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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne


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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #51 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


websouth View Post
So TRO (kinda rolls off the tongue, huh) - question for you. I am in agreement with you on the ideas of times frames are conceptual, trend is a myth, etc. I had never thought of only playing one side. Makes sense. Thanks for that. I know you and Michael Kreslik did a study a while back - I believe it was for spot Forex only but you found that after price moved 7 ticks in a certain direction it was going to be a long time coming back... and you state that entry does not matter. You can not control your winnings only your losses. I am onboard so far.

So why use H1 candles and the highs and lows off of them. Candle sticks are an indicator. Why not just use a tick line chart. Space the lines 3 ticks away. You get a move 7 ticks in your favor and you are off to the races... Do you believe some entries are more important than others? Are breakouts from your H1 candles more valid than a cross of a 50 period ma? Why?

Paraphrase -
• Price either goes up or down.
• No one knows what will happen next.

So why use H1 candles and the highs and lows off of them.

I ran a frequency distribution and found an edge.

Do you believe some entries are more important than others?

I do not understand what you mean by important.


Are breakouts from your H1 candles more valid than a cross of a 50 period ma? Why?

No price is "more valid" than another price. You can use randomly placed horizontal lines. In fact, you can trade the "crack in the monitor"...LOL!!

REMEMBER AT EACH PRICE, PRICE WILL EITHER MOVE UP OR DOWN. THAT'S IT. THAT IS ALL THAT THERE IS. GIVING A PRICE A NAME DOESN'T MEAN A THING. DO NOT BE FOOLED.


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  #52 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


websouth View Post
I thought timeframe was a myth...? and it is just a conceptualization (I believe this is true) ....so why a smaller target? I don't think so. Price is just price moving from here to there. The lens you use to look at it shouldn't matter.

websouth, I'm not quite understanding what you're saying on your chart with the "touched two lines." Could you elaborate. Thanks.

Blz


I'm just saying if the statistics show after a move of "7" ticks then price takes a long time to return then you should capitalize on this and set up your chart like this. Seven ticks in your favor you should enter...seven ticks against you and you should exit. If "7" ticks is the "edge". The lines on the chart I attached are set 3 ticks apart so if it travels through 2 of them then you are roughly looking at 7 ticks (counting a tick or two on either side or the fact that the move started in between the lines - probably should hit 3 lines to be safer...) Per TRO - the only real chart is a tick chart.... which is true all prices have to start at the tick level.


So my question is that there seems to be an opposition to squiggly lines but straight lines are ok - why? Specifically plays off of H1 candles....Why? Does entry matter?

Why? Because people believe the squiggly line means something. Squiggly lines move. Straight lines do not move.

 
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  #53 (permalink)
 astra68 
Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: GBPUSD
 
Posts: 22 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 11 given, 14 received


Hi TRO,
I would like to trade this idea -
‘’…because the rat would win 2 out of 3 trades by trading as follows:
If previous bar is red, then look to go short at the previous bar low.
If previous bar is green, then look to go long at the previous bar high.’’

I have seen that you also look at GBPUSD...
Can you give me an Idea to calculate a SL which works statistically positive for the H1?
Maybe also a Tip how the rat would take its booty?

 
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  #54 (permalink)
TAJTrades
Here, GA
 
 
Posts: 158 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1 given, 85 received

FWIW I started to experiment with TRO's concepts. Here is a 60 Min Chart for the ES showing the Distributions. Interesting results for the past 5 days.

This indicator is not ready for prime time. It was a CUI (Coding Under the Influence) effort last night. Has issues with COBC = false.

Should have added: "If I understand the concept correctly"

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  #55 (permalink)
 HJay 
USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: futures
 
HJay's Avatar
 
Posts: 197 since Aug 2009

According to the guidelines, as I understand them you are not suppose to try and filter out the losers. I understand also that there is a 60% chance of the play working. However on my 6E "Rat Trade" this morning I could have saved myself a lot of heat had I checked Sefrat's d9 indicator prior to entry. As you can see from the image a much better signal (complete with d9 confirmation) followed shortly after. Something to think about?

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  #56 (permalink)
 websouth 
Market Wizard
Perdido Beach, AL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: graph paper
Trading: The shiny stuff
 
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Posts: 1,200 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 1,113 given, 1,331 received

An alternative to trading off the cracks in your monitor screen...hehe
If 7 ticks is the tipping point. In other words - Once it reaches this amount it takes a while to come back - then look at a 7 range chart. Only play green or red rat. In other words only be a net long or net short player not both. For net long Enter on close of green bar (price has moved 7 ticks in your favor. Place stop loss at bottom of entry trigger bar. Exit on profit or at close of red bar. ( 7 ticks against your chosen direction) Profit may be 3 or 4 ticks or may be 20 ticks. Don't try to filter. Just keep losses small. Simple. Try it on SIM first.


So which image below predicts the future....answer neither.

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  #57 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


astra68 View Post
Hi TRO,
I would like to trade this idea -
‘’…because the rat would win 2 out of 3 trades by trading as follows:
If previous bar is red, then look to go short at the previous bar low.
If previous bar is green, then look to go long at the previous bar high.’’

I have seen that you also look at GBPUSD...
Can you give me an Idea to calculate a SL which works statistically positive for the H1?
Maybe also a Tip how the rat would take its booty?


 
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  #58 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


TAJTrades View Post
FWIW I started to experiment with TRO's concepts. Here is a 60 Min Chart for the ES showing the Distributions. Interesting results for the past 5 days.

This indicator is not ready for prime time. It was a CUI (Coding Under the Influence) effort last night. Has issues with COBC = false.

Should have added: "If I understand the concept correctly"

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION is NOT my concept. I apply it to trading.

Nice work on your code.

Now all you have to do is show the percentages.

 
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  #59 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009



OPPORTUNITY TIME

 
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  #60 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009



HJay View Post
According to the guidelines, as I understand them you are not suppose to try and filter out the losers. I understand also that there is a 60% chance of the play working. However on my 6E "Rat Trade" this morning I could have saved myself a lot of heat had I checked Sefrat's d9 indicator prior to entry. As you can see from the image a much better signal (complete with d9 confirmation) followed shortly after. Something to think about?

Each trader must find what works for them.


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