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  #11 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

observations:
NR trendless day.
Nt prices unreliable - switch to Sierra
make sure you do a cntrl shift R until then

HL est 9pts - mechanical est 10pt actual rng=6.75

Look to alert of NR with on rng.

NR=narrow range day
--------
High 1343.00
Low 1336.25
Open 1339.50
Close 1343.00
Percent 100%
VWap 1339.75
Range 6.75
Vol 1,339,690
WMA7 1334.00
SAR 1315.25
Bol U 1345.00
Bol L 1324.50
EMA5 1334.50

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  #12 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

observations:
NR trendless day
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=0 (+0.50)
mech est of mid chg=-1, mid chg=0 (-2.75)
dir30min = upto 1328 [email protected]:01
Mode was close

Range est in pts:
mechanical est= 10
Rng est=9.00
LSS 6.75
Mode 6.75
Median 9.00

actual rng =5.75

-----------
High 1328.00
Low 1322.25
Open 1325.75
Close 1326.25
Percent 70%
VWap 1325.25
Range 5.75
Vol 1,224,993
WMA7 1324.50
SAR 1301.00
Bol U 1330.00
Bol L 1317.00
EMA5 1323.50

--notes---------
  • dir=direction of the day, -1=dn,0=flat,+1up {flat= @abs(O-C) < 4.25pts}
  • mid chg=change in the midpt of the day from yest, -1=dn,0=flat,+1up {flat= @abs(O-C) < 4.25pts}
  • dir30min = this is a preopen visual estimate looking at the 30min chart and not including additional movement for stop-running.
  • Rng est= this is the actual high-low differenceI settled on before opening. underneath "rng est" this is the estimate that was closest that day, the mode average of all range est, then the median average of all range est.

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  #13 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received


  • "Why is the man who invests your money called a broker?"
--
"Why do doctors call what they do "practice"?
---
Local fire dept responding to a call that some geese were stuck frozen in lake, rushes to the scene, pushes out a boat and some ice-breaking tools and when they get to within 3 yards the geese fly off.
"So how did it go?" a coworker ask on their return to the station.
"Wild goose chase" was the reply.
----
I like you. You remind me of when I was young and stupid.
---
observations:

NR trendless day
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=0 (+2.75)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=1 (+6.50)
dir30min = upto 1332.75 [email protected]:38

Range est in pts:
mechanical est= 9.25
Rng est=9.00
Mode 5.75
Median 9.63

Actual rng =8.50

-----------
High 1336.00
Low 1327.50
Open 1330.25
Close 1333.00
Percent 65%
VWap 1332.75
Range 8.50
Vol 1,592,404
WMA7 1327.00
SAR 1305.00
Bol U 1334.25
Bol L 1319.00
EMA5 1326.75


--notes---------
  • the estimate of the range was +0.50 -pretty close
  • high was greater than the Bol U

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  #14 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

observations:

NR upslash day
mech est of dir=1, act dir=1 (+7.50)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=0 (+2.75)
dir30min = upto 1335 [email protected]:26

Rng est=8.00
H/L est 11.00
Mode 8.50
Median 8.63

Actual rng =11.00

-----------
High 1340.00
Low 1329.00
Open 1330.25
Close 1337.75
Percent 80%
VWap 1335.50
Range 11.00
Vol 1,447,862
WMA7 1333.00
SAR 1310.00
Bol U 1337.50
Bol L 1323.50
EMA5 1330.50

--notes---------
H/L estimate right on today- 11.0 vs 11.0!! good stuff!
(H/L is what I go with - in this case it was Est high =1340.25, estimated Low=1329.25 only +0.25 to the actuals!)
(Rng est = the mechanical estimate of the spreadsheet.)

FEa est was excellent as well. FEa [email protected]:24 Actual = [email protected]:39

(FEa est = the estimated First End of the day. The sheet makes two estimates FEa and FEb for days when there is a double first end, that is both before 10am. SE, Second end, today was the HE high end. So actuals: FE=LE of [email protected] and SE=HE [email protected])


high again > Bol U +2.50
SAR increased +6.0 from yesterday and still way down at 1310 - way-to-go Zimbabwe BEN!
this whole market has an incredible feel of unreality and disconnect. How bankerBEN can keep printing and not see its just inflating an equity bubble - or perhaps he does and cares more for his bankerbuddies who knows...

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  #15 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

observations:

NR trendless day
mech est of dir=1, act dir=0 (+3.50)
mech est of mid chg=1, act mid chg=1 (+5.25)
dir30min = up to 1340.00 [email protected] 8:46 (est was wrong)
H/L est 1344.25 1333.75 10.50

Rng est=8.50
Weekly PP 7.25
Mode 11.00
Median 11.00

Actual rng =6.75

-----------
High 1343.00
Low 1336.25
Open 1339.50
Close 1343.00
Percent 100%
VWap 1339.75
Range 6.75
Vol 1,339,690
WMA7 1334.00
SAR 1315.25
Bol U 1345.00
Bol L 1324.50
EMA5 1334.50

--notes---------
High est good, low not so much. +1.25 on the HE and -2.5 on LE
H/L rng=10.50 vs 6.75 -ouch! (once again the narrow on could have been a tip-off. Need to work on that switch.)

