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  #101 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Making coleslaw

Result: +2.25


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  #102 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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  #103 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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see attached

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  #104 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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sold at 1332.50

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  #105 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Friday wrap-up

Monday - no trades
Tuesday +2.25
Wednesday +0.25
Thursday +2.25
Friday +6.25

Total for week1: +11

Walk score 4 for 5

-------
Everyone have a nice weekend!

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  #106 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Last night (friday) Woofer Dan had his music going until after midnight. That means when I woke up this morning it was after 10:30am PST and way past my goal of keeping the weekday sleeping schedule. What does this mean sports fans?

According to the "Woofer Dan" indicator Monday will be a range expansion day.

How so? well odds are I won't be able to be back on schedule til Friday so if I sleep in on Monday then the range should expand from Fridays 9pt range to a tradeable range 15pts plus.

Other news: walk score 5 for 7 (missed Thurs and Friday evenings working). Its a beautiful day so time to break away from the beast and go for a walk!!

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  #107 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Hi everyone,

I don't use market profile but I have received an email from a free Larry Levin subscription I have.
I've posted on a blog (respecting futures.io (formerly BMT) cp reg) and as there is the link to subscribe if you want in part 3 I'm sure its Ok.

it's in 3 parts because the blog kept saying too long..

in any case it was way too much work/time to post it so you'll have to subscribe from now on.

I hope it helps.

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  #108 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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sold at 1332.50

This was close for a 5.25 pts profit -

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  #109 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I am long at 1325.75 with a sell stop at -5, i.e. 1321.75.
My target is 1337.75

For Monday RTH I currently have:
est high 1338
est low 1328.25

-------
I am very tired. The neighbours below my started fighting at 7:30 Saturday night. I thought well in 15 minutes she give up screaming at him. After 30 minutes I gave up the I idea of sleeping and went to the local coffee shop. I returned around 9:45 and she had finally stopped yelling at him. I didn't get to sleep right away and woke up at 1am , 2am and 3am. I got up. So I've been up 16 hrs on 4-5hrs of troubled sleep.
---------------
I'm so tired I can't think straight.

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  #110 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Trades
Bot 1 1325.75 @ 20:57
Sld 1 1328.75 @ 15:02

= +3.0


Conditions
Slept 8:30 pm to 6:20 am PST. Woken up by screaming neighbor (1am to 1:45am) =9hrs sleep.


Setup = Previous even estimates of HL. Bot at low.

Trade
I entered the trade will still on the computer. I wasn’t online again til 10:30amCT and the high of 1332.75 was past. Waited til towards the end of day to close the trade and get a little more from it.

Post Op
I need to spend time on a reliable indicator for range expansion. My time schedule is so full that I am just not making progress on these ‘optional’ issues. Perhaps it would be best to leave the computer off for a weekday (except for wrap-up number gathering) and work on these long term ideas.

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  #111 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Avoiding the chop with the ADX (141

The areas below the dotted purple line on the ADX which I've draw highlight boxes on are supposed to be chop areas.


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  #112 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tomorrow is FOMC Tuesday (13:00CT)


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  #113 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Didnít get to sleep until 10:40PST and awake at 5:40 and up at 6:05am. Net = 6.5hrs sleep.

It is now 12:06CT. I have the morning numbers in Ė no hand charts made yet. Range estimates seem way too low at about 8pts. Thinking there will be a slow grind upwards, rising and falling, slowly chipping away at the stops. See chart.




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  #114 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Buying for FOMC high spike
13:17
in for 2 with 1 remaining.
BOT 1 at 1331.75 @ 13:13
BOT 1 at 1331.25 @ 13:18

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  #115 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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BOT 1326.25
SLD 1323.25 -stopped out at -3
Net = -3pts

-3 is my maximum stop for the system. However, the system is for RTH hours and the evening before estimates are adjusted with the o/n and pre-open price action. Originally I had set the default stop for maximum 5 pts. About 1 year ago I adjusted to downward to 3 pts and adjusted the formulae for 3 pts maximum.

This is partly because during the day I can fine tune the H/L estimates especially the SE. So once the FE is in place then I can get a better idea of the SE.

I had forgotten that I had tightening the maximum stop to 3pts and last night's order I put in the stop from a spreadsheet printout. The o/n low was 1323.00 @3:18. This means I was stopped out by one tick!

So for o/n I will go back to 5pts.

Very annoying turn a great trade into a losing trade. We had had the high of 1334.25 @ 12:12. This means that with a 5 pt stop, which would not have been hit, I would have been at +8pts. As the estimated range reduced to 8.50 from 9.75 last night, 8.50 gives 1333.75 (1325.25+8.50), so a good sell target - as I need the one tick to ensure a fill.

All in all though it was a losing trade I don't feel badly about it. I was on the correct side of the trade, the estimate of the low was reasonably close for blind shooting, and I have identified and corrected the problem.

resolution for improvement
I think I will start making a separate estimate for the o/n trades.

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  #116 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50

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  #117 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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aquarian1 View Post
overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50

Actual o/n
1336.50
1326

so bottom off by +0.50 - I've adjusted the formula
late state today - not enough sleep
gotta rush back to work
here's a map for today.


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  #118 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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There were not fills on the overnight orders and I canceled them once on-line.

Asleep at 10:50 broken sleep and struggled to get up after 3:30 alarm finally up at 5:30PST
6.5 hrs. Deficit this week 7hrs. Went for a walk yesterday => score 1 of 3.

