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Trading

  #381 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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banksters and collapse

Controlled Worldwide Economic Collapse Planned Around Arrival of 2nd Sun Brown Dwarf Star - YouTube

At minute 8:43 George Carlin sums it all up.
Great stuff if you believe in the Great Clown Debate

Good trading to everyone.
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  #382 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Document the process

Here is a bit from a barchart futures section;

I found it a bit "salesy" that is a come on for new customers. From the article you go to a sales video that asks for your email and then you get a link for a demo he has done with a trader. That is the point that I am at now and it is getting late so I can't give an opinion on it.

Here is my recap of what I have so far:
you must be able to document the process for it to be a valid process.
If ou are not able to write a clear system process you do not have a clear process that is if you aren't able to explain it, you don't understand it.

Three steps
1.what do you do? (record what you do)
2. write it as instructions
3. remove clutter (items not relevant to the process).

----here is the article ----

Stocks - News & Commentary
"Another Gross Error - And The Real Root of The Problem

No one seems to question the quality or user-friendliness of their trading system.

They only challenge the strategy or indicators and rules used in the system.

The error and root of the problem is that everyone thinks they know how to properly document a system, when if fact they don't.

As a result, they don't really know how to recognize a good system (in contrast to strategy or method), or fix one that has issues.

Because they lack this know-how, they live with disappointing results, needless beat themselves up for not being disciplined, and/or continually change systems looking for one that works, passing over several winners simply because they didn't see them or know how to capitalize on them.

Does Your System Have Problems? Here's How To Know It's Solid

This starts with how you document your trading system.

To help you make sure your system is user-friendly and documented in a way that makes it easy to follow and trade consistently, Iíve created a simple 3-step process for you.

Watch the video that explains the process at Trading System Mastery Accelerated Coaching

Always keep in mind that trading psychology means more than just focusing on being more disciplined.

There are actually four main aspects of the psychology of trading and until you tend to all four, your struggles will continue."

Good trading to everyone.
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  #383 (permalink)
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KANO STATE NIGERIA
 
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aquarian1 View Post
From Larrys email

Note: another reason for a trading journal and questions to ask yourself - bulleting to questions and bolding are my edits.
----------------

Coming Back from a Loss
A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you donít have one?"

He didnít think it was necessary, which was his first mistake. It is critical to keep a trading journal.

In my journal I ask myself everyday:
  • Did I follow my trading plan properly?
  • Did I do anything wrong and if so, why?
If I did follow my plan correctly but I lost money, I am not hard on myself. Sometimes this happens! If I didnít follow my rules but still made money, however, thatís a problem.

I highlight these days so I never repeat this fatal flaw. One of the worst things you can do is ignore your rules and make money, because then you feel that "winging it" is a good plan. It is not.

If this happens, you have to ask yourself;
  • 'Why didnít I follow my rules?
  • Was it lack of confidence in the system?
  • Fear?
  • Or did my ego want to be the hero that sold the high?"
If you lack confidence in a system, paper-trade it religiously and keep a massive amount of statistics on the outcomes. Be honest with each trade and if the results are good, immediately ban all second-guesses.

If you are playing blackjack and the dealer has a six showing while you were dealt a ten & a nine for nineteen, would you HIT IT because "maybe this time the dealer wonít bust!?" Of course you wouldnít! You know that the long-term outcome of that decision would be certain disaster.

It is the same with trading: donít question a trade if the statistics show itís a winner over the long term.
Fear also exists when a trader doesnít believe in his system yet. Or it may just be the fear of being wrong, which is another ego-based problem. You have to let go of being right. Trading is about probabilities and making money; not about being right or wrong.

Iíve found that traders who used ego-based decisions to mess with their system or break their rules added little to no value to their trading. In fact it almost always hurts more than it helps. Trading for ego satisfaction is not a good idea, because your ego risks getting damaged during a rough trading patch.

I like to go back and look at my trades over the last week and last month, to see how they performed.
  • Am I repeating my mistakes?
  • If I bought or sold too soon, I want to find out why.
Be honest, and ask good questions:
  • What worked?
  • What will I do differently next time?
  • What was I feeling when I ignored that trade?
Keep notes on trades you liked but didnít make.What held you back? Do you notice any patterns causing you to miss opportunities? FIX THEM!

My friend listened intently and took notes. He will be a better trader for it.

Best trades to you,

Larry Levin
President & Founder- Trading Advantage

you have really inspired me to be extra serious about my trading jounal and soon i will statr my thread for those journals

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  #384 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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aquarian1 View Post
Here is a bit from a barchart futures section;
Three steps
1.what do you do? (record what you do)
2. write it as instructions
3. remove clutter (items not relevant to the process).

Well I got to minute 25 last night and then went another 5 mins berfore giving up on his "demo".
The client, Jorge, is a English second language speaker. I understood his discription but the sales guy didn't seem to and it became painfully slow and I gave up listening at min 30 (another 30min to go).

As an example Jorge stated that the first part of the system was 3 moving averages. When the medium crossed down on the slower you had a short direction, and then the fastest needed to cross back up over the two and then down below them a second time for a trigger.

He sold at market with a stop -6pips and a target +3pips all entered at once.

The problem he had was that two different speed stocastics had to be trending down and below certain levels (I didn't get that far but it sounded as it the fastest 2 min sto had to be less than 50% and the slower Sto 5 min(?) had to be trending down.

Also he needed a Macd to be below the signal or something.

