucinski; Additional reporting by Sonya Dowsett; Editing by Will Waterman)

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Gold may have topped on Thursday.
Below 1760 would be a sell trigger.
NTA


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Controlled Worldwide Economic Collapse Planned Around Arrival of 2nd Sun Brown Dwarf Star - YouTube

At minute 8:43 George Carlin sums it all up.
Great stuff if you believe in the Great Clown Debate

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Here is a bit from a barchart futures section;

I found it a bit "salesy" that is a come on for new customers. From the article you go to a sales video that asks for your email and then you get a link for a demo he has done with a trader. That is the point that I am at now and it is getting late so I can't give an opinion on it.

Here is my recap of what I have so far:
you must be able to document the process for it to be a valid process.
If ou are not able to write a clear system process you do not have a clear process that is if you aren't able to explain it, you don't understand it.

Three steps
1.what do you do? (record what you do)
2. write it as instructions
3. remove clutter (items not relevant to the process).

----here is the article ----

Stocks - News & Commentary
"Another Gross Error - And The Real Root of The Problem

No one seems to question the quality or user-friendliness of their trading system.

They only challenge the strategy or indicators and rules used in the system.

The error and root of the problem is that everyone thinks they know how to properly document a system, when if fact they don't.

As a result, they don't really know how to recognize a good system (in contrast to strategy or method), or fix one that has issues.

Because they lack this know-how, they live with disappointing results, needless beat themselves up for not being disciplined, and/or continually change systems looking for one that works, passing over several winners simply because they didn't see them or know how to capitalize on them.

Does Your System Have Problems? Here's How To Know It's Solid

This starts with how you document your trading system.

To help you make sure your system is user-friendly and documented in a way that makes it easy to follow and trade consistently, I’ve created a simple 3-step process for you.

Watch the video that explains the process at Trading System Mastery Accelerated Coaching

Always keep in mind that trading psychology means more than just focusing on being more disciplined.

There are actually four main aspects of the psychology of trading and until you tend to all four, your struggles will continue."

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From Larrys email

Note: another reason for a trading journal and questions to ask yourself - bulleting to questions and bolding are my edits.
----------------

Coming Back from a Loss
A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it was necessary, which was his first mistake. It is critical to keep a trading journal.

In my journal I ask myself everyday:
  • Did I follow my trading plan properly?
  • Did I do anything wrong and if so, why?
If I did follow my plan correctly but I lost money, I am not hard on myself. Sometimes this happens! If I didn’t follow my rules but still made money, however, that’s a problem.

I highlight these days so I never repeat this fatal flaw. One of the worst things you can do is ignore your rules and make money, because then you feel that "winging it" is a good plan. It is not.

If this happens, you have to ask yourself;
  • 'Why didn’t I follow my rules?
  • Was it lack of confidence in the system?
  • Fear?
  • Or did my ego want to be the hero that sold the high?"
If you lack confidence in a system, paper-trade it religiously and keep a massive amount of statistics on the outcomes. Be honest with each trade and if the results are good, immediately ban all second-guesses.

If you are playing blackjack and the dealer has a six showing while you were dealt a ten & a nine for nineteen, would you HIT IT because "maybe this time the dealer won’t bust!?" Of course you wouldn’t! You know that the long-term outcome of that decision would be certain disaster.

It is the same with trading: don’t question a trade if the statistics show it’s a winner over the long term.
Fear also exists when a trader doesn’t believe in his system yet. Or it may just be the fear of being wrong, which is another ego-based problem. You have to let go of being right. Trading is about probabilities and making money; not about being right or wrong.

I’ve found that traders who used ego-based decisions to mess with their system or break their rules added little to no value to their trading. In fact it almost always hurts more than it helps. Trading for ego satisfaction is not a good idea, because your ego risks getting damaged during a rough trading patch.

I like to go back and look at my trades over the last week and last month, to see how they performed.
  • Am I repeating my mistakes?
  • If I bought or sold too soon, I want to find out why.
Be honest, and ask good questions:
  • What worked?
  • What will I do differently next time?
  • What was I feeling when I ignored that trade?
Keep notes on trades you liked but didn’t make.What held you back? Do you notice any patterns causing you to miss opportunities? FIX THEM!

My friend listened intently and took notes. He will be a better trader for it.

Best trades to you,

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage

you have really inspired me to be extra serious about my trading jounal and soon i will statr my thread for those journals

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Here is a bit from a barchart futures section;
Three steps
1.what do you do? (record what you do)
2. write it as instructions
3. remove clutter (items not relevant to the process).

Well I got to minute 25 last night and then went another 5 mins berfore giving up on his "demo".
The client, Jorge, is a English second language speaker. I understood his discription but the sales guy didn't seem to and it became painfully slow and I gave up listening at min 30 (another 30min to go).

As an example Jorge stated that the first part of the system was 3 moving averages. When the medium crossed down on the slower you had a short direction, and then the fastest needed to cross back up over the two and then down below them a second time for a trigger.

He sold at market with a stop -6pips and a target +3pips all entered at once.

The problem he had was that two different speed stocastics had to be trending down and below certain levels (I didn't get that far but it sounded as it the fastest 2 min sto had to be less than 50% and the slower Sto 5 min(?) had to be trending down.

Also he needed a Macd to be below the signal or something.

The whole thing could have been tremendously speeded up if before the start of the demo Jorge had been asked to provide a screensnap of all the conditions being met and explained how they where met - before the salesguy started to try and document it.

I felt it was a very poor demo so I gave up.

