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Trading

  #151 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
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Saturday and sunny

WoW!
sunshine! (ok scattered and broken - but it's trying!)

My thoughts about this past week are that:
  • getting to bed,
  • having a sound sleep and
  • getting up on time rested and ready to go are the keys to my success.

For example, on Thursday I wrote:

"9:27 an now I'm ready! .. great! FE=LE at 8:51 and at L1298.25 -now 1306.50 =8.25 of 13.75.
Lovely! Just F..king lovely."


What this means is that by the time I was ready the key trade had already happened - the low of the day at 1298.25 and that it was already +8.25 pts higher i.e. too late and and move of the move has happened.

When I don't get up on time at 3:30am PT, I'm not ready and the above is what unfolds.

The key is sleep and schedule.
Today, Saturday I slept in til about 10:30am (PT=local time). So this means that the challenge will be to set the alarm for 3:30am and get up then - as practice for Monday morning.

Good trading to everyone.

Last edited by aquarian1; April 17th, 2011 at 12:54 AM.
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  #152 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
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Time of turns

On the question board, there was a question as to whether time is a factor, an important piece of information in the prediction of price turns. I would say it is.

Below is an example from this mornings spreadsheet showing 2 time estimates. (section.jpg)
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It shows that the time of the Buy/sell at near open was 8:38 - it was 8:39am. (time1.jpg)
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The second part is the time estimate of the FE. It shows the estimate of the time of the FE at 9:11. The actual FE was at 9:03 an error of estimate of 6 mins for the turn in price. (time2.jpg).
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The estimates are made before the opening bell.

Using the approximate price and time initial estimate of L1329.25 @ 9:11, the time estimate is further refined to 9:06 that is using the incorrect price estimate of 1329.25.

It should be remembered that today is a choppy little per holiday trading day and not the best for demonstrating time&price. On some days the estimates are further refined once the FE is place to give a precise time estimate, sometimes to the minute of the SE. (My research is still preliminary yet I feel that this example should indicate the potential of accurate time estimation to the open mind.)


The rules of my system, abbreviations and examples are on the sticky of page 1

Good trading to everyone.
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  #153 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


https://futures.io/trading-journals/7984-trading.html#post93470

Rules and abbreviations on page1 of this journal

Sorry for the broken link - perhaps this will work!

Good trading to everyone.
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  #154 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Summary Week4 +27.5 pts
(Apr18 to Apr 22)

Monday +17.25
Tuesday +9.0
Wednesday +6.25
Thursday -5.0
Friday +0

Total for week4: +27.5 pts

Trades 15-18 Apr
Sld 1 1314.25 @ 09:00 (opened on the 15th)
Bot 1 1297.00 (the close was on the 18th)
= +17.25

Trades 17-18 Apr
Bot 1 1294.25 @ 22:05
Sld 1 1303.25 @11:14
= +9.00

Trades 18-19 Apr
Bot 1 1301.25 @ 4:51
Sld 1 1307.50 @12:43
= +6.25

Trades 19-20 Apr
Sld 1 1316 @22:08
Bot 1 1321 @ 3:55 (stopped out)
= -5

Trades 20-25 Apr
Sld 1 1334.75 @18:07
Bot 1 1334.75 @ 3:09 (stopped out)
= +0

Notes: Not very happy with trade5 of 20-25April. I had used an adjustable stop, which adjusted to trail 6 at 6pts profit. This resulted in the stop reducing from 1338 to 1334.75. The high was 1335.25 and it has been as low as 1327.75 this morning Monday the 25th of April. Rather than an automatic adjustment I think I'll leave the stop fixed.

---------
Summary Week1 +11pts
Summary Week2 +13.25 pts
Summary Week4 +27.5 pts

Good trading to everyone.
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  #155 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Monday - no trades narrow range day - 6.75 pts.

510 rule had FE at 8:52 vs actual at 8:51am.

signals for the direction of the first leg were mixed.

Spent most of the day posting.

Good trading to everyone.
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  #156 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Today I woke-up late. Too much time spent on-line on non-core activities yesterday.

The overnight trade had a low of 1326.5 and a high of 1335. Also there was a "Breakout?" signal last night. This means there is a possibility of a breakout but it is not for sure.
("Breakout!" means for sure.) The breakout level last night, as computed by the program was 1341.50.

As the default stop is 5pts and 1335 was the estimated high, then 1340 is the buystop price, and with 1341.50 indicated then being taken out on the stop is indicated.

With this, I have decided to amend the overnight orders so that if "breakout?" or "breakout" shows I will amend the low order upwards to reflect the upwards bias and not enter a sell order for the overnight high.

The overnight low default estimate is prices-low (this in my version of VAL) less x points. So this will amend to price-low without any subtraction.

Last night I missed getting filled on the o/n low by 1.75pts (low 1328-0.25 for the edge =1327.75).


