Trading (Page 4) - Trading Journals | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals


Trading
Started:January 30th, 2011 (12:29 PM) by aquarian1 Views / Replies:40,203 / 682
Last Reply:November 25th, 2016 (11:28 AM) Attachments:357

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 357  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

Trading

Old February 24th, 2011, 05:08 PM   #31 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Thursday, February 24, 2011

today I found an interesting site called
Program Trading, Fair Value, Index Arbitrage Values - indexArb.com

This morning from Briefing.com (edited)
"9:05amMeanwhile, Germany's DAX is currently down 1.0% so that it is pace for its fourth straight loss. German bourse is trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than a month. Slide has been led by RWE AG and Allianz (AZ), which reported a gain in fourth quarter profit and announced to raise its dividend. Siemens (SI) has provided some broad market support, as has BASF, which reported a sharp rise in fourth quarter income. Higher oil prices have also helped BP Plc (BP), which has joined fellow natural resource plays BG Group, BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American to provide support to Britain's FTSE. FTSE is down 0.2% with weakness in HSBC (HBC), British American Tobacco, Vodafone (VOD), and Rio Tinto (RIO)."

After my morning rush of data collection etc, I had my orders in and my alert set. The first key time was about 8:39 and though they moved it up it did not have the usually spikey look of a first end. I think I had in my mind it would be an upslash day or perhaps checkdown. In any case the lower edge of the HZ was 1310.25 and est high at 1311.75. (i'm not quite sure how I ended up this this as a quick hand estimate had the high at1308). It got above the SA line of 1305.75 and made a high at 1310@9:21.

Well 1310 is one tick below my alarm setting of 1310.25 and the alarm did go off. Also they only ran the TICK to +800 area. At this point I wrote:
"Don't be in a rush. They could bounce it around all day. No need for them to do anything. Low stops taken out in o/n session and high stops at 1308 just done. TICK has been to +800 - might not be a spikey top just a slow roll-over.'

Well the day was quite unusual. Very zig-zaggy action. Low at 1292.50 @ 12:57 and then up to 1308.50 at 14:33.
nearly closing time ... back to work

Reply With Quote
     

Old February 24th, 2011, 09:10 PM   #32 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Excellent on estimates today

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Observations:

WR "V" day Rng=17.50

mech est of dir=-1, act dir=0
dif open to close (today)= -2.00

mech est of mid chg=-1, act mid chg=-1
chg in midpt -5.75


30min dir,chg up to 1312.00
act= 1310.00 09:21
(est was incorrect)

Rng est=18.00, Act= 17.50
Aver 17.75
Mode 19.00
Median 20.13
Fork range est = 7.25

--notes---------
Estimates were excellent today! - finally in sync after Monday holiday

Signals:
SELL near open - wrong
FE=LE - wrong

(On the graph the 17.5+16pts is for motivation. It shows the sum of two good trades.)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old February 25th, 2011, 11:27 AM   #33 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Friday - Crooks Day


Looks like a garbage long T top day.
Friday is Crooks Day

I m way too tired going back to bed!!

trade setup:

Play stop runs and drop setup

Sell at 1317.50 sell 1,
Then sell #2 at 1314.75
Then sell #3 at 1313.
Then close out at 1310


.........


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old February 25th, 2011, 06:54 PM   #34 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

In the trade for 3

In the trade for 3 at average cost of 1315

Stop on 3 at 1326.50 Sell one at 1296
Carry the runners 2 at 1324.50 and see.
Possible loss $2,775.

-18.5 *3 * $50 = -$2,775

Sell one at 1296

Carry the runners = two for breakdown...

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: doc Looks like a garbage long T top day.doc (131.0 KB, 11 views)
Reply With Quote
     

Old February 28th, 2011, 07:08 PM   #35 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Futures Edge on FIO
General comments:
This was an unusual day. We had a gap up of +5 and then a narrow range of 9.75.
Also we had a double top at exactly 1329. What makes this interesting is that usually if they are making a double top the second top will be a bit higher than the first to take out the stops above the 1329 of 9:31am.

This is like money in the bank to them. If they don't take them out in the o/n session and if the open is reasonably strong (say greater than 1328.50) then we would expect them to run them tomorrow. Preliminary estimates of tomorrow high reflect this.