I'm not saying there isn't something in his idea of document a system so I'll go ahead and see what I can do in a notebook for mine - time permitting.

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smusa700 View Post
you have really inspired me to be extra serious about my trading jounal and soon i will statr my thread for those journals

Good stuff I look forward to reading it!!
Let me know when you start.

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Price Limit Guide


About Revised CME Globex Hours for Equity Index Contracts:

There will be a 15-minute halt in electronic trading from 3:15 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. CT.
Trading on CME Globex will resume at 3:30 p.m. CT for the same trade date for 45 minutes, closing at 4:15 p.m. CT. This includes Fridays, meaning that the end of the trading week on CME Globex also will be changed to 4:15 p.m.
Trades that occur between 3:30 p.m.-4:15 p.m. will be subject to the daily settlement prices calculated at 3:15 p.m. CT (i.e., settlement times will not change).
Trading will be closed from 4:15 p.m.-5:00 p.m. CT.
Trading re-opens at 5:00 p.m. on CME Globex (Sundays-Thursdays) for the new trade date.
Changes are effective for both U.S. and international equity index futures and options
---------------
So this means, I think, that it doesn't trade from 15:15 to 15:30 and from 16:15 to 17:00.
In effect it is the same as before except there is an extra 45min lost.
The other change is that the end of the ETH hours for Monday is 16:15 Monday and that Tuesday's session starts at 17:00 Monday instead of 15:30 Monday.

pretty stupid and confusing.

It also changes limit move calcs - but my mind glazed over trying to figure it out!

What a hokey outfit.
First they didn't do their job on the MFGlobal accounting fraud and now this.

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So you may have figured out that the ETH session for Monday doesn't end at 15:15 Monday.
There is a little fragment tacked on to the ETH session after the RTH close - not part of Tuesday but added back to Monday. From 15:30 to 16:15 = 45 mins this fragment of time is added to Monday's ETH session

here is a chart (the vertical line is at the end of the fragment)


so the ETH high and low are possibly changed if the fragment has a value outside of the range from 17:00 Sunday to 15:15 Monday


This was the case on Monday 19 Nov 2012 - as the ETH high was 1385.75.
The RTH high was 1384.75 and greater than the o/n high of 1371.50 (so under the old system the RTH high would have been the ETH high -- but no longer!!)
ETH Session data:



So you cannot gather the data for the ETH session for Monday until the fragment has traded 15:30 to 16:15

This can change things like pivot points on the ETH session.
also the ETH close.
(The VWAP is still 15:14:30 to 15:15 I think(??) - go figure!!)

The next screensnap is the RTH data for Monday (source IB - so...)


So the RTH close is 1382.75 (which would have been the ETH close under the old system) however now the ETH close is the fragment close 1381

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I placed a stop-limit order with a wide limit and it was rejected. In response to my inquiry IB has replied:

Further to our chat, I have located on CME website a link for product reference:"
GCC Product Reference Sheet - Electronic Platform Information Console - Confluence
If you click the bottom .xls file it would open up the product sheet. The price band for ES futures is 6."

(I have attached this file for the convenience of others. What to do if you don't have excel? I guess the CME thinks that is your problem.)


----------my reply is ------------
It seems very tight considering fat finger Tuesday.

The exchange appears to transfer all risk to the clients and the job of the market makers as well.
There should not be a band at all. This allows them to reject peoples protective stop orders in a free-falling market. (market order stops are likewise rejected in a free fall as "too far off the market."

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Today, Thursday 20 Dec is an excellent example of why wide stops should be allowed and why the theives at CME don't allow them. In the flash crash many with protective market-stop will have had their stops rejected and suffered huge losses.

A 30 point drop in seconds, can wipe them out and create enoromous profits for those who organized this.

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Source:
James McShirley: There is no doubt the past month has been a pre-planned, coordinated attack on gold and silver. | ZeroHedge

'zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-12-20/james-mcshirley-there-no-doubt-past-month-has-been-pre-planned-coordinated-at

Anything that has a 90% chance of happening at specific times might as well be listed in the TV Guide programming. Since the CME curiously (at the time) lowered gold and silver margins gold has dropped $120, and silver $5. In light of the subsequent attacks that too looks very much coordinated. Think of it, since late October ALL of these have had a 90% and above chance of occurring:

* PM fix lower, or no higher than $5 than AM fix.
* Smash on the Comex open.
* Smash on the London close.
* Smash on the post-Comex pit close.
* Smash on the Comex access trade reopen.

If any one of these anomalies had a 90% probability of occurring it would be highly suspicious.

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someone asked for VIX historical EOD data.

I have attached it below.
It starts in Sep 2003 and the source is Kinetick - free and exported with Ninja free version.

Here is sample of the CSV file that is attached.


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sold

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11:24 AM 1/9/2013

Possible price,time map

M shaped day?
{edit should be 11:52 not 11:12 for low of "m"}


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updated the map


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10:33 AM 2/1/2013
looks like I missed the (first end)
FE
too late to bed and computer prbs this morning
time estimate was 8:50am
actual FE was L1500 @ 8:51




well - might as well pack-it in.. no trade today . argh

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11:20 AM 2/1/2013

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11:26 AM 2/1/2013

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looking to close

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10:55 AM 2/4/2013

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With the Chinese New Year (10 Feb) the Asian markets are quiet and the market here seems directionless.
I have a lot of mixed signals today and its 10am without a clear FE. For me it would have been better for it to push a little lower through the 1511 support and as you can see it hasn't hit the low zone though close 1509.75 versus 1509.25


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