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  #901 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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USA debt by sectors


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  #902 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Authored by John Kay, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

It is easier for both regulators and market participants to follow the crowd. Only a brave person would stand in the way of those expecting to become rich by trading Internet stocks with one another, or would deny people the opportunity to own their own homes because they could not afford them.

From Bezzle To Bummer - The Mirage Of "Psychic" Wealth

article posted here:



A few days ago a viewed a video on the crash of 1929 (posted above). In the movie one prominent banker broke from the ranks and issued a warning 6 months prior to the crash. He was ridiculed and scorned. He took steps to protect his bank. After the crash, not only was he never thanked but he became depressed that though steps could have been taken to ease the crash, none were and much suffering followed.

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  #903 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Functionally equivalent Embezzlement

I have notice how the MSM and even alternative writers studiously avoid the FEB of the FED.

Those who know financial planning know of the rule of 100. This rule of thumb says that your age is the amount that should be in guaranteed investments (GIs). (such as GICs/CDs and Tbills or savings accounts back by govt guarantee)

AS an example at age 65, 65% should be in GIs and 35% in equities . This was fine when the 65% earned a safe 5% interest. So a pensioner with 1,000,000 would have 650,000*.05=$32,500 income from GIs, other pension income and 35% for growth.

When the FED began its FEB it forced rates to zero for GIs, Now pensioners and savers earned ZERO. This "rubbery" or FEB -to support of the FED's owners (the Banksters) continued from 2009 to 20....

Ten years of 5 percent is 1.629 on the $650,000 goes to $1,058,780 or $408,781 or "rubbery".

This money doesn't come back. The decade of impoverishment or "fembezzlement" is gone and in the pockets of the CEOs of banksters.

Yet each year electricity bills rose, and food bills rose, and heating cost rose, and gas prices and cars bills rose, and taxes rose. And each year the pensioner had to dip into the capital saved over a lifetime to pay the bills.

And the FED and banksters laughed jingling the keys to your bank account and the gold in their pockets.

Mammon knows no morals.

\------------\
fembezzlement was coined by Charlie Munger (see article link in prior post)

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  #904 (permalink)
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PFE

A trader can use market reversal signals from the Polarized Fractal Efficiency, or PFE, indicator to create a basic trading strategy that is implemented with one additional, confirming technical indicator. The PFE indicator is designed to measure the efficiency of price movement. It is based on the fundamental axiom of geometry that the most efficient movement, in this case the movement of price, is linear movement. Therefore, it accords price movement in a more linear, as opposed to up and down, movement as indicating a stronger, more definitive trend. PFE values range from -100 to +100, in reference to a zero line that differentiates positive and negative values.

A common forex trading strategy employed with the PFE uses the indicator to anticipate trend changes. The theory behind the strategy is that once the PFE reading shows maximum efficiency of price movement with readings near +100 or -100, the movement or momentum of price is likely to deteriorate and subsequently reverse. A complementary indicator that is also often used to anticipate trend change or market retracement is the moving average convergence divergence MACD.

The following is a trading strategy that uses the PFE in conjunction with the MACD to provide trading signals for a market reversal trade:

The trade signal is a PFE reading greater than +90 or -90.

The trade is only entered if at the same time the PFE shows the required extreme reading and the MACD shows divergence from price by turning in the opposite direction of the existing trend.
Provided both trade entry conditions are met, a trade is initiated in the opposite direction of the trend, selling in an existing uptrend or buying in an existing downtrend.
The initial profit target is the price that represents a 35% retracement of the trend.
An initial stop-loss order is placed 50 pips from the trade entry price.

source:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/how-do-i-use-polarized-fractal-efficiency-pfe-create-forex-trading-strategy.asp

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  #905 (permalink)
Data Wizard!!!
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aquarian1 View Post
article posted here:



A few days ago a viewed a video on the crash of 1929 (posted above). In the movie one prominent banker broke from the ranks and issued a warning 6 months prior to the crash. He was ridiculed and scorned. He took steps to protect his bank. After the crash, not only was he never thanked but he became depressed that though steps could have been taken to ease the crash, none were and much suffering followed.

Unfortunately, without pain and suffering there would be no learning.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #906 (permalink)
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Not true Robert, many learn with caring coaches encouragement and with joy.

-however - those at the top who cause the pain and suffering are not the ones who pay the price.

If you watch the movie, you will see that the bankers knew what they were doing and were manipulating prices.
Those in power knew they were cheating and robbing.

----------
The pain and suffering of the next crash will hurt millions who are poor now.
They don't have enough to make ends meet.
Several work two low-paying jobs

Some grew up in slums with lead paint.

Many are hungry.
Many are homeless.

Great pain and suffering will be caused by the fat rich ugly decadent who care not the pain they cause.
Janet suggested to the poor to get rich

At least Antoinette lost her head.

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  #907 (permalink)
Data Wizard!!!
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aquarian1 View Post
Not true Robert, many learn with caring coaches encouragement and with joy.

-however - those at the top who cause the pain and suffering are not the ones who pay the price.

If you watch the movie, you will see that the bankers knew what they were doing and were manipulating prices.
Those in power knew they were cheating and robbing.

----------
The pain and suffering of the next crash will hurt millions who are poor now.
They don't have enough to make ends meet.
Several work two low-paying jobs

Some grew up in slums with lead paint.

Many are hungry.
Many are homeless.

Great pain and suffering will be caused by the fat rich ugly decadent who care not the pain they cause.
Janet suggested to the poor to get rich

At least Antoinette lost her head.

My grandparents lived through the depression. I looked up to all of them as pillars of strength, not with pity for which they suffered. Each of them taught me a lot about living without. My grandfather had the worst of it. He lost two brothers to starvation and lost what few things he had in the flood of 37. But he said he would not change a thing. He told me through the hardships of the depression came greatness and strength. Through that strength, he said, we kept a dictator at bay and kept him from killing millions more. We built monuments to the world and showed that we as a nation can prevail under any circumstance.

yes, those at the top may not have suffered but their dark deeds are overshadowed by the lessons learned from the hardship which were overcome by the masses.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #908 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
My grandparents lived through the depression. I looked up to all of them as pillars of strength, not with pity for which they suffered. Each of them taught me a lot about living without. My grandfather had the worst of it. He lost two brothers to starvation and lost what few things he had in the flood of 37. But he said he would not change a thing. He told me through the hardships of the depression came greatness and strength. Through that strength, he said, we kept a dictator at bay and kept him from killing millions more. We built monuments to the world and showed that we as a nation can prevail under any circumstance.

yes, those at the top may not have suffered but their dark deeds are overshadowed by the lessons learned from the hardship which were overcome by the masses.

Robert

I am very pleased your grandfather had the personal strength to go through it and to take strength from hardship.

(I am not clear how your grandfather linked this to the war and the dictator - but without the depression and then hyperinflation it is unlikely - from what I know of history - Hitler would have been able to galvanize the Germans to accept Nazism, that is the war may not have happened without the crash).

My concern is that we lose compassion for those who cannot help themselves and a second concern is that we not strengthen evil. The rich made money from creating the bubble of 1929, they made money from the crash and they made money from depression and they made more money from the war and terror and killing.

I think there is a better way to move the world forward rather than through crushing the weak and climbing upon their backs to make ones money. However all this digresses from the theme of trading and I ask that further discussion should be elsewhere.

I am glad you found use of the ATR calculation for stop distance estimation and are one of the few who understood the importance of the calculation. To keep this more on trading I will pose a question for your thoughts.

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  #909 (permalink)
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Shortly after the ATR stop calculation post I was thinking of a particular day and the relationship of trend steepness and of retracement.

As a very general observation when a new sharp intraday downtrend starts, there is an initial plunge of quite a steep slope then a pause and retracement (usually short-lived) and then a second down leg, not quite as steep as the first plunge, a retracement (which lasts a little longer and retraces slightly higher as a percentage of the decline than the first, and then a strong wash-out plunge.

I was thinking that perhaps through examination of the:
steepness and length of plunge one,
the ratio and slope of retracement one (so this includes time),
the steepness and length of plunge two,
the ratio and slope of retracement two,
and the final wash-out,

that a mathematical formula could be derived to give estimates of each.

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  #910 (permalink)
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ES (contract roll on Monday)

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  #911 (permalink)
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a good video on chaos theory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJAs9Qr359o

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  #912 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
PFE

A trader can use market reversal signals from the Polarized Fractal Efficiency, or PFE, indicator to create a basic trading strategy that is implemented with one additional, confirming technical indicator. The PFE indicator is designed to measure the efficiency of price movement. It is based on the fundamental axiom of geometry that the most efficient movement, in this case the movement of price, is linear movement. Therefore, it accords price movement in a more linear, as opposed to up and down, movement as indicating a stronger, more definitive trend. PFE values range from -100 to +100, in reference to a zero line that differentiates positive and negative values.

