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Started:January 30th, 2011 (12:29 PM) by aquarian1 Views / Replies:40,208 / 682
Last Reply:November 25th, 2016 (11:28 AM) Attachments:357

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Trading

Old July 2nd, 2012, 12:17 PM   #361 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
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I'm observer now -- how about you?

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Old July 2nd, 2012, 12:23 PM   #362 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Manipulation

To me clearly the ramp on Friday was manipulation

(I guess zero-edge agrees - well probably everyone except those with the "new evolving currency concept" in an ever expanding Fed manadate ... blah, blah blah. )

I said "they" would ramp it up they did. As and interesting side-note the "secret" number came out
see
https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-148.html#post232285
17 June secret number 1360.

High Friday =1359.50

This morning ... H1361.00 at 08:47


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Conspiracy theorists eat your heart out
Nothing posted here is trading advice. Everything posted is educational information only. Futures and other trading involve the risk of loss. yada, yada, yada....

Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 2nd, 2012, 12:34 PM   #363 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Larry's Friday am email


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Farcical – pertaining to or the nature of farce; absurd; ludicrous. Well, now I know how to describe what happened on Globex last night: farcical!

The mini-S&P (ES) rallied in a MAJOR way last night – spiking to at least 1342.25 (I am actually writing this now, but you will be reading it in the morning). The ES exploded ~26.00 points from the low because of…wait for it…rumors of potential deals from the latest so-called “summit” in Europe.

Just one hour after the meat of the rally took hold, the Italians have already said the so-called agreement is a non-starter. They will not play ball. Farcical, indeed!

As I traded the ES first long, then short, I read the following headlines from Bloomberg…


EURO LEADERS RENOUNCE SENIORITY ON SPAIN LOANS
EURO LEADERS AGREE TO OPEN FUNDS WITHOUT AUSTERITY PROGRAMS
BANKS CAN BE RECAPPED DIRECTLY WITH AID FUNDS, VAN ROMPUY SAYS


Then…


MERKEL SAYS EU LEADERS TO CONTINUE WORK ON LONG-TERM MEASURES
JUNCKER SAYS WOULD HAVE `HOPED FOR MORE' FROM EU SUMMIT
EU BANK SUPERVISION IS CONDITION FOR ESM LOANS TO BANKS: RUTTE


Frau Merkel says “EU leaders will continue to work on long-term measures” but that won’t fly. Re-read the prior bolded headline, which says it all: money for nothing and chicks for free. (Dire Straits – Money for Nothing)

Although this nonsense has been regurgitated over and over and over again, it makes no difference: the headline-seeking algorithms controlled by the self-aware SkyNet supercomputer will buy it every time.

Along with the regurgitation of the “we’re saved again” bull$#it is the ever-present “no we’re not” – also known as reality. When the ES reached the aforementioned 1342.25 level, Mario Monti made a few headlines himself.


MONTI SAYS EURO LEADERS HAVE NO PLAN FOR BOOSTING BAILOUT FUNDS
ITALY HAS NO INTENTION TO `APPLY FOR THIS,' MONTI SAYS
IRELAND'S KENNY SAYS WHAT WAS IMPOSSIBLE IS NOW POSSIBLE


Apparently Ireland’s Mr. Kenny is happy about the initial headline that read there is free money coming with no austerity. Yeah, that’s gonna work out fine.

Isn’t it interesting how this is happening right before the end of the quarter? Nothing’s actually rigged – right? Well, US interest rates are “set” (read: rigged) by the Federal Reserve. And LIBOR is illegally rigged. Certain health care stocks exploded 1 minute BEFORE the Supreme Court ruled in favor of those exact stocks. That was clearly leaked, which means it was clearly rigged. But not this – right? Just another coincidence I’m sure.

Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 4th, 2012, 02:01 PM   #364 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, euro dragged lower by grim economic data46 minutes ago by Thomson Reuters

* European shares edge down from two-month highs

* Euro struggles on weak data, ECB meeting eyed

* Trade subdued with U.S. closed for Independence Day

By Richard Hubbard

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters) - World shares, the euro and oil prices fell on Wednesday as evidence grew of the headwinds facing the global economy, though hopes of policy easing by major central banks limited the falls.

