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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne


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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #41 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


HJay View Post
These images are from 3 minute charts and I was just focusing on strategy #1 today..

And your FOCUS paid off.


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  #42 (permalink)
 HJay 
USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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TheRumpledOne View Post
And your FOCUS paid off.

You are correct sir!... Thanks for the insight..

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  #43 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009



gannman View Post
Hi TRO

you mentioned in the "all you need" thread that trend is just an illusion. This is certainly an opinion that goes against conventional "wisdom" and I would be interested to learn more on your views of this topic.

There are many, many trend following strategies out there and I'm sure some of them are quite successful. I, like many traders I guess, have been taught to "trade with the trend". When a dominant uptrend (downtrend) is evident, the path of least resistance is up (down), so following the trend should provide you with an edge. Many traders use a higher timeframe to make the dominant trend easier to see.

I would be very interested to hear more of your thoughts regarding trends/trend trading and whether trends have any merit for a rat trader.

Cheers
Simon



95% of traders lose.

Do you think most of them were using "conventional wisdom"?

What about all of the fund managers who can not beat the index?

What about all of the fund managers who have lost billions?

THERE IS NO TREND.

TREND IS A CONCEPT.

TREND EXIST ONLY IN THE MIND OF THE TRADER.


Look at the chart and tell me if the trend is up or down.

TREND IS RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVER JUST LIKE TIME WHICH IS ANOTHER CONCEPT.

One must separate what is REAL from what is CONCEPTUAL.

Do you see the multimeter in the upper right hand corner? That shows the trend on 9 different chart periods over 5 different bar periods. You are looking at 45 different trends for the same instrument at the exact same time.

THERE IS NO TREND.

 
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  #44 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


HJay View Post
You are correct sir!... Thanks for the insight..

You are welcome.

Do the same tomorrow.

And the next day...

And the next...

 
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  #45 (permalink)
 Silvester17 
Columbus, OH
 
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jdella View Post
Silvester are you using this method on smaller time frame charts?

Jeff

Jdella,

I was testing this method with different chart types today. Had success with min, tick and volume charts. Didnt' test range bars, because they always close at the high or low. And I also tested it on different timeframes. From 1 min to 60 min. Same thing, more winners than loseres. Not quite sure yet which one I like the best, need to do some more testing.

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  #46 (permalink)
 jdella 
Concord, NH USA
 
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TheRumpledOne View Post




Which frequency distribution looks better to trade 5 minute or 60 minute?

I'm not quite sure what you mean by frequency Distribution, is that the stats you are referring to on the right side of your charts and if so what should I be looking at?

Thanks for your help.

 
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  #47 (permalink)
 websouth 
Market Wizard
Perdido Beach, AL
 
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So TRO (kinda rolls off the tongue, huh) - question for you. I am in agreement with you on the ideas of times frames are conceptual, trend is a myth, etc. I had never thought of only playing one side. Makes sense. Thanks for that. I know you and Michael Kreslik did a study a while back - I believe it was for spot Forex only but you found that after price moved 7 ticks in a certain direction it was going to be a long time coming back... and you state that entry does not matter. You can not control your winnings only your losses. I am onboard so far.

So why use H1 candles and the highs and lows off of them. Candle sticks are an indicator. Why not just use a tick line chart. Space the lines 3 ticks away. You get a move 7 ticks in your favor and you are off to the races... Do you believe some entries are more important than others? Are breakouts from your H1 candles more valid than a cross of a 50 period ma? Why?

Paraphrase -
Price either goes up or down.
No one knows what will happen next.

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  #48 (permalink)
 Blz17 
Seattle
 
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websouth View Post
So TRO (kinda rolls off the tongue, huh) - question for you. I am in agreement with you on the ideas of times frames are conceptual, trend is a myth, etc. I had never thought of only playing one side. Makes sense. Thanks for that. I know you and Michael Kreslik did a study a while back - I believe it was for spot Forex only but you found that after price moved 7 ticks in a certain direction it was going to be a long time coming back... and you state that entry does not matter. You can not control your winnings only your losses. I am onboard so far.

So why use H1 candles and the highs and lows off of them. Candle sticks are an indicator. Why not just use a tick line chart. Space the lines 3 ticks away. You get a move 7 ticks in your favor and you are off to the races... Do you believe some entries are more important than others? Are breakouts from your H1 candles more valid than a cross of a 50 period ma? Why?

Paraphrase -
Price either goes up or down.
No one knows what will happen next.

websouth, I'm not quite understanding what you're saying on your chart with the "touched two lines." Could you elaborate. Thanks.

Blz

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  #49 (permalink)
 HJay 
USA
 
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Websouth, I just re-read the thread and I believe TRO said ANY timeframe works just that faster time frames expect smaller targets.

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  #50 (permalink)
 websouth 
Market Wizard
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HJay View Post
Websouth, I just re-read the thread and I believe TRO said ANY timeframe works just that faster time frames expect smaller targets.

I thought timeframe was a myth...? and it is just a conceptualization (I believe this is true) ....so why a smaller target? I don't think so. Price is just price moving from here to there. The lens you use to look at it shouldn't matter.

websouth, I'm not quite understanding what you're saying on your chart with the "touched two lines." Could you elaborate. Thanks.

Blz


I'm just saying if the statistics show after a move of "7" ticks then price takes a long time to return then you should capitalize on this and set up your chart like this. Seven ticks in your favor you should enter...seven ticks against you and you should exit. If "7" ticks is the "edge". The lines on the chart I attached are set 3 ticks apart so if it travels through 2 of them then you are roughly looking at 7 ticks (counting a tick or two on either side or the fact that the move started in between the lines - probably should hit 3 lines to be safer...) Per TRO - the only real chart is a tick chart.... which is true all prices have to start at the tick level.


So my question is that there seems to be an opposition to squiggly lines but straight lines are ok - why? Specifically plays off of H1 candles....Why? Does entry matter?

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