A common forex trading strategy employed with the PFE uses the indicator to anticipate trend changes. The theory behind the strategy is that once the PFE reading shows maximum efficiency of price movement with readings near +100 or -100, the movement or momentum of price is likely to deteriorate and subsequently reverse. A complementary indicator that is also often used to anticipate trend change or market retracement is the moving average convergence divergence MACD.

The following is a trading strategy that uses the PFE in conjunction with the MACD to provide trading signals for a market reversal trade:

The trade signal is a PFE reading greater than +90 or -90.

The trade is only entered if at the same time the PFE shows the required extreme reading and the MACD shows divergence from price by turning in the opposite direction of the existing trend.
Provided both trade entry conditions are met, a trade is initiated in the opposite direction of the trend, selling in an existing uptrend or buying in an existing downtrend.
The initial profit target is the price that represents a 35% retracement of the trend.
An initial stop-loss order is placed 50 pips from the trade entry price.

source:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/how-do-i-use-polarized-fractal-efficiency-pfe-create-forex-trading-strategy.asp

Sierra doesn't have PFE indicator to check it out....darn it .

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I don't trade the euro but it looks to be at a key level = 1.209275




09/08/17 (9/7 17:15:00-9/8 17:00:00) EST
EUR.USD@IDEALPRO Midpoint
High:1.209275

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see attached zip

(wordpad file)

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Attached Files
Register to download File Type: zip stopwindows10uddpate.zip (357.5 KB, 5 views)
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May 1, 2018

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Psychological Reversal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-yLFGXBLEU


"This psychological reversal will leave you feeling frustrated, disappointed or angry with yourself. And as you continue to criticize judge, and get down on yourself it only reinforces the psychological reversal."
min 20:25

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https://www.youtube.com/embed/pZvCZQtFLlU


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I collect data at the end of each day
Today the ETH and RTH ranges were the same both 17 points - so both highs the same and both lows the same.

High: 2741.25
Low: 2724.25
(the o/n low was 2727.25)

NB 2741.25-2591.25=150 exactly.
(today - LOW 466 may 3 -see Fat Pitch Journal)

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Prior post:
Thursday April 26th, 2018, 07:51 PM

key level = 1.209275
"If it breaks this on the weekly it could fall further."
"Stand aside at this key level."
-----
Update : Monday 14 May 2018
It broke the level on the Monday two TD later.
and has been to Low: 1.182275




----------------
05/09/18 (5/8 17:15:00-5/9 17:00:00) EST
EUR.USD@IDEALPRO Midpoint
High:
1.189700
Low: 1.182275
Open:
1.186450
Close:
1.185075
Time Avg:
1.185852

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rimartin View Post
________________________________________________________________________________________

I have NcatRSD - mine says its from Ninjacators - when I call them about it they don't return my call or emails I believe
there is an advanced version as this one was free from them but now it is not even listed on the Ninjacator web site

I am looking for source code Thanks

Hi,

First I appreciate your comments and help.

Yes I want the indicator ZonesFromExcel .

Could you send it to me?. Thank you

On the other hand I think it is useful the indicator NCatRSD.zip . I Attached it In case you want to testing.


I have NcatRSD - mine says its from Ninjacators - when I call them about it they don't return my call or emails I believe
there is an advanced version as this one was free from them but now it is not even listed on the Ninjacator web site

I am looking for source code Thanks

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rimartin View Post
________________________________________________________________________________________



Hi,

First I appreciate your comments and help.

Yes I want the indicator ZonesFromExcel .

Could you send it to me?. Thank you

On the other hand I think it is useful the indicator NCatRSD.zip . I Attached it In case you want to testing.


Im looking for full version of ncatRSD

Ninjacators doesn't show it


aquarian1 View Post
I make my estimates in a spreadsheet each morning before opening.
Then I use ZonesFromExcel to enter these which show up as bands (the green zones and red lines).
--let me know if you want the indicator and I'll zip it for you.-- I think it is from here but I'm not sure



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Tuesday 29 May, 2018
12:33 PM 5/29/2018

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12:49 PM 5/29/2018


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hod $5.73

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8 min chart
top green bar is the estimated high zone
bottom green bar is the estimated low zone

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6:22 AM 6/5/2018
LONDON (Reuters) - World tech stocks hit a record high on Tuesday, spurred on by a new all-time peak for Apple, a 17-year top for European tech firms and news that Twitter and Netflix were set to join Wall Street's flagship S&P 500 index.

MSCI's global tech index scored the milestone after the FAANGs -- Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google -- drove the technology-heavy Nasdaq to a new closing high in New York on Monday.

That then raised Asia's big BATTS -- Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung -- with Alibaba notching a new high and Baidu surging 5 percent for its best day in more than a month.

Europe got in on the act too as tech stocks there jumped more than 1 percent .SX8P> in a third day of gains that took them to their highest since the dot-com boom of 2001.

"The market is being pushed up by just a few huge companies," said Jerome Schupp, equity analyst at Prime Partners in Lausanne.

"All big names from Apple to Amazon and Microsoft are able to make huge buybacks and acquisitions, and the internal growth of most of these companies is pretty in line with expectations."

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Here is the text of Italy's (new) premier's speech, - which I found very interesting. Breaking the mafia, corruption, golden pensions and tax evasion of international corporations are some daunting tasks. I wish him well.
----------
ROME - After the keynote speech by the premier Giuseppe Conte, the 'government of change' prepares to go before the Chambers to get the vote of confidence.

Conte presented himself this morning at 12 in the Senate to expose the programmatic lines of the new government. The vote of Palazzo Madama is expected at the end of the discussion of the classroom, which will start at 14.30. Tomorrow will be the turn of the Chamber of Deputies, which will vote at 5.40 pm.

Here is the text of his speech in the Senate:
"SALUTO MATTARELLA, REPRESENT NATIONAL UNIT"

"I greet the president of the republic who represents national unity and who followed the first not easy stages of formation of this government".
"ASSESS WITH HUMILITY, DETERMINATION AND PASSION"

"I take this task with humility, but also with determination, with the awareness of the limits but also with the passion of those who understand the weight of the high responsibilities that are entrusted to him"
"I CITIZEN TO DISPOSITION, I WILL BE GUARANTEE CONTRACT"

"As I know, I do not have previous political experiences. I am a citizen who has declared himself available to assume any responsibility for government "and" subsequently as guarantor for the implementation of the change program ".
"HONORED TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND ITALIAN INTEREST"

"I am deeply honored to be able to offer my commitment and my skills to defend the interests of the citizens of this wonderful country".
"TRUST IS FOR PROJECT FOR CHANGE"

"Today we present ourselves to you to ask for the trust in favor of not only a government team, but also a project for the change of Italy. A project that was formalized in the form of a contract by the two political forces that form the parliamentary majority, composed of the electoral programs presented in the elections and voted by the majority of Italians, as well as further legitimized by the votes the two political forces called respective members and supporters ".
"CONTRACT NOR RIGHT NO LEFT"

"Right or left contract? Insufficient to think so, shows inability to understand the deepest needs of the country ". So says Premier Giuseppe Conte, speaking in the Senate courtroom. "There are policies that are advantageous or disadvantageous for citizens".
"GRATE TO THOSE WHO HAVE RELIED TO PERSONAL AMBITIONS"

"I am grateful to those who, by renouncing legitimate personal ambitions, have been able to put in front of everything the general interest, for a project that exceeds the people called to carry it forward, and that makes me feel even more intensely the responsibility that I have assumed, well aware of the prerogatives that the art. 95 of the Constitution assigns to the President of the Council of Ministers ".
"IF POPULISM IS LISTENING TO PEOPLE, WE ARE"

"If populism is the attitude of the ruling class to listen to people's needs - I draw inspiration from Dostoevsky's reflections from the pages of Pushkin - if 'anti-system' means aiming to introduce a new system, which removes old privileges and encrustations of power, well these political forces deserve both these qualifications ".

"But to read carefully the government contract, it emerges how this attention to the needs of citizens is conducted in the high sign of Politics, with the - P - capital letter, with the aim of giving concrete implementation to the founding values ​​of our Constitution" .
"WE WILL FINALLY STOP BUSINESS MIGRANTS, THERE IS FINTA SOLIDARITY"

"It changes that we will put an end to the immigration business, grown out of all proportion under the cloak of fake solidarity".
"NEW SOCIAL PACT BASED ON ART.1 CONSTITUTION"

"In this time of crisis and difficulty we are committed to giving substance to the provision contained in the first article of our Constitution, which establishes the Republic on labor. We want to build a new transparent and fair social pact, based on solidarity but also on commitment, aware that only with everyone's participation in the development of the country can we guarantee a future of prosperity for our children ".

"We want to give voice to the many young people who can not find work: to those who are forced to move abroad and those who remain inactive here, who shut themselves up and become discouraged. In one case as in the other we end up dissipating precious resources of our country ".

