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Resolution number 3: If no entry before 10amCT turn off computer until wrap-up time.
Today I was up at 4:30PT and ready before opening bell but no hand charts. I had a lot of problems with ninja and could not get it running and showing the charts.
I posted 2 examples of CL and murray math in a new thread. It is just for fun and to encourage an experiment in group co-operative trading. The idea is that anyone who wants to can post their setup rules and then track their trades one a day with before and after screensnaps, target and stop.
After that I took a nap woke up about 1300PT and have been working on my closing numbers.
There was no fill in the o/n orders last night Est high 1332 vs 1329.75
Est low 1319 vs 1323.75
I am now filled on the 1319 long with a 5 pt stop.
Est for o/n H/l for Tuesday session
1330
1317.75
As i am long the low end already I have only put in the o/n high order (1330).
No closed trades today (currently long at 1319)
Here is a picture of last night's (sunday for monday) trades - jour1a.jpg
Here is a picture of the fill on last nights low at 1319- jour1b.jpg
Here is a picture of today's H/l estimate - perfect job on HE! - jour1c.jpg
Hi, well done. What do you use to determine your initial stop size?
"The primary thing required to obtain what you want from life, is simply the will to pursue it, and the faith to believe it is possible." - Author Unknown
"The ability to maintain discipline and stick to the rules is the hallmark of the experienced successful trader" - Curtis Faith
I have been taking naps after morning work to catch up on my sleep. However, I have been sleeping too long which means the evening wrap-up is too late. I was falling asleep trying to get my numbers done. When I went to put in o/n orders IB was "on strike" 23:45ET to 00:05am, so I couldn't enter my orders and went to bed.
Today I set an alarm which went off at 12:30CT - and got up about 13:00. Everything is still a struggle with the clock.
Though I pushed myself and got up this morning I certainly wasn't clear-headed.
I was looking for a high and it was already in (in the premarket). I need to develop a system for noticing this. When the alarm went off I was thinking of just cancelling Wednesday. Prehaps that would have been best but I am pushing hard to get my body/mind to wake up at 3:30amPT.
Though through shear discipline I was up and gathered the numbers - a mental fog of tiredness overlay everthing.
My estimates of HZ and LZ were way off - offset my 5pts too high. The distance between zones was accurate, though. I have noticed in my wrap-up that the SA line is in the HZ - where it normally is below it. Perhaps a clue?
Thank-you for your question.
In essence the spreadsheet tells me. It has evolved over 3 yrs now and I'm not really sure what it is doing! (hah, hah)
What I mean by that is there is a complex web of formulae and calculations that have evolved themselves over time.
However, to better answer the question the BIG size maximum stop for ES - assuming normal range which has not happened for 2 yrs since Benbawae Ben - is 7pts. However, I used 5 pts as a maximum. Then I will take the lessor of the breakdown or stop-run price.
The LZ (or HZ for that matter) is 3 points wide +- 1.5pts to the estimate low. So for example if the estimated low is 1298.25 then +-1.5 to that is 1299.75 to 1296.75. Why +-1.5 pts?
(I used to use a wider range and as time progressed and my estimates got better I tightened the band.)
So the low stop is the lessor of the:
breakdown price
the low stop-run price
and 5 pts default.
The breakdown price is determined by looking at the lows over the prior 3 days and taking into account stop-running.
The low stop run price is the lower of yesterdays' low or the o/n low plus an amount for stop-running. (5 pts is well, 5 pts and this is only my personal limit and as mentioned as wide as 7 pts could be used.)
Bottom-line is that no trade is entered into without a points profit potential (PPP) of 6 and the maximum stop is 5.
As I am only trading days of 12pts or more - then I am really looking at 12 PPP versus maximum of 5 on the stop.
I would like to clarify on my phrase "the lessor of"
What I meant by that is the "lessor distance of'
so if one stop is 5
and another is 3.5
and another is 1.5
then it is the 1.5 I am taking.
In general, the closer you can get your entry to the maximum stop the better, in that 1.5 is better than 3.5 is better than 5.
As what I am doing is trying to pick the turns, (so countertrend) the entire procedure is risky. So if the turn is close to the the maximum stop then that is great because your potential loss is reduced.
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