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Big Mike's CL (crude oil) journal


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Big Mike's CL (crude oil) journal

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  #21 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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Hey Mike can you post some trades real time? It'd be helpful to compare our trades as they're happening.

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  #22 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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cunparis View Post
Hey Mike can you post some trades real time? It'd be helpful to compare our trades as they're happening.

I do make some calls in chat but haven't had much time lately, I'll try to at least do some new journals, videos and blogs soon. I've been meaning to get those updated.

Mike

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  #23 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Lately I've been posting in the general CL thread, here.

I've not updated the journal in a while due to lack of time, but it is not forgotten and I definitely trade better when using a journal.

Mike

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  #24 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Well here is an update.

I threw out all the indicators and traded nothing but a 5 minute chart this week. No range chart, no volume chart, no tick chart.

Ended the week with about 280 ticks with 2 cars, 46 trades, 67% win rate. Much to improve upon, but overall I am pleased with the trades.

Here is my chart for today.

The EMA(20) is the only moving average, the rest of the lines are support/resistance lines. The paintbar study is just based on Close of prior bar vs current bar. There is nothing magical here, it's all based on price action.



Why did I switch to a 5m chart? Because it's my belief that the big boys are using nothing less than a 5m chart. Most are in fact using 60m and daily charts, imo. It's also my belief that a range chart, while great at some things, has one hugely lacking problem -- there is nothing on a range chart that drives price action. Why? Because the markets are mostly automated by computer strategies, mostly ran by institutional traders, which mostly trade a 5m or larger chart.

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  #25 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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BTW, for those following me for a long time, you'll know that for over a year I've used range charts almost exclusively. I'm not saying you can't make money using them. But I am saying it's so much easier to make money using a 5m chart instead, but you've got to do it all based on price action. If you try to do it based on indicators, you'll lose your ass in a big way.

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  #26 (permalink)
 cory 
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Finally, the truth! congrats!

 
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  #27 (permalink)
 gio5959 
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a 5min chart? - gee, i wonder who almost always posts only a 5min chart but, of the es

have a good one big mike

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  #28 (permalink)
 suchen 
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i agree mike, when I do trade the cl, i actually trade off a 15 min chart...

 
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  #29 (permalink)
 MXASJ 
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Big Mike View Post
BTW, for those following me for a long time, you'll know that for over a year I've used range charts almost exclusively. I'm not saying you can't make money using them. But I am saying it's so much easier to make money using a 5m chart instead, but you've got to do it all based on price action. If you try to do it based on indicators, you'll lose your ass in a big way.

Mike

Man that is honest... but is it YOU that has changed or the MARKET? I've pretty much stopped making money on ZN range bar trades... but chasing HH and LL where any volatility can be found is working. I'm convinced price action has changed since roughly Q2 this year, but the only quantitative measure I can use to back that up is a drop in ATR. I'm considering a new sign for the office door;

"Check Your Macro Opinions At The Door"

In the end, it's price.

 
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  #30 (permalink)
 cunparis 
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MXASJ View Post
Man that is honest... but is it YOU that has changed or the MARKET? I've pretty much stopped making money on ZN range bar trades... but chasing HH and LL where any volatility can be found is working. I'm convinced price action has changed since roughly Q2 this year, but the only quantitative measure I can use to back that up is a drop in ATR. I'm considering a new sign for the office door;

I totally agree with this. I don't have much proof but I can offer this:

I worked hard on a trading plan in March & April, doing tons of manual backtesting and sim. In May I went live with real money on ES using tick charts. May - July 14 I was very profitable, winning 68% of my trades. Then in July disaster struck. Nothing worked. In July - Sept I gave back 1/2 of what I made in the prior months and I stopped. I was only using 1 price indicator and it had no moving averages or anything else that I could optimize, and it just drew S/R lines so nothing magical there.

In Sept & October I started trading with 5 min charts without any indicators, taking breakouts of S/R. It worked. Now in mid Oct I'm revisting my old strategy but I can't make it work on tick charts any more. But interesting enough, it does seem to work on 5min. VERY WELL.

I went back to the tick charts, disaster again. I'm talking CL, Euro, & ES. Back to minute charts. Success.

So maybe it'd be vain to say the market changed, I most likely changed too (I stopped doing daily perfect trading charts, keeping a journal, etc.). But I really think something happened. And early October CME changed the reporting method so tick charts are not the same. Not sure if this affects NYMEX or not.

Now I use 5min as my main trading chart, with 1 min sometimes for timing, and 15 min for trend.

Range charts compress too much. You can't see all the trading ranges (dojis) and consolidation, etc. It kept me from reading price action.

Finally, on CL 5min, there are often 30-40 tick bars. I don't trade during these times cause I always put my stop under a swing low and with a couple 30-40 tick bars that means a stop of 30+ ticks. So I just sit out. Before I'd drop down to tick charts to try and trade it but that's futile. Anything less than 5min is noise.

Mike - I'm very glad to see an almost indicator free chart. You're an inspiration.

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