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TF day trading

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  #1 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I have attached my indicators on a later post. I now use NT7 over TradeStation as it is free, and I really like chart trading as well as some of the other features. I am not LIVE again yet! Not until I can be more effective with NT7.
--------ORIGINAL 1st POST ---------
Hi all,

Here is my journal.

Today:

1.2 points on TF (SIM) in first 3 minutes of market open, caught a bit of separation on the smaller timeframes, exited a little early on a pullback as there was another 15 or so ticks left in the run. Last night it hit my 50% target on the higher time-frame and why I didn't hit that really nice long Friday! Friday it missed my target by 3 ticks and it jumped after that. Let it go....

First day back on the simulator since I have been watching charts for the last 6 weeks after having a bad August. My trading has been sporadic with 40-50 ticks some days average per contract to -40 or -50 ticks!

Time to move it to the more profitable side.

I use a simple (NEXGEN) type setup using Price Action & Fibs heavily.

Today I did not stop trading and was playing with the Simulator to get reacquainted.

Tomorrow, let's see what the day brings.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Congratulations on starting a journal!

I look forward to your posts.

Mike

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  #4 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Congratulations on starting a journal!

I look forward to your posts.

Mike

Thank you Mike. I am enjoying the forum.

Well, it looks like the the most 'profitable' trades today weren't super clear using my system. It was an up day with some popping and days like this can cost you if you do not move your stops to BE + 1. Since I counter-trend trade, hitting the pivots can be dangerous on days like this, so it is important to get super-clear entries on larger time frames which I ignored.

I had several 1pt (10 tick on TF) trade opportunities, but very little on the short side. Some nice breakouts on the 1597 and 4181, but considering the daily, I did expect a retracement today. I only take trades where 25 - 35 ticks are likely.

I am thinking that there will be a nice drop tonight (already was at close of market) for a continuation down. I believe there is a big short coming which could put us anywhere from 697 --> 691.6 (61% retracement)

I was expecting us to get to the 721.20 area (88% retracement area), but we could drop before we get there, so maybe not this time.

So, if we go long, target is 718 - 721 before a retrace, and if we go short, 697 - 691 is the target.

Due to the fast run up, the MACD's have but no choice to create significant divergence. There will be a ton of support at 700 roughly (I do not use Market Profile any longer as I think it is about as capable as any other indicator) and considering the news tomorrow then I think that it could move quite a bit!

It is exciting to do this every day.

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 bluemele 
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bluemele View Post

I am thinking that there will be a nice drop tonight (already was at close of market) for a continuation down. I believe there is a big short coming which could put us anywhere from 697 --> 691.6 (61% retracement)

Ok, so what can I say, I was right and wrong. We hit my target of 691.6 where it is finding all kinds of support at the moment. However, I NEVER expected it to run back up and almost fill the gap after a good drop this morning. What a move, but too choppy for me to enjoy it.

I am thinking that in the future I will be adding a strategy #2 that will enable me to trend trade daily. I know very little as this is my focus, but typical breakouts using common sense and small stops may be in order.

It was a very technical day, hitting areas and bouncing quickly. I had a great setup on the 1597 to go long, but I couldn't get filled (EVEN ON SIM!), so I let it go. I would have rode that boy for at least 3 points and I also let a good trade come back and knock me out at BE + 1 after a nice 2 points.

All-n-all, a profitable day, 1.65 points (16.5 ticks) which includes commission estimates ($5.00 per R/T, but reality it is around $4.66).

I took WAAAAYYYYY to many trades in a specific area, as I believed there was more down. I got chopped up with small stops and I just didn't expect that slow move up. Moves like this is where I make a profitable day into a negative day.

I also let a great pre-market trade not run its course. I was just getting up and coming back as the market was slow and I didn't give it time to breathe.

Tomorrow will be a great trading day!

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 bluemele 
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Ok, price is currently heading north. This will probably stop around the 50% retracement or the 61% retracement which is 698.30 and 700.7 respectively.

I believe this is in a longer trend down as it hit the 23%, pulled back, 38%, pulling back right now and we will head to the 50% on the larger fib. However, it just nearly missed the 50% and if I used a pullback instead of the pivot, maybe it was the turn-around point.

If we head over 700, then I believe the next big resistance area will be 706.1 and then of course 710 area.

Obviously, if we pass those, we will probably head for the full extension as previously noted to 718+.

I do believe we have broken the trend and this is a pullback, so only time will tell. The weekly has nice separation on the MACD and it had one heck of a run up.

From a fundamental perspective, I believe this is the bait before the drop. This happens on fast and long trends, where the big money will lure the suckers into investing. Then, when all the asset managers with stupid money jumps in, they pull the rug out. Seems like a favorite routine to make $$ and if you are on the inside, then just a game of musical chairs.

Tomorrow I will focus on my DOM being 'real' and I should have all my 'bugs' and cobwebs worked out of my brain. haha...

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 bluemele 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, price is currently heading north. This will probably stop around the 50% retracement or the 61% retracement which is 698.30 and 700.7 respectively.

OK, typed in the wrong # into the thread, but it hit the 50% retracement perfectly by the TICK!

It then went short, so I was thinking more down when I jumped into trading this morning.

Trades

#1, went short, quickly exited for a BE + 1

#2, long, nice trade, however I saw some weakness and right when I jumped out the TF dropped 5 ticks very quickly. I felt shorts were the better entry early morning, but I exited this about 5 ticks too early. +7tks

#3, Stochastics and separation on MACDBB's was really nice. -1 tks

#4, No fill! Just missed it and it stayed on my price for a few seconds.

#5, I saw it as a pullback, I thought it was going to be a strong down. However, my 4181 MACD didn't say that!

#6, No fill, good looking bar setup, moved too quickly for my slow fingers.

#7, I thought it was another pullback to more down. -3 tks

#8, Same as #7, but set BE. Ok, now I am realizing that I have WAAAAYYYY too many trades!

#9, 5 tk gift, not good thinking on this one...

#10, Good entry, good trade in my opinion. I was a little late to the party though, so that is why I set it to be + 1 after it went 6 ticks in my favor, then knocked me out for being too cautious.

#11, this was a good looking entry, good bar setup, nice 23% pullback, etc.. However, the 144 MACD was telling me to get the hell out and by the time I clicked the price jumped very quickly and went from a BE trade to -5 tks.

#12, I thought this was it. It faked me out, ok, next...

#13, Perfect! A little late, but I wanted the better bar setup! I got entered after the bar closed and actually on the next bar. The issue is my trade management. I knew it was going down further, however I didn't want to give up any tks since I am trading only one contract. Had I traded two, I would have scaled one here and held the 2nd.

#14, 200MA, Keltner, nice separation coming from underneath on MACD's... Cautious though because of momentum down.

#15, Being cautious, I figured this would go, but after a few bars of sticking around, I decided a BE might not be a bad idea.

#16, this was a good trade, went for +8 tks, then came back and knocked me out when I sent to BE + 1.

#17, I was ready for the retracement. When I saw the bar setup, then It sang to me to enter. I exited as this looked weak, it was at the 50/200 MA's, 50% retracement area and general overall weakness. Scaled out a wee bit early.

Historically trading, the only trades that I could choose to take are:

#2, except ride it to fruition
#4, but exit on trendline
#10/#13 and just held it with 5 tk stop. These trades looked really really nice.

The market filled the gap and then bounced NORTH. So, I expect it to continue up until the 718+ area. I am guessing we will not get there today, so probably tomorrow will be a day of longs. I definitely had short on my mind.

I will focus on taking less trades for more points. I am being too aggressive and I will decide to "let go".

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 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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Ok, what will tomorrow bring?

"I see short people on the CL!" -- I would only focus on shorts tomorrow unless something changes.

TF should come down to 50% retracement @ 687.35 and most likely deeper into 674.50

My target for tomorrow will most likely be shorts unless the market moves quickly tonight which would cause a pullback on tomorrows market.

We shall see.


With CL, I expect it to come up a little tonight and then drop some tomorrow. I do expect more retracement down, but it seems the market is moving a lot tonight.

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 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
I will focus on taking less trades for more points. I am being too aggressive and I will decide to "let go".

Sounds like a good plan. Some days there are reasons to take many trades. But most days, I would say a handful of trades (5 ish) should be enough. It all depends on your method, naturally. Personally I find myself more and more focused on "stepping back" a bit, looking at things a bit wider, so I can take fewer trades for more ticks.

Mike

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 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, what will tomorrow bring?

Don't know, don't care (not in terms of how to trade).

Don't allow yourself to form a bias of what the market "should" be doing. Just focus on what the market "is" doing. I used to say "anticipate, but do not predict". The point is you should be prepared, you should know exactly what will trigger a position in/out, but you should not care one way or the other if it is long or short, up or down, and don't worry about what happens tomorrow --- not if you are a scalper or day trader. Swing trader, sure

Mike

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 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Don't know, don't care (not in terms of how to trade).

Don't allow yourself to form a bias of what the market "should" be doing. Just focus on what the market "is" doing. I used to say "anticipate, but do not predict". The point is you should be prepared, you should know exactly what will trigger a position in/out, but you should not care one way or the other if it is long or short, up or down, and don't worry about what happens tomorrow --- not if you are a scalper or day trader. Swing trader, sure

Mike

Mike,

Very good point! You are 100% right in the 'should' department. Forcing the market is not possible, and honestly, something I think every trader deals with. I do swing trade, however not in futures (FOREX) but they are all related.

