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Johnny's Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
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For my first post here (been lurking, learning, applying for a bit now), I would like to start my trading journal. I have been trading for almost a decade in the stock market. I learned about trading while serving in the Marines and the discipline has served me well. In 2008 I became an investment advisor and promptly squandered my savings and having to them rely on my g/f (now wife) for support until I quit that and got a regular job making decent money and getting us out of debt. As such, my accounts were decimated, but I love the market. In late November, I found the emini's (ES) and have been saving for starting live, hopefully come late January, early February. Zen and the small trade account thread has provided some great info and I'll continue to read it.

In December I was defining my rules, making mistakes and seeing where I was failing and where my success was and what precipitated my profits and how best to recognize them.

In December, none of my shorts were profitable and half my longs were. Trying different indicators, making mistakes, and just general unfamiliarity was the key. By late December, my rules are more defined and while my shorts were still negative, I was profitable.

Over the holiday weekend, I finally defined (and wrote down) my entry/exit points with a ZLEMA, volume indicator, ease of movement, bollinger bands, and S1/2,R1/2. In review of many people's comments who do trade the ES, my target is not the 4 point move, but the 4 tick move and capitalizing on that, buying the bid when I can and selling the ask if possible. On January 4th I started back in the esh1 and thus far, here are my results. Please remember I do this in addition to my job and cannot always watch the markets but do what I can when I can.

1/4/11
Net profit: .75 long. No shorts made
Gross profit: 2.5
Gross loss: 1.75

1/5/11
Net profit: 1.5 long. No shorts made.
Gross profit: 3.25
Gross loss: 1.75

I'm feel confident of my rules and the PnL reversal has shown the effectiveness. I'm not out to break the bank every day. My goal is to acquire 1-2 points a day.

Today I took a trade and rode it too far, trying to get a multi-point move when it reversed on me, instead of taking what it gave me and ensuring a 1 point gain. I have applied my trading rules on my shorts and have garnered thus far a 1.25 point gain. Still negative from my trade that I let run into the red and am still down a quarter point on the day. I have no doubts I'll be able to pull that out in the next few hours, potentially with at least another point and a half.

I am missing the morning moves, however, with me not getting into the office until almost 10am Central time. Once I adjust that, getting in around 8:30am, I feel I will be able to capitalize much more on the time in the market I have been missing

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 Big Mike 
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on starting a journal.

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 redratsal 
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Hi Johnnycakes78704,

Look forward to read about your journal

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  #5 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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I think NT7 just error-ed out on me. Anyone else had a problem with NT7 showing the incorrect results of trades?

I rode this recent ES move up and pulled out a healthy 1.25 point gain, closing it out to ensure a profit. I'm making too many trading and not letting the runners run, but my focus now is small gains.

Bought at 1268.75, sold at 1269.25
Bought at 1269.25, sold at 1269.50
Bought at 1270, sold at 1270.50

My daily report now shows 6 shorts (when I only made 4), 2 long trades, when I made 4, and a loss instead of profit. Interesting....

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 redratsal 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
I think NT7 just error-ed out on me. Anyone else had a problem with NT7 showing the incorrect results of trades?

I rode this recent ES move up and pulled out a healthy 1.25 point gain, closing it out to ensure a profit. I'm making too many trading and not letting the runners run, but my focus now is small gains.

Bought at 1268.75, sold at 1269.25
Bought at 1269.25, sold at 1269.50
Bought at 1270, sold at 1270.50

My daily report now shows 6 shorts (when I only made 4), 2 long trades, when I made 4, and a loss instead of profit. Interesting....

Some charts would help understand better.

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  #7 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Charts/graphs coming soon. Need to hit the 5 posts to apply them. Next one should have them.

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  #8 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Done today with a gain of a quarter point on the last trade. Late churning prevented the run-up....I think. The indicators I use were showing the same trend as a previous one today which had a 2-3 point run, but this one was limited in its gain.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Here is the chart showing the trades

Nt7.jpg - ImageHost.org



and here is the graphic showing the trades made today. As you can see, there is a discrepancy....
nt7-2.jpg - ImageHost.org

And here is my initial short.

(tried fixing the coding, didn't work )

Bottom line though, the indicators and strategy worked, as with the errors taken out I had a 4 point gain today with all the losses accounted for.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Here is the chart showing the trades


Hey Johnnycakes,

Thanks for sharing!

Some advice on sharing the images. Just hit print screen after you have your trades marked up. Then just crop and upload on any post using the (while writing a post) paperclip above which is next to the smiley face.

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 Big Mike 
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Most of your pics are not working. It is much better to simply attach pictures to the post instead of using a third party photo sharing website and embedding links. You also do not need 5 posts to do this.

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 vegasfoster 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
I think NT7 just error-ed out on me. Anyone else had a problem with NT7 showing the incorrect results of trades?

FYI, NT performance reporting is total crap, as in completely unreliable and frequently erroneous. The totals may be correct on the current day, but the other stats are frequently wrong and the longer the period of time the worse it gets due to the accumulation of errors. If you look at the the two pics, the only difference between the two is that I checked and unchecked the "Group Trades by ATM Strategy". You will need to maintain a separate trade log and calculate your own stats. Good luck to you on your journey!