Trades:
Monday +3.0
Tuesday -3.0



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  #119 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Practice trading

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  #120 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I didn't get filled on the sell 1332.75.
I'm not sure why as it went to 1333.
(Perhaps "It is the mystery of the dance." - Lisa puts her tap shoes on episode.)

So we have a +0.25 for today.

In other news the range estimate was way to wide.

I think I've figured out why and will adjust things after the closing data wrap-up.


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  #121 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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no fill on my o/n buy order of 1325.75
o/n low 1326.25 - missed by 0.50
adjusted formulae

a little post on stop-running
Running the stops

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  #122 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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OH THE JOY OF NT!

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  #123 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Asleep at 8:40 awake at 2am got up at 3:30am. Sleep = 6.75 Add to deficit 2.75

previous -8.5-2.75= -11.25

Had to totally shut down everything and do a reboot, due to .... .
At a crucial time, NT f--ks me.

Have to relog onto IB
Reload 123
and then
reload ... fingers crossed .. the flakey ...

Here's a clue - any prg that forces (an "unmininizeable" -yes just for you FT) splash screen on you splaying itself over your other prgs is G a r b a g..

oh Degas.. taunt them with your donkey braying but at least their prg (SC) works.

anywho... onwards and upwards.

I wondering what the people in Fiji are doing...

"and you might strike it rich and get away to a tropical paradise" - Homer becomes a missionary episode

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Market Wizard
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trade one

setup: _issed-off
+.075

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Market Wizard
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setup 2

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+0.75

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Market Wizard
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+4.0

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Market Wizard
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+2.0

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Market Wizard
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+0.50

Should not have exited trade 4.
Plugged the plug early on this - crooks lunch hour.

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Market Wizard
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I didn't get filled on the sell 1332.75.
I'm not sure why as it went to 1333.

Learning Lesson:
  • Once you've sell you limit target don't mess around with it. Leave it alone unless you want to cancel the trade. This means that you will check all the time frames first before entering the order.

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  #131 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sell 1 1331 4/7/2011 11:53 Entry
Buy 1 1329.25 4/7/2011 12:12 Exit =+1.75

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Market Wizard
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Buy 1 1327.25 12:34 Entry
Sell 1 1327.75 14:05 Exit =+0.50

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  #133 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Trades 7 Apr
Buy 1 1327 9:48 Entry
Sell 1 1327.75 9:52 Exit =+0.75

Buy 1 1326.75 10:21 Entry
Sell 1 1327.5 10:29 Exit =+0.75

Sell 1 1327.5 10:29 Entry
Buy 1 1323.5 10:38 Exit =+4.00

Buy 1 1324 10:43 Entry
Sell 1 1326 10:57 Exit =+2.00

Buy 1 1328.25 11:01 Entry
Sell 1 1328.75 11:13 Exit =+0.50

Sell 1 1331 11:53 Entry
Buy 1 1329.25 12:12 Exit =+1.75

Buy 1 1327.25 12:34 Entry
Sell 1 1327.75 14:05 Exit =+0.50

Sell 1 1327 14:06 Entry
Buy 1 1329 14:19 Exit
Buy 1 1329 14:19 Entry
Sell 1 1328.25 14:25 Exit =-2.75

Total for the day +7.5

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  #134 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Had to totally shut down everything and do a reboot,
due to .... .At a crucial time, NT f--ks me.

Have to relog onto IB
Reload 123
and then
reload ... fingers crossed .. the flakey ...

I've had a nap been for a walk and I'm doing my close-up.
Looking at the graph the best trade was Sell 9:05 Buy 9:46 for 13 pts, so then i got to thinking how did I miss that?
Oh yes the NT crash and forcing a total system reboot


I wondering what the people in Fiji are doing...

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Market Wizard
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resolutions for change

do posting after market action is done and trade is completed
show before and after screensnaps so I can learn for trade
if no entry before 10amCT turn off computer until wrap-up time.
focus on one great day a day.
the key is the entry.
look for one learning lesson each day -find it type it out and review your lessons.

On est
1334.50 vs 1335.75
1322.50 vs 1327.75

o/n h=1335.75@6:49
l=1328.75 @ 15:35
so buy right after close was a good trade +7pts
---------
actual o/n trade
06:03:29 SLD 1 ES 1334.50
09:23:23 BOT 1 ES 1329.00
=+5.50 pts
----ok that was encouraging

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Market Wizard
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Summary Week2 8.0 pts
(Apr4 to Apr 8)

Monday +3.0
Tuesday -3.0
Wednesday +0.25
Thursday +7.50
Friday +5.50

Total for week2: +13.25 pts
Walk score week2: 4 for 6
Sleep score week2: -4.5

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Market Wizard
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On Friday, I wasn't able to wake-up until 5:50PT and on the computer and going around 6:30=8:30CT. When I saw the positive $250 from the o/n trade I just snatched it.

If I was really awake ready and able by opening - charts done ready for battle - I may not have killed the trade at all. I was in the money the FE=HE was in place, the market was trending down, I had a stop in place with it adjusting to trail 6 -once it was 6 pts in my favor.

The reason I killed it was I wasn't ready. I had no clue where the market was going to go - my o/n and pre numbers weren't in and I just didn't want to see a profit go to a loss.

So I have concluded every boils down to getting my sleep and waking up on time refreshed and ready to do business. However, with woofer Dan and screaming Mimie (aka Lillian) that was beyond my control.