Today's trades:
ES SLD 1335.50 @3:49 BOT 1342.25 at 10:01 = -6.75pts
CL SLD 112.31 @9:29 BOT 112.11 at 10:08 = +0.20 *1000 /50= +4pts (es equivalent)
NET = -2.75pts


Clippings:

"A member of German Chancellor Merkel's council of economic advisers said Greece will have to restructure its debt and should avoid waiting too long to do it, while ECB Council member and ECB Chief Economist Stark said a debt restructuring by a euro country risks triggering a banking crisis that in a "worst case" could exceed the effects of the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings."

Good trading to everyone.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading-jour2a.jpg   Trading-cl26apra.jpg   Trading-cl26aprb.jpg  
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  #157 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Wednesday, April 13, 2011 +9.2pts

Oh how I H--- ninja!
Let me count the ways,
Garbage in front on me,
Garbage behind me.
Garbage on all sides.

Today:
First time I opened Ninja it crashed my entire system. I come back from getting a coffee having already loaded two prg to find m system rebooting itself. Second time, I load Ninja first - maybe it likes everything to itself. Then my spreadsheet prg and IB. Link Ninja to the datafeed. Ninja (the newer forced update from 6.5.1xxx to 6.5.1000.19 -where do these creatons get there numbering systems? (How about a, b, c, )
then ...tadah! blank charts. Cntrl + shift + R nothing. shut down Ninja (again). restart Ninja.
Third time - now fouth time. 7:48 I started an hour ago!!!! A - R - G - H !!!!!

------------
Clipping:
Nokia Corp. said Wednesday it will slash 7,000 jobs worldwide, through both layoffs and outsourcing, as it strives to cut costs and catch up with its top rivals in the smartphone market. ... The announcements came as the world's top cellphone maker seeks to cut operating expenses by euro1 billion ($1.5 billion) by 2013 amid fierce competition that has seen its market share plunge and its profits plummet.

Feels like 2007
------
downloaded Cory's VolumeStopV3
----
CL trade +9.2 ES pts

Taking too long and exited

Good trading to everyone.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading-cl27apra.jpg   Trading-cl27aprb.jpg   Trading-cl27aprc.jpg  
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  #158 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thursday:

7:22 online in good time
high 1356.25 - this was the high when I was doing the end-of-day wrap-up.
I had set the alert sell of o/n high at 1356.75.
It's now 1349.25 so for 0.50 I'm not in the o/n trade

-------
more prbs with ninja.
Figured out I had to close all my old ES charts and make new ones.
This seems to have fixed the blank chart prb.
----
Quiet day for ES churning about in a narrow range.
I went to the board to see what was happening and made the mistake of going to a journal.

There the bully boys were beating up on someone.
Ticks me off that these trolls cruise around looking for newer traders to lord it over.
Same people who used to beat up on weaker kids in schoolyard no doubt.

"Let me tell you how the world is oh little one." -as if!
"When you are a seasoned pro like me you'll come to see that..." -sure, sure man.

I know, you're a multimillionaire seasoned pro who has descended from heaven to help out we lessor mortals with your droppings of wisdom.

I notice they never have a journal.

Let them start one.
-post their trades with stops and targets real time or in advance
and let's see them make even 2pts a day average over 20 trading days,
that +40ES pts or the equivalent at the end of 20 days -as if!!!

Yes that is 2pts differential - so 1346 to 1348 counts the same on 3 contracts as on 1, average entry price less average exit price.
(I can hear the excuses now: "Oh I'm too busy to do that. That is for beginners. I don't need to prove myself to anyone. I long since stopped doing that...")

Good trading to everyone.

Last edited by aquarian1; April 28th, 2011 at 07:44 PM.
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  #159 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thursday 28 Apr 2011

Thursday = 6.2pts
CL SLD 112.81 @13:34 BOT 112.50 at 20:04 = +0.31 *1000 /50= +6.2pts (es equivalent)

Good trading to everyone.
Attached Thumbnails
Trading-cl28apra.jpg   Trading-cl28aprb.jpg  
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  #160 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,815 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 960 given, 1,479 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Week 5 +11.95


------ week 5: 25 April to 29 April --------

Monday = no trades

Tuesday = -2.75
ES SLD 1335.50 @3:49 BOT 1342.25 at 10:01 = -6.75pts
CL SLD 112.31 @9:29 BOT 112.11 at 10:08 = +0.20 *1000 /50= +4pts (es equivalent)
NET = -2.75pts

Wednesday = 9,2pts
Sld 112.79 @ 11:56 Bot 112.33 @ 12:32 = +0.46 *1000 /50= +9.2pts (es equivalent pts)

Thursday = 6.2pts
CL SLD 112.81 @13:34 BOT 112.50 at 20:04 = +0.31 *1000 /50= +6.2pts (es equivalent)

Friday = 6.6pts
CL SLD 113.02 @ 8:00 BOT 112.69 at 8:38 = +0.33 *1000 /50= +6.6
pts (es equivalent)

Total for the week: 11.95

Chart of Friday's trade
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Good trading to everyone.
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