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Mike and Vegas, thank you for the info.

Reviewed my ins/outs yesterday, made sure I followed my rules today. I think my trading style works best on the 2min chart. Not as busy as the 1min chart but allows me to see the trend that fits my trading style. Still, my biggest 1 trade gain thus far at 1.5 points.

The first attached file shows my first trade of the day. Short at 1270.25 and cover at 1268.75.

Looking at the trend, the reversal is there but then the trend continues for an additional 1 point trading gain. Should I have allowed the reversal (I'm assuming this is the scalpers getting their fill of the trade) and stayed in the trade for an additional point gain, closing out around 1267? Probably. Looking at the volume in comparison, it is very low, not indicating a breakout of the trend.

The second chart shows the (true) trend breaker.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Following the defined rules, it would have been possible to eek out a gain of an additional point even if I re-entered the trade, but I follow the ZLEMA's tracking of the upper or lower Bollinger bands, getting into a trade when it crosses the mid-point of the bands. Looking at the chart, it would have been possible to stay in for another 1 point gain, but where the zlema (green) moves away from the lower band, I would have stopped out the trade there at the blue price indicator (pro churning). I'm not a shoulda, woulda, coulda guy. I'm happy with what I've learned thus far AND in its application.

Edit: Personally, I'm kicking myself as the downward trend continued to 1262-ish.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Following the indicators....stopped out 3 times due to severe reversals. My stop is 1.5 points. Not pleased....

Looking at where I went wrong...and it seems I tried to get back into the shorts twice, which backfired on me even though the trade was accurate according the indicators. Went long, stopped out by reversal. Trade coming back up, rehit indicators, took trade again but more cautiously. Considering taking small .50 -.75 gains.

Stopped out again for another 1.5pt loss.

Took a breather and came back. Watched 1,2,3,5,10 minute charts to verify the trend and indicators were working. Came in late as I didn't want to get bit again but let it run for a 2 point gain. Could have had .5 more but wanted to see if it would get to 3. After stop, mkt dropped .75 or a whole point. Glad I got out.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Week in Review:

Following the rules set into place works, at least have this week. Profit was achieved when the rules were followed. Care needs to be taken to not balk when a small reversal happens when the reversal volume stays low as this will further profitability. Is it worthwhile to sell at reversal, let small gain happen only to short it again to eek out maximum profit? I think not. That is what bit me today, 3 times today. Practice letting the winners run. As always, let the rules make the trade, not the ego. My ego has never paid the bills, instead, just wrote checks my body won't cash. And today...seeing the big points move, my ego wanted in on it.

Remember, there is no breaking the bank....there is no bank.

Acquired trading log external to NT7, will use that to document in/out, short/long, pnl, etc.

My goal is small consistent profits every day. As the understanding, experience, accumulation, and education increases, the amount of contracts will increase.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Stopped out twice on trades that met my criteria. Started LATE today, unable to make trades on morning move, didn't start trading till about 11am CST.

Reviewed trades, both were headed in right direction and were thought to be good trades.

3rd trade has finally gone profitable. Need 3.25 points to recover losses. Should I hold to let profits run or take the .25 to .50 scalp multiple times today? I think that might be a better idea than trying to let the market run up 3-4 points.

Volume is dying off....

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Trading range appears to be narrow, around 1-2 points. Shorted when indicated, gained a point back. Saw churning, closed position. Bought again on indicators, gained .25 points and closed position. Trading range is now three quarters of a point, looking for a breakout either way. Ease of movement is hovering at -.04 on 1 min chart and +.03 on 2 min chart.

Edit: Bollinger band full range at 2:21pm is 0.72 points

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Massively frustrated. Was able to get small move points and then stopped out on a regular basis today. Total points lost were 8.25. Big moves in short trading ranges when I followed the trend created the losses.

Total points gained were 2.5. 13 trades today, only 37% of longs were profitable and 40% of shorts were profitable. Average winning trade was .5 points, average losing trade was just over 1 point.

Starting the day earlier will mean the difference between success and failure. While I was watching the market for a bit before I entered a trade, catching up on points loss after stoploss is very difficult. Definitely looking forward to tomorrow.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Breaking about even today. Sticking to my rules. Need to think seriously about trailing stop limit. Had a trade that went 10 ticks positive then went to 4 ticks positive where I closed it out, and it then continued the reversal. Less trades, less trades, less trades. This will result in more profitable trades. 1-2 points per day POSITIVE is the goal.

As of now, at 1:41pm CST, I am 0.25 ticks down with one long contract. Closed it out at a .75 point loss. Bollinger Band has a range of less than 1 point. Watching a breakout to the low otw. Time to short?

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Tomorrow, my goal shall be 1 long trade and 1 short trade. Regardless of pnl, one trade each way. Will be employing K.I.S.S. with what I've got now and will see what I can do. Remember, there is no bank and 1-2 points per day AVERAGE is better than 95% of traders out there.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Stuck with my goal of 1 long and 1 short trade. Trading day started at 10:45am so I missed the majority of opportunity. I am almost certain that once I am available for the pre-market review, or even 2am-open hours, my positive trades will increase. I'm just about kicking myself, but the reason is out of my hands for the moment.

