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Trading

  #281 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Thursday 09 Feb, 2012

In the o/n session we had 1340.75 rising to 1349.25 (2-1 sequence), and then in pre the high taken out with 1352.75 @ 7:30 spike. So yest ETH high 1348.25 has been taken out by 4.5 pts. In not sure of the TTT sequence but with yest as a Sell day that gives today as sell short day. If so that gives us finishing the day towards the low end of the day but close to or slightly above yesterday low of 1338.25.

The 3d ma of range is 10 and with H1350.25 at 8:33 L1340.25.

We are down to 1341.25 at 9:43CT (now).
This could be a LE timing.

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  #282 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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3 day Taylor sequence

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  #283 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Friday 10 Feb 2012

Trendlines on the 30 min ES chart

I noticed this this morning. I had drawn parallel lines on the 30 min chart.
This morning, as I was gathering my morning data, I noticed that the price had bounced off the lower line. Had I known this would happen - it would have given a nice target for the ES drop.

ES RTH highs Mon- thurs: 1345.75, 1345.75, 1347.50, 1351.25

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  #284 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Monday was a "V" day

Monday 13 Feb 2012

I wasn't up til 4:32PT (6:32CT) so I was rushed gathering opening numbers and missed selling 8:32 H 1350.
I had Dir 30 as down to 1243. The first direction was down and to 1242.75 @ 9:45. Then we went back up to 1350.50 @ 13:41 the HOD.

FE=LE this was correct.

Today was also an exact reply of last Thursday, 9 Feb. The market made a "V" day in RTH. It opened high, when lower and then returned to its opening levels.

I had estimated 1338 and 1350 for a 11.50 range.
The low was 1342.75 so I was 4.75 too high. The high was 1350.50 so 1350 was fine.
(tomorrow may be a replay of last Friday a downday and Sellshort.)
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Last edited by aquarian1; February 13th, 2012 at 05:38 PM.
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  #285 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Tuesday 14 Feb 2012

I was up at 4am so a bit of an improvement.

I had Dir 30 down to 1340.25. First move was down. - so correct.
I had LE estimated at 1338.75. LE was 1337.75. - so correct.
I had rng est at 11pts. Range ws 10.25 - so correct.
I felt pleased with the estimates for today.


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  #286 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Wednesday 15 Feb 2012

Very tired today. Slept a lot.
Important resistance of 1352 was broken.
FOMC seemed to be the nail in the coffin.
The uprend isn't broken yet. We really need a close < 1329.

Ranges:
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  #287 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Thursday 16 Feb 2012
Notes made before open:
dir30 = "up to 1344"
FE=LE?
Estimated high = 1347.75
Estimated low = 1337.50
est range 10.25

Actual open
Open: 1341.25

Notes at 9:00am:
low=1338.50 (actually 1338.25 but that's NT charting for you! or perhaps IB jury-rigging at EOD)
so low could be in place
1338.50+9.25-1.5=1346.25
1338.5+9.25=1347.75


Summary after the close:
actual:
High: 1357.25
Low: 1338.50

So with dir 30 we have up to at least 1344 and FE=LE means that the LOD will be first.
So it opens at 1341.25 and after a little head fake falls to 1338.25 @ 8:56. I was alert enough to reconize this could be the LOD as the estimate was for the low to be first and for it to be about 1337.50 +1.50 or - 1.50 so LZ=1336 to 1339
and 1338.25 is in the LZ.
At this point I should be buying.

Wednesday's range was 15.75 so no idea where I got such a low range estimate, but if I had of bought then this wouldn't matter. I would have bailed too early at 1347.75 or if I used the indicators hung in there.

Reality was that I just took a nap at 10am til close.

Once again my SMA35 rule for trend would have kept me on the right side of the trade - If I used it.
And as this was a "Buy Day" in the TTT sequence we expected a low first and then rising up.

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  #288 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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This time last year we had a 100 point drop in the ES in 18 days.

Just a heads up to be careful.

Also last years high on 2 May was 1367.25 RTH and 1373.50 ETH. So we are at a potential double top area.

(We have a 1369.50 high so far. )

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  #289 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,135 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,696 received
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Tuesday 21 Feb 2012

So far we have had a high of 1367.50 RTH yesterday. Yesterday was a shortened trading day due to Washington's birthday.

Today, Tuesday, we had a high =1369.50 02/19/2012 05:00:00 PM Sunday.
(The RTH 2 May 2011 of high of 1367.25 and 31.5pts from the ETH high of 1373.50)

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Though today was only slightly down both the RTH high and RTH low were lower than yesterday.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; February 21st, 2012 at 10:55 PM.
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  #290 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,135 since Dec 2010
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Wednesday 22 Feb 2012
Two years ago I was very, very sick due to family stress (and the apt heat being off) and Caught a virus. I had to sleep for more than a month. After that I went back to 12hr days but it didn't allow me to totally recover. This year at New Years I made some resolutions: If I was tired sleep and to go for a daily walk. These resolutions cut into my time available for work. Today I was very tired and couldn't get up with the alarm at 3:30am PT (no wonder having been to bed at ~11:50pm!) and slept most of today.

Accomplishments for today:
1. Started on the restoration of my spreadsheets on my XP computer. Data hole from 21 Nov 2011.
2. Got sunrise/sunset times
3. Tried something new with Andrews Pitchfork and the pre numbers -still experimental.
4. Improved MOVA H/L estimate in dailydata spreadsheet.
To do tomorrow:
Check if ninja7 on XP allows copying of data box

The range estimate for today was 9.50 (going +1 to the 3day MA of 8.50)
The actual range was 7.25 (shouda gone -1 hah, hah)

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