The whole thing could have been tremendously speeded up if before the start of the demo Jorge had been asked to provide a screensnap of all the conditions being met and explained how they where met - before the salesguy started to try and document it.

I felt it was a very poor demo so I gave up.

I'm not saying there isn't something in his idea of document a system so I'll go ahead and see what I can do in a notebook for mine - time permitting.

Good trading to everyone.
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  #385 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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smusa700 View Post
you have really inspired me to be extra serious about my trading jounal and soon i will statr my thread for those journals

Good stuff I look forward to reading it!!
Let me know when you start.

Good trading to everyone.
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  #386 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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new es hours

Price Limit Guide


About Revised CME Globex Hours for Equity Index Contracts:

There will be a 15-minute halt in electronic trading from 3:15 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. CT.
Trading on CME Globex will resume at 3:30 p.m. CT for the same trade date for 45 minutes, closing at 4:15 p.m. CT. This includes Fridays, meaning that the end of the trading week on CME Globex also will be changed to 4:15 p.m.
Trades that occur between 3:30 p.m.-4:15 p.m. will be subject to the daily settlement prices calculated at 3:15 p.m. CT (i.e., settlement times will not change).
Trading will be closed from 4:15 p.m.-5:00 p.m. CT.
Trading re-opens at 5:00 p.m. on CME Globex (Sundays-Thursdays) for the new trade date.
Changes are effective for both U.S. and international equity index futures and options
---------------
So this means, I think, that it doesn't trade from 15:15 to 15:30 and from 16:15 to 17:00.
In effect it is the same as before except there is an extra 45min lost.
The other change is that the end of the ETH hours for Monday is 16:15 Monday and that Tuesday's session starts at 17:00 Monday instead of 15:30 Monday.

pretty stupid and confusing.

It also changes limit move calcs - but my mind glazed over trying to figure it out!

What a hokey outfit.
First they didn't do their job on the MFGlobal accounting fraud and now this.

Good trading to everyone.
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  #387 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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change in hours part 2

So you may have figured out that the ETH session for Monday doesn't end at 15:15 Monday.
There is a little fragment tacked on to the ETH session after the RTH close - not part of Tuesday but added back to Monday. From 15:30 to 16:15 = 45 mins this fragment of time is added to Monday's ETH session

here is a chart (the vertical line is at the end of the fragment)
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so the ETH high and low are possibly changed if the fragment has a value outside of the range from 17:00 Sunday to 15:15 Monday
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


This was the case on Monday 19 Nov 2012 - as the ETH high was 1385.75.
The RTH high was 1384.75 and greater than the o/n high of 1371.50 (so under the old system the RTH high would have been the ETH high -- but no longer!!)
ETH Session data:

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So you cannot gather the data for the ETH session for Monday until the fragment has traded 15:30 to 16:15

This can change things like pivot points on the ETH session.
also the ETH close.
(The VWAP is still 15:14:30 to 15:15 I think(??) - go figure!!)

The next screensnap is the RTH data for Monday (source IB - so...)
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So the RTH close is 1382.75 (which would have been the ETH close under the old system) however now the ETH close is the fragment close 1381

Good trading to everyone.

Last edited by aquarian1; November 20th, 2012 at 05:19 PM.
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  #388 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Overtight stops are another way the CME plans to steal

I placed a stop-limit order with a wide limit and it was rejected. In response to my inquiry IB has replied:

Further to our chat, I have located on CME website a link for product reference:"
GCC Product Reference Sheet - Electronic Platform Information Console - Confluence
If you click the bottom .xls file it would open up the product sheet. The price band for ES futures is 6."

(I have attached this file for the convenience of others. What to do if you don't have excel? I guess the CME thinks that is your problem.)
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----------my reply is ------------
It seems very tight considering fat finger Tuesday.

The exchange appears to transfer all risk to the clients and the job of the market makers as well.
There should not be a band at all. This allows them to reject peoples protective stop orders in a free-falling market. (market order stops are likewise rejected in a free fall as "too far off the market."

Good trading to everyone.
Attached Files
Register to download File Type: xls Globex Product Reference.xls (683.0 KB, 3 views)

Last edited by aquarian1; December 12th, 2012 at 10:50 AM.
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  #389 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Why the CME rejected stop-limits with wide stops

Today, Thursday 20 Dec is an excellent example of why wide stops should be allowed and why the theives at CME don't allow them. In the flash crash many with protective market-stop will have had their stops rejected and suffered huge losses.

A 30 point drop in seconds, can wipe them out and create enoromous profits for those who organized this.

Good trading to everyone.
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  #390 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Flash crash in silver and gold


Source:
James McShirley: There is no doubt the past month has been a pre-planned, coordinated attack on gold and silver. | ZeroHedge

'zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-12-20/james-mcshirley-there-no-doubt-past-month-has-been-pre-planned-coordinated-at

Anything that has a 90% chance of happening at specific times might as well be listed in the TV Guide programming. Since the CME curiously (at the time) lowered gold and silver margins gold has dropped $120, and silver $5. In light of the subsequent attacks that too looks very much coordinated. Think of it, since late October ALL of these have had a 90% and above chance of occurring:

* PM fix lower, or no higher than $5 than AM fix.
* Smash on the Comex open.
* Smash on the London close.
* Smash on the post-Comex pit close.
* Smash on the Comex access trade reopen.

If any one of these anomalies had a 90% probability of occurring it would be highly suspicious.

Good trading to everyone.
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