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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne


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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #191 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


dsherman View Post
I first looked at applying this to ES, however ES is a beast with a mass psychology that requires its own set of rules. I then looked at the currencies that TRO trades. Just doing this a few days now, with range bars and with 5 minute timeframes. The fun part is creating a Ninja Strategy that runs in real time SIM mode. I think the RAT strategy is very helpful.

It sounds like you were looking for a way to MAKE IT WORK FOR YOU, rather than try to prove it doesn't work. One often finds what they want to find. Nice work!!


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  #192 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


TheRumpledOne View Post
If you want an intelligent answer then ask an intelligent question.

actually i was being rhetorical. (maybe next time i should put it in a big font with all caps)

your quote,

TheRumpledOne View Post
I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore.

is in direct contradiction with statements you made earlier that all we need to know about trading can, and has been by you so boldly in this thread, written down in a few simple rules. i wish that were true.

as for intelligent questions:
- can you explain your exit strategy in terms that a rat could understand and perform.
- can you answer the question at the end of this post?

 
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  #193 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received



TheRumpledOne View Post
It sounds like you were looking for a way to MAKE IT WORK FOR YOU, rather than try to prove it doesn't work. One often finds what they want to find. Nice work!!

i assume that was intended for me?

in fact I have been, and still am, trying to find a way to make it work for me. that's why i'm still asking quesitons.

i'm trying currencies now, hopefully that'll help.

 
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  #194 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
i assume that was intended for me?

in fact I have been, and still am, trying to find a way to make it work for me. that's why i'm still asking quesitons.

i'm trying currencies now, hopefully that'll help.

BigMike installed an IGNORE feature. I can use it or choose to ignore.

 
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  #195 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
actually i was being rhetorical. (maybe next time i should put it in a big font with all caps)

your quote,


is in direct contradiction with statements you made earlier that all we need to know about trading can, and has been by you so boldly in this thread, written down in a few simple rules. i wish that were true.

as for intelligent questions:
- can you explain your exit strategy in terms that a rat could understand and perform.
- can you answer the question at the end of this post?


piersh View Post
doesn't help.

my conclusion: this strategy, as stated, doesn't work.


maybe there's something he's not telling us?

You have already come to a conclusion. Meanwhile, others are making money.

 
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  #196 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


TheRumpledOne View Post
You have already come to a conclusion. Meanwhile, others are making money.

that's why i'm asking you to expand on what you've said.

- can you explain your exit strategy in terms that a rat could understand and perform.
- can you answer the question at the end of this post? NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

if you can't, that's fine too.

 
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  #197 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


Quoting 
Quoting sam028: That's right, and the guy who wrote a genetic optimizer for NT is for sure a newbie in backtesting stuff, that make sense...


Looks like someone removed a post about someone else who created a genetic optimizer for NT. The implication or inference was that this individual is highly intelligent and knows how to back test.

What reason would they have to ask me anything?

Don't you hate it when BIG BROTHER alters history?

 
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  #198 (permalink)
 cunparis 
Paris, France
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,565 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 1,162 given, 2,093 received

Hey guys I just finished reading the thread and have some comments.

Pier: I once was doing like you, backtesting everything. I first met TRO over a year and a half ago. I didn't know how to trade so I was trying to backtest and automate everything. I couldn't backtest his ideas so I discarded them. Now, a year and a half later, I realize that I wasted 1.5 years trying to automate and backtest everything, when trading is really simple. I now trade several markets without any indicators, just trading price and sometimes volume. You can see my trades posted in various threads. I firmly believe that if I told you exactly what I do (BTW it's not a secret I tell people what I do all the time) and you were to backtest it, you'd prove it "doesn't work".

Ok, the rest isn't directed at Pier but to everyone..

In fact, I once tried to backtest a system I developed (developed = the rules & trading plan, talking conceptual here). My tests were always negative. But my manual backtesting using historical charts showed it was profitable. So I traded it and guess what? It was profitable, despite my backtests saying it wasn't. I traded it for 2+ months with a 68% win rate. Yet I couldn't get a profitable backtest! Now you may say that I don't know how to backtest. Maybe that's true. But I'm a professional software developer (15 years experience) and I spent hundreds of hours backtesting every idea I could find, so if I couldn't do it then few people can!

As TRO says, it doesn't matter where you draw the line. He draws the line at the daily high. I draw my line around trading ranges and swing pivots. The truth is you can draw your line anywhere and trade it. It doesn't matter! By using the high of day he's using a line that he can easily run some statistics and come up with probabilities. I can't easily do that with swing pivots because they're not always mechanical (i'm sure someone could try though).

Here's an exercise:

Look at ES and pick a random price between yesterday's high & low. This is your line. Now trade it. When price comes close to your line you trade it. Do whatever you want, but the easiest is to go long when price goes above and short when it goes below. You have 50% chance right? So if you cut your loss to 10 ticks and let winners go to 20 ticks (for currencies, for ES maybe use stop 2 pts and target 4 pts).. if you do that you could theoretically be profitable. The hard part is learning to trade price. To see reversals, to cut your loss asap. Once you learn this you can trade any line you want. If you pick the current day's open then it's even easier. This is what TRO calls Buy Zone. I once wrote a backtest "showing" that it doesn't work. Now I know better!

Today I was trading Euro with some other traders and we all went long at the same time (we use the same entry). Price went up around 15 ticks and came back down I was out at +2 ticks. One guy got out at +7. Another guy got out at -20!!! This is the art of trading. It's what no one can teach you. You have to learn for yourself. It's what makes or breaks you as a trader. It's an art. It's something that cannot be backtested and cannot be taught. Cannot be automated. This is why no automated strategies work. Cause if they did, Goldman would be automating it and taking all our money.

Listen up guys, I didn't listen to TRO when I had my first chance 1.5 years ago. now I'm listening and taking notes. He may be a bit extreme but the guy is telling you EVERYTHING you need to know to learn to trade profitably. Most will run away and go back to their indicators. A few will work hard at it for several months and take money away from those using the indicators. It's that simple. I've never met a professional trader who used more than 1 or 2 simple indicators. Simple as in one oscillator and one moving average at the most. Never.

I've tried to get people here to use volume. I get very little response. Why? I imagine cause it's hard work reading, practicing, and learning how to use it. Why bother when there are tons of indicators to tell one when to enter. I've talked about how mechanical indicator systems don't work I post charts showing profitable trades without any indicators. I'm giving it up now. Anyone who searches for the truth will find it, we've left enough clues.

TRO - Thank you for this thread. Please keep it up. Some real trade examples showing your entry and exit would be most helpful to me. I'd like to include your setup in my trading. I don't trade forex but I trade Euro futures which move really close to spot.

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  #199 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

cunparis:

Please do me a favor and send that post to your fellow moderators here. Some of them are really on my case.

Some people like how I teach. Others hate it.

Would you TRO HATERS prefer PAI MEI teach you?


 
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  #200 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009



Quoting 
TRO - Thank you for this thread. Please keep it up. Some real trade examples showing your entry and exit would be most helpful to me. I'd like to include your setup in my trading. I don't trade forex but I trade Euro futures which move really close to spot.

I have been posting my gauges so traders can learn to SEE OPPORTUNITY.

Then I post the gauges showing how far priced moved off the bottom.

I have posted the entry criteria so you know how I trade.

Do you think you can learn to hit a baseball by watching me hit?

You need to swing the bat to learn how to hit.


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