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TF day trading


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TF day trading

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  #1 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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I have attached my indicators on a later post. I now use NT7 over TradeStation as it is free, and I really like chart trading as well as some of the other features. I am not LIVE again yet! Not until I can be more effective with NT7.
--------ORIGINAL 1st POST ---------
Hi all,

Here is my journal.

Today:

1.2 points on TF (SIM) in first 3 minutes of market open, caught a bit of separation on the smaller timeframes, exited a little early on a pullback as there was another 15 or so ticks left in the run. Last night it hit my 50% target on the higher time-frame and why I didn't hit that really nice long Friday! Friday it missed my target by 3 ticks and it jumped after that. Let it go....

First day back on the simulator since I have been watching charts for the last 6 weeks after having a bad August. My trading has been sporadic with 40-50 ticks some days average per contract to -40 or -50 ticks!

Time to move it to the more profitable side.

I use a simple (NEXGEN) type setup using Price Action & Fibs heavily.

Today I did not stop trading and was playing with the Simulator to get reacquainted.

Tomorrow, let's see what the day brings.

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 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on starting a journal!

I look forward to your posts.

Mike

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  #4 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Congratulations on starting a journal!

I look forward to your posts.

Mike

Thank you Mike. I am enjoying the forum.

Well, it looks like the the most 'profitable' trades today weren't super clear using my system. It was an up day with some popping and days like this can cost you if you do not move your stops to BE + 1. Since I counter-trend trade, hitting the pivots can be dangerous on days like this, so it is important to get super-clear entries on larger time frames which I ignored.

I had several 1pt (10 tick on TF) trade opportunities, but very little on the short side. Some nice breakouts on the 1597 and 4181, but considering the daily, I did expect a retracement today. I only take trades where 25 - 35 ticks are likely.

I am thinking that there will be a nice drop tonight (already was at close of market) for a continuation down. I believe there is a big short coming which could put us anywhere from 697 --> 691.6 (61% retracement)

I was expecting us to get to the 721.20 area (88% retracement area), but we could drop before we get there, so maybe not this time.

So, if we go long, target is 718 - 721 before a retrace, and if we go short, 697 - 691 is the target.

Due to the fast run up, the MACD's have but no choice to create significant divergence. There will be a ton of support at 700 roughly (I do not use Market Profile any longer as I think it is about as capable as any other indicator) and considering the news tomorrow then I think that it could move quite a bit!

It is exciting to do this every day.

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 bluemele 
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bluemele View Post

I am thinking that there will be a nice drop tonight (already was at close of market) for a continuation down. I believe there is a big short coming which could put us anywhere from 697 --> 691.6 (61% retracement)

Ok, so what can I say, I was right and wrong. We hit my target of 691.6 where it is finding all kinds of support at the moment. However, I NEVER expected it to run back up and almost fill the gap after a good drop this morning. What a move, but too choppy for me to enjoy it.

I am thinking that in the future I will be adding a strategy #2 that will enable me to trend trade daily. I know very little as this is my focus, but typical breakouts using common sense and small stops may be in order.

It was a very technical day, hitting areas and bouncing quickly. I had a great setup on the 1597 to go long, but I couldn't get filled (EVEN ON SIM!), so I let it go. I would have rode that boy for at least 3 points and I also let a good trade come back and knock me out at BE + 1 after a nice 2 points.

All-n-all, a profitable day, 1.65 points (16.5 ticks) which includes commission estimates ($5.00 per R/T, but reality it is around $4.66).

I took WAAAAYYYYY to many trades in a specific area, as I believed there was more down. I got chopped up with small stops and I just didn't expect that slow move up. Moves like this is where I make a profitable day into a negative day.

I also let a great pre-market trade not run its course. I was just getting up and coming back as the market was slow and I didn't give it time to breathe.

Tomorrow will be a great trading day!

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 bluemele 
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Ok, price is currently heading north. This will probably stop around the 50% retracement or the 61% retracement which is 698.30 and 700.7 respectively.

I believe this is in a longer trend down as it hit the 23%, pulled back, 38%, pulling back right now and we will head to the 50% on the larger fib. However, it just nearly missed the 50% and if I used a pullback instead of the pivot, maybe it was the turn-around point.

If we head over 700, then I believe the next big resistance area will be 706.1 and then of course 710 area.

Obviously, if we pass those, we will probably head for the full extension as previously noted to 718+.

I do believe we have broken the trend and this is a pullback, so only time will tell. The weekly has nice separation on the MACD and it had one heck of a run up.

