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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne


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NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! - TheRumpledOne

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  #171 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
doesn't help.

my conclusion: this strategy, as stated, doesn't work.

maybe there's something he's not telling us?

I am trading FOREX. I post charts/gauges BEFORE/AFTER and you see the results.

No system wins 100% of the time.

DO NOT OVER TRADE!!


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  #172 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

Backtesting is a WASTE OF TIME! It is just another TRADING MYTH. It sounds good. "Everybody says to do it".

AND THAT IS ANOTHER REASON WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE!!

 
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  #173 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received



TheRumpledOne View Post
Looks like you are shorting on a rising BREAK OUT!!

i'm just doing this (well in this case it's the short version):


Quoting 
A) Price makes new low for the day or is within 20 pips of low of the day

B) Previous candle is green ( 5 min, 15 min or 60 min )

C) Enter at previous candle high

how can i tell this is a breakout? this is timeframe invariant, right? and i didn't get a previous buy signal.


TheRumpledOne View Post
I do not know the stats of the instrument you are trading. If it at the extreme of it's daily range, it may be time to short. Until then, it is breaking out.

the green dashed line in the chart is the daily high. this is 10min ES, but I get similar results for other timeframes & futures (i don't have a forex account).


 
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  #174 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


TheRumpledOne View Post
I am trading FOREX. I post charts/gauges BEFORE/AFTER and you see the results.

No system wins 100% of the time.

DO NOT OVER TRADE!!

i'm not denying your ability to pick trades, i'm just suggesting that there's more to your success than just the strategy that you've outlined here. it's not a simple as you claim. you're not giving your self enough credit.

for one, given that you say there's no such thing as trends, i don't understand how you'd know any of the above trades are part of a breakout. i read this thread quite thoroughly and i didn't see you mention how to do that.

also, i didn't see you mention how to exit profitable trades. can you elaborate? what does the rat do?

 
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  #175 (permalink)
piersh
California
 
 
Posts: 87 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 120 received


TheRumpledOne View Post
Backtesting is a WASTE OF TIME! It is just another TRADING MYTH. It sounds good. "Everybody says to do it".

AND THAT IS ANOTHER REASON WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE!!

if i can backtest a rat that always turns left, then i should be able to backtest this, right?

if it's a simple as you say, it should stand up under backtesting.

 
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  #176 (permalink)
 sam028 
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Posts: 3,732 since Jun 2009
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piersh View Post
if i can backtest a rat that always turns left, then i should be able to backtest this, right?

if it's a simple as you say, it should stand up under backtesting.


Tsss, Piersh, you don't understand...
Replace the EnterShort() by EnterLong(), and you have a 4 trades/4 winners .

The good thing with these kind of very simple systems is that there are easy to backtest, and it's quite easy to see if they work or not.

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  #177 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009

You have seen my gauges.

One thing I mentioned, MORE THAN ONCE, is that I ONLY GO LONG!

Second thing I mentioned, MORE THAN ONCE, I know what the STATISTICS and FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION tell me about the instruments I trade.

Apparently, your trigger is TOO FAR WAY FROM THE HIGH OF THE DAY.

 
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  #178 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
if i can backtest a rat that always turns left, then i should be able to backtest this, right?

if it's a simple as you say, it should stand up under backtesting.

Most people do NOT know how to backtest properly, not to mention, their data is insufficient.

 
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  #179 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009


piersh View Post
i'm just doing this (well in this case it's the short version):



how can i tell this is a breakout? this is timeframe invariant, right? and i didn't get a previous buy signal.



the green dashed line in the chart is the daily high. this is 10min ES, but I get similar results for other timeframes & futures (i don't have a forex account).


You are trading on the 10 min and my examples show the 5 min.

I WONDER IF THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE?

 
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  #180 (permalink)
 TheRumpledOne 
Tucson, AZ
 
 
Posts: 418 since Aug 2009




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