"We need to give voice to the many women, often more educated and tenacious than men, and that in the workplace they are still unacceptably discriminated and less paid, and that they feel alone when they decide to give birth to a child".

"The diffusion of new technologies and the sharing economy creates new business opportunities and makes innovative services available to citizens, but also opens up risks of marginalization and new forms of exploitation: we must take responsibility for these transformations, not to combat development in many ways irreversible, but to ensure in any case respect for the essential rights of workers and to ensure that work is always an instrument of personal and human fulfillment ".
"DEBT WE WANT TO REDUCE BUT NOT WITH AUSTERITY"

"Again, we want to reduce the public debt, but we want to do it with the growth of our wealth, not with the austerity measures that, in recent years, have helped to make it rise".
"CORRUPTION, DASPO CORROTTI AND AGENT UNDER COVER"

"It changes that we will fight corruption with innovative methods like the 'daspo' to the corrupt and with the introduction of the undercover agent".
"DISABILITY, IT WILL BE A COUNTRY TO THE MEASURE OF WHOM NOW IS ABANDONED"

"It changes that we want a country suitable for disabled citizens - and there are a few millions - that too often find themselves abandoned to themselves and their families".
"HEALTH, WE WILL RESCIND THE TIE WITH POLITICS"

"It changes that we want to break the link between politics and health, to make the latter finally efficient throughout the national territory".
"SECURITY, MORE FUNDS AND MEANS IN EVERY CITY"

"Change that we will increase funds, resources and equipment to guarantee security in every city".
"US ALLILED PRIVILEGED, BUT STOP SANCTIONS RUSSIA"

"We first intend to reiterate the convinced belonging of our country to the Atlantic Alliance, with the United States of America as a privileged ally".

"We will be supporters of an openness to Russia, which has consolidated its international role in various geopolitical crises in recent years. We will promote a review of the sanctions system, starting with those that risk mortifying Russian civil society ".
"EUROPE IS OUR HOME, IS THE HOME OF US ALL"

"The elimination of the growth gap between Italy and the European Union is our goal, which must be pursued in a framework of financial stability and market confidence. Italian public debt is fully sustainable today; however, its reduction must be pursued, but also in terms of economic growth and above all in terms of economic growth ".

"The fiscal and public spending policy must be oriented towards the pursuit of the objectives set for stable and sustainable growth. In Europe these issues will be strongly brought forward for an adaptation of its governance, an adjustment already at the center of the reflection and discussion of all the member countries of the Union. We are moderately optimistic about the outcome of these reflections and confident of our negotiating power, because we are facing a situation in which Italy's interests, at this stage of the European construction, come to coincide with the general interests of Europe and with objective of preventing its eventual decline ".

"Europe is our home. It is the home of us all. As a founding country we have the full right to claim a stronger and even more equitable Europe, in which economic and monetary union is geared to protecting the needs of citizens, to better balance the principles of responsibility and solidarity ".
"GROWTH OBJECTIVE AND MARKET TRUST"

"The elimination of the growth gap between Italy and the European Union is our goal, which must be pursued in a framework of financial stability and market confidence".

"Italian public debt is fully sustainable today; however, its reduction must be pursued, but with a view to economic growth. The fiscal and public spending policy must be oriented towards the pursuit of the objectives set for stable and sustainable growth ".
"CUTTING TO PARLIAMENTARY AND VITALIZED PENSIONS"

"We need to cut the pensions and annuities of parliamentarians, regional councilors and employees of the constitutional bodies, including the social security system for ordinary pensioners".
"CUTS IN GOLD PENSIONS OVER 5,000 EUR IF NOT COVERED"

"The so-called pensions of gold are another example of unjustified privilege that must be opposed. We will intervene on checks exceeding 5,000 euros per month in the part not covered by contributions paid ".
"ENVIRONMENT, ANTICIPEREMO PROCESSI DECARRONONAZIONE"

As for the environment, "government action will be constantly focused on the protection of the environment, on the hydrogeological safety of our territory, on the development of the circular economy. With our political choices we will work to anticipate the processes, already in progress, of 'decarbonisation' of our production system ".

"We are not available to sacrifice the environment and the blue economy project for other purposes".
"TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THE SERVICE OF MAN"

"We do not want to passively assist in the evolution of the reality that surrounds us, perhaps favoring the particular interests of individual economic actors, but we are committed to governing these processes open to technological innovation, in the name of development at the service of man. We want to claim, also in this field, the 'high' role of politics, which is capable of guiding and governing changes in social, economic and cultural reality ".
"RESOLUTIONATION AGAINST POLITICAL PRIVILEGES"

"In the years that are closer to us, we have seen public investment reduced and compressed basic services. However, the privileges of politics and its waste have remained intact. This Government intends to act decisively ".

"The struggle against the privileges of politics and waste - he adds - is not merely a symbolic matter. If ordinary citizens face daily a thousand difficulties and humiliations because they do not have a job, have a pension below the threshold of dignity, work earning a derisory salary, it is not tolerable that the political class does not draw the due consequences in order economic treatment. Otherwise, the citizens' trust pact is broken against their institutions ".

"We will operate savings in all possible locations and I am convinced that we will cut large margins of intervention and we will achieve significant results".
"REFORM PRESCRIPTION, BASTA ESPEDIENTI"

"We will also reform the prescription, which must be returned to its original function, no longer reduced to a mere expedient to escape the due process".
"CONFLICT INTERESTS TARLO THAT MINA DEVELOPMENT, WE STRENGTHEN STRENGTHEN"

"The conflict of interests is a worm that undermines our economic-social system to its roots, and prevents its development taking place in accordance with the law and according to the rules of free competition". This was announced by Premier Giuseppe Conte in the Senate chamber.
"We will strengthen the current legislation in order to extend the hypotheses of conflict to include any useful, even indirect, that the agent can derive from his position or his own initiative. Furthermore, safeguards and safeguards to prevent the occurrence of potential conflicts of interest must be strengthened ".
"MAFIE, WE WILL CONTRACT WITH EVERY SUBMISSION"

"We will fight the mafias with all means, attacking their finances, their economies and hitting the networks of relationships that allow criminal organizations to become pervasive within the socio-economic fabric".
"CITIZENSHIP INCOME, ECONOMIC SUPPORT IN A SECOND STAGE"

"We propose, in a first phase, to strengthen the employment centers, in order to stimulate the meeting between supply and demand of work with the maximum efficiency and speed possible. In the second phase, the real economic support will be granted ".

"Even in Italy, as in other countries, inequalities have worsened and poverty has multiplied. Those who live in conditions of socio-economic distress are precluded from the possibility of fully developing their personality and participating effectively in the political, economic and social organization of our country, as foreseen by the second paragraph of article 3 of our Constitution. ".

"The Government's objective is to provide income support for the families most affected by socio-economic hardship. The benefit will be commensurate with the composition of the family unit and will be conditional on vocational training and job reintegration ".
"WE INTRODUCE THE PENSION OF CITIZENSHIP"

"We will take care to intervene also in favor of pensioners who do not have enough income to live in a dignified manner, by introducing a pension of citizenship".
"MIGRANTS, EU POLICIES FAILURE FOR EGOING CLOSURES"

"A first test of the new way in which we want to dialogue with European partners is certainly the discipline of immigration. It is clear to all that the management of the migratory flows carried out so far has been a failure: Europe has allowed selfish closures of many member states that have ended up downloading on the border states, and above all on our country, the burdens and difficulties that instead they should have been shared ".
"WE CALL FORCE WITH EXCEEDING DUBLIN REGULATION"

"We will strongly demand the overcoming of the Dublin Regulation in order to achieve effective compliance with the principle of fair sharing of responsibilities and to implement automatic systems for the compulsory relocation of asylum seekers. From the very first, a positive conversation I had with Chancellor Angela Merkel, I stressed the importance of this theme and the subsequent statements made by the same during the last weekend show how full awareness is being asserted that Italy can not be left behind alone in the face of these challenges ".
"WE ARE NOT RAZZISTS, DEFEND US REGULAR MIGRANT RIGHTS"

"We are not and we will never be racist. We want the procedures aimed at ascertaining the status of refugees to be certain and quick, also in order to guarantee their rights more effectively. We defend and defend immigrants who arrive regularly on our territory, work and become part of our communities respecting their laws and making a decisive contribution to development ".