I need to make some money and get otta here. I'm caught in a catch 22. Until my neighbors behave quietly on the weekend I won't be on my sleep schedule and until I am on my sleep schedule I won't be ready at opening bell, and until I ready at the opening bell I won't make any money, and until I make some money I can't move, until I move I can't control my sleep...

Back to Friday's trade. Awake and ready i would have let it run, getting more and more relaxed as the time wore on and the points stacked up.

Friday RTH high was 1335.75 at 8:33 and the low was 1318.75 at 14:03 for 17PPP. 17pts is more than i made all week. One trade more than all week.

My entry was:
06:03:29 SLD 1 ES 1334.50
that isn't the top of 35.75 (1.25) but pretty good for shooting all the way from the day before.

All this week I have made some noise when I got up. Hopefully the clowns downstairs had caught on. You don't f_- me on the weekend and you get to sleep in on the weekdays. Even a dog could figure that out. Can they? I doubt it.

Woofer Dan didn't keep me up on Friday night (last night). So if screaming mimmie will be quiet tonight I have a good chance of getting up on Sunday with the alarm 3:30 as resetting my sleep clock for Monday..
--
Friday's chart attached

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  #138 (permalink)
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Hi Aquarian, your neighbours sound like a nightmare (pun intended). Have you reported it to the police? In the UK we have quite strict laws where neighbours can be fined and their stereo confiscated etc if they are causing too much noise. I would have thought you would have similar type laws in the US...?

Also, I guess you would have already tried this, but how about earplugs? I find they work really well. I also limit myself to one coffee per day otherwise I don't sleep properly.

"The primary thing required to obtain what you want from life, is simply the will to pursue it, and the faith to believe it is possible." - Author Unknown

"The ability to maintain discipline and stick to the rules is the hallmark of the experienced successful trader" - Curtis Faith
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Market Wizard
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PositiveDeviant View Post
Hi Aquarian, your neighbours sound like a nightmare (pun intended). Have you reported it to the police? In the UK we have quite strict laws where neighbours can be fined and their stereo confiscated etc if they are causing too much noise. I would have thought you would have similar type laws in the US...?

Also, I guess you would have already tried this, but how about earplugs? I find they work really well. I also limit myself to one coffee per day otherwise I don't sleep properly.

I'm hoping to avoid escalating to the level of the police.

I saw Matt - the boyfriend of screaming mimmie - on my way out for a walk today (Sunday). He was quite embarrassed about the incidents and apologized. he's a nice fellow and I'm she is too -when not giving into her rages.

I asked Matt if his girlfriend is 100% clear on the correlation between her hysterical temper tantrums and my being noisey in the mornings.
"She is now"

I'm hoping this is the end of the episodes.

Woofer Dan was quiet this weekend as well.

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o/n orders are in
h=1332.25
l=1319

Stops are 5pts and they adjust to trail 6pts once the trade is 6pts profitable.

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Market Wizard
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Monday 17 Apr 2011


Resolution number 3: If no entry before 10amCT turn off computer until wrap-up time.

Today I was up at 4:30PT and ready before opening bell but no hand charts. I had a lot of problems with ninja and could not get it running and showing the charts.

I posted 2 examples of CL and murray math in a new thread. It is just for fun and to encourage an experiment in group co-operative trading. The idea is that anyone who wants to can post their setup rules and then track their trades one a day with before and after screensnaps, target and stop.

After that I took a nap woke up about 1300PT and have been working on my closing numbers.

There was no fill in the o/n orders last night
Est high 1332 vs 1329.75
Est low 1319 vs 1323.75

I am now filled on the 1319 long with a 5 pt stop.

Est for o/n H/l for Tuesday session
1330
1317.75

As i am long the low end already I have only put in the o/n high order (1330).

No closed trades today (currently long at 1319)

Here is a picture of last night's (sunday for monday) trades - jour1a.jpg


Here is a picture of the fill on last nights low at 1319- jour1b.jpg


Here is a picture of today's H/l estimate - perfect job on HE! - jour1c.jpg



The rules of my system, abbreviations and examples are on the sticky of page 1

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Tuesday 12 Apr 2011

Sleep: 9:20PM to 3:20am PT =6hrs -2.5 deficit

Today I was up at 3:20PT and on-line at 5:13=7:13. Lotus

crashed - what is going on?

o/n 1320.50-1310 - so stopped out on yesterday's long

trade.

7:36 "ninja needs to shut down" - what a piece of cr-p!

---
Trades
SLD 1 at 1311.75 8:34
SLD 1 at 1314.00 8:40
BOT 1 at 1307.50
BOT 1 at 1306.00
result = +12.75

+12.75 /2 = 6.375 ==> 6.25 for record keeping.

Monday = -5 (stopped out 1319 to 1314)
Tuesday = +6.25

(So this week is +1.25 cumulative so far.)

Jour2e.jpg

Notes:
Error in entering o/n low time 8:38am instead of 8:38pm

caused "Sell at near/open" signal not to display.

HE estimate was too high.
LE estimate was good. (only off by 0.50)

jour2h.jpg

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Hi, well done. What do you use to determine your initial stop size?