I will do my best to 'anticipate' and not predict.

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 bluemele 
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Ok!!! - 2 tks for the day after commissions. (-$20.00)

Well, if I had my way of things (which I do, but I haven't convinced myself of that yet completely!), then I would have made even today a profitable trade.

I didn't see the longs and I though short, short, short.

Trades:

1: +0 ticks, no fill on nice bar setup and a clear long

2: +0 ticks, this trade stayed around too long for a BE, so I closed it at cost of commission

3: -3 ticks, I believed today was a short day (which it did at 11:00) so this was the first of many shorts.

4: +1 ticks, This was a nice drop and I thought I was all clear, was considering closing at 1 pt. as I saw the bounce, but it moved too quickly for me.

5: -3 ticks, too early.

6: -4 ticks, Nice entry, but just poppsed me out! Had I the full 5 tick stop in then I would have been OK.

7: +11 ticks, I saw the short and barely held it through a retrace and it definitely seemed like it was going to do a nice retrace, so I closed it. Had I traded more than 1 contract, I would have held.

8: -3 ticks, I though for sure the MACD's were telling me to go south.

9: -1 ticks, I exited this at breakeven, but it filled me at -1 ticks. Still thinking short.

10: + 5 ticks, exited as retrace seemed large.

11: -1 ticks. From trade 10 to 11, I was confused where all the energy was coming from. It was jumping and popping and there wasn't anymore news on my schedule so I was very confused and stayed out of the market.

I have noticed on the last couple weeks on a down day that the market will actually move up in the NY session, then drop after 10:30, 11:00 or 1pm.

I don't know what that means from a professional money or dumb money standpoint, but it seems to me they are building it up, then letting the steam out for profits? Buy buy buy,.... hehe... ok, everyone isn't watching, SELL SELL SELL!!!

I have been quick to jump on the South movement, but way too early lately. I do not trade all day, so days like this, I don't get the beautiful runs.

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 farmerjohn 
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A comment about your last statement. Have you noticed the shakeouts this weeks in the TF. Just look closely at your chart you posted. There are large shakeouts right before the huge moves all week. Huge volatility this week over weeks past. If you don't get on the train, it's off and will not stop.

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 bluemele 
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farmerjohn View Post
A comment about your last statement. Have you noticed the shakeouts this weeks in the TF. Just look closely at your chart you posted. There are large shakeouts right before the huge moves all week. Huge volatility this week over weeks past. If you don't get on the train, it's off and will not stop.

Yes, exactly. My system doesn't do as well during these types of runs. I limit my losses, but my stops are not big enough to withstand and I have to take lots of itty bitty trade.

I believe the market is showing weakness. Fundamentally, I don't understand why it would be trading so high considering the current spate of news and the reality of the situation. Usually when I think like this, I end up seeing a big retracement at the end of the rainbow.

The daily is saying it could go north, but most likely headed down. If it runs tonight up, then I am pretty certain that I will be going to be looking for shorts tomorrow. It could do a nice trendline bounce down FROM around 704-ish.

My 50K tick chart is telling me UP!

4181 is up but weak
1597 is down strong

Tomorrow is another day

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 bluemele 
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Yes, TGIS = "Thank God I am SIM"

+8 ticks today on 1 contract SIM

two issues with my trading:

1. Stop trading bar setups on 144 tick, it is most times worthless unless all my other signs are a go!

2. Stop pulling the trigger every 5 seconds and forcing an area.

My wife did very well today up +30 ticks and after +15 yesterday she is much smoother and going back to live very soon.

Trades:

1. +1 tick, wow, talk about a poor timing to close it, but I thought it was going to bounce me out. My wife held it.

2. +1 tick, knocked me out then went south again, but after that I probably would have been +1 anyways.

3. -4 ticks, I was thinking short and I had a nice bar setup, but MACD's were telling me wait!

4. -1 tick, same, bar setup, but MACD's saying WAIT!

5. +0 ticks, this looked decent to me, but 610 tick MACD was saying wait.

6. -3 ticks, I wasn't even looking at my indicators. Stuck at looking at chart and forcing area.

7. -4 ticks, SEE Trade #6!

8. +14 ticks, Decent trade, but the real pivot was just before that when it exited the Keltner channel but I was too busy marking up my gifts! I exited perfectly though.

9. -5 ticks, this knocked me out in a matter of seconds, mostly off the nice bar setup I had and that is not my trading style.

10. +15 ticks, Ok, this was a mediocre trade. WHY, it was my most profitable. Because I didn't scale/exit properly. This was screaming short, and there was more here, but because I am only trading one contract, it was too hard for me to stay in after it hit the 50% retracement and the slowdown, and the keltner midpoint and some separation from MACDBB on smaller timeframes. I would have held this for at least another 1.8 ticks had I been trading properly.

All-n-all, not a bad week. My new rules of stopping after either 3 gifts or -150.00 has worked well for me. In August I had a few 8 gifts in a row that hurt my profits as I was revenge trading! haha...

I saw glimmers of revenge trading today (just a hint) and also a bit of "I don't want to miss it" and with a sprinkle of "This IS the area!".

My current goal is to be +2 points daily before I go live for at least 2 months. From my current trading situation, this seems a bit far out. However, in June I was about 1.8/1.9 per day for over a month.

My wife will go live after 1 point per day for a month. We could sure use the success!


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 bluemele 
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Ok, due to poor trading early on, I broke today into 2 days for more sim time.

Day 1 = -1.55 points (-15.5 ticks)
Day 2 = +.55 points (+5.5 ticks)
Total = -1.00 points (-10 ticks)

I am over-trading! Current market conditions are not ideal for my technique, so I am ending up with a lot of trades and little in return.

The market has been moving almost identically for the last several days. UP UP UP, then @ 10:30 or 11:00 roughly the market falls out nicely. I would have taken the short @ 10:28, however, market was moving too slow for me so I decided to stop for the day.

Trades:

#1: +1 ticks, Premarket, looked good, but got filled 3 ticks below as I couldn't get filled, volume was really light.
#2: -3 ticks, again taking the bar setup a bit too serious.
#3: -3 ticks, thought this was a pullack for more down.
#4: -5 ticks, outside keltner, 50% area on fib, as good as any area.
#5, -1 ticks, looked great, but market just didn't want to go down so I exited.
#6, -3 ticks, again with the bar setup! Market didn't go down, exited on own.
-- AT THIS POINT, I REACHED MY THRESHOLD OF TRADING FOR THE DAY, STARTING NEW DAY
#7, + 1 tick, it didn't want to drop, so I exited.
#8, -3 ticks, looked good on MACD's, but not an area.
#9, -5 ticks, this is the same as #8 trade, I actually pressed short at the top of the bar @ 712, but it dropped quickly on me and I got filled below. Today was a challenge with jumping and fills.
#10, +0, same @s #8,#9, looked good on MACD's, but moved to BE when separation occurred on 144.
#11, +14 ticks, News was moving the market again as Existing Home Sales exceeded expectations. I was lucky to get into this one as the market was moving quite quick. I would have held had I traded more than 1 contract.
#12, +0, No fill, this was a good looking retrace and refill. However, I couldn't get filled as the bar dropped just after I pressed enter and it did come back up and retrace, but I chickened out.

Ok, so 12 trades! I actually had a couple of extra trades that didn't get filled or I canceled. They wouldn't have really made much either. My wife did well with +0. haha... She took one trade and it hit her stop @ BE.

I am way too eager to trade. My focus for tomorrow will to watch several good trades go and not click. My # of trades could be a max of 2-3 for a very lucrative trading day.

Weekly is on the rail, daily is forming a bear flag (MACD's), 50K is looking bullish but could drop for a nice bear flag, 4181 & 1597 are unclear at this time. I will check back in at close of market to evaluate what I believe the market wants to show me for tomorrow.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, looking at the charts tonight. Low volume again, and it seems like it likes the range from 690-710.

The longer it stalls out, the longer that my MACD's will show divergence or more of it. So, either:

A) The market is stalling out for a big push coming.

B) The market is stalling for a massive fall.

Either way, I do not care as my trading is neutral.

Weekly = on the rail, looking long but with some separation evident
Daily = short or weak and creating a bear flag, but still up in trend.
50K = Nice bear flag OR, a drop and then a nice big pop North is possible.
4181/1597 tick = long tonight but trend is down.

TF followed same pattern. Run up in morning, fall out in afternoon.

Wow. I just did the same exact thing over and over expecting different results. I guess that is good as I am consistent!

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 bluemele 
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-10.5 ticks for the day including commissions.

I think I know what I am doing wrong with my trading this week. I am not focusing enough on what the longer term charts are telling me. I have been counter-trend trading now for over week and it is not working well for me.

I am cutting my winners but also cutting my losers quickly which is what is saving me. I woke up late this morning and had issues with charts downloading data. I didn't set up a story for my trading today which is always a losing proposition.

Trades:

#1 -4 ticks double bottom area, and I thought it would retrace to the 50% fib.
#2 +11 ticks, this was a good trend continuation trade as I was having problems with my charts on the longer time frame.
#3 -1 tick, I thought we would continue back down, so this is as good a place as any.
#4 -2 ticks, before news, stalled out market, and I realized that this was probably going North after a bar or two.
#5 -2 ticks, outside keltner, nice top but the 'head' knocked me out.
#6 -6 ticks, same as last trade, but this blew by my stop.
#7 -3 ticks, Again, thinking short. 1597 and 4181 were saying more up, but I completely ignored them!

