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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne


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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #181 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009



GBPUSD paid.

USDCAD paid.


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  #182 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


sam028 View Post
That's right, and the guy who wrote a genetic optimizer for NT is for sure a newbie in backtesting stuff, that make sense...

"I am not forcing you to accept my concepts. I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts and if found suitable use in the trades or just ignore. Thanks for your opinion."

 
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  #183 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received



TheRumpledOne View Post
I ONLY GO LONG!

ok, long it is. i doubt it'll make much difference (in the long run). we'll see.


TheRumpledOne View Post
Second thing I mentioned, MORE THAN ONCE, I know what the STATISTICS and FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION tell me about the instruments I trade.

and what do those statistics tell you?

i'm guessing they help you pick your trigger distance (20 pips), and your profit target.

i backtested this over a large set of trigger distances, profit targets, stop losses, MM strategies (since you don't suggest one - 'take what you can'/'let it run' aren't MM strategies). over 9 months of data, over multiple timeframes, over multiple instruments.




TheRumpledOne View Post
Apparently, your trigger is TOO FAR WAY FROM THE HIGH OF THE DAY.

actually, in that chart, the maximum trigger distance is ZERO.

apart from being short, what's wrong with this picture?


 
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  #184 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


TheRumpledOne View Post
I only request the traders to review the market from time to time keeping in mind my concepts

oh, so remind me again. what was all that crap about the rats?

 
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  #185 (permalink)
 dsherman 
Michigan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus/Vision & Stage5/Vision
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 22 given, 18 received

I for one am finding the RAT strategy quite helpful.

 
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  #186 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


dsherman View Post
I for one am finding the RAT strategy quite helpful.

great! what instrument/timeframe are you trading?

 
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  #187 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
ok, long it is. i doubt it'll make much difference (in the long run). we'll see.

and what do those statistics tell you?

i'm guessing they help you pick your trigger distance (20 pips), and your profit target.

i backtested this over a large set of trigger distances, profit targets, stop losses, MM strategies (since you don't suggest one - 'take what you can'/'let it run' aren't MM strategies). over 9 months of data, over multiple timeframes, over multiple instruments.


actually, in that chart, the maximum trigger distance is ZERO.

apart from being short, what's wrong with this picture?


Backtesting is a waste of time.

Instead, calculate the statistics of the instrument.

Find the (daily/weekly/monthly) min, max, mean, mode and median for:

a) the wicks ( high - top and bottom - low)

b) net change ( high - open ) and ( open - low )

c) range ( high - low )

Then run a frequency distribution for "a" and "b".

Then you will know where the triggers are and where to look to take profit.

Each instrument you trade needs to be analyzed.

For example:

1) I know to look for a reversal when GBPUSD has a daily net change of 200 pips.

2) I know to look for a reversal when GBPUSD is within 20 pips of the daily low.

If 2 occurs before 1, it is riskier.

 
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  #188 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
oh, so remind me again. what was all that crap about the rats?

If you want an intelligent answer then ask an intelligent question.

 
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  #189 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


dsherman View Post
I for one am finding the RAT strategy quite helpful.

Obviously, you have an open mind and you will benefit.

 
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  #190 (permalink)
 dsherman 
Michigan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Optimus/Vision & Stage5/Vision
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 40 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 22 given, 18 received



piersh View Post
great! what instrument/timeframe are you trading?

I first looked at applying this to ES, however ES is a beast with a mass psychology that requires its own set of rules. I then looked at the currencies that TRO trades. Just doing this a few days now, with range bars and with 5 minute timeframes. The fun part is creating a Ninja Strategy that runs in real time SIM mode. I think the RAT strategy is very helpful.


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