"But to guarantee its indispensable integration, we must not only combat the most odious forms of exploitation linked to the trafficking of human beings, perpetrated by unscrupulous smugglers, but also reorganize and make the reception system efficient, ensuring transparency use of public funds and eliminating all forms of infiltration of organized crime ".
"REPATRIATORS MUST BE EFFECTIVE"

"If the legal requirements for their permanence are not met, we will work to make the return procedures effective and we will work to ensure that all third countries that want to make cooperation agreements with a member state of the Union will also have access to the European Union. to the signing of bilateral migration management agreements ".
"COMMOSSO THINKING FOR SACKO, WE ARE NOT INSENSIBLE"

"We are not insensitive at all. A reflection deserves the tragic and disquieting event occurred a few days ago. Sacko Soumayla was shot dead: he was one of a thousand laborers, with a regular residence permit, who every day in this country go to work in conditions that fall below the threshold of dignity. Our heart is moved to him and his family. But this is not enough. Politics must take responsibility for the drama of these people and guarantee legality routes, which constitute the polar star of this government program ".
"FISCO, DATATO SYSTEM: NOW REVOLUTIONARY MEASURES"

"Our tax system is dated and no longer reflects the current socio-economic reality".

"Large corporations, operating in the transactional space, manage to hide their wealth in artificial paradises, while small businesses and small taxpayers remain crushed by high fiscal pressure".

"Kotler is right: we need to rethink capitalism".

In the meantime, "we intend to introduce revolutionary measures that lead to an integral review of the tax system of income for individuals and businesses. Our fiscal pressure, combined with an excess of bureaucracy, in fact, negatively affects the quality of the tax relationship between the State and the taxpayers, as well as the competitiveness of our country ".
"TRUE CARCER FOR THE GREAT EVASORS"

It is "necessary to re-establish the relationship between the State and the taxpayers, in the name of good faith and mutual cooperation between the parties".

"But a concept must be reaffirmed here with absolute clarity: the existing administrative and penal sanctions framework must be tightened up in order to ensure the true prison for the great evaders".
"HEALTH, WE WILL REVIEW THE EXPENDITURE OF THE EXPENDITURE, WE WILL GUARANTEE CURE"

"The document of economy and finance already approved provides for a contraction of health spending. It will be the task of this Government to reverse this trend to guarantee the necessary equity in access to care ".

The president of the council adds that "socio-economic differences can not, should not be discriminating for the protection of health for the citizens of our country. We will pursue greater efficiency in the provision of services, both in terms of volumes, quality and outcomes of care, and in order to manage the accounts ".
"HEALTH, MERITOCRATIC APPOINTMENTS, WE REDUCE WAITING LISTS"

The Government "will work in agreement with the regions and the autonomous provinces to implement more effective organizational models, able to guarantee a correct management of patients, promoting the promotion and prevention of health through the integration of social and health services. as well as the strengthening of local medicine ".

"We want to reduce waiting times and we want the top management appointments in the healthcare world to be based on exclusively meritocratic criteria, strictly protected from undue political influences".
"THE WEB IS NOT NEUTRAL, STRENGTHENING SOME WARRANTIES"

"The society of tomorrow will be increasingly characterized by the Internet: an infinite public space, which facilitates production and access to knowledge, creates opportunities for innovation, reduces the distance between citizens and places of democracy and increases the transparency of decision-making processes. ".

"However, we are aware that the direction in which this technological progress develops is not neutral. We must ensure that this development direction is fully compatible with the protection of the fundamental human rights and with the needs of the community. We need to strengthen certain guarantees, both legal and institutional, in order to allow the definitive affirmation of digital citizenship ".
"SPORTS, IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTION TO THE DILETTANTISTIC ASSOCIATIONS"

"I would like to recall, in particular, the contribution to improving the quality of life offered by sporting practice and assured by volunteer experiences, through thousands of small amateur sports associations. This is a dimension of the world of sport that we intend to protect and enhance ".
"PROCUREMENT: REDUCE SLANCIO, EXCEED FORMALISMS"

"We must restore momentum to public procurement, which can become a fundamental lever of the country's economic policy, guaranteeing sustainable development and increasing employment".

"In recent years, this sector is going through a phase of arrest, determined for the most part also by the uncertainties of interpretation and certain rigidities generated by the new code of public contracts".

According to the President of the Council "we must overcome the formalism as an end in itself that still largely dominates the rules of procurement, since the form can not be exchanged for legality: too often formally perfect tenders conceal corruption and do not prevent bad execution".
"WE WILL STUDY ANTI-BROKER REFORM FOR FOREIGN VOTE"

"The Government will pay due attention also to the legitimate requests that will come from Parliamentarians elected abroad. We have already begun to meditate on the criticism of the voting system abroad and on the need to introduce appropriate measures to prevent the risk that votes are accompanied by fraud. "
"OPEN TO GROUPS WHO WILL TAKE TO CONTRACT"

"We will also be available to evaluate, during the course of work, the contribution of parliamentary groups that will want to share our journey and, if necessary, subsequently join the government contract, offering a more stable contribution to the implementation of our program".
5 June 2018

(The information on the Dire website can be used and reproduced, on condition that the source "Agenzia DIRE" and the address "www.dire.it" are expressly mentioned )
Source: (google trans)of:
https://www.dire.it/05-06-2018/208750-conte-fiducia-senato-discorso-completo/

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  #929 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released On 6/6/2018 10:30:00 AM For wk6/1, 2018
Prior Actual
Crude oil inventories (weekly change) -3.6 M barrels 2.1 M barrels
Gasoline (weekly change) 0.5 M barrels 4.6 M barrels
Distillates (weekly change) 0.6 M barrels 2.2 M barrels

-------
9:47 AM 6/6/2018
CL breaking below the 64.96 high could give a substantial down move.
I would wait until you have a complete day's bar below,
(- or for aggressive traders: a red body below and an open lower than Yest's red body)
before shorting for a multiday move.

The safest short entry is for price to go below the S/R line and then back up to touch it and fail there and start dropping again, but this pull-back to the S/R doesn't always happen.






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  #930 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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trouble getting in on old machine
may not be by as often

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Market Wizard
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gives invalid site certificate error -sigh

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Does anyone have thoughts on crude oil? Any entry points you would think about entering the next few trading days? Crude oil has been on a wild ride lately!

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Market Wizard
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When I originally set up my spreadsheets - many years back - I was thinking just find the HOD or LOD whichever is first. If the LOD was first that would imply the direction of the day (dir) is up so Dir=+1. If the HOD was first then the dir=-1 (or down).


Of course this was too simplistic - for most days.

If the ES starts high, falls 20pts and then rises again 20.5 (forming a "V" shape) then there is a change in intraday direction from down to up.

So even though the dir is +1 (with +20.5 > -20) the first leg dir -1 seems to be what the model finds.

At this point I thinking about adding another dir so the above would have
dir1=-1 and dir2=+1

Ideas?

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Market Wizard
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I watched a webinar this evening Kevin Davey on Algo trading, which from youtube lead me to a youtube of a podcast with EP Chan
How quant trading strategies are developed and tested w/ Ernie Chan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW9zQ8Hz6gQ

which lead to EP Chan's blog and this article

Quantitative Trading: Loss aversion is not a behavioral bias

The article startedwith this:
"Loss aversion is not a behavioral bias
In his famous book "Thinking, Fast and Slow", the Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman described one common example of a behavioral finance bias:

"You are offered a gamble on the toss of a [fair] coin.
If the coin shows tails, you lose $100.
If the coin shows heads, you win $110.
Is this gamble attractive? Would you accept it?"

later...

"According to standard stochastic calculus, in the continuous approximation it is -0.0005125 per round - we are losing, not gaining! The layman is right to refuse this gamble."

Following the link "stochastic calculus" we go to:
Quantitative Trading: Paradox Resolved: Why Risk Decreases Expected Log Return But Not Expected Wealth

which includes:
"To compute that, it is easier to first find out what the expected log price of the stock is at time t, because that is just the expected value of the sum of the log returns in each time interval, and is of course equal to the sum of the expected value of the log returns when we assume a geometric random walk. So the expected value of the log price at time t is just t * (m-s2 /2). But what is the expected price (not log price) at time t? It isn't correct to say exp(t * (m-s2 /2)), because the expected value of the exponential function of a normal variable is not equal to the exponential function of the expected value of that normal variable, or E[exp(x)] !=exp(E[x]). Instead, E[exp(x)]=exp(μ+σ2 /2) where μ and σ are the mean and standard deviation of the normal variable (see Ruppert). In our case, the normal variable is the log price, and thus μ=t * (m-s2 /2), and σ2=t *s2 . Hence the expected price at time t is exp(t*m). Note that it doesn't involve the volatility s. Risk doesn't affect the expected wealth at time t. But we just argued in the previous paragraph that the expected compound growth rate is lowered by risk. What gives?"

"It is ill-defined because wealth is not an "ergodic" variable: its finite-time average is not equal to its "ensemble average".

OK now my head is spinning :-)

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https://www.hfr.com/news/new-hedge-fund-launches-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2000

"30 percent of all hedge funds currently charge equal to or greater than a “2-and-20” fee structure."

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LONDON (Reuters) - Global equity funds saw massive outflows this week, a sharp reversal from last week's inflows as pessimism over economic growth gripped investors once again, driving them instead to search for yield in credit and buy safer assets like bonds.