Back to the present:
2 trades today, 2.5 point gain.
Short today at 1280.25, closed out at 1279.75. Held trade to 1 point gain, small reversal, didn't see recovery to downward trend again and closed out.

Long today at 1281, closed out at 1283. Small reversal, held through that. Lots of churning on market but kept upward trend. Held trade till volume dried up, called uncle. Missed out on .5 point gain, but I'm not complaining.

I did employ trailing stops and automatic closing strategy. I'm not sure this is the time for me to employ them just yet so they were closed out. Ensuring the strategy is good and ending the day/week/month positive is most important. Now is still the time that the strategy is in development and the p outweighs the l.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Another day, another 2 trades. Arrived in earlier today, around 9:30. Trading flat pretty much already by then. Reviewed my in's/outs and rules, am pleased with them thus far.

Seeing breakout short potential now. Need to verify trend. HUGE volume all of a sudden.

shorted at 1280.25

Bad trade, lost .75 points.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Reversed trade and went long at 1281.25. Lost a point on the short.

flat trade....grrr...feel like I wasted a day. In a 10 min period on the 1 min chart, 7 indicators were doji's AFTER the breakout...grrrrr

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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I broke my rule and took another trade as it fit my indicators. Lo and behold, 4 point gain. w00t! What's up now?!

If I get stuck in a bad trade, I have to find a way back to the positive, so 3-4 trades a day I think. Made 3 today and I'm happy.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Reviewed rules (i.e. beat them into my head again). I need to be more patient on the sell side. It seems that after a gain, there is a period of low volume and holding it (provided in up-trend) will allow an additional point-ish gain.

First trade of the day, buy side: 1280. Cleared position as 1281.25. If I would have held it 45 seconds longer the gain would have increased to 1283 or so, at which time churning began and I would have exited the position, resulting in a 12 tick gain. Am I happy with the trade? Most definitely.

Seems a short side may be coming up. Will review indicators and see how it is best to proceed. Low volume and doji's indicate market doesn't know which way to...no trade as there is no trend.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Followed my indicators to make another trade. Reversed on me and held but never crossed my stop. Recovered after an HOUR AND 10 MINUTES! Massively stressful. Closed out for a .25 gain, so while it isn't as positive as I'd like, it still is positive.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Working on creating blackbox strategy. First one resulted in a 10.25 point gain over 15 days. Not QUITE the results I'm looking for, especially since the backtest showed the strategy bought at the correct point but then held it to closing. Will review video Mike posted when I get home to create a more accurate strategy. Perhaps I should go for the 4 tick gain instead of 10 ticket gain. Will fiddle and see what results come up.

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 JohnnyAustin 
Austin, TX
 
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Spent yesterday working on a blackbox, backtesting, etc. Didn't really watch the market to trade. Backtested strategy on yesterday, resulting a 4.5 point gain. Am currently running sim of live blackbox trading. Thus far, the market dived after crossing threshold for my rules, resulting in a stoploss. Running full auto sim today, will examine results after markets close.

Saw a trade based off indicators and took it. Closed it out after volume fell resulting in a 1.5pt gain. Auto trade took and closed out. Now at BE for day.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Started using Perry's trading method. It is more in-depth than my method and definitely see where it is a good system. Watched it for a bit this morning then made a trade when it said to 2 point gain.

I did add Bollinger bands, making the middle band transparent, as this helps me identify strength of the trend.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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got whacked with a big move....

trade was in the trend and met indicators but someone decided to go reverse.

I'm done for an hour. Aggravated. Trade hit my stop, closed me out, then seconds later reversed on me to go back up. Really pissed. I know I shouldn't be, but.....I am human.

It is the shorts which have killed me. BE on long trades but minus 5.25 points on the short.

going to go back over my default charts and see what those look like....

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Ok, went back to original charts, was able to get to almost BE. Last trade of day, took a trade that matched my signals, was positive closing but only by .5 points. If I could have cashed out high, would have made 2 point profit, thereby being positive for the day. My thought on the closing was that the volume would pick up and drive it higher in the last few minutes. But this wasn't the case, instead it closed down on the day but I got out of the trade at profit.

Frustrating day. Will be reviewing data and charts. Added high/low volume indicators to the bars in Perry's chart to see where big money comes in and also where the amateurs are playing it.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Came at it again today. Locked in a gain following Perry's method. Going to make alot less trades today and apply KISS.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Perry method said trade short, I did, got stopped out. Awesome.


Edit, only to have to reverse and go profitable. Frustrated, I tell ya what....already down -2.5 points using this trading method, elsewise known as method of loss.

going back to my original charts....will see how I do then.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Was able to pull another point out, but now the range is just so narrow I'm scalping to get anything. Just seems to not be worth it to me to trade right now. Bollinger bands show three quarters of a point difference. Will it stay like this for the rest of the day? I see minor breakouts here and there, but nothing close to a pull point and they don't last more than 1 ticket for a quarter point gain or so.

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 Jeff Castille 
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Hey Johnny,

Today you've got two things going against you........