Too many trades, ignoring long term time frames, and not creating a story for prediction of what I will do in advance. Also, was not taking my trades in major areas.

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 aviat72 
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One of the best TF traders I know is a moderator on Hamzei Analytics HFT chat room. She has had some webinars which are available on their website. She is an always in trader who often takes between 10-20 points (100-200 ticks) per contract every day.

This is FYI only. Everyone has their own style but she is good, really good.

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  #20 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
-10.5 ticks for the day including commissions.

I think I know what I am doing wrong with my trading this week. I am not focusing enough on what the longer term charts are telling me. I have been counter-trend trading now for over week and it is not working well for me.

I am cutting my winners but also cutting my losers quickly which is what is saving me. I woke up late this morning and had issues with charts downloading data. I didn't set up a story for my trading today which is always a losing proposition.

Ok, so stop for a moment, look around, take a deep breath.

If you've identified this as your biggest problem, then the next step is for you to kraft a specific action plan to combat the problem. You need to be very specific. To get you going, you might consider putting a post-it note on your monitor next to your DOM that says "WHAT DO THE LONGER TERM CHARTS SAY??". Without knowing your specific method I can't give you more than that, but the point is to write a memorable message. You need to also write something like "IF YOU TRADE AGAINST THE BIGGER PICTURE, YOU ARE AN IDIOT" or whatever floats your boat. The point here is you need a reminder of what NOT following your rules looks like, what it does, what it causes.

Then work on this item or two items every single day for a two week period. Grade yourself daily on how well you executed on these two "post it note" items that you come up with. Don't worry about the net result of the trade itself, just focus on execution. The goal is at the end of the two week period you can look back and say this is now no longer your problem, and you move on to another problem.

I also strongly suggest reading the last two weeks of your journal, post by post, trade by trade, at the end of each week. It will help you reflect and determine if you are running in circles or actually going somewhere

Mike

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  #21 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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Big Mike View Post
Ok, so stop for a moment, look around, take a deep breath.

To get you going, you might consider putting a post-it note on your monitor next to your DOM that says "WHAT DO THE LONGER TERM CHARTS SAY??". Without knowing your specific method I can't give you more than that, but the point is to write a memorable message. You need to also write something like "IF YOU TRADE AGAINST THE BIGGER PICTURE, YOU ARE AN IDIOT" or whatever floats your boat. The point here is you need a reminder of what NOT following your rules looks like, what it does, what it causes.

I have a trade check list for each of my setups, kind of like a pilot's check list. When I see a trade forming, I run down my check list for that setup. There are times when I over ride something (usually get burned), but it helps a lot.

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 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Ok, so stop for a moment, look around, take a deep breath.

If you've identified this as your biggest problem, then the next step is for you to kraft a specific action plan to combat the problem. You need to be very specific. To get you going, you might consider putting a post-it note on your monitor next to your DOM that says "WHAT DO THE LONGER TERM CHARTS SAY??". Without knowing your specific method I can't give you more than that, but the point is to write a memorable message. You need to also write something like "IF YOU TRADE AGAINST THE BIGGER PICTURE, YOU ARE AN IDIOT" or whatever floats your boat. The point here is you need a reminder of what NOT following your rules looks like, what it does, what it causes.

Then work on this item or two items every single day for a two week period. Grade yourself daily on how well you executed on these two "post it note" items that you come up with. Don't worry about the net result of the trade itself, just focus on execution. The goal is at the end of the two week period you can look back and say this is now no longer your problem, and you move on to another problem.

I also strongly suggest reading the last two weeks of your journal, post by post, trade by trade, at the end of each week. It will help you reflect and determine if you are running in circles or actually going somewhere

Mike


Mike,

Great advice, and I stopped reading my 'rules' before I trade.

1. This is my business, I love it and it helps me prosper and gives me the opportunities that I choose to create.

2. I choose to be patient, loving and agreeable to what the market is willing to show me.

3. I choose to only trade in areas of high correlation or importance in which increases my chance to communicate respectfully with the market.

4. I choose to be patient and wait for the proper signals to execute my strategy.

5. I will stop trading if I am -3 gifts sum for the day.

6. I will reevaluate each days trading and find perfect trades for a better perspective.

7. I will only trade if I am mentally and physically capable of good performance.

Thanks for reminding me.

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 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
I have a trade check list for each of my setups, kind of like a pilot's check list. When I see a trade forming, I run down my check list for that setup. There are times when I over ride something (usually get burned), but it helps a lot.

Yes, I can see using some techniques that it works very well. I am trading poorly as I am not doing the things I have done in the past for success.

I record each days session using HyperCam and capturing both screens with DOM. This helps me figure out what I do wrong and what I am thinking. I notice that when I am trading poorly that I am not talking or educating myself as the trades go along. The best trading I have done is when I do the following:

1. Read my rules
2. Proper time for prep, setup
3. Have a story, so if market goes long, then this this this, if short, 1..2..3.. etc..
4. Talk through what each indicator is telling me and price action and understand as a student/teacher would see it.

I did none of those today. "I think it is short.." "I think it is long..."...

Terrible, but changeable.

The challenges with a checklist is that this system is HIGHLY discretionary. When you are on it and stay on it, you can easily pull 10 points a day out of the market and every pivot is clear. However, when you go blank like me... well.. You end up BE or slightly negative...

Thanks for the reminders and I love this game.

--EDIT: I used to have a checklist that if 610 wasn't looking good, then I am not going in. I have long stopped doing that and that is probably why I am getting eaten.

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 bluemele 
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aviat72 View Post
One of the best TF traders I know is a moderator on Hamzei Analytics HFT chat room. She has had some webinars which are available on their website. She is an always in trader who often takes between 10-20 points (100-200 ticks) per contract every day.

This is FYI only. Everyone has their own style but she is good, really good.

Thank you! I will check it out, but I have gone through 100's of systems, 1,000's of indicators and I basically come back to how the market feels to me more than indicators. Sometimes I am grooving and other times, out of groove.

I am always open to learn from others.

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 bluemele 
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Well, -1.3 points (-$130.00) after commission on SIM today.

I am not sure two days couldn't look more alike than yesterday and today on the TF. Of course, I did the same thing:

1. I wasn't talking to myself.

2. I set up confluent areas but ignored them!

3. I didn't stay focused on my trading and revenge traded 3 times.

Trades:

1. -3 ticks, I knew this was a bit dangerous, but I could see it popping from here. Nice separation on BB/MACD and a support area with trendline, but on the wrong side of it. Expecting possible 50% retracement.

2. +1 tick, this I though for sure was going to be a winner. It moved 11 ticks in my favor and then in one fell swoop hit my stop on the nose and went running off to give others profit!

3. -3 ticks, this was my first revenge trade of the day. It was a 50% retracement and nothing else really, but wanted it to go down! haha... My plan was that there was a bear flag on 50K and daily with some separation now building on weekly.

4. No FILL, and happy I didn't. I canceled it quickly.

5. No FILL, I thought this was going to go down, but support was too strong.

6. -2 ticks, this was a retracement off the area for the last trade I believed and a fib area.

7. No FILL, and this moved too quickly for me to get filled. I was looking @ 200MA and keltner aligning. However, the GAP close for the day (blue line) was still a half point away, so I knew it was high risk.

8. -2 ticks, Nice bar setup, MACD's looking weak! However, they sat there for quite a while and no movement and I was thinking that this will retrace so I exited right before it dropped.

9. -5 ticks, REVENGE TRADE! I WILL GET ON THAT SHORT NO MATTER WHAT!

---- Started new day as I reached my threshold (-1.75 for that day)

10. -2 ticks, stupid. emotional, lost focus!

11. --5 ticks. Same @s last trade.

12. +12 ticks, this was a decent trade and had I held it with 5 tick stop would have paid off nicely. This was right after some news and the second it dropped, many of the MACD's had separation to head back up so I exited.

13. +1 tick, well, I thought it was going short soon and this was a bear flag. I was off by just a few minutes! It then dropped about 8 points.

The trades circled are acceptable to me and the others were just not thinking. I was not talking to myself and teaching myself as I traded etc...

Tomorrow is another day!

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  #26 (permalink)
 Gary 
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bluemele View Post
....---- Started new day as I reached my threshold (-1.75 for that day)....

Hello,

Just curious what you mean here on starting a new day?

Gary

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 bluemele 
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Gary View Post
Hello,

Just curious what you mean here on starting a new day?

Gary

Typically, I would stop trading for the day and my day would be done and I would stop trading (PERIOD) IF I were trading live. But, to get a bit more experience, I 'pretended' like it is a new day with a new starting balance and start with a 0 balance.

I have a new rule that if I give 3 full gifts in a row or -150.00 per contract, then I will stop trading for the day as I am not seeing it. Had I put this rule into place several months ago, I would probably be very profitable.

It doesn't seem like it now, but I am trading the worst I have in months and hope to get back on my 1.5+ points a day soon. I would have days back then where I would give away 800-900 per contract and I would make it all back in one run OR most likely just stop for the day. So, now I have a tight limit as to limit my over-trading and losses.

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 bluemele 
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Up 9 ticks this morning (SIM) including commissions ($5.00).

I totally misread the bull flag this morning at the start of the NY OPEN.

I thought I saw short, then saw amazing strength all the sudden and I chased my entries and got off on the wrong foot. I then relaxed, breathed, focused on talking to myself, remembering my strategy for the day and focusing on areas.