From a fundamental perspective, I believe this is the bait before the drop. This happens on fast and long trends, where the big money will lure the suckers into investing. Then, when all the asset managers with stupid money jumps in, they pull the rug out. Seems like a favorite routine to make $$ and if you are on the inside, then just a game of musical chairs.

Tomorrow I will focus on my DOM being 'real' and I should have all my 'bugs' and cobwebs worked out of my brain. haha...

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 bluemele 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, price is currently heading north. This will probably stop around the 50% retracement or the 61% retracement which is 698.30 and 700.7 respectively.

OK, typed in the wrong # into the thread, but it hit the 50% retracement perfectly by the TICK!

It then went short, so I was thinking more down when I jumped into trading this morning.

Trades

#1, went short, quickly exited for a BE + 1

#2, long, nice trade, however I saw some weakness and right when I jumped out the TF dropped 5 ticks very quickly. I felt shorts were the better entry early morning, but I exited this about 5 ticks too early. +7tks

#3, Stochastics and separation on MACDBB's was really nice. -1 tks

#4, No fill! Just missed it and it stayed on my price for a few seconds.

#5, I saw it as a pullback, I thought it was going to be a strong down. However, my 4181 MACD didn't say that!

#6, No fill, good looking bar setup, moved too quickly for my slow fingers.

#7, I thought it was another pullback to more down. -3 tks

#8, Same as #7, but set BE. Ok, now I am realizing that I have WAAAAYYYY too many trades!

#9, 5 tk gift, not good thinking on this one...

#10, Good entry, good trade in my opinion. I was a little late to the party though, so that is why I set it to be + 1 after it went 6 ticks in my favor, then knocked me out for being too cautious.

#11, this was a good looking entry, good bar setup, nice 23% pullback, etc.. However, the 144 MACD was telling me to get the hell out and by the time I clicked the price jumped very quickly and went from a BE trade to -5 tks.

#12, I thought this was it. It faked me out, ok, next...

#13, Perfect! A little late, but I wanted the better bar setup! I got entered after the bar closed and actually on the next bar. The issue is my trade management. I knew it was going down further, however I didn't want to give up any tks since I am trading only one contract. Had I traded two, I would have scaled one here and held the 2nd.

#14, 200MA, Keltner, nice separation coming from underneath on MACD's... Cautious though because of momentum down.

#15, Being cautious, I figured this would go, but after a few bars of sticking around, I decided a BE might not be a bad idea.

#16, this was a good trade, went for +8 tks, then came back and knocked me out when I sent to BE + 1.

#17, I was ready for the retracement. When I saw the bar setup, then It sang to me to enter. I exited as this looked weak, it was at the 50/200 MA's, 50% retracement area and general overall weakness. Scaled out a wee bit early.

Historically trading, the only trades that I could choose to take are:

#2, except ride it to fruition
#4, but exit on trendline
#10/#13 and just held it with 5 tk stop. These trades looked really really nice.

The market filled the gap and then bounced NORTH. So, I expect it to continue up until the 718+ area. I am guessing we will not get there today, so probably tomorrow will be a day of longs. I definitely had short on my mind.

I will focus on taking less trades for more points. I am being too aggressive and I will decide to "let go".

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  #8 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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Ok, what will tomorrow bring?

"I see short people on the CL!" -- I would only focus on shorts tomorrow unless something changes.

TF should come down to 50% retracement @ 687.35 and most likely deeper into 674.50

My target for tomorrow will most likely be shorts unless the market moves quickly tonight which would cause a pullback on tomorrows market.

We shall see.


With CL, I expect it to come up a little tonight and then drop some tomorrow. I do expect more retracement down, but it seems the market is moving a lot tonight.

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 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
I will focus on taking less trades for more points. I am being too aggressive and I will decide to "let go".

Sounds like a good plan. Some days there are reasons to take many trades. But most days, I would say a handful of trades (5 ish) should be enough. It all depends on your method, naturally. Personally I find myself more and more focused on "stepping back" a bit, looking at things a bit wider, so I can take fewer trades for more ticks.

Mike

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 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, what will tomorrow bring?

Don't know, don't care (not in terms of how to trade).

Don't allow yourself to form a bias of what the market "should" be doing. Just focus on what the market "is" doing. I used to say "anticipate, but do not predict". The point is you should be prepared, you should know exactly what will trigger a position in/out, but you should not care one way or the other if it is long or short, up or down, and don't worry about what happens tomorrow --- not if you are a scalper or day trader. Swing trader, sure

Mike

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