Some $20.7 billion was pulled from equity funds in the week to March 20, while $12.1 billion was ploughed into bond funds, the biggest inflows since January 2018, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) strategists said on Friday citing data from EPFR.

Despite big gains for stocks globally this year, positioning is decidedly negative with $66.8 billion outflows from equity funds year-to-date.

Investors are hunting for yield, the strategists said, noting the ninth straight week of inflows to investment-grade bond funds - $6.6 billion this week - while high-yield bond funds drew in $3.2 billion and $1.2 billion went into EM debt.

The market is struggling to digest a rapid about-turn from the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rates as economic growth disappoints globally and fears of a deflationary environment return.

"Extraordinary abrupt end to central bank hiking cycle & Fed paranoia of credit event are uber-bullish credit & uber-bearish volatility," the strategists wrote.
---------

What is the credit event the Fed is paranoia of?

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I think it is disgusting anybody with a grudge with no evidence against you can call the police and you have no right to ask for evidence or question the person giving the complaint who can hide as a coward in the shadows.

Anyone can stage a swat against you - no consequences - no identification - no evidence.

The whole thing is absolutely disgusting.

NOTICE:
that the police show up at 5:17AM - Why then? Were they not attempting to create a conflict?

--------------

FERNDALE, Md. -- Two police officers ordered to remove firearms from a house on a "red flag" protective order fatally shot an armed man Monday morning in Ferndale, Maryland, police said. Anne Arundel County Police arrived at the house at 5:17 a.m. to remove guns from the home under a new law

Michele Willis, the man's niece, told The Baltimore Sun that one of her aunts requested the protective order against Willis, but she declined to say why.

Willis said her uncle "likes to speak his mind," but "wouldn't hurt anybody."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maryland-officers-serving-red-flag-gun-removal-order-fatally-shoot-armed-man/

Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer, one of HB 19-1177’s harshest critics, said "... think actually, this bill should have been titled: ‘The Extreme Order to Confiscate Your Firearms, Eliminate Due Process, and Violate your Constitutional Rights Bill.”

Weld County Sheriff Steve Reams:
“The bill is so riddled with constitutional problems that it makes it hard to understand how professional lawmakers could have constructed something so terrible,” Reams said, adding the bill, “raises some serious concerns about due process, in that a person can have their guns taken away and their rights violated, all without ever having a chance to appear in an initial court hearing and cross examine accusers and witnesses in person. In legal terms, this is an exparte hearing.” (source)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/sheriff-willing-go-jail-over-red-flag-gun-law-its-matter-doing-whats-right

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aquarian1 View Post
I think it is disgusting anybody with a grudge with no evidence against you can call the police and you have no right to ask for evidence or question the person giving the complaint who can hide as a coward in the shadows.

Anyone can stage a swat against you - no consequences - no identification - no evidence.

The whole thing is absolutely disgusting.

NOTICE:
that the police show up at 5:17AM - Why then? Were they not attempting to create a conflict?

--------------

FERNDALE, Md. -- Two police officers ordered to remove firearms from a house on a "red flag" protective order fatally shot an armed man Monday morning in Ferndale, Maryland, police said. Anne Arundel County Police arrived at the house at 5:17 a.m. to remove guns from the home under a new law

Michele Willis, the man's niece, told The Baltimore Sun that one of her aunts requested the protective order against Willis, but she declined to say why.

Willis said her uncle "likes to speak his mind," but "wouldn't hurt anybody."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maryland-officers-serving-red-flag-gun-removal-order-fatally-shoot-armed-man/

Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer, one of HB 19-1177’s harshest critics, said "... think actually, this bill should have been titled: ‘The Extreme Order to Confiscate Your Firearms, Eliminate Due Process, and Violate your Constitutional Rights Bill.”

Weld County Sheriff Steve Reams:
“The bill is so riddled with constitutional problems that it makes it hard to understand how professional lawmakers could have constructed something so terrible,” Reams said, adding the bill, “raises some serious concerns about due process, in that a person can have their guns taken away and their rights violated, all without ever having a chance to appear in an initial court hearing and cross examine accusers and witnesses in person. In legal terms, this is an exparte hearing.” (source)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/sheriff-willing-go-jail-over-red-flag-gun-law-its-matter-doing-whats-right

WOW! @aquarian1 this it crazy!...makes me sick even reading it! I am a total 2A supporter and American Patriot Combat Vet...it kills me to see articles like this...

thanks for sharing....

Johnny

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I think it is disgusting anybody with a grudge with no evidence against you can call the police and you have no right to ask for evidence or question the person giving the complaint who can hide as a coward in the shadows.

Anyone can stage a swat against you - no consequences - no identification - no evidence.

The whole thing is absolutely disgusting.

NOTICE:
that the police show up at 5:17AM - Why then? Were they not attempting to create a conflict?

--------------

FERNDALE, Md. -- Two police officers ordered to remove firearms from a house on a "red flag" protective order fatally shot an armed man Monday morning in Ferndale, Maryland, police said. Anne Arundel County Police arrived at the house at 5:17 a.m. to remove guns from the home under a new law

Michele Willis, the man's niece, told The Baltimore Sun that one of her aunts requested the protective order against Willis, but she declined to say why.

Willis said her uncle "likes to speak his mind," but "wouldn't hurt anybody."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maryland-officers-serving-red-flag-gun-removal-order-fatally-shoot-armed-man/

Commissioner Barbara Kirkmeyer, one of HB 19-1177’s harshest critics, said "... think actually, this bill should have been titled: ‘The Extreme Order to Confiscate Your Firearms, Eliminate Due Process, and Violate your Constitutional Rights Bill.”

Weld County Sheriff Steve Reams:
“The bill is so riddled with constitutional problems that it makes it hard to understand how professional lawmakers could have constructed something so terrible,” Reams said, adding the bill, “raises some serious concerns about due process, in that a person can have their guns taken away and their rights violated, all without ever having a chance to appear in an initial court hearing and cross examine accusers and witnesses in person. In legal terms, this is an exparte hearing.” (source)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/sheriff-willing-go-jail-over-red-flag-gun-law-its-matter-doing-whats-right

that is horrible, because some one likes to speak there mind they should have there guns removed? I'm all for taking guns away from people who are mentally unstable or have the motive to do bad but if this truly is due to one persons words about another then actions need to be taken against that person, this is going to turn into a huge issue. Whats going to happen when people find out you support the party opposite of them they could easily make something up and have the police come take your guns away.

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A few thoughts. I represent people in restraining orders a fair amount (we call them orders of protection). They are very easy to get, the initial or ex parte version can be ordered with no hearing or notice to the respondent. Certainly in some situations that’s good for the victims safety, but in others where there are phony allegations it can nearly ruin a persons life. The only way to know which one is it is to go to court and sort it out.

In Tennessee, the orders that are served on respondents simply say get rid of your guns. It’s kind of the honor system. I’m not aware of a law or a department policy somewhere which says they’re going to come and take your guns. Aside from the obvious constitutional concerns, from the perspective of law enforcement I can’t think of a more undesirable assignment. Just a disaster waiting to happen, and it did in this case.

Regarding the deceased individual in this story, assuming the facts reported in the link are true, he did just about everything wrong that you could do in this situation. I mean first of all, if the cops come to your house, for whatever reason, don’t answer the door with a gun in your hand. Really. That is just not cool. Then after you’ve put it down, DONT PICK IT BACK UP!

All in all though, this law seems like a bad idea.

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Hey Aquarian, Hope all is well. Thanks for posting this. This seems like such a violation of established American constitutional rights, that I can hardly stomach it!!! This can definitely open the door to many abuses of power.

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Regarding the deceased individual in this story, assuming the facts reported in the link are true, he did just about everything wrong that you could do in this situation.

I mean first of all, if the cops come to your house, for whatever reason, don’t answer the door with a gun in your hand. Really. That is just not cool.

All in all though, this law seems like a bad idea.

I think there is some mixed things here:

"I represent people in restraining orders a fair amount (we call them orders of protection."

This is not what was done here. It is not that someone feared for there life and an emergency situation existed requiring the immediate action - then it would be a different court order and the investigation officer is required (if they do their job properly to conduct a reasonably thorough investigation - talking to others to corroborate the claimants story etc and unless it is an emergency situation the person against whom the complaint is made.) Then with the officer's evidence the judge decides if an order is warranted. Now it the claimant is making a false complaint then they can and should be charged with public mischief.

However, none of this applies here.

Though there is no requirement on the police to be reasonable and respectful, conversely there is no responsibility on the police department to act irresponsibility. There is no requirement to create an early dawn raid, waking an elderly man from his sleep. When a person is woken up at 5:17am they have not had there morning coffee etc.

Who the HELL comes banging on your door at 5:17am?
You are going to be pissed off.
You are going to be in a bad mood.
You are going to be irate.

Perhaps it's is someone casing your home to break-in if your not home.
Perhaps its a home invader. You open up the door and thugs (or druggies) push in and beat you to death. An addict can do crazy things. How do you know who is there?