#1 Options Expiration Day........NOT A GOOD DAY TO TRADE

#2 Friday Afternoon........NOT A GOOD TIME TO TRADE

Jeff

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Jeff,
Thanks for the info. Didn't know it was options expiration day today, but should have. Thanks. I'll start reviewing my week's trades to see where I did right and where I went wrong.

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 Jeff Castille 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Jeff,
Thanks for the info. Didn't know it was options expiration day today, but should have. Thanks. I'll start reviewing my week's trades to see where I did right and where I went wrong.

Just knowing when to trade and when not to trade goes a long way........it will save you a lot of frustration and MONEY!!

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Dropping Perry's method. I can see where it is good, but alot of fluff that I feel I don't need. Since using it, racked up big losses and I'm, to put it bluntly, pissed. Not at him or the method, but at myself. Focusing on this or that, changing this or that, and adding or removing this or that has REALLY thrown me off my game. I found something which worked for me and I decided to F with it, to my detriment.

When I had my trading method and applied it, I had a long gain of 48.5 points in 2 weeks. When I switched and started messing around with it, playing with this or that, I went to hell with a quickness.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Back at my original method. Had a short profit of a quarter point...had to wait due to work before getting in on next trade. Didn't want to enter mid-trend just to have it end. Found an entry point, made the trade, gained 5 ticks.

Total gain this morning was, well, I'm embarrassed to give the number of points lost. Regained my calm, locked in thus far 6 ticks. Don't know if I'll break even today, in fact, I highly doubt it. But back to the fundamentals. It is what has always worked.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Dropping Perry's method. I can see where it is good, but alot of fluff that I feel I don't need. Since using it, racked up big losses and I'm, to put it bluntly, pissed. Not at him or the method, but at myself. Focusing on this or that, changing this or that, and adding or removing this or that has REALLY thrown me off my game. I found something which worked for me and I decided to F with it, to my detriment.

When I had my trading method and applied it, I had a long gain of 48.5 points in 2 weeks. When I switched and started messing around with it, playing with this or that, I went to hell with a quickness.

You know... I know you know what you are doing, but curious if other instruments would serve you better?

ES is an interesting beast. I don't see many retail traders focusing on that one anymore. The dynamic has changed I guess so it is so hard scalp and profit? I haven't read your method, just the last few posts.

Your method is fine, but ES in my opinion is a big money loser compared to others.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Such as? CL and 6E? I'm open to recommendations.....

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 JohnnyAustin 
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2 contracts taken long after seeing, watching, waiting, and taking my buy signals. Was burned today, wanted to be sure of the move. 2 contracts was actually by accident. Result was a 2 point gain for one and a 2.25 gain on another. Hung onto the trade for almost 30 minutes.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Such as? CL and 6E? I'm open to recommendations.....

Did you read this:



This will explain the 'churn' factor a bit when scalping etc...

I stick to TF, CL and GC. Just playing w/ CL & GC. I have played w/ FDAX a bit, but boy... I was going against a 1 day 70 point run on the DAX!!!! I couldn't believe it. That thing can move!

I think it all depends on what you are comfortable with. These others may move too much for you, but what I have discovered is that they are more likely to give you a recovery trade than the ES.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Alas, I'm not yet an elite member so I can't read that.. Soon enough though. The DAX can certainly move. When I traded equities, most of them were on the Dow simply because of the large moves that I could get profit from. The ES has been my focus because of the huge amount of contracts traded on it, 10 to 20 times what the YM has on it.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Alas, I'm not yet an elite member so I can't read that.. Soon enough though. The DAX can certainly move. When I traded equities, most of them were on the Dow simply because of the large moves that I could get profit from. The ES has been my focus because of the huge amount of contracts traded on it, 10 to 20 times what the YM has on it.

Do you require that kind of liquidity? Meaning do you trade 50 contracts per trade? If so, I would probably stick to ES then, but anything less and I would go for something else. I would put the $ towards an elite membership. Some of that stuff is a good read and might as well contribute to the community.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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I don't require that kind of liquidity...yet, or at least for 2-3 years. I'll look into the YM and see how that trades.

I'll def put money towards Elite membership. This forum is outstanding and can definitely see the value. Not just via the webinars, but all the other info provided by Mike and others.

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 PandaWarrior 
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almost all traders I know are out of ES. They are in GC, CL, 6E, ZN, ZB, etc.....anything with some movement. If you miss the one move of the day on ES, you are screwed. These other instruments will give you many opportunities each day.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 bluemele 
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aztrader9 View Post
almost all traders I know are out of ES. They are in GC, CL, 6E, ZN, ZB, etc.....anything with some movement. If you miss the one move of the day on ES, you are screwed. These other instruments will give you many opportunities each day.

Agree.

I am really liking GC lately. Wow... If you have balls of steel FDAX is always worth looking at. haha...

These guys will all give you a bail out if you screwed up. Of course, I like TF.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Made a point today off two trades thus far. Another point would be fantastic though. I think that trade will be coming later in the day. I'm taking what the market gives me after the momentum stalls out. Be it a quarter point or 3 points. Not trying to be greedy, just taking what the market gives me.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Stopped out early today for a 8 tick loss. Am now at BE with this trade. 4 ticks up, got out at Bid, could have pulled out .25 more but didn't want to get caught on pullback so I took the profit.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Last trade for today. Saw pretty big volume coming in, went long. Signals indicated long, bought for a point gain. Am happy today is positive. 100% perfect profitable shorts, 73% profitable longs.