"The primary thing required to obtain what you want from life, is simply the will to pursue it, and the faith to believe it is possible." - Author Unknown

"The ability to maintain discipline and stick to the rules is the hallmark of the experienced successful trader" - Curtis Faith
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Market Wizard
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Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Sleep: 10:20PM to 4:30amPT =5hrs

I have been taking naps after morning work to catch up on my sleep. However, I have been sleeping too long which means the evening wrap-up is too late. I was falling asleep trying to get my numbers done. When I went to put in o/n orders IB was "on strike" 23:45ET to 00:05am, so I couldn't enter my orders and went to bed.

Today I set an alarm which went off at 12:30CT - and got up about 13:00. Everything is still a struggle with the clock.
Though I pushed myself and got up this morning I certainly wasn't clear-headed.

I was looking for a high and it was already in (in the premarket). I need to develop a system for noticing this. When the alarm went off I was thinking of just cancelling Wednesday. Prehaps that would have been best but I am pushing hard to get my body/mind to wake up at 3:30amPT.

Though through shear discipline I was up and gathered the numbers - a mental fog of tiredness overlay everthing.

My estimates of HZ and LZ were way off - offset my 5pts too high. The distance between zones was accurate, though. I have noticed in my wrap-up that the SA line is in the HZ - where it normally is below it. Perhaps a clue?

I need some well-rested clear-thinking time.

Trades
Bot 1314.25
Sld 1308.75
Loss 5.50

jour3a.jpg

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Thursday, April 14, 2011

Time for a break!


("Time for a break,Time for a kit-kat" well not that ! )

Perhaps a walk in the woods and talk with the Divine mind.

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Some kind and generous person has sponsored the promotion of my membership. I would like to thank you for the kindness you have shown.

I will endeavor to make my contributions to the board worthy of your generosity.

May God blessings find there way unto your life and the life of your loved ones.

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I hope this is of help

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Market Wizard
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PositiveDeviant View Post
Hi, well done. What do you use to determine your initial stop size?

Thank-you for your question.
In essence the spreadsheet tells me. It has evolved over 3 yrs now and I'm not really sure what it is doing! (hah, hah)
What I mean by that is there is a complex web of formulae and calculations that have evolved themselves over time.

However, to better answer the question the BIG size maximum stop for ES - assuming normal range which has not happened for 2 yrs since Benbawae Ben - is 7pts. However, I used 5 pts as a maximum. Then I will take the lessor of the breakdown or stop-run price.

The LZ (or HZ for that matter) is 3 points wide +- 1.5pts to the estimate low. So for example if the estimated low is 1298.25 then +-1.5 to that is 1299.75 to 1296.75. Why +-1.5 pts?
(I used to use a wider range and as time progressed and my estimates got better I tightened the band.)

So the low stop is the lessor of the:
  • breakdown price
  • the low stop-run price
  • and 5 pts default.
The breakdown price is determined by looking at the lows over the prior 3 days and taking into account stop-running.
The low stop run price is the lower of yesterdays' low or the o/n low plus an amount for stop-running. (5 pts is well, 5 pts and this is only my personal limit and as mentioned as wide as 7 pts could be used.)

Bottom-line is that no trade is entered into without a points profit potential (PPP) of 6 and the maximum stop is 5.
As I am only trading days of 12pts or more - then I am really looking at 12 PPP versus maximum of 5 on the stop.

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Market Wizard
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I would like to clarify on my phrase "the lessor of"
What I meant by that is the "lessor distance of'
so if one stop is 5
and another is 3.5
and another is 1.5

then it is the 1.5 I am taking.

In general, the closer you can get your entry to the maximum stop the better, in that 1.5 is better than 3.5 is better than 5.

As what I am doing is trying to pick the turns, (so countertrend) the entire procedure is risky. So if the turn is close to the the maximum stop then that is great because your potential loss is reduced.


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Market Wizard
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Find attached a page from an excellent health book called
"cure for all diseases"

and info from a webpage

I hope these prevent someone from catching this virsus.

wiki link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasma_gondii

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Market Wizard
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WoW!
sunshine! (ok scattered and broken - but it's trying!)

My thoughts about this past week are that:
  • getting to bed,
  • having a sound sleep and
  • getting up on time rested and ready to go are the keys to my success.

For example, on Thursday I wrote:

"9:27 an now I'm ready! .. great! FE=LE at 8:51 and at L1298.25 -now 1306.50 =8.25 of 13.75.
Lovely! Just F..king lovely."


What this means is that by the time I was ready the key trade had already happened - the low of the day at 1298.25 and that it was already +8.25 pts higher i.e. too late and and move of the move has happened.

When I don't get up on time at 3:30am PT, I'm not ready and the above is what unfolds.

The key is sleep and schedule.
Today, Saturday I slept in til about 10:30am (PT=local time). So this means that the challenge will be to set the alarm for 3:30am and get up then - as practice for Monday morning.

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Market Wizard
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On the question board, there was a question as to whether time is a factor, an important piece of information in the prediction of price turns. I would say it is.

Below is an example from this mornings spreadsheet showing 2 time estimates. (section.jpg)


It shows that the time of the Buy/sell at near open was 8:38 - it was 8:39am. (time1.jpg)


The second part is the time estimate of the FE. It shows the estimate of the time of the FE at 9:11. The actual FE was at 9:03 an error of estimate of 6 mins for the turn in price. (time2.jpg).

The estimates are made before the opening bell.

Using the approximate price and time initial estimate of L1329.25 @ 9:11, the time estimate is further refined to 9:06 that is using the incorrect price estimate of 1329.25.