It was very choppy AGAIN for the first 30 minutes and then a nice trend down. I will be more cautious in the first 30 minutes now for a bit as it seems a definite persistence. I am thinking that there is a real tug-o-war going on between bulls/bears.

Fundamentally I would put more weight of a deeper retrace and I think all it will take is a little bit of unexpected bad news. I think company earnings are holding everything up for the time being, but when government data continues to erode and a weak shopping season could further put things in a spin. WE WILL SEE!

Trades:

1. +0 ticks, Not a bad entry, but I did see a retrace coming on the 144 MACD with some separation so I decided to exit my trade and wait for it.

2. -5 ticks, Ok, now this was not a good trade. I was 1 point from the pivot (chasing) and I assumed the quick drop was a head for the head and shoulders. The 50K chart was looking delicious for a long, the daily looked either way to me and weekly is still long. 4181 and 1597 are all saying short and I could have paid attention.

3. +0 ticks, too early, more to go in this move, so I manually exited, but I thought I got a couple ticks out of it but it didn't fill me till BE.

4. +9 ticks, I was having a lot of noise in my head on this trade. I couldn't focus but my entry was great. I was not feeling confident in my ability at this point and telling myself that it will probably be just another gift. So, I exited at the first slow down! I should have called it a day at that point and I was considering it.

5. +1 tick, I was still thinking long. Boy have I been counter-trend trading lately.

6. +7 ticks, not good entry, lucky I got my few ticks.

7. NO FILL, This looked pretty good, but not great. I liked the 200MA, but the MACD's looked like a little more up.

8. NO FILL, Ok, I was still not feeling super confident! So, it sat on my price for a good 5-10 seconds and didn't fill me on this one either. I didn't chase it as I was having trouble reading direction.

Seems like the last week or two the market has been very 'jumbled' and ranging for the first 30 minutes. This is hard for me to hit any trends clearly and I have not been adapting to this different market condition. I keep thinking I will get those 'trend for the whole day from the Open' days.

Life is good!

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  #29 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele View Post
Seems like the last week or two the market has been very 'jumbled' and ranging for the first 30 minutes. This is hard for me to hit any trends clearly and I have not been adapting to this different market condition. I keep thinking I will get those 'trend for the whole day from the Open' days.

Life is good!

To capture a max of points you need to become aware of the market structure and develop an accute sense of direction or where is price is more likely to go at key anchor points. That's similar to drawing a curve in Illustrator from Adobe, you can only anticipate the direction to come at key anchor points:



Look at the TF chart below. I have circled key areas where a bounce is likely to occur. Place your trade in relation to these areas.

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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
To capture a max of points you need to become aware of the market structure and develop an accute sense of direction or where is price is more likely to go at key anchor points. That's similar to drawing a curve in Illustrator from Adobe, you can only anticipate the direction to come at key anchor points:



Look at the TF chart below. I have circled key areas where a bounce is likely to occur. Place your trade in relation to these areas.

How are you deciding where those points are? I typically use HIGH VOLUME AREAS which are pretty evident from price action, S & R (basic, no pivot point calc's), fibs, trend lines, keltner, 200MA, etc.....

Seems you are using volume, channels, Pivots, MA's etc..

Why do you take those trades? Or did you take those trades?

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  #31 (permalink)
 papa15 
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bluemele
Why not look at The Three Setups thread and do the inside bar on CL? I had a totally different method that I tried to make work on ES but I just could not be consistent. When I saw Jeff's method, it clicked with me. I suggest doing it sim for 3 days alongside your current method and then compare the results. If I read correctly, your daily goal is $200 or $1000/week. In all honesty, the market will give enough opportunities on IBs to come close to those numbers.....you just have to be willing to tolerate larger stops....
Papa15

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 bluemele 
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papa15 View Post
bluemele
Why not look at The Three Setups thread and do the inside bar on CL? I had a totally different method that I tried to make work on ES but I just could not be consistent. When I saw Jeff's method, it clicked with me. I suggest doing it sim for 3 days alongside your current method and then compare the results. If I read correctly, your daily goal is $200 or $1000/week. In all honesty, the market will give enough opportunities on IBs to come close to those numbers.....you just have to be willing to tolerate larger stops....
Papa15

I have traded probably 40+ 'systems' and toyed with IB's also. I think I have discovered the Holy Grail at least 10,000 times. The thing that I am most interested is to stick with something that works.

I agree with you on the IB's though, the simpler the better, but RR has to be right so I will continue to play with it. Right now market conditions for my trading at 9:30 to 10:15 are not ideal, but typically this isn't the case and time will tell. I have been trading this method for over 1 year and I went from wildly profitable to terrible (With real $$). I have lost a lot more though on mechanical systems due to the confidence they can create or 'avoid'.

I like the breakouts from Al Brooks also. I have been doing very good on those and I wanted to add the IB's to that.

Today I was playing around with GAP fills during news time. haha.. Something I used to do over a year ago and got killed! -500.00 on 2 contracts.

For now, I will stick to my technique, and focus on the IB's and breakouts on CL to get better on SIM.

I will be back live on the TF in a few weeks most likely. Who knows, this could take me many more years, but I would rather stick with just a few techniques than too many.

Thank you for the recommendations though and it is greatly appreciated.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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bluemele View Post
How are you deciding where those points are? I typically use HIGH VOLUME AREAS which are pretty evident from price action, S & R (basic, no pivot point calc's), fibs, trend lines, keltner, 200MA, etc.....

Seems you are using volume, channels, Pivots, MA's etc..

Why do you take those trades? Or did you take those trades?

Regarding the Pitchfork's, it's something i use as it's my belief price moves in an orderly fashion following action/reaction lines that conform to the 50% ratio (median line). I stick to this ratio as it moves twice as slow as price giving me times to make plans. For example, if price moves 50 ticks the mid point will be 25 but if it moves 10 more ticks at 60 ticks the mid point will become 30 etc. +5 versus +10 for price. The 50% ratio is a typical target whether it be in a move forward or backward in the case of a retracement. But it's more than this, it's the path followed by price.

Here are some examples of the 50% ratio in action on the ES:

A) 1180.25 middle of a swing that occured Wednesday during the night. In the end, this is where price made a high during the regular trading hours, almost to the tick at 1180.50.

B) The segment going from 1180.25 down to 1174.25 projected below gave us 1168.25. Price this day made a low 2 ticks away from this number at 1167.75.

C) A Low was made during the Globex session October 28, 2010. The segment going from 1167.75 to 1177.50 projected above gave us 1187.25. The overnight High hit 1187.50, 1 tick away from our projected 50% ratio.

D) The middle point of the initial balance (1st hour of trading) oftentimes serves as a retracement area later on the day. Here the 50% of the IB is 1181.75. Where did price go ? 1182.25, 2 ticks away from the initial balance mid point.

E) The regular trading hours Low was established on October 28 when price hit 1173.50. What was there ? Y-Mid or Yesterday middle point at 1174.13 or .25 rounded. Again 3 ticks away from it.

I could go on and on. Always the same story that repeats every day. The power of the 50% ratio is a key to understand the march forward of price action.




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 papa15 
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bluemele View Post
I have traded probably 40+ 'systems' and toyed with IB's also. I think I have discovered the Holy Grail at least 10,000 times. The thing that I am most interested is to stick with something that works.

I agree with you on the IB's though, the simpler the better, but RR has to be right so I will continue to play with it. Right now market conditions for my trading at 9:30 to 10:15 are not ideal, but typically this isn't the case and time will tell. I have been trading this method for over 1 year and I went from wildly profitable to terrible (With real $$). I have lost a lot more though on mechanical systems due to the confidence they can create or 'avoid'.

I like the breakouts from Al Brooks also. I have been doing very good on those and I wanted to add the IB's to that.

Today I was playing around with GAP fills during news time. haha.. Something I used to do over a year ago and got killed! -500.00 on 2 contracts.

For now, I will stick to my technique, and focus on the IB's and breakouts on CL to get better on SIM.

I will be back live on the TF in a few weeks most likely. Who knows, this could take me many more years, but I would rather stick with just a few techniques than too many.

Thank you for the recommendations though and it is greatly appreciated.

I have tried many, many different systems and instruments. I have tried scalping and other techniques. I have been to chat rooms galore. I have been at this for 4 years. I don't want to think about how much $$ have wasted.....all that to say the IB is NOT the holy grail. But it is a simple system that does work. It has kept me afloat the last 5 months. If I had done nothing but IBs, I would be much better off. I posted yesterday I had taken 67 IB trades, but that is not all the setups that were there. I expect it was at least 2x that number and maybe 3x. Forget the R:R. Do it on sim next week and compare the results vs your current system. If it does not equal or beat it, then if we ever meet, I will owe you a small liquid confectionery of your choice .
Papa15

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 trendisyourfriend 
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By IB i suppose you mean the initial balance, don't you ?

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 papa15 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
By IB i suppose you mean the initial balance, don't you ?

No, in this case it is inside bar. It is from the Three Setup thread by Jeff Castille.
Papa15

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 bluemele 
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I have tried many, many different systems and instruments. I have tried scalping and other techniques. I have been to chat rooms galore. I have been at this for 4 years. I don't want to think about how much $$ have wasted.....all that to say the IB is NOT the holy grail. But it is a simple system that does work. It has kept me afloat the last 5 months. If I had done nothing but IBs, I would be much better off. I posted yesterday I had taken 67 IB trades, but that is not all the setups that were there. I expect it was at least 2x that number and maybe 3x. Forget the R:R. Do it on sim next week and compare the results vs your current system. If it does not equal or beat it, then if we ever meet, I will owe you a small liquid confectionery of your choice .
Papa15

Ok, how big can my beer be? haha...