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 bluemele 
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Johnny,

You can choose properties on the chart trader and there is a setting that says something like "show P-N-L when no active orders" or something (not on my trading computer) as it would help us see your profits if you are ok to share them.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Bluemele, I was looking at that before I went home for the day. Thus far for January, I'm up 17.5 points, which equals about to be just over half a point per day. The last week and a half (when I switched to Perrys method) really killed my profits. I had something which worked and I changed. More screen time will be beneficial as right now I've only been on the futures market for almost 2 months.

Shorts, also, have been my bane. Lost a TON on shorts. Not on my computer w/ the platform so I can't show you, but it does suck. Probably 30 points lost in the short. Discipline is the failure there, taking a trade just to take one. Afterwards, I feel like...well...

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 bluemele 
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Not sure many people made much on any shorts the last few months. seems like we are doing 3 month patterns of never-ending up and then never-ending down, etc..

I think we are on the verge of a retracement so I wonder how your shorts will do then. I think for most traders, shorts are a natural inclination as we all think in terms of gravity. Hahaha. Maybe if we grew up in space we would have as much success on shorts as we do longs.

I think I see some real value to your trading, but I am curious how you would do on other instruments that feed a little more? Did you take a look, what was your impression etc..?

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Wish I woulda been in the office for this morning's shorts but now looking at the move up perhaps? I see lots of buying now...

Running two charts today, the YM and ES. We'll see how I do. Just took a trade on each. SMA is positive, indicators by upper bollinger bands. Will see how this plays out. And got stopped out....

Short went well.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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NT7 froze on me, wouldn't shut down, and gave me a big red X across the window. Had to force quit it and when it came back, my historical data was gone as was the YM instrument. Reloaded it to get the symbol back...but just wiped out my daily pnl, not to mention monthly.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Bluemele, trading one contract on the YM seems easy enough and with the movement, the spread is easily covered. Need to learn to trade it and see how it moves. Today is a fluke though, bad day to begin, it being Friday notwithstanding.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Bluemele, trading one contract on the YM seems easy enough and with the movement, the spread is easily covered. Need to learn to trade it and see how it moves. Today is a fluke though, bad day to begin, it being Friday notwithstanding.

I would spend a week evaluating GC, CL, FDAX, TF and go from there.

YM could work, but the others move better and trend better. Good luck! Sorry for being pushy. haha...

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 JohnnyAustin 
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What is a good trade move per each instrument? half point? point? 20 points?

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  #61 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
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1.5pt gain thus far on ES. 17 points on YM thus far. Late start, super busy Monday so I've not had the time to get all the trades I wanted. 100% positive trades today and all long, none short. What the chart doesn't show is the huge amount of volume coming in for the long.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Long trade met all my indicators then the markets got all kinds of choppy. Set sell at a quarter point gain on ES, was filled several minutes later. 3 minutes later, market made a move up by a half point. I'm ok with that. Stayed in the YM trade, set sell for a 3 point gain. Am currently waiting for that to be filled.

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  #63 (permalink)
 JohnnyAustin 
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Trade wasn't filled, market reversed for a 8pt loss. Completed a reverse on YM for a 2 point gain. Waited a bit and long signals emerged again. 10 point gain on YM as I waited long enough but didn't want to wait on ES so I got out at a .5 point gain.

Still a bit of trading to go. I still feel a bit skittish on YM mostly due to lack of exposure and not seeing how it trades on a consistent basis. It seems reversals are big and can easily put one out of the money.

Trend is up but market is choppy with a gravestone doji at SMA 20. Not getting back in till signals are hit again.

Signals hit again but I stayed out still a long(er) trend developed due to the high amounts of volume. No ES trade, made a YM trade for a 6 point gain.

PnL for today is...
Contracts per trade: 1
ES: +$112.50
YM: +$205
Gross: +$317.50
L: -$65 ($25 on ES and $40 on YM)
Net proft: +$252.50
Commission: $68.76
Daily PnL: +$183.74

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Added an instrument, CL, as recommended by bluemele. Wow is pretty much all I can say. Here is the daily pnl thus far which bluemele informed me about in an earlier post. Is this an average trading day for CL? I think I'll add the QM and see how that moves in accordance after today's trading is over.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Got SWAMPED with work today. Still not done with it, but oh well. Couldn't focus on the markets for any length of appreciable time after my last post so I had to leave it be. I do see nice trending on the CL, but the price fluctuations are just crazy huge, at least for me.

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 Big Mike 
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Please be extremely careful with CL, it is not an instrument to find your footing as a trader.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Good morning Mike.Yes, I saw that. Too much volatility for me and too much risk. Sticking back today to YM and ES. Smaller, but better for me at the moment and in the short time period going forward.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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One stop hit today and other minor reversals are eating away at me today. Signals hit, took a position, and about 3 minutes later it reversed on me to 5 ticks down. Still in the trade, which never hit my stop and is up to 3 ticks down. And now hit my stop. Awesome. Been stopped out twice in 1 hour. Just reversed on the trade...