You would be a fool to not be concerned and not have some protection against some yahoo banging on your door at 5am.

So the police DELIBERTY AND UNNECESSARILY created a conflict situation. They are trained in defusing a conflict and tension -- not creating it.

The man initially put is handgun down. Certainly the officers showed lack of lack politeness and judgement to take that and end up killing the man in his own home.


So here's a question:
How many police officers at their home, when roused at 5:17am would answer their door without their handgun in case its a nut-bar on the other side?

You have the right to protect yourself - don't know who is on the other side of the door.

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"Then after you’ve put it down, DONT PICK IT BACK UP! "

well of course - but just think how poorly the police must have proceeded.

I'm sure it didn't go:

"Mr Wilis thank-you for putting the gun down.
There is a new law where another person can request your guns be removed for their or your safety.

The reason we are here is that an order was issued to take your guns under this new law.
It is just temporary and you will have a date to come to court present your case and get them back.

I am sorry about this but it is a court order we are required to enforce.

--- At 5:17am?

No, you're right about that. My Sargent sent me here at this time. My apologies for disturbing you.
This is all new but you should have a court date set for about 10 days from now.

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After a lot of digging I couldn't really come-up with what I was looking for.

So the idea of having an initial string of loser followed by a string of winners (say 4 and 4)- it takes a bigger percentage return to get back to even.

I made a spreadsheet which generates 1000 trades/bets on each calc and gives one a summary line.
(available to anyone who asks me for it)


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Saw this on the internet a couple of years ago. Thanks to whom ever put it together.

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@Trailer Guy

Many thanks!. Yes I also saw this at the beginning of my research. It is interesting and their is a free spreadsheet for it.

For myself that was step1.

Lets say you use 60% and see that 6 consecutive is 16.9%. (in 50 trades). -ok in 50 trades is way too small iMO, however, was is the odds of getting a break of let's say 4 wins and then get ANOTHER losing streak of 6?

That's why I made 1000 trades and then had the spreadsheet do a recalc each time I hit a Cntl J - to run the keystroke macro. It does another 1000 trades and gives me another summary line.

From this Monte Carlo type simulation I can see where the losing streaks come in the 1000 trades and how long they are.

The second thing is what happens when I increase my contracts once my account balance increases by a certain amount (eg $5,000)? How does that effect the growth versus the risk of ruin?

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micro emini

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I worked a bit with my Monte Carlo calculator.

To move the risk of ruin to zero and I think I will need to get
2:1 W:L ratio
and
2:1 R:R ratio


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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hidqABq4Yc

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"[W]hen it is time for us to sell, or even to stop buying, the response could be quite strong; there is every reason to expect a strong response. So there are a couple of ways to look at it. It is about $1.2 trillion in sales; you take 60 months, you get about $20 billion a month. That is a very doable thing, it sounds like, in a market where the norm by the middle of next year is $80 billion a month. Another way to look at it, though, is that it’s not so much the sale, the duration; it’s also unloading our short volatility position."

source:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-28/head-plunge-protection-team-quitting

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add your symbol to the end

e.g KO
'http://aheadsup.com/twitter/newsentiment.html?user=usequities&symbol=KO'

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10:14 AM 7/5/2019

Sell above line is
2981.25

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notes form bettersystemtrader.com podcast 8

Gary Stone, Sharewellsystems.com ()- fav quotes

listen contains the same letters as silent

opportunities seem clearer to me not that I am not scared of the outcome.
-Micheal rogers an Australian cyclist made after 10 years of trying he won the stage at Tour du France

lock happens when preparedness equals opportunity
-Confucius

--------------------

Trading the financial markets is one of the biggest mental challenges anyone can take on, and I see it at one of the best medium for growth that anyone can take on. Success in this will rub off in every phases of your life.
-Gary Stone

Big picture perspective helps me execute on a daily basis
-Gary Stone

------- my thoughts -----
Big picture perspective helps me manage on a daily basis = what I first wrote before checking. The implication for me of my mis-type is that the holistic perspective of my life - the "big picture perspective" - is crucial to managing/coping with the emotional whirlwinds that buffet one each day. "This" to shall pass come to mind.

Is our life about the mini-dramas? I say no.

In that I mean that the dramas are not important BUT our reaction to them.

Indeed, the dig picture perspective keys us to the reality that our growth (spiritual growth) is not dependent upon events but our reaction to them. So then the big picture guides us and helps view daily events within lifetime perspective.

As daily events lose impact (or immediacy) when view in the long-term, we start to relax into the "process" of life (or depending upon your belief "lives")

"I have been a king I have been a pauper. I have been a slave and a slave master. This (the current event) is not important."
Robert Neils

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Each of the 12 Reserve Banks serves its region of the country, and all but three have other offices within their Districts to help provide services to depository institutions and the public. The Banks are named after the locations of their headquarters - Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.
..
All member banks hold stock in Reserve Banks and receive dividends. Unlike stockholders in a public company, banks cannot sell or trade their Fed stock. Reserve Banks interact directly with banks in their Districts through examinations and financial services and bring important regional perspectives that help the entire Federal Reserve System do its job more effectively.

Member Banks

Approximately 38 percent of the 8,039 commercial banks in the United States are members of the Federal Reserve System. National banks must be members; state-chartered banks may join if they meet certain requirements. The member banks are stockholders of the Reserve Bank in their District and as such, are required to hold 3 percent of their capital as stock in their Reserve Banks.

https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/structure-and-functions

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1:30 PM 8/22/2019

Breaking 2890 will give a fall to 2810
and that fall could lead to much lower.


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1:30 PM 8/22/2019

Breaking 2890 will give a fall to 2810
and that fall could lead to much lower.

10:47 AM 8/23/2019

As shown yesterday "breaking 2890.50 gives 2810" and is now unfolding. Next time tells you chart reading is hooey, recall this. The chart tells BEFORE the news.

Random walk HYPOTHESIS (note the caps hypothesis is a theory to be tested - and only excepted to possibility be true IF all assumptions are met), has been shown to be a fantasy. It may not have needed it but Jack Schwagger debunks this fantasy in Market Sense and Nonsense.


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11:56 AM 8/27/2019


@kareem40 @Rrrracer
On 8/22 I showed the chart said that it would fall to 2810.

see:

aquarian1 View Post
1:30 PM 8/22/2019
Breaking 2890 will give a fall to 2810
and that fall could lead to much lower.

Source:https://futures.io/trading-journals/7984-trading-96.html#post736688%20

This is exactly what happened.
LOW=2810.25

Chart reading works IF you have mastered it.


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Nice call @aquarian1. I do agree, and my thinking is with no major news/Trump all we have is PA ( and VSA for me), with news/fear, most of the technicals are out of the window. I think a trader should be ready for both.

But great call and I hope you were able to take advantage.

K

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a chart to explain

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Trying to guess the break of FOMC - I say down.
H/L est
3011.25
2973.00


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10:36 AM 9/18/2019
For the swing traders:


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aquarian1 View Post
Trying to guess the break of FOMC - I say down.
H/L est
3011.25
2973.00

High Est 3011.25
Actual High 3012.25
Dif= -1.00

Low Est 2973.00
Actual Low 2980.75
Dif= -7.75

So the market went down first and then up. The up leg was bigger so the"dir" was +1.
I do not have a place in the model for two directions for the day. So fpr today I would need a place for first dir1 and then dir2. In any case the model only is for the larger of the two.

Today the model was correct the dir was +1.
(in any case I didn't capture that as when it fell and not bounce I felt it would fall further after a bounce. However, I didn't know that Trump tweeted his displeasure and that Powell later came out with an announcement of more QE - not part of the FOMC notes.

I don't recall this happening before

Dir 1

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH5QzuzD01A

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Looks great 2:30 in....no time now but totally looking forward to it.... Thanks a ton. Not sure why I haven't sprung for Real Vision yet???? Shame on me.

Ron

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drop started at 11:35

ZH at Fri, 09/27/2019 - 11:40

In what appears to dismiss President Trump's claims that a deal is a lot closer than you think, Bloomberg reports that the White House is said to support a review of investment limits for China.

Among the options the Trump administration is considering:

delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and

limiting Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market through government pension fund

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apmAE0cfEPY

'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apmAE0cfEPY

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eDY-x6FRFY
'https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eDY-x6FRFY


getting money out

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11:32 AM 10/7/2019

So here's a piece of Cod-swallop (see article below).
Notice
1. “robust, dynamic ‘ecosystem’ (great tell - ecosystem ???? PR BS)
1B "made up of many players.” - of yes and what percentage do these "many players hold? 5%?? - no numbers big tell...

2. It’s also made up of what are known as “authorized participants” and “market makers.” (soon to vanish at the first sign of trouble

3. dynamically” manage the creation and redemption of ETF shares (well of course they HAVE TO - "dynamically??" "rhythmically?" "in sophisticated nuance?" - I too can sling it...:-)

I think she doth protest too much..
or
"relax folks - nothing to see here.."