I will evaluate more seriously. Thanks for the direction and guidance.

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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Regarding the Pitchfork's, it's something i use as it's my belief price moves in an orderly fashion following action/reaction lines that conform to the 50% ratio (median line). I stick to this ratio as it moves twice as slow as price giving me times to make plans. For example, if price moves 50 ticks the mid point will be 25 but if it moves 10 more ticks at 60 ticks the mid point will become 30 etc. +5 versus +10 for price. The 50% ratio is a typical target whether it be in a move forward or backward in the case of a retracement. But it's more than this, it's the path followed by price.

Here are some examples of the 50% ratio in action on the ES:


I agree with you. Price is predictable. You brought up a good point in that I trade multi-time frames and utilize those calculations, but I am not actually TRADING those time-frames. More like just blocking it out and ignoring them. I have hit all my targets this week except today (which I didn't evaluate) by within 1 point and usually by the tick or by a couple ticks. But, my decision to trade only 9:30 - 10:15 keeps me fresh and hungry.

What do you do for your trades, do you have a journal on all of this?

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 bluemele 
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-1.6 points (16 ticks) >>>> SIM

Ok, told myself to take longs in the morning, failed to follow my plan. Funny how that happens. You set up a plan and then when the market opens you disconnect and click click click.

This is the worst week I have had in weeks. Partly the method/market and mostly me.

My technique of limiting my losses is working well though. Like today, I would have stayed in and probably lost a lot more money.

Had I been doing longs, I think I would have profited nicely.

Trades:

1. -3 ticks, I clicked on this @ 697, but market jumped on me, so I got a low fill and I don't k now why I clicked? Nice setup, but wrong direction!

2. +1 tick, had some profit here, but market was ranging up. Again, wrong direction as 4181 was clearly headed north.

3. +0 ticks, I thought this was a good looking entry, BUT it was not the right area, so shame on me.

4. -2 ticks, THIS was a good area, but I was EARLY and I knew it when I clicked.

5. NO FILL, I just didn't get filled, this was a nice trade my wife got for 8 ticks when it started coming back.

6. NICE AREA DIDN'T CLICK. I didn't have a fib area, or keltner or MA, so I stayed out, but it did look good.

7. -4 ticks, 144 MACD was saying don't go in yet!

8. -5 ticks, this looked better, but high risk. Just knocked me out by the tik and went for a little bit and then a big retrace.

9. NO FILL, OK, this sat on my price for a few seconds, and stuff like this kills me emotionally. So, I reached my daily limit and stopped for the day.

One thing though is that I figured it was long and mostly took shorts today. WHY is the question. I guess I like days of giving away money.

I anticipate next week to be a prosperous and boring trading week.

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 Tiger45 
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bluemele View Post
-1.6 points (16 ticks) >>>> SIM

This is the worst week I have had in weeks. Partly the method/market and mostly me.

Hang in there...

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 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
Hang in there...

Thanks. I am actually feeling much better now.

Weeks like this you feel like changing everything around etc., but I will revisit the technique and I realized from my coach that I am trading all wrong again. I think we tend to move in a direction which doesn't suit us.

Let's see what next week brings.

Aloha!

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 Big Mike 
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bluemele View Post
Thanks. I am actually feeling much better now.

Weeks like this you feel like changing everything around etc., but I will revisit the technique and I realized from my coach that I am trading all wrong again. I think we tend to move in a direction which doesn't suit us.

Let's see what next week brings.

Aloha!

Yes, don't change everything (charts, indicators -- in other words "method, method, method") when the problem is nothing to do with method but everything to do with execution.

Now whether or not that is the case here, I don't know. By journaling why you entered and exit each trade, and then going back and reviewing that material, you should know the answer -- is the problem the method or the execution?

Mike

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 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Yes, don't change everything (charts, indicators -- in other words "method, method, method") when the problem is nothing to do with method but everything to do with execution.

Now whether or not that is the case here, I don't know. By journaling why you entered and exit each trade, and then going back and reviewing that material, you should know the answer -- is the problem the method or the execution?

Mike

80% EXECUTION. 20% not the best market conditions.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, well, hmmm.... This is my journal, there is no other like it, this one is mine.. blah blah...

I went back to my Mentor's video's this weekend. It was an interesting watch and boy have I gone off the deep end with my trading. I am trading completely different then I used to and not even close to how I could choose to trade.

I haven't been focusing on the longer term trends, holding my trades (winners) long enough and just basically being comfortable. I went through my last 2 weeks videos (mixing them up so I didn't know which day was what) and on one day for example, instead of -1.0 points, I was +5.5 points! Big difference.

What I would like to do is move to Ninja Trader from TradeStation, but unfortunately their indiactors (and charts) don't allow you to move them vertically! If they did that on thing, I think they would have a lot more happy users, but for some reason they can't..... (EVEN IN NT7!...)

This would help me with practice and save me 250.00 per month!

-----TOMORROW----

It is loving this little range. My guess from a breakout perspective is that when it decides to move, it will move nicely.

First pic---
Weekly is on the rail, expect more up this week
Daily had separation, could bounce off for a nice bear flag but expect bullishness
50K says coming from underneath, but bands have a good distance so ranging is possible

2nd pic ---
4181 says more up, but separated but looking bullish
1597 is at resistace, and outside Keltner channel, this looks bearish

3rd Pic ---
Price Action
144 tick, Way outside Keltner, expect retrace, as this is the largest gap I have seen for some time.

Not super clear for tomorrow thus far, but considering the big move, I would expect a retrace to come sometime and I hope it will wait for me tomorrow. I would enjoy that.

The only target that stands out for me currently is a reversal at 718.60 (weekly, 50% fib), 721.22 (daily, 88% fib) and possibly 716.15 (double top, 50K).

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 bluemele 
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+10 TICKS today

I choose to be happy with this, however, I deserve better implementation of my skills. Poor execution and a lack of confidence. I did a lot of studying this weekend and realized a great many things that I am not doing properly.

Trades:

1. -2 ticks, I expected only long today (I was right) and this looked like a nice starting off point, but the lower timeframes were a little bumpy.

2. NO FILL, glad I didn't get filled on this one! It ended up being a nice bear flag for a nice pointy head on a larger timeframe H&S.

3. +1 tick, Ok, this is what is mainly wrong with my trading. Two areas, 200MA, nice bar setup, but yet I let it come back and knock me out. I believed that if it retraced that it would come down to fill the gap and also the spread gap from yesterday. Hit me on the tick and I knew it when the 2nd bar of the dual bar setup closed so high up. I was patient and will wait for a retrace to get in.

4. NO FILL, this could have been filled had I kept my order in. I don't like to leave orders in for more than 10 seconds after it has closed up as it will usually come down more than I would like and I will try to reenter, but often times I miss out because I am 'fearful' and it retraces just to the tick.

5. +1 ticks, I saw the longer timeframes with nice separation and figured this could be a nice drop, but I was ignoring the daily and 50K charts which was saying up! Remember, no shorts today!

6. -4 ticks, OK, no shorts today? A lot of price action in this area and resistance and it go through it!

7. +16 ticks, This is not a bad counter-trend trade. The setup was clear and my management was flawless because I knew NEWS could push it back up.

Had I kept trade #3, I would have closed it most likely for 3.5 points since I am currently running only 1 contract. My focus this week is to trade WITH the trend, but you see again today that I decided to ignore that advice from myself.

Life is good, what an amazing opportunity to perform something like this.

CL was amazing today pre-market.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele, for what is worth. I use the ES to trade the TF or vice versa. They both complement each other very well. Today, i was waiting for price to hit last week high at 1193 and the strong 710 level on the RUSSELL. Both were hit approximately at the same time. The RUSSELL hit the nail at 710.2 while the ES was unable to hit 1193. Missed by one tick at 1192.75 (that was my first strong signal). I also use the initial balance (range of the first hour of trading). The average for ES was roughly 7.5 points. When the initial bal. range on the ES went above 7 pts, i was ready to fire on the RUSSELL as i knew the probability for a larger IB on the ES was somewhat limited since we were trading near last week high at 1193. My expectation was that price should go down. At least by 2 points on the RUSSELL.

I use both instruments more specifically when they hit a level of support/resistance almost simultaneously to time my entry. This produces the highest probability trade for me.

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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
bluemele, for what is worth. I use the ES to trade the TF or vice versa. They both complement each other very well. Today, i was waiting for price to hit last week high at 1193 and the strong 710 level on the RUSSELL. Both were hit approximately at the same time. The RUSSELL hit the nail at 710.2 while the ES was unable to hit 1193. Missed by one tick at 1192.75 (that was my first strong signal). I also use the initial balance (range of the first hour of trading). The average for ES was roughly 7.5 points. When the initial bal. range on the ES went above 7 pts, i was ready to fire on the RUSSELL as i knew the probability for a larger IB on the ES was somewhat limited since we were trading near last week high at 1193. My expectation was that price should go down. At least by 2 points on the RUSSELL.

I use both instruments more specifically when they hit a level of support/resistance almost simultaneously to time my entry. This produces the highest probability trade for me.