It should be remembered that today is a choppy little per holiday trading day and not the best for demonstrating time&price. On some days the estimates are further refined once the FE is place to give a precise time estimate, sometimes to the minute of the SE. (My research is still preliminary yet I feel that this example should indicate the potential of accurate time estimation to the open mind.)


The rules of my system, abbreviations and examples are on the sticky of page 1

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Rules and abbreviations on page1 of this journal

Sorry for the broken link - perhaps this will work!

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Market Wizard
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Summary Week4 +27.5 pts
(Apr18 to Apr 22)

Monday +17.25
Tuesday +9.0
Wednesday +6.25
Thursday -5.0
Friday +0

Total for week4: +27.5 pts

Trades 15-18 Apr
Sld 1 1314.25 @ 09:00 (opened on the 15th)
Bot 1 1297.00 (the close was on the 18th)
= +17.25

Trades 17-18 Apr
Bot 1 1294.25 @ 22:05
Sld 1 1303.25 @11:14
= +9.00

Trades 18-19 Apr
Bot 1 1301.25 @ 4:51
Sld 1 1307.50 @12:43
= +6.25

Trades 19-20 Apr
Sld 1 1316 @22:08
Bot 1 1321 @ 3:55 (stopped out)
= -5

Trades 20-25 Apr
Sld 1 1334.75 @18:07
Bot 1 1334.75 @ 3:09 (stopped out)
= +0

Notes: Not very happy with trade5 of 20-25April. I had used an adjustable stop, which adjusted to trail 6 at 6pts profit. This resulted in the stop reducing from 1338 to 1334.75. The high was 1335.25 and it has been as low as 1327.75 this morning Monday the 25th of April. Rather than an automatic adjustment I think I'll leave the stop fixed.

---------
Summary Week1 +11pts
Summary Week2 +13.25 pts
Summary Week4 +27.5 pts

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Market Wizard
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Monday - no trades narrow range day - 6.75 pts.

510 rule had FE at 8:52 vs actual at 8:51am.

signals for the direction of the first leg were mixed.

Spent most of the day posting.

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Market Wizard
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Today I woke-up late. Too much time spent on-line on non-core activities yesterday.

The overnight trade had a low of 1326.5 and a high of 1335. Also there was a "Breakout?" signal last night. This means there is a possibility of a breakout but it is not for sure.
("Breakout!" means for sure.) The breakout level last night, as computed by the program was 1341.50.

As the default stop is 5pts and 1335 was the estimated high, then 1340 is the buystop price, and with 1341.50 indicated then being taken out on the stop is indicated.

With this, I have decided to amend the overnight orders so that if "breakout?" or "breakout" shows I will amend the low order upwards to reflect the upwards bias and not enter a sell order for the overnight high.

The overnight low default estimate is prices-low (this in my version of VAL) less x points. So this will amend to price-low without any subtraction.

Last night I missed getting filled on the o/n low by 1.75pts (low 1328-0.25 for the edge =1327.75).


Today's trades:
ES SLD 1335.50 @3:49 BOT 1342.25 at 10:01 = -6.75pts
CL SLD 112.31 @9:29 BOT 112.11 at 10:08 = +0.20 *1000 /50= +4pts (es equivalent)
NET = -2.75pts


Clippings:

"A member of German Chancellor Merkel's council of economic advisers said Greece will have to restructure its debt and should avoid waiting too long to do it, while ECB Council member and ECB Chief Economist Stark said a debt restructuring by a euro country risks triggering a banking crisis that in a "worst case" could exceed the effects of the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings."

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  #157 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Oh how I H--- ninja!
Let me count the ways,
Garbage in front on me,
Garbage behind me.
Garbage on all sides.

Today:
First time I opened Ninja it crashed my entire system. I come back from getting a coffee having already loaded two prg to find m system rebooting itself. Second time, I load Ninja first - maybe it likes everything to itself. Then my spreadsheet prg and IB. Link Ninja to the datafeed. Ninja (the newer forced update from 6.5.1xxx to 6.5.1000.19 -where do these creatons get there numbering systems? (How about a, b, c, )
then ...tadah! blank charts. Cntrl + shift + R nothing. shut down Ninja (again). restart Ninja.
Third time - now fouth time. 7:48 I started an hour ago!!!! A - R - G - H !!!!!

------------
Clipping:
Nokia Corp. said Wednesday it will slash 7,000 jobs worldwide, through both layoffs and outsourcing, as it strives to cut costs and catch up with its top rivals in the smartphone market. ... The announcements came as the world's top cellphone maker seeks to cut operating expenses by euro1 billion ($1.5 billion) by 2013 amid fierce competition that has seen its market share plunge and its profits plummet.

Feels like 2007
------
downloaded Cory's VolumeStopV3
----
CL trade +9.2 ES pts

Taking too long and exited

..........
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  #158 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Thursday:

7:22 online in good time
high 1356.25 - this was the high when I was doing the end-of-day wrap-up.
I had set the alert sell of o/n high at 1356.75.
It's now 1349.25 so for 0.50 I'm not in the o/n trade

-------
more prbs with ninja.
Figured out I had to close all my old ES charts and make new ones.
This seems to have fixed the blank chart prb.
----
Quiet day for ES churning about in a narrow range.
I went to the board to see what was happening and made the mistake of going to a journal.

There the bully boys were beating up on someone.
Ticks me off that these trolls cruise around looking for newer traders to lord it over.
Same people who used to beat up on weaker kids in schoolyard no doubt.

"Let me tell you how the world is oh little one." -as if!
"When you are a seasoned pro like me you'll come to see that..." -sure, sure man.

