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New Beginnings: The Journal of a Trader's Journey to Equanimity
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New Beginnings: The Journal of a Trader's Journey to Equanimity

  #101 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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plethora's Avatar
 
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Hey omaha, you live in nocal or socal?
Want to get MWinfrey's system automated?
We can split the fees?

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  #102 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego, California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
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plethora View Post
Hey omaha, you live in nocal or socal?
Want to get MWinfrey's system automated?
We can split the fees?

socal.

Sorry, I don't trust auto systems. Thanks for the offer.

By the way, I don't trade CL, it's way too fast for me. My brain need to be replaced by a core i7 to be able to handle CL.

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  #103 (permalink)
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omaha786 View Post
Really? I never tried to develop an auto strategy. Maybe I should start to try.

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood when I read this post. No problem. Just trying to be courteous.

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  #104 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Tundi View Post
Really!

All you need is a set of rules--with or without indicators--and your strategy can be automated. It's crucial to work with a coder who understands what you need and can communicate with you (PM me for referrals) in your native language to keep development expense reasonable.

Trade with confidence and without psychological mumbo jumbo or stress. Go automated!

I didn't see this post before I replied the other one.

Thank you for your offer. One day I will give a try myself although I haven't done serious programming for more than 10 years.

English is my 6th language behind my native language, fortran, lisp, C/C++ and java

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  #105 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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omaha786 View Post
English is my 6th language behind my native language, fortran, lisp, C/C++ and java

Fortunate for you to be multi-lingual.

Thanks for bringing up the programming subject with Tundi;
I would have been too shy.

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  #106 (permalink)
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plethora View Post
Haha. That rule is music to my ears. But may I ask you one question, thatguy? Is there any point at which I stop trading after a specific number of losses? Or do I forget that rule too and just do my best?

Only you can answer that. I know how much I am willing to lose per day and stop after that. In my case I do stop after three losses. The maximum I can lose a day is if I start with the three losses. Otherwise I can have W, W, L, W, W, L, L and I am out with 4 winners and 3 losses. This also forced me to be more selective and I rarely have more than 5 trades a day.

What I did was manually backtesting and documented all the trades for a period of 6 months and then use this data to calculate results for different scenarios, for example:
Stop after 2 losses in a row.
Stop after 3 losses in a row.
Stop after 2 losses total for the day.
Stop after 3 losses total for the day.
Stop after x wins for the day
Stop after x trades for the day.
etc...

What I found is that stopping after 3 losses for the day resulted in the best results for me. I also don't want to lose more than twice on one day what my average winning day is. For example if I know my average winning day is 20 ticks, I don't want to lose more than 40 in one day. That way I know I can make it up after two winning days. If you allow yourself to lose 100 ticks a day, you will need 5 winning days in a row to break even again. I find this depressing to know I just blew a whole week or more of profitable days in one day. You might be ok with that. You just need to decide what you are comfortable with.

If you want to evaluate your peformance, you cannot add or remove rules every day depending on how the day went. Before you know, you end up with something completely different than what you started off with and you decide that the system doesn't work and off you went to the next one and you repeat the process all over.

Of course, this is just my opinion. In end you have to do what feels right to you and what someone else tell you to do.

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  #107 (permalink)
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thatguy View Post
Can I suggest another rule? "No new rules until you trade the current rule set for at least 2 weeks." If you add new rules every day, you are constantly evaluating a moving target.

I agree. Create your plan. Then, follow it every day and grade yourself on how well you followed it. Do not grade yourself on profit/loss, rather if you have a rule "only trade in direction of sma 21" then grade yourself A-F on how well you did that today. Same for your over trading rule (3 trades per day), grade of A-F for following the rule.

Then at the end of a two week period, you are allowed to make 2 and only 2 changes to your chart/rules. If you change from SMA 21 to SMA 50, that is one change. If you change from 6 range to 6 renko, that is one change. Keep the changes minimal and gradual so can you have a chance to properly evaluate how they are effecting your trading.

Once you start to master portions of your plan, you can move on to new areas after identifying your weakest points to focus on, which will be apparent after re-reading your journal every week or two.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #108 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Platform: NinjaTrader
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Posts: 639 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,174 given, 422 received

Thank you, thatguy and Big Mike--

Your posts were unexpected and immensely helpful.

Three losing trades in a row are as much as I should stomach, because any more, and I begin to revenge trade, which has no limits. That said, I will defer this new rule until the end of the two-week Sim trading period, as you suggested, Mike.

With respect to grading myself, I will use a Pass/Fail grading system as I already harbor a lot of judgement surrounding my trading capabilities.

Today, I passed. I did not take a single trade on the Sim. I watched the charts like a hawk and observed my feelings when I wanted to take a trade but hesitated. Someone on MWinfrey's thread, I forget his name, said he keeps a journal close by his side and records how he feels when he enters a trade. I would like to do that, too.

In addition to watching the CL chart intently I rewrote my rules to be coded for an automated strategy. I was amazed how quickly and clearly and confidently I was able to commit those rules to paper, quite succinctly, I must add. The experience made me realize that my chief trading issue is executing the trade as I see it setup. I'm simply not quick enough physically. I'm unable to react with the speed that the situation demands. Additionally, my confidence is lacking.

But today I give myself a passing grade for being aware that I was unable to act sufficiently quickly, and once I missed those real setups I didn't manufacture trades setups that weren't on the chart.

Great day and very much looking forward to having an automated trading strategy.

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  #109 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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plethora View Post
very much looking forward to having an automated trading strategy.

I strongly encourage you to take the automation slowly. If you are like most people, you will jump head first into the automation process and start cranking out dozens of changes, adding "filters". Take it extremely slow, remember that backtesting is basically worthless in terms of the net profit result and is really only useful in terms of "did the strategy do what you thought it would on this bar?"....

My advice would be to not pursue the automation route and just focus on discretionary trading. But that's just me. There are plenty on the forum who disagree with me. Anyway, good luck with it -- and I encourage you journal about it and any changes you make to it for the same reasons you would do so for a discretionary journal.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #110 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Rithmic
Favorite Futures: GC
 
plethora's Avatar
 
Posts: 639 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,174 given, 422 received



Big Mike View Post
I strongly encourage you to take the automation slowly. If you are like most people, you will jump head first into the automation process and start cranking out dozens of changes, adding "filters". Take it extremely slow, remember that backtesting is basically worthless in terms of the net profit result and is really only useful in terms of "did the strategy do what you thought it would on this bar?"....

My advice would be to not pursue the automation route and just focus on discretionary trading. But that's just me. There are plenty on the forum who disagree with me. Anyway, good luck with it -- and I encourage you journal about it and any changes you make to it for the same reasons you would do so for a discretionary journal.

Mike

Much appreciation for your thoughts about the minefields I can stumble into. I kind of intuited that I could fall into the trap you describe and for this reason have limited the entire strategy to thee moving averages. Even though I'd like one other indicator to keep me out of the "chop" limiting the trading hours might be a solution. I'm keeping the strategy simple because I do not know better or more. So my lack of experience and knowledge may actually help me out here by not cluttering the automation with indicators. Also, I believe the simplicity will increase the probability that the programmer will successfully create an automation that is able to, as you say, "do what you thought it would on the bar" and what I can't do quickly enough.

I will continue to document my progress in both automated and my discretionary trading as you suggest. Your encouragement is more than words can say. Thank you.

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