I studied MP for a few weeks (4) for 8 hours a day. The conclusion I came to was that it didn't show me anything that I couldn't get from another indicator. The IB trades, fading ledges etc.. all make complete sense, however for me, it just doesn't sing and I see too many confusing areas and I my intent is to not scalp for a few ticks and since I like the small stop and large reward it just isn't possible using MP.

I do use ES to help see if this is bull/bear and it usually helps! The technique I use is VERY discretionary and requires a lot of intuitive chart reading and not as much reliance on the indicators. Today could have easily been a +35 to +100 tick day.

I stopped trading before the big drop as they are just coming a bit later in time than I would like. I was just playing around after my entries that I posted and I hit the pivot at 710.00 on the nose. I closed it and called it a day (as I was playing), but it took me 9 ticks of gifts (just playing) to hit it which is ok, considering the 11 point drop!

I saw the short coming, but I am ahead of the game. Too much emotion.

Thanks for sharing!

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 bluemele 
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+20 ticks for the day including commissions.

Today was a good day in terms of points, however, it continues to show my lack of confidence and trading for points/money.

Trades:

1. -6 ticks, This was a 4 tick boundary, but it blew right by it. This was a questionable area, but I do believe that the market was going to head short. However, the daily and 50K charts were saying LONG!

2. -5 ticks, This was an 88% retracement area and the previous pivot hit the 76% on the nose, so I figured this could be it considering the semi-bar setup and outside keltner channel and some of the longer term MACDBB's were having substantial separation etc..

3. +10 ticks, Ok so this is the high of the day, the market only goes down from here, so why did I decide to extract 10 ticks and not wait for my target. BECAUSE I DIDN'T WANT IT TO RETRACE AND KNOCK ME OUT AND THEN I HAVE NO WAY TO PAY BACK MY GIFTS. Not the best attitude and until I can hold these, I will not go live! My target was at the head and shoulders which was also the 61% retracement area on the run from this morning. It would have netted me another 17 ticks but I decided that I am greedy and thinking about money. That was today, tomorrow I choose to think differently.

4. +0 ticks, this trade was questionable as it wasn't my area to invest in, but it was looking strong. I realized it was going to drop and pop a head for the H&S, so I got out luckily at BE!

5. +15 ticks, I felt the market was strong and I could choose to take longs. When it got to the pivot where I exited it just had too much separation on all the MACD's to look good.

6. +9 ticks, Another long opportunity and scaled out when weakness set in.

Preferably, if I were trading the way I was taught, I would have made the short @ 708.80 (trade #3) and just held it. The market has since dropped substantially.

My focus is for 2+ points per day for 20 trading days before I go live again. If I continue to scale scale scale, then I will only have more time till I go live.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, losing day as far as "SIM" money is concerned, however, my trading I believe was much better.

I did 2 things poorly today:

1. Forcing, too many trades
2. Losing focus and just clicking

I took 17 trades today! Honestly, I considered stopping after my first big run, but that is why I am happy in that I was able to keep going looking for that elusive short which never actually happened for me, but it showed my focus.

-4 ticks for the day (.4 points)

I held my winning trades MUCH longer than I was ready to do and I am happy for that and it showed marked improvement. Also, the fact that I was willing to risk more to stay focused on my belief of what I am seeing is positive. CONFIDENCE.

I believe that FOMC would be a ranging day, so I don't know why I was thinking it was going to trend hard.

The 4181 looked so juicy that I was thinking it was going to fly down and give me 8-9 points.

Trades:

1. -5 ticks, I thought this was a trend continuation and the bb's were getting back underneath the bands, so I figured we had more down.

2. +0 ticks, This was the 50% retrace, but it was a bull-flag.

3. +0 ticks, Still focused on the 4181 with massive separation, I thought this 61% retracement would be the area.

4. -4 ticks, I thought this was a pullback for more down.

5. -3 ticks, This area seemed good, it was a couple areas of extension and retracements.

6. +20 ticks, This was just a reentry of my earlier gift. I am VERY PROUD of this because normally I would have went to BE and it would have knocked me out or I would have scaled for 10 ticks or something. I held it, focused on trade maximization. I considered stopping for the day, but I thought there was a retrace coming with more down. I was right, but didn't think it would be after a 3 point gain.

7. -3 ticks, This was just a poor entry. Too eager to hit the short.

8. -5 ticks, This was a nice bar setup but I chased it and I had to have the entire 5 tick boundary in place to accommodate the trade. It is ok.

9. -4 ticks, Lots of ranging motion, slowdown, I liked the short look and the area was the 76%.

10. +0 ticks, This was a good looking entry and I held it for 7 minutes while it ranged. News was coming so I went BE+1 and it knocked me out at BE.

11. NO FILL. News was moving the market and when I clicked to buy bid the bar had already moved down 8 ticks! It wasn't the pivot anyways.

12. -5 ticks, This is where I got off focus and was just playing around. I was upset at my poor performance of the past 3 gifts and the BE, so I was forcing the market.

13. -4 ticks, Same as last trade.

14. -1 ticks, This looked good, but it just kept going up up up.

15. -3 ticks, Again, this looked yummy to me, but I lacked confidence to stick with it.

16. -3 ticks, Same as last trade. CONFIDENCE wasn't good and I was a little bit emotional over the ranging market and my interpretation of the direction.

17. +24 ticks, THIS WAS AN EXCELLENT TRADE, and I hit it off the pullback. I honestly was thinking this could easily be another gift as the MACD's didn't seem to be exceptionally clear to me this morning. I closed this when it got within 1 point of my target. I was happy to make back some gifts and was tired of staring at the ranging market.

The market is currently 1 point below my target but I don't trade that long.

It was a great day as I haven't been holding my trades more than a few ticks. This time I stuck with my trades, and held them. I was too aggressive (by far), but that can be worked out very easily.

Hasta Manana!

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 Tiger45 
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bluemele View Post

17. +24 ticks, THIS WAS AN EXCELLENT TRADE, and I hit it off the pullback. I honestly was thinking this could easily be another gift as the MACD's didn't seem to be exceptionally clear to me this morning. I closed this when it got within 1 point of my target. I was happy to make back some gifts and was tired of staring at the ranging market.



It was a great day as I haven't been holding my trades more than a few ticks. This time I stuck with my trades, and held them.

Hasta Manana!

Let those winners run!!!

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 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
Let those winners run!!!

Yes. It has been my biggest challenge to profitability.

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 bluemele 
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+1 tick for the day!!! WOOOHOOO!

My fundamentals are getting MUCH Better! I was very deliberate, more confident and would have been more profitable had I been a little more aggressive.

Trades:

1. -9 ticks, Well, how does a 4 tick boundary move to -9 ticks! When you get a HUGE move on the opening like we did. I haven't seen something like that in the last year and ahalf.

2. -1 ticks, I could have chosen to remove myself from this and just watch it till the market calms down. It was moving very quickly and my charts were saying shorts were in order. I didn't have the confidence to stay in this trade as I saw a long coming.

3. +17 ticks, this was an area and it was looking juicy for a long, but I scaled too early as there was more left in it. The longer terms were saying down, so I just decided to exit and look for short.

4. NO FILL, this looks nice! Market was very bullish and it wanted a higher price!

5. -4 ticks, Outside Keltner, nice separation, good looking direction. Just knocked me out as I had a 3 tick boundary but filled me at -4. Had I kept my 5 tick boundary, I would have been in this trade.

6. NO FILL, I was busy marking up my charts, BAD HABIT! I will stop doing that and that is an issue that I will overcome.

7. NO FILL, this looks like a nice retracement as well, but I delayed and it cost me.

8. +0 ticks, OK, this was an interesting one. I let it drop, and it ranged for several minutes just below my entry. Considering how strong the market has been and how quickly it moved up, I figured that I would play it safe and put my boundary RIGHT AT THE 50% FIB. By the tick it knocked me out for what was a 2.5 point run. If you look at the circles after that BE hit, then those are entries I considered for getting back in, but I wasn't confident in shorts.

Market went down, then quickly back up higher then the top pivot and looks to be headed short. Oil(CL) is up quite a bit and it seems that the FOMC news yesterday was everything investors wanted to hear.

Fundamentally, I am perplexed as to why the market is going up up up. I guess they are liking the weak dollar and the effort to keep mortgages low and liquidity high.

Even though I was +1 tick and not up 3+ points, my trading was much better today then it has been in the last couple weeks. The last BE trade was a mistake, but I am OK with it and comfortable with stop trading for the day.

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 cory 
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bluemele View Post
Ok, well, hmmm.... This is my journal, there is no other like it, this one is mine.. blah blah...

...

What I would like to do is move to Ninja Trader from TradeStation, but unfortunately their indiactors (and charts) don't allow you to move them vertically! If they did that on thing, I think they would have a lot more happy users, but for some reason they can't.....

use this indicator to move chart vertically, remember to adjust the scale each contract needs a dif scale .

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 bluemele 
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cory View Post
use this indicator to move chart vertically, remember to adjust the scale each contract needs a dif scale .

Cory,

Thanks, but I tried importing and I get a duplicate method name with NT7? NT6.5 it works but I guess I don't know how to use it?

This is an indicator to force the scale of the window to x ticks? I guess after playing with it, it doesn't seem to help me much... Thanks though for the help.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, today was an interesting ranging day. With my new limit in place, it stopped me from taking more losses then I would have liked.