Signals:
FE= FE=? --- this means the spreadsheet didn't know
SELL/B @ 09:13 -- 9:23 was the actual time

Times:
510 Rule= 9:11
PT Rule= 08:54
FEa= 08:33 --- This was fine correct time was 8:31
FEb= 09:13
RTH low 13:42 --- New formula today actual was 13:04 (I'll leave it for a few days before modifying)

Switches:
Dir30= up to 1327.00 ----was fine but i got up late and so this may not be valid
Dir = +1. today the dif open to close (today) was 2.75--if it is <4.25 then that =0 -- so Dir = +1 is wrong
Mid chg= 1 9.25 =change in midpts yest to today --if it is <4.25=0 -- correct as +9.25 > 4.25 =>correct.

Estimate Levels:
FEa= 1323.25 --- FEa was 1322.75
FEb= 1328.50 --- FEb was 1329

(Explanation: on some days, as today, there is a double first end.

The first end is defined as the high or the low of the day happening between 8:30 and 10:30am CT. Today we had a double first end. I have this notation because buying at 1322.75 @8:31 and selling at 1329 @ 9;23 =+6.75 ( which is >5 points the minimum points profit potential, I will take on a trade) and allows more room for error on the buystop.

The buystop is maximum 5pts. Today it was at 1331.25 and the lowest I would have sold is the bottom of the High zone ie 1326.75 = 4.5pts potential loss to buystop. If I had some of the +6.75 potential of FEa to FEb and if my estimate of the high was wrong and I get stopped out then that offsets the loss. Hence the reason for the FEa and FEb.)

Actual Levels:
FEa= 1322.75
FE= 1329.00 @ 09:23

Estimated Rng: Mech= 15.75, H-L= 15.00
Actual Rng = 9.75

So in this case the est of the range is was way off. This sometimes happens on a gap up days like today. The difference of yest close to today's open was +5.00.

I need to improve my mechanical estimation of the range (above 15.75). Currently, it is influenced by the 3day ATR and the 3d ma of the range (which were 18.0 and 15.50 respectively). I need to make some adjustments so that if other indications are for a range contraction or expansion I leave these out of the mechanical estimate calculation. Today a range estimate called "yest/avg 5d" was 10.75 - not 9.75 but closer.


Trades: none - got up late today. and when there is a cabbage signal and the est range is not WR then no trading is indicated.

Bottom Line - If I had of traded today the high zone was great (see graph) the trick would have been to close out at the low of 1319.25 with my range estimate so far off. It is very unlikely I would have reversed and gone long.

Attached Files
Register to download File Type: doc journal.doc (70.5 KB, 11 views)

Last edited by aquarian1; February 28th, 2011 at 08:04 PM.
Reply With Quote
     

Old March 2nd, 2011, 12:31 PM   #36 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

On Tuesday, 1 March, instead of rushing into my morning data collection to be ready by open,
I just sat with my morning coffee, the computer still off and did some reflective thinking.

The results while not earth-shattering were important.

I concluded that:
  • I was working myself to exhaustion
  • this was unsustainable
  • I must make my health my number one priority.

With 14hr workdays I felt I barely had enough time to breathe.
I know that, for me, my body needs a solid 8:30 hours sleep and works better with more.
I wasn't getting my sleep and by Friday I was exhausted.
Saturday and Sunday instead of rest were work catch-up.

Yesterday, after work, I went to the health food store to buy a couple of things.
The young lady serving me, added a complimentary copy of the Alive magazine to my carrywith grocery bag. She pointed at the cover and said:
"See.. Men's Health", emphasizing the word "men's".

My neighour, Jim had had some problems with dry scalp and I had urged him to get a filter for the shower that takes out the chlorine (and lead) from the water. This had me digging out health books for him, which in turn got me thinking about health and how I had neglected mine.

As men, (not retired old fuddy-duddies, but those still with the bit between our teeth) we tend to work ourselves too hard. Society's pressure to earn money and achieve driving us relentlessly.

Yet we know in our heart of hearts, health is number one.

Money and success are of no value without our health.

I have resolved to work less hours, get more sleep and restart my exercise program.
If I don't get all my work done - then I don't get it done.

I found out that all/most(?) of the vitamins and supplements I had been taking over the years contain magnesium stearate "(lubricant)".Note: magnesium stearate is also called stearic acid!

Turns out this is a toxic oil they had to supplement formula to allow them to run the machines faster. Sometimes listed and sometimes not.

This information was very depressing to me. I already spend far more than most people on these items than most people and now instead of buying them at the drugstore I would have to go to the health food store and pay even more for them!