I know, you're a multimillionaire seasoned pro who has descended from heaven to help out we lessor mortals with your droppings of wisdom.

I notice they never have a journal.

Let them start one.
-post their trades with stops and targets real time or in advance
and let's see them make even 2pts a day average over 20 trading days,
that +40ES pts or the equivalent at the end of 20 days -as if!!!

Yes that is 2pts differential - so 1346 to 1348 counts the same on 3 contracts as on 1, average entry price less average exit price.
(I can hear the excuses now: "Oh I'm too busy to do that. That is for beginners. I don't need to prove myself to anyone. I long since stopped doing that...")

..........
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  #159 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Thursday = 6.2pts
CL SLD 112.81 @13:34 BOT 112.50 at 20:04 = +0.31 *1000 /50= +6.2pts (es equivalent)

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  #160 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

------ week 5: 25 April to 29 April --------

Monday = no trades

Tuesday = -2.75
ES SLD 1335.50 @3:49 BOT 1342.25 at 10:01 = -6.75pts
CL SLD 112.31 @9:29 BOT 112.11 at 10:08 = +0.20 *1000 /50= +4pts (es equivalent)
NET = -2.75pts

Wednesday = 9,2pts
Sld 112.79 @ 11:56 Bot 112.33 @ 12:32 = +0.46 *1000 /50= +9.2pts (es equivalent pts)

Thursday = 6.2pts
CL SLD 112.81 @13:34 BOT 112.50 at 20:04 = +0.31 *1000 /50= +6.2pts (es equivalent)

Friday = 6.6pts
CL SLD 113.02 @ 8:00 BOT 112.69 at 8:38 = +0.33 *1000 /50= +6.6
pts (es equivalent)

Total for the week: 11.95

Chart of Friday's trade

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  #161 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
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Total for Week1 +11 pts
Total for Week2 +13.25 pts
Total for Week4 +27.5 pts
Total for Week5 +11.95 pts

Weekly average 15.925 pts

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  #162 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 6: 02 May to 06 May -------
Monday
CL SLD 114.04@9:54 BOT 113.70@10:58 = +0.34 *1000 /50= +6.8pts (es equivalent)


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  #163 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Slept in.
This entry was a bit sloppy.
The exit would have been more profitable to have set an alert and watched the action at the target.

CL SLD 112.18@9:35 BOT 111.82@12:48 = +0.36 *1000 /50= +7.2pts (es equivalent).


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  #164 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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cl short


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  #165 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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breakdown in ES 1337.25
current low 1338.25

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  #166 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Wednesday
CL SLD 108.18 @ 10:18
CL SLD 109.25 @ 10:32

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  #167 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Target for second sale = 108.54


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  #168 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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11:27 Ct part way through the trade snap


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  #169 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Runner left to ride,
Six gun at my side.
Getting out alive,
Now it must take a dive!


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  #170 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Sell at 109.18


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  #171 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Filled on 109.18 sell
target on it 108.44


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  #172 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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moved up targets.

taking a nap


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  #173 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Wednesday
CL SLD 108.18 @ 10:18 @ BOT 108.84 @ 14:44 +0.66
CL SLD 109.25 @ 10:32 @ BOT 108.53 @ 11:28 +0.72
CL SLD 109.18 @ 11:48 @ BOT 108.84 @ 14:43 +0.74
2.12/3=0.70666 = 0.70*1000 /50= +14.1pts (es equivalent)



best time to trade was earlier

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  #174 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
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Thursday 5 May
ES SLD 1348.50 @ 23:47 BOT 1337 @ 5:44 11.50pts

Comments: This was an o/n. I could have gotten more profit from this but had computer prbs.
The daytime low est today was 1330.25
Actual was 1325.25.

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  #175 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Wasted time this evening.

Broke with my schedule to buy Mother day card and mail a birthday card and went to a coffee shop to read an investment book. I got into a mistake of getting into a conversation with a young lady who asked "What are the reasons for being good?"

When I replied with a more spiritual answer to her question she wanted me to answer it without using any metaphysics. The conversation floated into many directions but in the end she expressed that all answers were in science - and if they weren't science just had to do more digging.

Her justification to the Halloran particle accelerator ($6.8B?) when compared to a growing Sahara desert, 90% of the fish stocks gone in the world's oceans, 200,000 people dying of starvation and starvation related diseases each 3 days, species eradication and habitat loss, burning the amazon rainforest - size of Belgium each year, 6.8 billion people on a planet that can only sustain half that and growing every day, etc. was "misallocation of resources".

Yet another praying to the god of science.
So depressing.

So now I'm wrapping up numbers I should have done long ago. It's 11:33pm local time and I need to wake up by 3:30am. I am angry at myself for the time-waste.