-18 ticks for the day total (-1.8 points)

Trades:

1,2,3: -2, +1, +13, Good area, hit pivot then rode it to 1.3 points as the longer term MACD's were looking darn confusing to me as they kept reversing and creating separation, then back again, then back again...

4,5,6,7: -1, -2, -2, -1, First trade looked good, but if it wasn't here, it was at the 76 or 100% retrace. I lacked confidence on my last trade of this set. It was a nice few points down, but again, the MACD's kept changing their look very quickly.

8,9,10: -5, -4, NO FILL, This was actually probably the best area to hit for the day had I gotten filled. It didn't waste anytime retracing so I had no chance to fill.

11,12,13: -5, +1, -4, I should not have been looking short. This was saying long from the 4181, so not wise on my part. I could have exited the last trade for BE for the day, but instead I held it and it popped past my stop for a couple of extra ticks.

Not a great day as I was short/long/short/long, wow...

I was seeing the pivots, but boy the long term was unclear until after I stopped trading due to my limit for the day being hit.

Aloha!

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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bluemele View Post
Cory,

Thanks, but I tried importing and I get a duplicate method name with NT7? NT6.5 it works but I guess I don't know how to use it?

This is an indicator to force the scale of the window to x ticks? I guess after playing with it, it doesn't seem to help me much... Thanks though for the help.

its kind of simple so there is no instruction, for tf try scale = 1. To drag the chart down, hold down crtl key, position your cursor in middle of a chart hold down mouse key and drag it down, it might look like nothing happen to the chart but if you stretch/squeeze the chart afterward it will move down, reverse to move up.

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tradestack
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I've tried to trade TF a few times. It's moves are very violent. If you can get on the right side of it, you can rack up some gains in a hurry.

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 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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bluemele, when you have time, would you mind posting how you interpret price action in relation to the MACD indicator. Or how do you read the MACD ?

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 aviat72 
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cory View Post
use this indicator to move chart vertically, remember to adjust the scale each contract needs a dif scale .

Cory could you please explain what exactly did does?

From the code it seems that it changes the location of each chart object (nice to know how to access it). But can't we do that by pressing control and then scrolling along the Y-axis?

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 cory 
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aviat72 View Post
Cory could you please explain what exactly did does?

From the code it seems that it changes the location of each chart object (nice to know how to access it). But can't we do that by pressing control and then scrolling along the Y-axis?

chart just moves left/right when I do that. we try to drag it up/down.

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 bluemele 
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cory View Post
its kind of simple so there is no instruction, for tf try scale = 1. To drag the chart down, hold down crtl key, position your cursor in middle of a chart hold down mouse key and drag it down, it might look like nothing happen to the chart but if you stretch/squeeze the chart afterward it will move down, reverse to move up.

Cory,

THANKS! This helps immensely.

Now, a couple of issues using it.

When I put it on the 'panel' with the indicator MACDBB, it then changes the reference vertical calculation to match the pricing of the bars. For example price on TF is 736.3, so when I put that indi on the MACDBB, the reference on the right side gets changed to 736.3 instead of 0.

I tried then pressing control and dragging, but no luck as after about 350 units the screen goes blank (I think because price hasn't reached down that far historically). However, when I go to change any settings and hit apply, it looks perfect! But after I hit "OK", it then starts using the TF Pricing scale again?

I would like to have this working on my indicator (using the right scale) and my chart.

It works great on the chart!

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 bluemele 
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aviat72 View Post
Cory could you please explain what exactly did does?

From the code it seems that it changes the location of each chart object (nice to know how to access it). But can't we do that by pressing control and then scrolling along the Y-axis?

I can't seem to move the charts VERTICALLY using Ninja. So, Cory just passed on the indicator that allows me to drag the bars up/down and even off-screen. I don't know how to do this any other way and if you do, great! Please share.


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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
bluemele, when you have time, would you mind posting how you interpret price action in relation to the MACD indicator. Or how do you read the MACD ?

Yes, I will do that. The issue is I use two screens and they are inter-connected, so to do that requires a very large image. Thanks, and I guess I have been lazy.

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 bluemele 
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tradestack View Post
I've tried to trade TF a few times. It's moves are very violent. If you can get on the right side of it, you can rack up some gains in a hurry.

It moves beautifully to me. I am not doing well with it now, but I have and will again when I get my arms around the changes I have been making.

For me, there is a very limited mindset that will limit your winners. The way my mentors and others using this technique successfully all do is that they let the trades run for much longer than I do.

So, for example, I will usually make 2-5 points (20 - 50 ticks) on a good day. However, my loser days will be 15 - 20 ticks (1.5 - 2.0 points).

However, what I found was I was trading for smaller and smaller wins over time. I went from 3 points to 2 points to 1 point per day. Yuck! When you have 3 - 10 tick winning days and two -20 tick days, well... Not real promising.

So, over the last few weeks I have been working on unraveling the poor trading habits I picked up a few months back (which I did reasonably well with) and focus on being ok and letting it ride for much longer. If I lose 20 give away temporarily 20 ticks, then no big deal as I will make 50-70-90 the next day.

My LONGEST Trade ever was 188 ticks.

My Best day was 220+ ticks (same day) and I have slowly gone downhill from there. Time to start dancing the dance, singing the same melody or whatever comparison I can think up.

TF, CL are my favorites, but for me, I will focus on mastering the TF as I am inches away. It may seem like a long ways, but you can see I am hitting pivot areas and just missing the good days. I will be there soon enough and then consistency will set in.

It is like anything, you get worse before you get better.

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 cory 
the coin hunter
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bluemele View Post
Cory,

...

When I put it on the 'panel' with the indicator MACDBB, ...?

I would like to have this working on my indicator (using the right scale) and my chart.

It works great on the chart!

I think it works on price panel only.

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 bluemele 
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bluemele View Post
I can't seem to move the charts VERTICALLY using Ninja. So, Cory just passed on the indicator that allows me to drag the bars up/down and even off-screen. I don't know how to do this any other way and if you do, great! Please share.


I just realized that it seems the new Ninja has been updated to do exactly like you said. However, you still have to go over and click on the axis which is a bit annoying.

It does do it though! Sweet. Let me play with it some.

If this works, I will hopefully be out of TS very soon! Now, I just need a HLC bar type in NT7!

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 Linds 
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Hey B
You can create an OHC bar on NT6.5 or 7 by adding an SMA1to the 'HiLo' type bar. Then set 'calc on close of bar' to false and display it as a dot or a hash instead of a line. You probably knew that but just in case.....

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 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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Linds View Post
Hey B
You can create an OHC bar on NT6.5 or 7 by adding an SMA1to the 'HiLo' type bar. Then set 'calc on close of bar' to false and display it as a dot or a hash instead of a line. You probably knew that but just in case.....


You could just as well use this indicator :

HLCloseLines modified by FatTails for NT7 :


Same version by the orginal author (eDanny) from www.integrity-traders.com :



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 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele View Post
Yes, I will do that. The issue is I use two screens and they are inter-connected, so to do that requires a very large image. Thanks, and I guess I have been lazy.

That's just the general rules you use i am interested in. I am curious as judging from your entries in the examples posted you seem to favor counter trend entries when the momentum is increasing in the MACD but against you. I can't see how you can win with this procedure but it's difficult to tell judging from a few charts.

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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
That's just the general rules you use i am interested in. I am curious as judging from your entries in the examples posted you seem to favor counter trend entries when the momentum is increasing in the MACD but against you. I can't see how you can win with this procedure but it's difficult to tell judging from a few charts.

Yes, it is pivot trading (counter-trend on smaller trend).

I am supposed to be trading with the trend. That has been the single biggest issue of trading against the larger trend as your indicators will not give as clear an entry on the trend trades. I am getting better at identifying those trends, but even so, counter-trend trading with MACD's is possible.

My mentor has a site that you can see the vids, but I don't want to make it seem like I am pushing his services.

If you had internal access, you could see how effective this is as you will see students videos. I also have videos, but I stretch my indi's across two screens so most people can't figure out how to view the AVI file.

I will see if I can put a video up on screencast.com to share with you an effective day. I am in the middle of changing from shorter term (scalping) to longer term (trending) so I am 'ruffled' at the moment trying to get it through my head.

I also use a couple indi's (just hints) that they do not use.

Thanks for all your help.

BTW, quite a few students are pulling 10 points a day out of the market with little effort. Yes, they have losing days and guess the wrong direction of the trend, but the winners far outweigh the bad. I think the key is the R:R. 1:6...... Pretty good.

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 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele View Post
...
I am supposed to be trading with the trend. That has been the single biggest issue of trading against the larger trend as your indicators will not give as clear an entry on the trend trades. I am getting better at identifying those trends, but even so, counter-trend trading with MACD's is possible.

To avoid obfuscating anybody just PM me your mentor's web site, i'll take a look. Regarding counter-trend trades with MACD, i do it too. But i have noticed that it's easier for me to take a counter-trend trade when price retraces or makes a pullback. A typical example is when price retest a swing high in a downtrend or a swing low in an uptrend. I like to use the BBMACD to evaluate the strength of the push against or with the global trend. You might argue that it's not a counter trend trade but i like to think that i am going against the emerging momentum.

I tried to illustrade a typical counter trend trade setup as i see it presently in my understanding of price action. You should easily see how i tend to interpret the MACD in relation to price action. To avoid any confusion, i first look at the reaction of my indicators then i look at price to find the ideal entry point. Price action as i see it is evaluated in a global context and by that i mean in relation to what the indicators suggest in the developing context. I like to think i use a frame of reference to interpret what's going on.

