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Trading

  #111 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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the chop

Avoiding the chop with the ADX (141

The areas below the dotted purple line on the ADX which I've draw highlight boxes on are supposed to be chop areas.

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  #112 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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Monday even for Tues 5 Apr

Tomorrow is FOMC Tuesday (13:00CT)

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  #113 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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Tuesday 5 April 2011


Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Didnít get to sleep until 10:40PST and awake at 5:40 and up at 6:05am. Net = 6.5hrs sleep.

It is now 12:06CT. I have the morning numbers in Ė no hand charts made yet. Range estimates seem way too low at about 8pts. Thinking there will be a slow grind upwards, rising and falling, slowly chipping away at the stops. See chart.

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  #114 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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Rth trade 1

Buying for FOMC high spike
13:17
in for 2 with 1 remaining.
BOT 1 at 1331.75 @ 13:13
BOT 1 at 1331.25 @ 13:18

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  #115 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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last night trade

BOT 1326.25
SLD 1323.25 -stopped out at -3
Net = -3pts

-3 is my maximum stop for the system. However, the system is for RTH hours and the evening before estimates are adjusted with the o/n and pre-open price action. Originally I had set the default stop for maximum 5 pts. About 1 year ago I adjusted to downward to 3 pts and adjusted the formulae for 3 pts maximum.

This is partly because during the day I can fine tune the H/L estimates especially the SE. So once the FE is in place then I can get a better idea of the SE.

I had forgotten that I had tightening the maximum stop to 3pts and last night's order I put in the stop from a spreadsheet printout. The o/n low was 1323.00 @3:18. This means I was stopped out by one tick!

So for o/n I will go back to 5pts.

Very annoying turn a great trade into a losing trade. We had had the high of 1334.25 @ 12:12. This means that with a 5 pt stop, which would not have been hit, I would have been at +8pts. As the estimated range reduced to 8.50 from 9.75 last night, 8.50 gives 1333.75 (1325.25+8.50), so a good sell target - as I need the one tick to ensure a fill.

All in all though it was a losing trade I don't feel badly about it. I was on the correct side of the trade, the estimate of the low was reasonably close for blind shooting, and I have identified and corrected the problem.

resolution for improvement
I think I will start making a separate estimate for the o/n trades.

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  #116 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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overnight orders

overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50
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  #117 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
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aquarian1 View Post
overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50

Actual o/n
1336.50
1326

so bottom off by +0.50 - I've adjusted the formula
late state today - not enough sleep
gotta rush back to work
here's a map for today.

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  #118 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,696 received
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Wednesday update

There were not fills on the overnight orders and I canceled them once on-line.

Asleep at 10:50 broken sleep and struggled to get up after 3:30 alarm finally up at 5:30PST
6.5 hrs. Deficit this week 7hrs. Went for a walk yesterday => score 1 of 3.

Trades:
Monday +3.0
Tuesday -3.0


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Last edited by aquarian1; April 6th, 2011 at 05:46 PM.
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  #119 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,696 received
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Practice trading

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  #120 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,133 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,137 given, 1,696 received
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Wed = +0.25


I didn't get filled on the sell 1332.75.
I'm not sure why as it went to 1333.
(Perhaps "It is the mystery of the dance." - Lisa puts her tap shoes on episode.)

So we have a +0.25 for today.

In other news the range estimate was way to wide.

I think I've figured out why and will adjust things after the closing data wrap-up.

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