------------------------



As the universe of exchange-traded funds in general, and passively-managed ETFs in particular, has exploded, so have worries about market contagion. If investors panic-sell all at once, the concern goes, the massive concentrations of securities within certain funds could make markets seize up.

New research from iShares, the ETF arm of BlackRock Inc., BLK, -0.68% attempts to lay that fear to rest. The vast majority of trading happens between investors, on what’s called “the secondary market,” meaning the broader financial marketplace is not impacted.

The ETF industry is supported by what iShares calls a “robust, dynamic ‘ecosystem’ made up of many players.” One of the primary innovations that distinguish ETFs from mutual funds is the fact that they are traded between investors on an exchange, as opposed to mutual funds, which are purchased or redeemed from the fund manager.

But, as iShares makes clear, that “ecosystem” doesn’t just include buyers and sellers. It’s also made up of what are known as “authorized participants” and “market makers.”

Those entities are large financial institutions that work directly with an ETF provider to “dynamically” manage the creation and redemption of ETF shares. Authorized participants are usually banks, like Goldman Sachs GS, +0.30% or Citigroup C, +0.32%, that have agreements with ETF sponsors to engage in this activity. Market makers are broker-dealers that provide the same kind of liquidity, by buying and selling shares of a fund with investors. Market makers include some less-familiar companies like Jane Street and Virtu Financial.

iShares’ new research draws on filings that fund companies make every year to the Securities and Exchange Commission to determine just how robust the authorized participant and market maker universe is.

Sourcehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-etfs-cant-bring-down-the-financial-system-ishares-says-2019-10-07?siteid=rss&rss=1

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10:39 AM 10/29/2019

Well, ddn't play it well today.
Doorbell rang at opening and I should have stood asde -- no trading
But being me.. forced it.

I have this conviction that we are ready for a big drop.

Of course, I should wait til FOMC Wednesday to trade that.

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2:43 PM 12/25/2019

The aggregate funded ratio for firefighter and police retirement systems outside of Chicago fell to 55.47% in 2017 from 57.58% in the prior year, according to a July report from the Illinois Legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.
Unfunded liabilities rose by $1 billion to $11 billion.

Bear in mind after the biggest bull market in history, the average municipal funding ratio outside of Chicago is 55.47%.

Some plans are 30% funded.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/illinois-pension-plans-dumps-1-billion-in-value-stocks-to-self-manage-Ydf3PBO7jUmJcke48QDnNw
-
In fiscal year 2019, state estimates of Illinois’ total unfunded pension liability rose to $137 billion from $131 billion, despite paying more than $10 billion to the funds – the largest annual contribution in state history.

State taxpayers can expect to pay more for pensions in fiscal year 2020 with projected contributions set to reach nearly $11 billion, according to the reports. The share of the state budget devoted to pension costs will then be 27%, up from 25% in fiscal year 2019.

Pension experts consider a funding ratio of less than 60% to be “deeply troubled,” while a 40% funding ratio may be a “point of no return,” meaning an inability to make required contributions or maintain adequate funding levels – without painful cuts or serious structural reforms.

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/report-illinois-pension-debt-soars-to-137b-despite-record-taxpayer-contributions/

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THE FACTS OF THE REPO CRISIS, SUMMARIZED:
1) The repo crisis was the result of a liquidity shortfall at the "Top 4" banks, precipitated by JPMorgan's drain of over $100BN in repo market liquidity (a wise move, which eventually forced the Fed to launch QE4, and helped JPM report its most profitable year on record)
2) The Fed addressed the "supply side" of the Sept repo crisis by injecting over $400BN in liquidity to replenish bank reserve levels, first via repo and then via T-Bill POMO, i.e., QE4.
3) The Fed has yet to address the "demand side" of the Sept repo crisis, namely the market transmission mechanism which is intermediated by hedge funds. And it is here that, as the WSJ reported, the Fed is currently contemplating providing liquidity directly to hedge funds to prevent a systemic collapse during the next repo crisis, whenever it may strike.

"Fed officials are considering a new tool to ease repo market stress: namely bypassing the existing system entirely, and lending cash directly to smaller banks, securities dealers and hedge funds through the repo market’s clearinghouse, the Fixed Income Clearing Corp., or FICC."

"And so we once again get to the real issue at hand, namely the bailout of those hedge funds which even the BIS said were on the verge of failure had the repo market not been unfrozen - and which the Fed was all too aware of - and had the massive leverage that some hedge funds operate under collapsed, forcing an unprecedented liquidation cascade."


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/944-trillion-reasons-why-fed-quietly-bailing-out-hedge-funds

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Recession - Collapse

Japanese Regional Banks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSm9BTpSMRo

China currency devaluation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ssFICVFH40

Corporate Bonds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds_SG__COP4

China currency crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBl05xNq_AU

Italian Banks

US corporate Debt

Pension Funds low return and funding shortfall


comng Global recession
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lscn0TrXoyE


https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBH5VZE_Y4F3CMcPIzPEB5A/playlists

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2-78gs9nRfM-L5sdsAfD7O7iGr6-xNSt

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(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures followed Asian and European markets lower on Tuesday as worries about the fallout from a deadly virus outbreak in China and a gloomy growth outlook from the IMF looked set to stall a record rally on Wall Street.

Officials confirmed the new coronavirus outbreak took six lives and that it could spread between humans, stoking fears of a global pandemic and reviving memories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) - another coronavirus that killed nearly 800 people in 2002-03.

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"The blue line in the chart below shows the actual number of reported coronavirus cases stands at 4,515 as of January 27.

The orange line is a simple progression that assumes a 53% increase in the cases every day. Or, one person infects 2 to 2.5 people.

As the orange line shows, this type of growth rate would suggest 80,000+ infections next Monday and 138 million by February 20.

If this track is not altered, the number of reported cases will top 16,000 by Friday."
cliippins from:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-geometric-progression-suggests-100000-infections-week

--------
as this is Wednesday simple to track = let's check against progression -let's check on Friday if 16,000 or so....


The ES closed the gap on Tuesday RTH and onw Wed (today) o.n pushed above that to take out stops.
FOMC is upcoming..

Perhaps "pop and drop?"
PH signal dnies this and gives ...
"up, p and away,
"in my beautiful,
my beautiful,
baloooon."

(some song lyrics ;-)

Regardless, today's HOD is IT!!
Down we go....

11:03 AM 1/29/2020

GLTA :-)

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Stealth aspect is key
11:15 AM 1/29/2020

"
So what is the coronavirus, and is the media concern surrounding it justified? A coronavirus is a type of normally mild virus that causes non-lethal respiratory viruses, but sometimes can be lethal, as has been the case with the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China. The particular trait that makes coronavirus especially sinister, however, is that, unlike its previous siblings of SARS and MERS, the Wuhan coronavirus is contagious during its asymptomatic incubation period of one to fourteen days, and therefore, can be transmitted from carriers that appear to be healthy although they already have been infected. Consequently, because its method of transmission is so stealth, it is truly difficult to assess how many people have been infected, even though media reports put the number at 2,000 to 4,000 with 100 dead thus far. "


source:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-01-28/will-coronavirus-be-black-swan-pops-bubble-everything-2020

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Zero Hedge has laid out a case for this virus being an escapee from the lab. I think the case is reasonable. The people running the lab were escorted out of Canada for stealing the Saudi corona virus several years ago.

Part of their thesis rests on incompetent graduate assistants screwing up. Well we have a former bio research post doc in the family. A person who has been published in several leading bio research magazines ( Cell, Nature etc.). They have worked in several university research labs and because their specialty is used by wet labs they have collaborated with many more. Sloppy procedures and taking shortcuts knows no boundaries. Given the articles in the past documenting the cheating in China to get into Doctoral programs and the published criticisms of this lab in the past (and the SARS jailbreak in Beijing) I am just saying in my uneducated opinion the jail break theory is possible. If it is the truth and thousands die because of sloppy procedures what government would not cover it up. Given the Asian need to save face just adds to the desire to cover up a deeply shameful event.

Tonight The Lancet is estimating the true death rate at 10%. Given the R0 and that death rate this thing could easily make the Spanish Influenza look like a walk in the park.

Remember what happened to Japanese supply chains after the big earthquake? Well I do think we are about to find outhow dependent we are on Chinese parts.

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I thought this was good

source:
https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/adm-canary-in-a-micro-chip-jan-29.jpg


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last night (in o/n) session we had a drop of
-37.75

After WHO Director Dr. Tedros didn't say the words 'global emergency' in the first two minutes of the WHO's Thursday press conference, stocks jumped, but were quickly stymied when he finally got around to the announce after a lengthy preamble: The WHO has officially declared the coronavirus a ' Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).'

ZH

After this they rocketed upward to the 3292 area. Hard to see why expect US govt market manipulation.

