Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
95% of traders lose.
Do you think most of them were using "conventional wisdom"?
What about all of the fund managers who can not beat the index?
What about all of the fund managers who have lost billions?
THERE IS NO TREND.
TREND IS A CONCEPT.
TREND EXIST ONLY IN THE MIND OF THE TRADER.
Look at the chart and tell me if the trend is up or down.
TREND IS RELATIVE TO THE OBSERVER JUST LIKE TIME WHICH IS ANOTHER CONCEPT.
One must separate what is REAL from what is CONCEPTUAL.
Do you see the multimeter in the upper right hand corner? That shows the trend on 9 different chart periods over 5 different bar periods. You are looking at 45 different trends for the same instrument at the exact same time.
THERE IS NO TREND.
The following 3 users say Thank You to TheRumpledOne for this post:
I was testing this method with different chart types today. Had success with min, tick and volume charts. Didnt' test range bars, because they always close at the high or low. And I also tested it on different timeframes. From 1 min to 60 min. Same thing, more winners than loseres. Not quite sure yet which one I like the best, need to do some more testing.
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
So TRO (kinda rolls off the tongue, huh) - question for you. I am in agreement with you on the ideas of times frames are conceptual, trend is a myth, etc. I had never thought of only playing one side. Makes sense. Thanks for that. I know you and Michael Kreslik did a study a while back - I believe it was for spot Forex only but you found that after price moved 7 ticks in a certain direction it was going to be a long time coming back... and you state that entry does not matter. You can not control your winnings only your losses. I am onboard so far.
So why use H1 candles and the highs and lows off of them. Candle sticks are an indicator. Why not just use a tick line chart. Space the lines 3 ticks away. You get a move 7 ticks in your favor and you are off to the races... Do you believe some entries are more important than others? Are breakouts from your H1 candles more valid than a cross of a 50 period ma? Why?
• Price either goes up or down.
• No one knows what will happen next.
I thought timeframe was a myth...? and it is just a conceptualization (I believe this is true) ....so why a smaller target? I don't think so. Price is just price moving from here to there. The lens you use to look at it shouldn't matter.
websouth, I'm not quite understanding what you're saying on your chart with the "touched two lines." Could you elaborate. Thanks.
I'm just saying if the statistics show after a move of "7" ticks then price takes a long time to return then you should capitalize on this and set up your chart like this. Seven ticks in your favor you should enter...seven ticks against you and you should exit. If "7" ticks is the "edge". The lines on the chart I attached are set 3 ticks apart so if it travels through 2 of them then you are roughly looking at 7 ticks (counting a tick or two on either side or the fact that the move started in between the lines - probably should hit 3 lines to be safer...) Per TRO - the only real chart is a tick chart.... which is true all prices have to start at the tick level. https://futures.io/general-discussion/701-reminder-simpler-almost-always-better.html#post6207
So my question is that there seems to be an opposition to squiggly lines but straight lines are ok - why? Specifically plays off of H1 candles....Why? Does entry matter?
Last edited by websouth; September 14th, 2009 at 09:51 PM.