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Signal's hit, took trade. Rode it out for a 1.5pt gain. Sold at high (professional level) volume pattern bar. Since that bar was hit, price has recessed by 1.5 points.

YM is crazy today, jumping all over the place and I just can't get into the groove. Closing out on that instrument today.

Signals hit again, took trade, am now stopped out again! WTF!

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 tderrick 
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What's up Johnny?

You've received some good advice from some sharp cats.

Here is my experience.

I started out scalping the ES and lost 50% of my first account. It is very difficult to be consistent on.

I now trade the YM as I can have larger stops to stay out of PA combat which you are now familiar with. But. I would
not scalp this one either. Wait for the one or two decent trends that occur everyday bouncing between
prior S/R and the the prior day OHLC levels.... if you trade more than 5, you are scalping - very hard.

The YM also has an affinity for 25 block numbers, having more weight at the 50's and the 100's.

I haven't tried TF but that will be my next instrument when I can tolerate a decent stop witn $10 ticks.

I also would suggest looking at a 5 and a 15 minute chart with an EMA 20 and see how elegantly the markets can
move. If its choppy, its very evident on the 15.

So.... How far away are you placing your stops??


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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Added an instrument, CL, as recommended by bluemele. Wow is pretty much all I can say. Here is the daily pnl thus far which bluemele informed me about in an earlier post. Is this an average trading day for CL? I think I'll add the QM and see how that moves in accordance after today's trading is over.

Per the PM, I suggest being cautious w/ CL as well. The point was move on from ES if you can as I think you will be more profitable. I don't trade CL as it is like a bronckin buck.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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tderrick View Post
What's up Johnny?

You've received some good advice from some sharp cats.

Here is my experience.

I started out scalping the ES and lost 50% of my first account. It is very difficult to be consistent on.

I now trade the YM as I can have larger stops to stay out of PA combat which you are now familiar with. But. I would
not scalp this one either. Wait for the one or two decent trends that occur everyday bouncing between
prior S/R and the the prior day OHLC levels.... if you trade more than 5, you are scalping - very hard.

The YM also has an affinity for 25 block numbers, having more weight at the 50's and the 100's.

I haven't tried TF but that will be my next instrument when I can tolerate a decent stop witn $10 ticks.

I also would suggest looking at a 5 and a 15 minute chart with an EMA 20 and see how elegantly the markets can
move. If its choppy, its very evident on the 15.

So.... How far away are you placing your stops??

I'm placing my stops 6 ticks down. I figure most ES price corrections/variations happen within that range.

PA combat = price action combat I assume. Looking at the 15 min on 20 EMA, it is very choppy on the ES today.

What do you mean by "YM also has an affinity for 25 block numbers, having more weight at the 50's and the 100's."

While I do try to buy the bid and sell the ask, the intent is not to scalp the 1/4 point move in ES, it is intended to maximize profits on the trend up or down. If most of my trades w/ the spread covered are 3-4 ticks, taking out 2 ticks for the spread really puts a damper on my pnl.

bluemele, yes you did.

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 tderrick 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
I'm placing my stops 6 ticks down. I figure most ES price corrections/variations happen within that range.

PA combat = price action combat I assume. Looking at the 15 min on 20 EMA, it is very choppy on the ES today.

What do you mean by "YM also has an affinity for 25 block numbers, having more weight at the 50's and the 100's."

While I do try to buy the bid and sell the ask, the intent is not to scalp the 1/4 point move in ES, it is intended to maximize profits on the trend up or down. If most of my trades w/ the spread covered are 3-4 ticks, taking out 2 ticks for the spread really puts a damper on my pnl.

bluemele, yes you did.

The fifteen minute chart is revealing, isn't it. If you can learn to trade the 5 min. it will keep you out of the
noise a bit.

The YM has a pyschological S/R phenom with incremental prices... like it stopped dead at 12,000.
When it fell, it fell to 11,900, etc. It has weaker pauses at 50 and weaker still at 25.

When you draw some SR lines from prior days they almost always line up at these numbers. Weird.

My advice to you is to put your stop under or over S/R. Sometimes, it may be uncomfortably large. But if you are in
a true trend, it shouldn't come back to it. I have a hard time dealing with pullbacks, myself. You will learn
the difference between a pullback and a trend swing. Sharky has some great indicators for this. My biggest battle is taking profit when it closes in on my BE point. So at the end of the day, I have 5 trades going
up the trend line when one would have sufficed the whole time.

Trust in your S/R lines. When one is broken, Price is usually travelling to the next. Put your stop
just under the old S/R level. And wait until after the the first pullback on the breakout so you don't
get faked out.

A good trend will stay off the EMA 20 or come back to touch it every once in a while. It it crosses it hard,
the trend is in trouble. If price is hanging around the 20, it is chop.

All these behaviours I speak of pertain to the YM.

I make money in the YM when I am patient and follow these simple rules. When I don't, I always
lose money.


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 JohnnyAustin 
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Tderrick, that is some great info, thank you. Today I will be focusing on the TF and YM. Got both charts up and seeing how today goes.


