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Started:January 30th, 2011 (12:29 PM) by aquarian1 Views / Replies:40,248 / 682
Last Reply:November 25th, 2016 (11:28 AM) Attachments:357

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Trading

Old February 23rd, 2011, 02:14 PM   #21 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

In the article I read it mentioned raped and then used the words sexually assaulted as the watered down PC terminology - I don't know what you think the repeated "sexual assault" was perhaps un-nice touching while she was being beaten? - The point is about how it upset my sleep - please argue your "facts' in another thread.

This is a trading journal.

I have rules for myself and when I broke a self-discipline rule - not reading newspapers - I paid the price.
For myself there is a reason for the rules and I am showing how other areas of your life connect to trading. Your emotions, your state of mind, your physical health, your rest, your nutrition, etc.

In one video on keeping the art of keeping an effective journal, the author includes "have a fight with the wife?", "spill your coffee on your lap?" put in in your journal - both little and big things can have an impact on your trading and if your don't enter them in your journal - you won't see the patterns.


Last edited by aquarian1; February 23rd, 2011 at 02:35 PM.
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Old February 23rd, 2011, 02:39 PM   #22 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Trading rules

My trading rules:

  • There must be 6pts profit potential.
  • For entry trades from 8:30 to 10am CT I must sell above the sell above "SA" line or buy below the buy below "BB" line.
  • The preferred area to sell is in the high zone "HZ"
  • The preferred area to buy is the low zone "LZ"
  • Stops are entered at the time of the trade entry and are lessor of 5pts or buystop/sellstop levels.
  • If I do not catch the first end of the day "FE" then I cannot counter trend trade later in the day.
  • The day must have an estimated 12pt range or greater.
12-15pts=medium range day "MR" and greater than 15 pts = wide range day "WR" (Narrow range "NR" is less than 12 pts.)


There are a few more but that is the basics.

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 02:57 PM   #23 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Initial estimates the evening before


The evening before after I complete my wrap-up number entry and calculations, I have a rough estimate for the next day.

In this example, 1319.25 is the estimated high (met at 23:47)
The on high was 1320.50 so the heat on this trade was only 1.25.
The estimated low is 1302.25. This target was met at 11:09 am.

My rules do not force me to exit at the target and if the price action dictates then I can continue to hold.

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 03:21 PM   #24 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Some AM notes and estimates

In the morning I get up at 5:30 (3:30am PT) and start working about 6:30 gathering the numbers from the o/n session updating hand charts and spreadsheet, ect. I try to have the new estimates finalized before opening, 8:30CT, though it is a scramble.

Today I settled on
H/L est 1319.50 1301.00 difference 18.50

From these numbers I have some levels computed:

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 03:32 PM   #25 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Chart pre open showing SA and BB levels

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
I must sell above the SA level of 1314.25 (see light blue dotted line).
The open was 1311.75

I had a
"Sell at/near open"
signal showing this morning. This means that I could sell soon after opening for a 5 pt trade. (I don't take these signals at this time - though they are there for when my account is stronger.)

I am really only looking for one trade, e.g. Sell the high and close at the low.

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 03:57 PM   #26 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

The entry time 8:30 to 10am CT

The chart shows the price action after open.
The open was 1311.75.
Price rose to H1316.50 @ 8:46
It is above the SA line, 1314.25

Today I had various signals:
"Sell at/near open" - this meets that signal,
"FE=HE" - this meets that signal,
"down to 1130" - this is also in line.

The Dir30 is my estimate of the main move's direction after opening zig-zagging. They often move it around and then decide on a direction and go with it. This move (+4.75) is still in keeping with downwards to 1130 and below. (dir30 does not include stop running so it can be taken much lower. dir30 is the initial resistance the minimum level it should (in this example) fall to.

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 04:12 PM   #27 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Later in the day

This chart is later in the day.

It has fallen into the initially estimated low zone and has reached 1301 the est low.

After, the FE is in place, today it was FE=HE=1316.50 @ 8:44 I adjust the estimate for the

low. The estimated range was 19.75. So with this the new estimated low is
1316.5-19.75=1296.75. The new LZ +-1.50 ie 1298.25 to 1295.25.

So IB now says the H=1316.50 and low equals=1297.50.

(also irritatingly the open is now shown as 1313.75 - not the 1311.75 shown above. This means that 1316.50 was only +2.75 to the open!)

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Old February 23rd, 2011, 04:21 PM   #28 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

End result

End result was a low of 1297.50


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Old February 24th, 2011, 01:20 PM   #29 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

This is journal is for me to clarify my thoughts and perhaps be of service to someone else.

I'm not looking for feedback or suggestions. Please don't post in this journal other than a question of clarification of terms I use -that I haven't already clearly described. I'll try to give them as I go along and as time permits give examples. (I guess those would be best in a sticky - but I don't know if I can do that ?).

If you are one of the few souls who is also interested estimation trading, please feel free to contact me via email or PM.

I'm going to try and keep my visits here brief.

Many thanks and best of luck in achieving your goals and dreams!

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Old February 24th, 2011, 03:50 PM   #30 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,198 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 696 given, 970 received

Wed 23 Feb 2011


Observations:

WR "recliner" day Rng=19.00

mech est of dir=-1, act dir=1
dif open to close (today)= -8.00

mech est of mid chg=-1, act mid chg=-1
chg in midpt -15.50

dir30min = dn to 1310 act= up to 1316.50@8:44 then dn to 1297.50
(est was incorrect)

Rng est=19.75, Act= 19.00
Best Est of Rng: Aver = 19.25
Mode = 24.25
Median = 21.63
--------
23-Feb
High 1316.50
Low 1297.50
Open 1313.25
Close 1305.25
Percent 41%
VWap 1307.50
Range 19.00
Vol 2,730,975
WMA7 1329.50
SAR 1343.00
Bol U 1346.00
Bol L 1294.75
EMA5 1320.25


-----------
High Est 1319.50
Actual High 1316.50
Dif= 3.00
Low Est 1301.00
Actual Low 1297.50
Dif= 3.50

I have been too low in my estimates.
My estimates may be influenced by the Benanke bubble and waiting for the bull pushes.
Thursday close should be important.

--notes---------
FE did not rise into HZ but did rise above SA level

Est FEa= 1314.25 08:39
Actual FEa =1316.50 08:44

Signals:
SELL near open
FE=HE
1318.00 09:05
Fork est:FE=?

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