FEa so-so +2. FEa [email protected]:20 Actual = [email protected]:46 (time for FEb was 8:52 so much closer to actual)

high today < Bol U -2.0 --- humm...
SAR increased +5.25 from yesterday to 1315.25

-----
Ok gang its a sunny Sunday and I'm wasting away at the keyboard -- time for a walk outside!

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  #16 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

Yesterday the markets were closed -thank-heavens I needed the sleep.
I started reading Robert's Journal and he references Sam Seildon

From an article be Sam Seiden
source:
Trading Articles - Authors - Sam Seiden | Trade2Win

" 4. Only trade opportunities that offer at least a 3:1 profit zone to the first target."
" 5. Pre-plan and pre-set: Entry, Stop, Target/s."
"Here are the only two types of entries you will ever need. The First Pullback entry is the lower risk/higher reward entry though many people are not comfortable with it. "

I really wonder how many people bother to make sure that they know their RR ratio and wait for 3:1 - that is knowing their stops don't enter without the chart showing them a 3:1 for the target - very few I would imagine.
----------
Yesterday I got a hand chart set up for silver and was happy that the graph paper I had pasted to the printed one year chart just happened to work out for scaling of grid lines.

Today - the day after a holiday -is always a bit of a quandry as to what to do with yesterday's partial ES data. I slept in so no trading in any case. Markets are down - not much of a surprise after the action partial session yesterday.

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  #17 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
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A second article seems to clarify Sams approach. He sells the first revisit to a resistance level (pivot level) provide the time spend there was brief. vv lows.

Swing Trading Strategies | Day Trades | FREE Stocks Picks - MrSwing.com
The first time price revisited that level [support] was the time to buy as the risk was low and the reward was high. Notice...the cluster of trading that is followed by a decline in price. When price comes back to that level for the first time ... it goes right through it without turning lower."

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  #18 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

more than 2 yrs ago when I started out on my quest I set some rules for myself:
- no TV
- no newspapers
- no drinking.
(quite a few more but not to bore you.)

Well working 14hrs+ a day on this project I don't have time to waste. By Friday I am exhausted.

This Friday I didn't get my end of day and end of week wrap-up done. I gave myself a little break on Sat evening and did some investment reading at the local coffee shop. Not sure why but I broke a rule and read the newspaper, which contained an article about a female CBS journalist on 11 Feb while covering the anti-government protest rally, being separated from her fellow reporters and beaten and repeatedly raped by group of Egyptians. Finally, 20 Egyptian women and the police finally ended her ordeal. The ugliness of a the "humans" involved really bothered me and I had a hard time getting the awful image out my mind and upset my sleep.

Then this morning I read in Barcharts, I read:
" increased geo-political concerns after Egypt granted Iran permission to send 2 warships through the Suez Canal, which raises the risk of an Iranian confrontation with Israel." (nice)
---------------------
I know some believe God is going to come down to earth and do some "cleansing".
If so, I sure wish he'd get a move on 'cus the scum is floating to the top.
--------------
Anywho, missed today mega day trading.
My own fault - I stayed up too late to get up on time and missed a 24.25pt day after a series of 6-7pt garbage.

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  #19 (permalink)
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,035 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,509 given, 2,592 received

observations:

WR checkdown day Rng=24.25
mech est of dir=-1, act dir=-1 (dif open to close -12.75)
mech est of mid chg=-1, act mid chg=-1 (-13.25)
dir30min = up to 1328 act=up from [email protected]:37 [email protected] 9:17 (est was correct)
H/L est 1335.25 1323.25 dif= 12.00

Rng est=12
Best Est of Rng:
Mech Pivot 27.00
Mode 12.00
Median 13.25
Actual rng =24.25

-----------

High 1334.50
Low 1310.25
Open 1326.75
Close 1314.00
Percent 15%
VWap 1321.50
Range 24.25
Vol 2,589,250
WMA7 1325.50
SAR 1321.00
Bol U 1344.75
Bol L 1310.75
EMA5 1327.00

--notes---------
Got up late and so the estimates reported here are the mechanical and don't really mean
much.
Important
I must make sure that on big down days like today I don't limit the profit.

On prior day Friday 18 Feb I mentioned"high today < Bol U -2.0 --- humm... "
Looks like it had meaning. From Friday's high to today low (1343 1310.25) = drop of 32.75pts.

RTH Sar =1321 +5.75 from Thursday.
Notice that Thurs 17 Feb's SAR was 1310 -very close to today's low.

(On the extend hrs graph SAR has flipped to the high side. WMA70= 1287)


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  #20 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Trading: TF
 
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aquarian1 View Post

.....female CBS journalist on 11 Feb while covering the anti-government protest rally, being separated from her fellow reporters and beaten and repeatedly raped by group of Egyptians. Finally, 20 Egyptian women and the police finally ended her ordeal.....

Minor point perhaps ... she was sexually assaulted not raped ... not belittling what happened ... just trying to be accurate

Regards,
TMFT

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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