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 JohnnyAustin 
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Trading based of my signals, am 3.6 points profitable on TF (even after my stop was just hit on a $80 reversal) and 8 ticks thus far on YM with an open trade.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Seeing the market get choppy with very little volume. I'm out till another trend appears, gotta protect my earned capital. VERY happy today thus far.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Reached for a daily goal...stopped out twice.Wasn't desperate. Looking at the 5 min chart, the trend was there, but late choppiness took away my goal with a quickness. Was stopped out of a trade literally 2 seconds after entering it. Frustrating, but oh well....

Earlier today I noticed the YM and TF basically go in the same direction but right now I see they are moving in opposite directions. Super long shadows on the last 9 TF bars. Es no bueno.

Ended today with a 4.4 point gain net total. Not bad I think. What do you think?

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 bluemele 
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Doesn't matter what I think. However, I suggest sticking to just a couple hours a day on the TF. It putters along most days after 11am EST.

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 tderrick 
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bluemele View Post
Doesn't matter what I think. However, I suggest sticking to just a couple hours a day on the TF. It putters along most days after 11am EST.


Yes... Trading is tough after the London close. You may also try getting up a bit early sometimes and try the
London open. I've seen big trend days start right after midnight CDT. But usually the move will start at 2am
and you will know by 3am if something is forming. I have made many a profit target in the overnight. And
sometimes that will be the only good move of the day as the NY open will just range the rest of the day.
or sometimes reverse.

As for your earnings, believe me, anything in the green is wonderful in this business. Or should I say
anything out of the Red.

Good work... and remember, patience and a cool head.

My biggest problem is getting pissed off when I start getting down and it makes it very difficult to work
out of it. I also tend to get overconfident when I win. When I overcome this I will be a good trader.

Remember, the market repeats itself. Learn to recognize certain PA movements that lead to others.


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 JohnnyAustin 
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Came in today a bit late due to the snow. Saw a trend, waited a bar and it was still gaining. Opened a position and saw big money coming in. Closed with no gain. Waited 4 minutes for the reversal, ended up with 19 ticks profit in 20 minutes of being open. Closed the position, am now watching.

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 bluemele 
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Seems like TF is suiting you well.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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bluemele View Post
Seems like TF is suiting you well.

It does seem that way, doesn't it. Thank you.

Was able to another half point, only to lose most of it later. Got nervous watching the YM and TF and when they started to move independent of each other, I pulled out of the market. Got out with a 4 tick loss. Stoploss was 7 ticks and I didn't want to wait that long. cut the losses, ensured profitability.

Two days on TF, 6 points. 1 day, yesterday, on YM, 10 tick gain. Avg winning trade: 1.5 points.

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 tderrick 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
It does seem that way, doesn't it. Thank you.

Was able to another half point, only to lose most of it later. Got nervous watching the YM and TF and when they started to move independent of each other, I pulled out of the market. Got out with a 4 tick loss. Stoploss was 7 ticks and I didn't want to wait that long. cut the losses, ensured profitability.

Two days on TF, 6 points. 1 day, yesterday, on YM, 10 tick gain. Avg winning trade: 1.5 points.


Do you have a preference between the two yet?? I am looking to get into the TF but I am so familiar
with YM that I am hesitant. I hear it is smoother... (TF)


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 JohnnyAustin 
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I was a fan of trading the DOW when I was trading equities and feel I could make a killing on that IF I were able to get into the office before market open. I know the daily market shows start around 3am stating how the market will open, up or down with a range of 10-20 points usually, and based off that, the first 5-10 minutes of movement is great before the correction. However, I have yet to watch live the open of the Dow on the exchanges and see how it affects the YM. Something to review for correlation for sure.

That said, I enjoy the trending (thus far) of the TF. With each point per contract worth $100, in comparison to the ES or YM, being able to be in the money on a trend for a gain of at LEAST $30-$50 per contract is really simple and super quick, often happening in seconds. YM also has the same moves but there seem to be more retracements in that then the TF, as far as I've seen....

Ask me the same thing in a week or two. Until then, need to re-up my sim acct.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Saw a good trade this morning and took it. Unfortunately, my stops were too tight and it stopped me out on the YM and TF at 6 and .7 ticks respectively, resulting in a first trade loss of $110. Reviewed the signals on multi-minute charts and it was still there. Re-took the trade and just closed it out at a $320 gain. Sat on it too long though and didn't maximize the trade as there is a bit of profit taking going on or a market reversal.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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I see market churning and was able to get another point gain, but not reliable trend in the 1-2 min chart. The 5 min chart shows chop and I'm out for the day with a 4.1 pt gain for the day. I was drawn away from my desk for a bit and when I came back, did see a trade that I would have taken on the YM for a 6 tick gain. C'est la vie, I'm not sweatin' it.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Ok...been watching today and my setup was hit twice more, resulting in ANOTHER 4.5 points over the past few hours. Happy today w/ 8.6 pt gain primarily on the TF. Missed an entry typing this, but that's ok. I won't be greedy.

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 bluemele 
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johnnycakes78704 View Post
Ok...been watching today and my setup was hit twice more, resulting in ANOTHER 4.5 points over the past few hours. Happy today w/ 8.6 pt gain primarily on the TF. Missed an entry typing this, but that's ok. I won't be greedy.

How would you compare TF to ES?