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  #176 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Friday 6 May
CL SLD 100.63 @ 10:37 - BOT 100.07 @ 11:09 +0.56 *1000 /50= +11.2pts (es equivalent)


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  #177 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 6: 02 May to 06 May -------
Monday
CL SLD 114.04@9:54 BOT 113.70@10:58 = +0.34 *1000 /50= +6.8pts (es equivalent)

Tuesday
CL SLD 112.18@9:35 BOT 111.82@12:48 = +0.36 *1000 /50= +7.2pts (es equivalent)

Wednesday
CL SLD 108.18 @ 10:18 @ BOT 108.84 @ 14:44 +0.66
CL SLD 109.25 @ 10:32 @ BOT 108.53 @ 11:28 +0.72
CL SLD 109.18 @ 11:48 @ BOT 108.84 @ 14:43 +0.74
2.12/3=0.70666 = 0.70*1000 /50= +14.1pts (es equivalent)

Thursday 5 May
ES SLD 1348.50 @ 23:47 BOT 1337 @ 5:44 11.50pts

Friday 6 May
CL SLD 100.63 @ 10:37 - BOT 100.07 @ 11:09 +0.56 *1000 /50= +11.2pts (es equivalent)

Monday +6.8
Tuesay +7.2
Wednesday +14.1
Thursday 11.50
Friday 11.20

Week 6= 50.8!!

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  #178 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Total for Week1 +11 pts
Total for Week2 +13.25 pts
Total for Week4 +27.5 pts
Total for Week5 +11.95 pts
Total for Week6 +50.6pts

Sum 114.3 5 weeks

Weekly average 22.86 pts

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  #179 (permalink)
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Nice job aquarian! You should change your sig and make it your own,

eg "I will strike it rich and buy a tropical island"

"The primary thing required to obtain what you want from life, is simply the will to pursue it, and the faith to believe it is possible." - Author Unknown

"The ability to maintain discipline and stick to the rules is the hallmark of the experienced successful trader" - Curtis Faith
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  #180 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 7: 09 May to 13 May -------

Monday - no trades

ES SLD 1 @ 1341.25 @ 2:35am 5/9 in o/n session
Stop is 1347.50
Order is still open

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  #181 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Tuesday
5/10 BOT 1347.25 @ 4:01 =-6pts (stopped out of 1341.25 short from Monday)

Summary
Monday no trades
Tuesday -6pts

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  #182 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Tuesday
5/10 BOT 1347.25 @ 4:01 =-6pts (stopped out of 1341.25 short from Monday)
CL SLD 103.36 @ 10:45:24 - BOT 103.66 @ 10:45:40 -0.30 *1000 /50= -6pts (es equivalent)
(stopped out in 16 secs ouch! )
C'mon you can do better than this!

Total for Tuesday = -12pts

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  #183 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Isn't that a kicker!

Dragging myself out of bed at 3:30am PDT to be ready for opening, day after day, waiting for the big break. Last night I broke training and stayed up til 10:30am. After having PM someone about taking a break, I decided I needed one and slept in.

I've awoken -showered etc and had my morning coffees and I'm now online.

The price fell from 1358.25 to a low of 1334.75 so down 23.50 or $1,175 in a few hours on one contract.

My o/n order missed getting filled by 2 ticks.

Ah well, there's a reason for everything...
Now to figured out the reason! hah, hah.

The big irony is that I had today marked as a change in direction.
I guess I was so tired and worn out I missed it.

Live and learn.


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  #184 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 7: 09 May to 13 May -------

Monday - no trades

ES SLD 1 @ 1341.25 @ 2:35am 5/9 in o/n session
Stop is 1347.50
Order is still open

Tuesday
5/10 BOT 1347.25 @ 4:01 =-6pts (stopped out of 1341.25 short from Monday)
CL SLD 103.36 @ 10:45:24 - BOT 103.66 @ 10:45:40 -0.30 *1000 /50= -6pts (es equivalent)
Total for Tuesday = -12

wednesday - no trades
Thursday - no trades

Friday 5/13
ES SLD 1346@8:23 BOT 1343.75@8:44 +2.25pts
(Friday's o/n sell was 1352.75 the o/n high was 1352.50! Missed by one tick!)

Week's total = -9.75pts

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  #185 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Total for Week1 +11 pts
Total for Week2 +13.25 pts
Total for Week4 +27.5 pts
Total for Week5 +11.95 pts
Total for Week6 +50.6pts
Total for Week7 -9.75pts

Sum 104.55 6 weeks

Weekly average 17.425 pts

Learning Lessons this week:
Missed o/n trades by 2 ticks and by 1 tick. Put order a little lower. e.g. 0.50 from estimate.
For CL wait for it to turn down from resistance

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  #186 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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From and internet search this morning on forex:
"
John B, New York City

Rating:
Date of Post:2010-05-18
Review:IB trades against retail customers, delays quotes by 7-10 seconds so that they may fill orders for the firm at better market prices than those shown to customer, routinely "scalp" retail customer like it is their right just for being in the business. Customer service NEVER gives an adjustment you are entitled to - tell you submit a "ticket" for review by their "committee"

I am sure it does trade against its customers. They will only fill you on the opposite side of the spread when they have a matching IB customer order to net it against. Their adjust their prices by the spread later to cover their "appropriation" I have even been filled above the high of the day (or course on a protective posted stop) so this means the trade was never passed to the exchange. Now what is a bucket shop again?
gotta laugh - people talk of low commissions - IMHO the commissions are just a cover so you don't look at the trades where they take the other side against u.
(Disclaimer: IB abbreviation is for a fictional firm "Interesting Bob(IB)" Any relationship to any entity real or imagined is only coincidence.)

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  #187 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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-----Week 8: 16 May to 20 May -------
Monday - no trades.

Overnight sell was not filled.

The spreadsheet estimated FE=LE at 1329@8:33 versus actual at 1328@8:32.
(I did not take this order as my account is not strong enough for a countertrend and I believe we may have a roll-over tomorrow. I am really looking of FE=HE and in my HZ. The second reason is that I am still struggling to be ready at open. Though I was up on time today there was lost time in attending to my infected finger - which isn't healping my sleep much either and adding to my worry and stress.)

