Didn’t get to sleep until 10:40PST and awake at 5:40 and up at 6:05am. Net = 6.5hrs sleep.
It is now 12:06CT. I have the morning numbers in – no hand charts made yet. Range estimates seem way too low at about 8pts. Thinking there will be a slow grind upwards, rising and falling, slowly chipping away at the stops. See chart.
BOT 1326.25 SLD 1323.25 -stopped out at -3
Net = -3pts
-3 is my maximum stop for the system. However, the system is for RTH hours and the evening before estimates are adjusted with the o/n and pre-open price action. Originally I had set the default stop for maximum 5 pts. About 1 year ago I adjusted to downward to 3 pts and adjusted the formulae for 3 pts maximum.
This is partly because during the day I can fine tune the H/L estimates especially the SE. So once the FE is in place then I can get a better idea of the SE.
I had forgotten that I had tightening the maximum stop to 3pts and last night's order I put in the stop from a spreadsheet printout. The o/n low was 1323.00 @3:18. This means I was stopped out by one tick!
So for o/n I will go back to 5pts.
Very annoying turn a great trade into a losing trade. We had had the high of 1334.25 @ 12:12. This means that with a 5 pt stop, which would not have been hit, I would have been at +8pts. As the estimated range reduced to 8.50 from 9.75 last night, 8.50 gives 1333.75 (1325.25+8.50), so a good sell target - as I need the one tick to ensure a fill.
All in all though it was a losing trade I don't feel badly about it. I was on the correct side of the trade, the estimate of the low was reasonably close for blind shooting, and I have identified and corrected the problem.
resolution for improvement
I think I will start making a separate estimate for the o/n trades.
There were not fills on the overnight orders and I canceled them once on-line.
Asleep at 10:50 broken sleep and struggled to get up after 3:30 alarm finally up at 5:30PST
6.5 hrs. Deficit this week 7hrs. Went for a walk yesterday => score 1 of 3.
I didn't get filled on the sell 1332.75.
I'm not sure why as it went to 1333.
(Perhaps "It is the mystery of the dance." - Lisa puts her tap shoes on episode.)
