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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #1 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


My TREND INDICATOR - NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! thread was the most widely viewed thread in TradeStation history. I believe it still holds the record for the most number of views. My NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! thread was the most widely viewed thread at BabyPips. Those forums decided to REMOVE the thread.

The bottom line is you don't have to end the day, week, month, or year in the red. You can be profitable. You may not win every trade but you will be profitable.

I know most of you have read about money management, risk management, position sizing, stops, etc... So then what are the reason(s) you are still losing? Is the market beating you? Are your stops being hunting? Or are you simply giving your money away?

When you enter the TRADING JUNGLE, you are up against the best traders in the world. They are smarter, faster, have more money, have better equipment, better access to information... better everything than you do! What makes you believe you can win? What "edge" are you bringing to the table that will allow you to take their money? Don't you know the game is "rigged" against you just like in Vegas?

What's the reason you see some currency pairs move over a 100 pips a day yet you're happy barely breaking even? What makes trading so difficult for you? What are you doing?

I know you have read about having a trading plan, haven't you? Do you have one? Come on, be honest... DO YOU REALLY HAVE A TRADING PLAN?

If you do, DO YOU REALLY TRADE ACCORDING TO YOUR PLAN? Come on now, it's time to FESS UP.

What about all those trading books, tapes, videos, and seminars? Ever wonder why there are so many? I just ONE had the answer, then wouldn't it go "viral" and everybody would be trading that method? THINK ABOUT IT.

What about all those indicators, EAs, blackboxes, trading signals and systems for sale? If one of them worked wouldn't it go "viral", too?

I have posted hundreds of FREE INDICATORS for TradeStation, eSignal and MetaTrader. Why? Because I can! I don't like seeing people pay hundreds and thousands of dollars for code, most of which, doesn't work or is way overpriced, IMHO. If you check me out, you'll see I have been banned from many forums. My FREE indicators are a THREAT to their cashflow. My free education materials also threaten their cashflow. Just do the math.

I have been accused of "renaming" indicators. Yes, I rename them AFTER I enhance them because if I post a modified version with the exact same name as the original then it gets "stepped on" and any good programmer knows better than to step on code. But I post my revised/enhanced/fixed version FOR FREE on the same site I downloaded them from. So where's the crime? Some people let their egos get in the way.

I have been accused of SPAMMING because I am an IB for MB Trading. Before I was an IB, I didn't even know what an IB was. The reason I am an IB was because when I found out that there is NO FIXED SPREAD in Forex, I immediately opened an account with EFX Group and posted about it everywhere I could. That had the effect of bringing EFX more customers. As a THANK YOU, they made me an IB. And it got me banned from sites that had FIXED SPREAD BROKERS as advertisers.

Whenever MONEY is involved, it is a DOG EAT DOG, EAT CAT TOO jungle. The sooner you learn that fact the better.

The goal of this thread is to show you how to NEVER LOSE AGAIN. Trading is simple. People traded long before there were computers and indicators. So why do you have so many computers and indicators?

Do you really know how the FOREX market operates? Or do you just know how to place an order? What have you gotten yourself into? THINK ABOUT IT!


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  #2 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

"An ad hominem attack against an intellectual, not against an idea, is highly flattering. It indicates that the person does not have anything intelligent to say about your message."

- Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The Black Swan" P-297

"I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."

- Dr. S. Sivaraman

I started this thread. If you do not like me, what I do or how I do it then leave and do not come back. NO ONE IS FORCING YOU TO READ THIS THREAD.

I am open to debating trading issues. PERSONAL ATTACKS WILL NOT BE TOLERATED.

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  #3 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

Remember what H. Rearden said:

Now, 2 patterns of market behaviour happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

If price is NOT making a new low then it must be reversing from the low.

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  #4 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."


Residential Property Analytics: Humans Are Wired to See Patterns Where There Are None

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  #5 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

"Think about the stock market, which is a classic example of a "random walk," since the past movement of any particular stock cannot be used to predict its future movement. The inherent randomness of the market was first proposed by the economist Eugene Fama, in the early 1960's. Fama looked at decades of stock market data in order to prove that no amount of knowledge or rational analysis could help you figure out what would happen next. All of the esoteric tools used by investors to make sense of the market were pure nonsense. Wall Street was like a slot machine."


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  #6 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

"Unless you experience the unpleasant symptoms of being wrong, your brain will never revise its models. Before your neurons can succeed, they must repeatedly fail. There are no shortcuts for this painstaking process." (Page 54) HOW WE DECIDE

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  #7 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

  • Price either goes up or down.
  • No one knows what will happen next.
  • Keep losses small and let winners run.
  • The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.
  • You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).
  • You need to know when to pick up your chips and cash them in.
Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
You can not control the probabilities of wining or losing.

You can not control your average win size.

The only part of the equation of the equation that you can control is your average loss size.

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  #8 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

Choose Your Advice Carefully

Since your mind is your most valuable asset and your most valuable lever, you need to be careful what you put in it. Sometimes it is even more difficult to get rid of thoughts and ideas that are already in your mind than it is to learn something new - Pg 119 WHY WE WANT YOU TO BE RICH

F - Follow
O - One
C - Course
U - Until
S - Successful


If the rat is beating you, you are the reason why.

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  #9 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


"Individuals appear hard-wired to overattribute success to skill, and to underestimate the role of chance, when both are in fact present."

[Langer, E. J., The Illusion of Control, Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology 32 (2), 311-328 (1975)]


"After a full cycle of rise and fall after which stocks were valued just where they were at the start, all his clients lost money (Don Guyon, 1909).

Many academic works suggest that most managers underperform "buy-and-hold" strategy; persistence of winners is very rare, etc.

Most funds consistently fail to overperform random strategies (dart throwing)."


Rats beat humans in simple games

People makes STORIES!

"Normal people have an "interpreter" in their left brain that takes all the random, contradictory details of whatever they are doing or remembering at the moment, and smoothes everything in one coherent story. If there are details that do not fit, they are edited out or revised!"

(T. Grandin and C. Johnson, Animals in translation (Scribner,
New York, 2005)


The rat will beat you if you do not understand this.

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  #10 (permalink)
Tucson, AZ
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

Learn, Unlearn, and Relearn By: Marcia Conner

The secret to learning new things is to be willing to unlearn--even if your behaviors previously brought success.

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Last Updated on March 20, 2011

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