The HE estimate was 1341.25 and the actual was 1341.25 wow! exact!!
I almost took this sale but it was at 10:06 and the full range of the day was already in place, making the odds of a sharp fall reduced. A second factor was I did not get the topping action of the 1 minute CCI that I like to see. With the potential for a sloppy balance of the day being a long T-top and I am looking for nice sweet 15 point move the setup did not score 100% green lights across the board. Net result is that I am fine with not taking the trade.


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  #188 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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8:27


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  #189 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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8:44 with open and updated Pre numbers


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  #190 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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the waiting game


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  #191 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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just for fun ..
nap time approaching..


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  #192 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Thinking positive

So we had:
Estimate FEa = 1321.50 @8:37
Actual FEa = 1320 @8:33

Dif only 1.5pts and 4 minutes!

So we had:
Estimate "Upto 1333.25"
Actual upto 1328.50 @ 9:30


So we had:
Estimate Low=1314.75
Actual low = 1316.25 @ 10:40

- day not done yet could see 1314.75 or 1313.50..

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #193 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Sld CL at 96.61


..........
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.........
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  #194 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

stopped out for a loss of -8pts.

..........
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.........
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  #195 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Tuesday 5/17

ES BOT 1 @ 1322.75 @ 18:04 5/16 ES SLD 1 @ 1326.00 @ 7:13 = 3.25pts
CL SLD 96.61 @ 11:51 @ BOT 97.01 @ 12:51 -.40
CL BOT 97.35 @ 13.04 @ SLD 97.74 @ 14:01 +.39 NET -.01 OR -.2 es pts

Total for Tuesday 3.05pts

..........
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.........
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  #196 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 8: 16 May to 20 May -------

Monday 5/16 - no trades

Tuesday 5/17
ES BOT 1 @ 1322.75 @ 18:04 5/16 ES SLD 1 @ 1326.00 @ 7:13 = 3.25pts
CL SLD 96.61 @ 11:51 @ BOT 97.01 @ 12:51 -.40
CL BOT 97.35 @ 13.04 @ SLD 97.74 @ 14:01 +.39 NET -.01 OR -.2 es pts
Total for Tuesday 3.05pts

Wednesday 5/18
ES SLD 1 @ 1337 @ 12:05, BOT 1 @ 1337.75 @ 7:09 5/20 = -0.75pts

Thursday 5/19
ES SLD 1 @ 1343.25 @ 4:53, BOT 1 @ 1337.75 @ 7:09 5/20 = +5.5pts

3.05
-.75
5.5
=7.8

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #197 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Total for Week1 +11 pts
Total for Week2 +13.25 pts
Week 3 - no data
Total for Week4 +27.5 pts
Total for Week5 +11.95 pts
Total for Week6 +50.6pts
Total for Week7 -9.75pts
Total for Week8 7.8pts

Sum 112.35 weeks=7

Weekly average 16.05 pts

------
Notes:
This week has been a struggle. Lost time and sleep with the infected finger. It's much better now.

I feel OK with the CL exercise. We're above $50K. Several days were pretty terrible trading, however I am getting better at trusting myself. The big learning lesson there is to do up the analysis pick your price and wait for it. Don't lose confidence in the analysis and trade early. If it doesn't unfold today it will in the o/n session or tomorrow.

I'm surprised people don't notice - but I guess they will when it goes above a million dollars.

Then the moaners will start going - "yes but it wouldn't have happened with real money"- even though the trades are posted in advance and anyone with $20 could just follow along. "Yes but you were over-leveraged" -even though I show I'm well within margin.

They'll quote some rule like 2% per trade which is fine if you are just mucking about with some indicators doing the same old thing you've done for the last ten years with no equity growth and not having any consistent edge. They can't read charts and we all know "technical analysis doesn't work". Of course they mean chart reading and not indicators which they use - which are also technical analysis.

(BTW Anything based on time and price data is technical analysis - as apposed to "funnymental" analysis based on earnings, revenue economic data etc.)

It will be interesting to see. So this is typed and time stamped

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #198 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

In my apt building there is a sexy girl, who I recognize by the sound of her boots on the pavement.
I heard the sound, and when out to my balcony to check (her out).

To my surprise it wasn't her but another young lady, with beautiful flowing hair.
I waited for her to turn around.

Surprise, surprise the girl who lives at the end of the hall!

"Nice hair!" - I called out gauchely.

She turned around and laughed! with a big smile! Gotta love the big smile!

-------
what has this to do with trading? ... SFA. but...

It is
spring.

And young men's
thoughts,
turn to beautiful maidens,
with laughing eyes,
smiling lips,
and inviting curves.

-Robert Neils

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #199 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

Look for God everywhere.
Find Him in places unexpected.

Love is in your heart,
Joy is your Life.

-robert neils

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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  #200 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,012 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,500 given, 2,571 received

-----Week 9: 23 May to 27 May -------

Monday 5/23 - no trades
Tuesday 5/24 - no trades
Wednesday 5/25 - no trades

Thursday 5/26 = +6.0 pts
ES SLD 1 1323.50 @ 14:05 (5/25), BOT 1 @ 1317.50 @ 9:38 5/26 = +6.0 pts

Friday 5/27 - no trades

Week 9 = +6.0 pts.
--

..........
peace, love and joy to you
.........
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