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Well, there are a few observations. Obviously, big money can be made within the ES, as the market has, what, a million contracts traded each day? However, for myself as a trader (I am hesitant to say investor) the TF seems to be the better platform. It seems it is easier to trade smaller contract numbers on the TF for better gains to the individual. That said, larger contract amounts 30-50+ can be traded on the ES for smaller gains but ideally, more profit. This, I think, is where the scalping the quarter point to half a point can be advantageous and thus I can see where and how people make 3/4 of a point a day and still are profitable.

I was thinking over last night was developing an auto-strat for the ES to capitalize on the big daily ES swing be it short or long, and will see how it goes when I get some time to make it. I'll be trading the TF manually though.

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 tderrick 
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Any more thoughts on the YM?


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 JohnnyAustin 
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It seems to me that while it is a great mover, the potential that can be had with the YM as compared to the TF just isn't there. That said, I'm working mainly on trading 1 contract. If it were 10-15 contracts, I can definitely see the increased potential and usefulness. The honesty of the YM and TF are fantastic, as the pullbacks on the ES annoyed me greatly as I couldn't be sure if I was in a position in the right direction, often causing me to get out of a position too early to ensure profits.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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And my day is done. I'm looking at the movement and while it is generally long, volatility is up and I'm out. Lotsa blue bars I see and getting mixed up in that movement is too much risk for me. After all, it is all about protecting your capital right? And today has been a great day of accumulating capital.

Average winning trade is 1 point. Traded a bit on the YM today, made 15 points with a 100% win ratio.

I upped the contracts today to 3 until the last few minutes and was happy with the fill's although I did see two instances of slippage and a no-fill on a singular closing trade of 1 contract. I also made a mistake scrolling across the screen where I accidentally reversed a trade instead of closing it out, which then sucked away (between two reversals and a closing trade) $350 in profit. My gross for today was in excess of $1400, but that one mistake was the biggest killer of my early pnl. I was considering stopping for the day before that mistake and needed to make some trades to get back up to a level I was comfortable with.

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 tderrick 
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Hey, Johnny

When you have time, would you explain your system to me? I'm in complete re-vamp mode and I like
your results.

I am swithing over to the TF also...


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 JohnnyAustin 
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Aren't we not supposed to give away our secrets? I thought that was a golden rule on here somewhere, how traders who break the code go silent on their system or else it'll stop working

Look at the images I've posted and that should definitely help show how I make the entry decisions, specifically the last few ones. I use the ZLEMA, bollingers, EMA colors, ease of movement, volume patterns, and a bar timer on a 1 min, 2, and 3 min charts. Here is an image from today. See if you can figure it out. You're a smart guy, I'm sure you can.

Personally, I was really nervous about today, taking profits when I could instead of letting winners ride. Should I have let my last trade ride instead of getting nervous and fearing the stop, I would have let 7 tick move turn into a 24 tick move.

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 PandaWarrior 
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tderrick View Post
Hey, Johnny

When you have time, would you explain your system to me? I'm in complete re-vamp mode and I like
your results.

I am swithing over to the TF also...

AJ, don't change to much. You are on the right track trading the 5 and 15.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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 JohnnyAustin 
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aztrader9 View Post
AJ, don't change to much. You are on the right track trading the 5 and 15.

He has a point. When I first started looking into futures, I heard 5 and 15 or 5 and 20 all day long with no other indicators. That works for them and for sure you'll be able to get it too. How much review of the day do you do? Ever download the data from days you didn't trade and replay the data, sim trading it? You've gone live with a system which is more than I've done. Whatever it is that you choose to go with, stick with it. Learn it and make your mind work it. Get the hours in to learn it and you'll be profitable so long as you stick to the rules and don't be greedy.

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 tderrick 
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Thanks, guys... I think I'm starting to go a little nuts with study overload....


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
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 JohnnyAustin 
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Two missed trades due to self-absorped people. I'm so pissed. I need to go live as soon as feasible and GTFO of this environment where control of my day is handed off to someone else. Potential 5 point gain lost.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Two bad trades later have added onto the frustration. Im pissed, but it'll pass. I need a break and it seems today is just not my day. Closed out the charts, am waiting an hour to reopen them.

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 JohnnyAustin 
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Today was an exercise in what not to do. It seemed as though every time my indicators were hit and I took the trade, it reversed on me. And again. And again. And AGAIN. Frustration was the name of the game today. I noticed alot of people talking about the choppiness today. Looking at the 5 min chart I do see very angular moves today, no smooth tracing movement.

Still came out with a profit for the day, but not happy about how I achieved it. The market was WAY too choppy today and the shorts saved me. And the HUGE volume in the last 25 min of TF. 2 bars on the 5 min chart covering approx 25-30 ticks each, one short and one long. Late trading craziness.

For the past 7 days, I'm up 200 ticks. For the current week I am up 140 ticks and have one more day to go. Trading percentages are at 66% for long and 63% for short for the past 7 days. Not too bad I think, but no where near sharky who made that, and more, today. Of course, he is trading a different instrument and has a bit more experience than I....

We shall see what tomorrow brings. Overall, given the week, I am definitely pleased. I know tomorrow is Friday and no one should trade, but there doesn't seem to be too much market news.

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