Strong demand for safe-haven German debt at a bond auction also signalled that investors remain worried about the implementation of recently agreed measures to help ease the euro zone's debt crisis, with Spanish and Italian bond yields higher.

However, activity was very subdued with U.S. markets closed for the Independence Day holiday and before policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England on Thursday.

In the quiet market Germany still found it easy to sell 3.3 billion euros ($4.2 billion) of 5-year government bonds, receiving bids for 2.7 times the amount on offer at an average yield of just 0.52 percent.

"What we are seeing is that ... this demand for safety remains intact," said Michael Leister, rate strategist at DZ Bank.

After the auction 10-year Spanish bond yields rose 14 basis points to 6.4 percent, and the Italian equivalent rose 12.5 basis points to 5.77 percent.

The euro steadied against the dollar to trade around $1.2525 , under pressure from widespread expectations that the ECB is about to cut interest rates.

The single currency fell to an 11-1/2 year low against the higher-yielding Swedish crown when Sweden's central bank kept its main interest rates unchanged.

EQUITIES SLIDE

European share markets ended three days of gains, with the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares finishing down 0.2 percent at 1,044.29 points, retreating from a two-month high set on Tuesday.

MSCI's world equity index also snapped a three-day rally, dipping 0.1 percent to 316.03 points.

Equity markets began their latest rally on Friday, having fallen sharply for much of June, after European Union leaders agreed on new measures to support the region's banks and address funding problems facing Spain.

Investors have also been encouraged back into riskier asset markets by the belief that the ECB will cut rates on Thursday and that it may also inject fresh funds to help boost the region's struggling economy.

A Reuters poll of economists showed a majority of economists expect the ECB to cut its main rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent on Thursday, while money market traders are evenly split on whether the central bank will cut the deposit rate, a separate survey showed.

"Investors will also want to see if the ECB President (Mario Draghi) will highlight downside risks to growth and inflation, which will set the ground for more easing," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS.

The Bank of England is expected to launch a third round of monetary stimulus at its meeting.

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN

Data releases from across the globe continue to add weight to the view that the world economy is slowing down.

An survey of private Chinese service sector firms showed their activity growing at the slowest rate in 10 months in June as new orders growth cooled, although the services Purchasing Managers Index has shown 43 months of expansion.

Another survey revealed that Germany's services sector unexpectedly stagnated in June, ending an eight-month period of expansion as new orders dropped.

A composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the whole euro area, which surveyed thousands of companies, was revised up in June, but has been below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for nine of the last 10 months.

"The PMIs are bottoming out at a level consistent with further contraction of (economic) activity in the second quarter," said James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale, of the euro zone PMIs.

COMMODITIES STEADY

The prospect of further central bank monetary easing has supported the prices of gold and other commodities this week, but the increasingly grim news about the health of the world economy has sparked a retreat.

"We believe that the euro zone crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff, and the possibility of a hard landing in China will give the markets plenty to worry about and will keep risk appetite low and constrained," Societe Generale said.

The bank has lowered its price outlook for Brent crude by $5 a barrel to $100.

Brent crude, which had also been gaining on rising tension over Iran's nuclear programme, was $1.10 lower at $99.58 per barrel after jumping more than 3 percent on Tuesday.

Brent crude was trading as low as $88.49 on June 22.

Spot gold was little changed, holding near a two-week high of $1,624.70 an ounce at $1,616.05, having risen more than 4 percent since last Friday.

The gold market is likely to remain steady before the release of U.S. monthly employment data on Friday, which may encourage talk the Federal Reserve will join with its European counterparts in taking additional policy easing measures.

The U.S. monthly jobs report is expected to show 90,000 workers were added to non-farm payrolls in June and the unemployment rate held at 8.2 percent.

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Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 4th, 2012, 02:05 PM   #365 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Futures Edge on FIO

dario1 View Post
I'm observer now -- how about you?

Made and HXD trade for my mom.
She made $2,000 24 May to 3 July

I'm waiting for this dog to roll-over and kicking myself for not being ready and able to be in the corn market.
Pull up a chart. Positively makes me ill to think I missed this rocketship!

Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 4th, 2012, 07:47 PM   #366 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
I'm waiting for this dog to roll-over and kicking myself for not being ready and able to be in the corn market.
Pull up a chart. Positively makes me ill to think I missed this rocketship!

I try to stay away from my roots as possible, so corn and other agricultural commodity are not my favourites
BTW, what time do you trade? I usually trade evenings and mornings -- I still have a day job.

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Old July 4th, 2012, 09:45 PM   #367 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

I work - gathering numbers, analysis updating spreadsheets etc all day every day.
Trade 8:30 - 15:15 CT

(BTW please don't use the F**king laughing sarcasm icon Thanks.)

Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 4th, 2012, 09:52 PM   #368 (permalink)
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Sorry I didn't mean to upset you
I took some time off from work so I'll try to be online tomorrow and Friday from around 6am until noon

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Old July 6th, 2012, 02:32 AM   #369 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Bankers Behaving Badly

From Larry Levin

Bankers Behaving Badly

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We’ve long since patched up our differences with England, but in honor of the July fourth holiday, let’s spark up the US versus UK rivalry.

The dubious honor is the world’s biggest manipulator and so far it seems that the winner is our European friend.

Barclays Chief Executive Bob Diamond resigned Tuesday; the latest head to roll after the London-based bank was fined $453 million last week for attempting to manipulate inter-bank lending rates. The record fine was imposed after Barclays admitted that its traders had attempted to fix Libor, the global rate for bank-to-bank lending that underpins some $350 trillion worth of contracts worldwide. False reports of the interest rate primarily originated with traders working in the investment banking division of the company between 2005 and 2009, headed at that time by Diamond, according to the AP.

Of course, there’s been no mention of Diamond going to jail. Global price fixing and manipulation doesn’t seem to warrant a prison sentence, just a pink slip.

Still, the competition isn’t over. America may out-mainpulate Brittan when the full details emerge about a story released Tuesday by Bloomberg. U.S investment bank Morgan Stanley, which just barely avoided a triple notch downgrade, successfully pushed Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service Inc. to give unwarranted investment-grade ratings in 2006 to $23 billion worth of notes backed by subprime mortgages, investors claimed in a lawsuit citing documents unsealed in federal court.

Executives at the ratings firms failed to warn investors about the risks associated with subprime-backed notes that were issued by a unit of London-based hedge fund Cheyne Capital Management Ltd. because they wanted to reap financial rewards from doing business with guess who, Morgan Stanley.

Let’s see how this story unfolds. Uncle Sam may very well catch up before Labor Day.

Happy 236th Birthday!

Good trading to everyone.
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Old July 6th, 2012, 03:13 PM   #370 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received


Friday
12:10 PM 7/6/2012

I have corrected and updated my first trade formula. The first trade of the day is not always the FE of the day, that it is not necessarily the HOD or LOD. If the estimate is FE=HE i.e. HOD and there is 6pts or more to the FE then the first trade is long to the HE and CAR. Conversely, if the estimate is FE=LE i.e. LOD and there is 6pts or more to the FE then the first trade is long to the HE and CAR.

V days and Caret Days
Within the concept of FE = HOD or LOD days which are Caret or V days are problematic for the spreadsheet at this time. For example, if you have open =1365 and then FE=HE=1373 @ 8:47 , then SE=LE=1357 @11:12, then Third end (TE) =HE=1373 @14:37, then close at 1370, you would have a "V" day. The HE, 1372, happens twice.

Currently, the spreadsheet may mix the times so that shows the time for SE as TE that is 14:37 instead of the correct 11:12.

V days and Caret Days do not happen that often and usually you have mixed signals. For example you could have dir=-1 and estmid=+1. (This translates to the main direction of the day is down and the estimated midpt is expected to the higher than yesterday's midpt.) The correct signal would be dir=0

I need to do some work with my momentum indicators and match them to day types, which perhaps I can do in the main spreadsheet.

In the example below of Thursday 28 June it is not a perfect V in the RTH with 1318.75, but using the H1325 at 6:23 we see almost a perfect V 1325 , 1306.75 and 1324.25.
One this day we had dir=-1 midchg=+1 (that is mixed signals).

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