They are "all-in" in the rigged casino.


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Doh!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLlv-qTiuLE


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2. Application of Price Limits from Start of Trading Day to 8:30 a.m. From the start of any Trading Day until 8:30 a.m., there shall be no trading in any futures contract for a given delivery month at any price that is either strictly lower than or strictly higher than the range defined by the 5% Price Limits (Rule 35802.I.1.) applicable to such futures contract on such Trading Day.

Without limitation to the foregoing, the start of any Trading Day generally shall coincide with the start of the CME Globex trading session at 5:00 p.m. on the evening first preceding such Trading Day. If the Primary Futures contract Month is limit bid or limit offered at 8:23 a.m. and remains limit bid or limit offered at 8:25 a.m., then futures trading shall halt and remain halted until 8:30 a.m. Prior to reopening of Globex trading in futures at 8:30 a.m., the Exchange shall provide indicative opening prices in accord with Rule 573

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CME/IV/350/358/358.pdf

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Some of those major closures according to the New York Stock Exchange's website:

1865 — The exchange closed for over a week after the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln.

1873 — Following the failure of Philadelphia bank Jay Cooke & Company on September 19 the stock exchange closed for ten days amid national financial panic.

1914 — World War I lead to the longest closure of the exchange beginning on July 31. It did not open entirely for over four and a half months.

1933 — The exchange closed for President Franklin Roosevelt's bank holiday.

1945 — Markets closed on August 15 & 16 for VJ day, marking the end of World War II.

1963 — The exchange closed early on November 22 after the assassination of President Kennedy.

1985 — This marks the last time the NYSE closed for weather as Hurricane Gloria slammed into the eastern seaboard.

2001 — Markets closed for four days following the September 11 terrorist attacks.

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/does-close-stock-market-145507525.html

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@bigmike

virustotal reports a malicious virus at threadloom,com


https://www.virustotal.com/gui/url/f7ac4a7b3b26a970910d2e5015dd621f542093a27314a96a4609e4b525296fec/detection

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I don't see why it is flagged though
aquarian1 View Post

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I can't explain what virus total does it is one of the javscipts at the site - just thought you might like to know
the tech stuff is beyond me.


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killed my sell market at open - argh.
should have left it

did get one (MES) in but 2190
now locked limit down in o/n


the timid don't succeed in this wild ride....

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Support for critical market functioning. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.

The FOMC had previously announced it would purchase at least $500 billion of Treasury securities and at least $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the FOMC will include purchases of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in its agency mortgage-backed security purchases.

Supporting the flow of credit to employers, consumers, and businesses by establishing new programs that, taken together, will provide up to $300 billion in new financing. The Department of the Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), will provide $30 billion in equity to these facilities.

Establishment of two facilities to support credit to large employers – the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) for new bond and loan issuance and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) to provide liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds.

Establishment of a third facility, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), to support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses. The TALF will enable the issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA), and certain other assets.

Facilitating the flow of credit to municipalities by expanding the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) to include a wider range of securities, including municipal variable rate demand notes (VRDNs) and bank certificates of deposit.

Facilitating the flow of credit to municipalities by expanding the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) to include high-quality, tax-exempt commercial paper as eligible securities. In addition, the pricing of the facility has been reduced.

In addition to the steps above, the Federal Reserve expects to announce soon the establishment of a Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses, complementing efforts by the SBA.

The PMCCF will allow companies access to credit so that they are better able to maintain business operations and capacity during the period of dislocations related to the pandemic. This facility is open to investment grade companies and will provide bridge financing of four years. Borrowers may elect to defer interest and principal payments during the first six months of the loan, extendable at the Federal Reserve's discretion, in order to have additional cash on hand that can be used to pay employees and suppliers. The Federal Reserve will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to make loans from the PMCCF to companies. The Treasury, using the ESF, will make an equity investment in the SPV.

The SMCCF will purchase in the secondary market corporate bonds issued by investment grade U.S. companies and U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. investment grade corporate bonds. Treasury, using the ESF, will make an equity investment in the SPV established by the Federal Reserve for this facility.

Under the TALF, the Federal Reserve will lend on a non-recourse basis to holders of certain AAA-rated ABS backed by newly and recently originated consumer and small business loans. The Federal Reserve will lend an amount equal to the market value of the ABS less a haircut and will be secured at all times by the ABS. Treasury, using the ESF, will also make an equity investment in the SPV established by the Federal Reserve for this facility. The TALF, PMCCF and SMCCF are established by the Federal Reserve under the authority of Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary.

These actions augment the measures taken by the Federal Reserve over the past week to support the flow of credit to households and businesses. These include:

The establishment of the CPFF, the MMLF, and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility;

The expansion of central bank liquidity swap lines;

Steps to enhance the availability and ease terms for borrowing at the discount window;

The elimination of reserve requirements;

Guidance encouraging banks to be flexible with customers experiencing financial challenges related to the coronavirus and to utilize their liquidity and capital buffers in doing so;

Statements encouraging the use of daylight credit at the Federal Reserve.

Taken together, these actions will provide support to a wide range of markets and institutions, thereby supporting the flow of credit in the economy.

The Federal Reserve will continue to use it full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.

* * *

So it seems The Fed's "infinite" balance sheet is being put to use,
---------
Yellen:

"Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will."

While some were quick to compare this statement by Yellen (who then was 70--ears old) to Neville Chamberlain infamous - and very, very wrong - 1938 prediction of "peace in our time", perhaps she was hiding a trump card all along... A trump card which she revealed only now, almost three years later.

Speaking via video conference with bankers in Kansas City, Yellen said that the Fed would take a page out of the SNB and BOJ playbook, and "might be able to help the U.S. economy in a future downturn if it could buy stocks and corporate bonds." Of course, by "US economy" she meant the "top 1%" and their political cronies.
-------
source: ZH

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A lengthy investigative report in Reuters found that the White House ordered the elimination of a key American Center for Disease Control (CDC) position in Beijing intended to monitor and study disease outbreaks in China.

The American disease expert, a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency, left her post in July.

Dr. Linda Quick, part of whose job involved training the very Chinese field epidemiologists later deployed to virus hot zones in Wuhan and elsewhere across the country. She would have been the US "eyes and ears" on the ground had she been allowed to stay.

“If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster,” a prior top CDC expert who had occupied the now nixed position prior to 2012, Bao-Ping Zhu, told Reuters.

The post and the program, which was called U.S. Field Epidemiology Training Program in China, was officially defunded in September, while unexplained clusters of pneumonia later linked to the Covid-19 outbreak begain popping up in Wuhan province on Dec. 31.

source: ZH
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/white-house-axed-cdcs-eyes-ears-ground-china-months-outbrea

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looks like fun




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3209 is an important level in ES.

It was broken with stop-running intraday with 3198 and then upto 3296.25 Friday 25 Sep 2020

I think we'll go back down below 3209 and break it (unless money printing news released).

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My summary:
Cantillion observed that those close to money printing receive the benefit and those removed from it see purchasing power destruction without income increase.

In short the working clas and poor have to pay more for the things they need and receive no extra income. The rich & rich bankers get richer without doing anything and get more free money to speculate and increase their wealth in asset/stock increases.

Richard Cantillion prospered in speculation in the Missippi Bubble (John Law's creation) by buying shares cheaply and then selling them higher. He knew it was a worthless bubble all the while.
== end of my summary ===
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Cantillon
Notes follow:


Same with money: in case of a monetary expansion, the ones who profit from it are the ones who are close to the money. “Close to the money” in this case means everyone who can access the money right at the beginning, i.e. big companies, banks, etc. They get loans and make investments. Prices then start to rise even though the rest of the population has not received any of the new money yet. This part of the population usually is not the one with too much money. Nonetheless, they have to pay the higher prices even though they have not profited from the increase in money at all. And they will never profit from it in the same way as the ones who received the money first. The result is a redistribution from the poor to the rich.

https://www.austriancenter.com/cantillon-effect-populism/

"The first to receive the newly created money see incomes rise."
"the last ones to receive the newly created money see declining purchasing power."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv5xl1AEeQs

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcEj4XkLn5w

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The situation with SolarWinds software enabled hackers to gain access to the U.S. Commerce Department and, reportedly, the Treasury Department.

This means the US SolarWinds product is 💯 compromised across the USG. Likely China w/ back doors to every dept, agency & activity in the USG.

According to FireEye, a cybersecurity firm, the hackers inserted malicious code into legitimate software updates for the SolarWinds Orion software. The code enabled an attacker to gain remote access to the victim’s systems.

The malware was designed in a way to not alert the victim to the intrusion, and attackers went to significant lengths to blend into normal activity.

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SLV (silver etf)

While it is unclear while in the consolidation range, a possible a breakdown is shown.




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ABX American Barrick is looking weak with $26.69 next target



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Here is GLD to ABX



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Gld to SLV
GLD is weaker




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