I'm not what I'm going to do. I guess I must:
  • find ways to make my work hours more productive,
  • reduce and simplify my work and data collection,
  • and perhaps schedule only trading 4 or 3 days a week instead of 5.

I know I must make changes.

Today I was tired when the alarm went off (in bed too late and not a good sleep),
so I just turned it off, rolled-over, and went back to sleep.

If some of this resonates with you I hope it encourages you to make the changes you need in your life and restore health and fitness to the number one spot in your life priorities.

Reply With Quote
     

Old March 2nd, 2011, 12:42 PM   #37 (permalink)
Elite Member
vancouver, canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader 6.5 and ZF Webtrader
Broker/Data: Mirus/Zen
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 50 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 59 given, 51 received


aquarian1 View Post
On Tuesday, 1 March, instead of rushing into my morning data collection to be ready by open,
I just sat with my morning coffee, the computer still off and did some reflective thinking.

The results while not earth-shattering were important.

I concluded that:
  • I was working myself to exhaustion
  • this was unsustainable
  • I must make my health my number one priority.

With 14hr workdays I felt I barely had enough time to breathe.
I know that, for me, my body needs a solid 8:30 hours sleep and works better with more.
I wasn't getting my sleep and by Friday I was exhausted.
Saturday and Sunday instead of rest were work catch-up.

Yesterday, after work, I went to the health food store to buy a couple of things.
The young lady serving me, added a complimentary copy of the Alive magazine to my carrywith grocery bag. She pointed at the cover and said:
"See.. Men's Health", emphasizing the word "men's".

My neighour, Jim had had some problems with dry scalp and I had urged him to get a filter for the shower that takes out the chlorine (and lead) from the water. This had me digging out health books for him, which in turn got me thinking about health and how I had neglected mine.

As men, (not retired old fuddy-duddies, but those still with the bit between our teeth) we tend to work ourselves too hard. Society's pressure to earn money and achieve driving us relentlessly.

Yet we know in our heart of hearts, health is number one.

Money and success are of no value without our health.

I have resolved to work less hours, get more sleep and restart my exercise program.
If I don't get all my work done - then I don't get it done.

I found out that all/most(?) of the vitamins and supplements I had been taking over the years contain magnesium stearate "(lubricant)". Turns out this is a toxic oil they had to supplement formula to allow them to run the machines faster. Sometimes listed and sometimes not.

This information was very depressing to me. I already spend far more than most people on these items than most people and now instead of buying them at the drugstore I would have to go to the health food store and pay even more for them!

I'm not what I'm going to do. I guess I must:
  • find ways to make my work hours more productive,
  • reduce and simplify my work and data collection,
  • and perhaps schedule only trading 4 or 3 days a week instead of 5.

I know I must make changes.

Today I was tired when the alarm went off (in bed too late and not a good sleep),
so I just turned it off, rolled-over, and went back to sleep.

If some of this resonates with you I hope it encourages you to make the changes you need in your life and restore health and fitness to the number one spot in your life priorities.

I'm glad that you have come to this realization. Money and success are nothing without health. I wish my husband would realize that too

I'm pretty sure I know the health food store you went into and they are very good there. I know it costs a little more for what you need but the advice is invaluable.

Seeing as you like to do reasearch (or so it seems to me) perhaps look into a vegan diet. I started eating about 90% vegan 2 months ago (not for health reasons but, I won't get into that here.... lol) and since then I have read so many wonderful things about what it can do for your body. Actually reversing alot of ailments and perhaps reducing the amount of supplements you need. And it's alot cheaper to eat this way too.

Anyways, take care, and thanks for keeping up your journal with so many other things on your plate.

~T

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to tammyd549 for this post:
     

Old March 8th, 2011, 11:54 AM   #38 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Dancing with the high end

Mr. Harmon:
"We have resolved to do what all good Britishers do in a time of crisis."
Mr. Lucas:
"What's that? Take decisive action?"
Mr. Harmon:
"Put the kettle on."

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     
The following 2 users say Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
     

Old March 8th, 2011, 12:07 PM   #39 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

touch, once, twice, thrice.

timer is set...
order is ready...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old March 8th, 2011, 12:33 PM   #40 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kent, England
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker/Data: Infinity
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Mickey Caine's Avatar
 
Posts: 196 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 1,607 given, 347 received


Remember if things are not going to well you can always kick Mrs Slocombe's Pussy..

Reply With Quote
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals > Trading

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:15 PM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts

Page generated 2016-12-04 in 0.18 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.146.177.118