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 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
To avoid obfuscating anybody just PM me your mentor's web site, i'll take a look. Regarding counter-trend trades with MACD, i do it too. But i have noticed that it's easier for me to take a counter-trend trade when price retraces or makes a pullback. A typical example is when price retest a swing high in a downtrend or a swing low in an uptrend. I like to use the BBMACD to evaluate the strength of the push against or with the global trend. You might argue that it's not a counter trend trade but i like to think that i am going against the emerging momentum.

I tried to illustrade a typical counter trend trade setup as i see it presently in my understanding of price action. You should easily see how i tend to interpret the MACD in relation to price action. To avoid any confusion, i first look at the reaction of my indicators then i look at price to find the ideal entry point. Price action as i see it is evaluated in a global context and by that i mean in relation to what the indicators suggest in the developing context. I like to think i use a frame of reference to interpret what's going on.

Yes, nice chart and I agree 100%.

Pullbacks using small stops are harder to identify the setups IMHO. I am not an expert yet, pullbacks are possible, and I try to get in on the 23% deep pullback to test the pivot. By not waiting I tend to give more gifts and I set it to BE+1 too often and get knocked out anyways, but also sometimes it doesn't retest support/resistance and I am in a very nice run.

Friday was an interesting day...

Oh, and ignore all the BS on the 'sales' part of the website that I send... It is all new to try and get students, but it doesn't deter me as I believe it works.

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 bluemele 
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I am in Hawaii working on some of my development projects, so no trading this week.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, -28.00 today or -3 ticks total.

My first day using NinjaTrader and my first day back trading after a week off. I was chomping at the bit to trade and wasn't clear on which direction to go.

I saw longs on the 50K, short on the 4181 and 1597, so I COULD have chosen to sit it out until clear. It was clear on my last long and I could have held it for much longer, but I am back to my old habits.

Trades:

1. -4 ticks, The 987 was saying more up!

2. -4 ticks, same as trade #1!

3. -5 ticks, I thought this was the pivot for a short finally. I was close.

4. -3 ticks, Ok, from the mess on the Ninjatrader charts, you can tell that I am trading way too much. I wanted to hit that pivot and it did one last surge up. This was the high for the early morning.

5. +13 ticks, this was good insight as even though I saw short, it was saying it was unsure or going to range.

6. NO FILL, Down arrow showing I tried to enter at 724.50 but I guess too many people felt the same way.

7. +1 tick, I was ready for the short, but the market wanted to range.

8. -2 ticks, tight stop, expected a bounce, but bars were closing down. Pay attention!

9. -5 ticks, I expected it to run from here.

10. +1 tick, came back down to knock me out before a run.

11. +12 ticks, market was moving a bit slow, and since I only have one contract decided to exit to take care of other things.

For my first day of using JUST NT 7, I am very happy. This was fun to me.

I am very excited to drop TS!


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  #75 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Ok, I was up/down today and still playing with NT7.0 so I am not going to post my charts.

I am not 100% yet with the platform, but on SIM I was +-50.00 dependent upon when I decided to stop trading.

A few nuances have yet to be Mastered.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, last day of playing w/ NinjaTrader7 and I noticed my wife's feed and my feed are completely different. My macd's are WAAAY different than hers! Strange?

So, I am on demo and she is on live account, so we need to figure this out. Kind of scary if you think about it, but I guess the feeds can be that different!

I think that is the issue.

I was up/down/up/down today. Pretty ranging day and I would have ended up -200.00 or -20 ticks for the day, but I was up about 11 ticks and maybe would have stopped, but still just learning the new system and how to react to certain conditions when they occur in the platform. Like scaling out quickly etc...

Tomorrow will be my first serious day.


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 max-td 
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Quoting 
Ok, last day of playing w/ NinjaTrader7 and I noticed my wife's feed and my feed are completely different. My macd's are WAAAY different than hers! Strange?

are you both on NT7 ?
are you both with zenfire just live + sim ?

or are you mixed on NT7 / 6,5 ?

as i heard there are some major changes with zenfire-servers, old ones / new ones, wich are giving realy different input - even if using NT7 only.

basicly sim vs. live on the same NT-version should not be a different in my eyes - if you have the same versions + same connected servers

i only heard about this from far away, so do not know exaclty whats behind this.

maybe someone knows more in this direction.

max-td
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  #78 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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max-td View Post
are you both on NT7 ?
are you both with zenfire just live + sim ?

or are you mixed on NT7 / 6,5 ?

as i heard there are some major changes with zenfire-servers, old ones / new ones, wich are giving realy different input - even if using NT7 only.

basicly sim vs. live on the same NT-version should not be a different in my eyes - if you have the same versions + same connected servers

i only heard about this from far away, so do not know exaclty whats behind this.

maybe someone knows more in this direction.

It is interesting isn't it!

I haven't realized this and I understand that TS is different then NT, but boy... We watched it today and it was strange, they were much closer, but bars were a bit different. Her bar setups looked completely different then mine! I would think they would be identical considering same exact computer (well except the stamp on the motherboard), same internet, I did a backup from NT7 and restored it on her computer etc.. You would think they would be identical. The only thing different is the feed, DEMO/LIVE.

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  #79 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Ok, it was a positive trading day, but not the kind to be proud of.

The daily, 50K were all saying UP UP UP and there is a nice setup saying that it is going to head up to 730+- and then go for a big drop! I didn't listen to that, as I am only going for a couple points and the 4181 tick, 1597 tick were all saying that they have some retracing to do!

I want to upload my indicators and template, but I don't know how to export a template? So, I will hopefully put that on the first post soon.

The first image below is my trading results.

2nd image is my first trade of the day. You can see from the MACD's that it was headed north, but I thought possibly that it could go hard short, so I ignored them. I expected it to go down, then up, not up up up.

3rd image is a perfect picture of a counter-trend profitable trade. Clear separation on the MACD's, outside Keltner, etc.. I will explain nuances as I go, but most people can look at these two differences and see what isn't working.

I am still working on NinjaTrader and I find myself not getting in as much on the pivots as I do on TS. I use the chart trader, so my hand is right there, but maybe I am taking more time to confirm. I also didn't get in on a couple of trades due to no fills today.

Trades:

1. -3 ticks, MACD's were clearly saying going up except 4181.

2. -2 ticks, bad trade, closed it as it wasn't ready yet.

3. - 5 ticks, I chased this entry, as it was 'popping' very quickly and by the time I clicked it had dropped about 5 ticks, then popped me right out.

4. -2 ticks, ok, I thought for sure this was the pivot. It had a little more juice left in it. Had I kept a 5 tick boundary, I would have been ok.

5. +18 ticks, This was perfection. Not in the right direction, but perfect entry, perfect exit. Actually my entry was supposed to be @ 718.70, but it didn't fill me so I chased it. I considered stopping for the day.

6. NO FILL, went +8 ticks in my direction, but not a good possible trade.

7. -7 ticks, WOW, blew right through my stop! Poor entry location as I was thinking short a little bit more.

8. +1 tick, went BE+1 after it moved 12 ticks in positive direction. I expected more down, but was mis-reading bullishness.

9. -2 ticks, I realized this was heading up, so I manually exited.

10. NO FILL, this was a nice pivot that went for 25 ticks, but I kept chasing it and it wouldn't fill me. So, I waited patiently for the pullback and got on the last bar before a nice run down.

11. +13 ticks, Nice run, looked like it was coming to an end, so I exited before NEWS @ 10am (EST).

12. +0 ticks, I liked the look, but longer term was saying more up, so I exited.


I do have an ATM 'chase' for 1 tick if it hits my price and then goes it will move my entry by 1. This has helped me immensely on my entries.

I am expecting a nice short in the next couple days.

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  #80 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Here is my indicators.

If someone could help me figure a way to just export my background, indicators w/ settings, etc. then that would be great! I don't know how to do that with NT7.

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 max-td 
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indicators + their parameter-settings and also chart + back-colors are stored in the templates in NT - so if we have the indicators you have in your chart on our PC and you post the template, everything should be OK if we load the template.

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 bluemele 
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max-td View Post
indicators + their parameter-settings and also chart + back-colors are stored in the templates in NT - so if we have the indicators you have in your chart on our PC and you post the template, everything should be OK if we load the template.

I believe I uploaded those right?

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 bluemele 
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Hey all,

Anyone reading this. I contacted one of the better traders in the group that I am part of. He is going to see what it takes/costs to be a 'vendor' on the site. I believe that anyone interested should really talk to him as he is much better than I am.

I just watched a few of his live vid's (SHOWING A LIVE DOM) for the last 2 days (as I was behind a little on watching them) and he was up around 11K (estimate as I don't recall exactly). He is trading TF, CL & ES. Pretty good trader and has been doing it for 4 years. I am in my 14th month, so I don't feel as comfortable explaining to people what is right/wrong.

Until he gets on here, I just don't want to recommend anything to anyone or point anyone in a direction. Aloha!

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 bluemele 
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Today was an exceptional day.

I only made two mistakes, which are completely OK.

1. I scaled out too soon on my 1 contract, however, it was an area in which I would have scaled out had I had more, so it was my call.

2. I didn't get filled on the entry for the long. I could have jumped in a second earlier and been more aggressive as I was pretty certain a nice retrace was going to happen.

1st image is me through the trade. I was imagining I had more than 1 contract, so that is why I had 3 scaling out points.

I took the first trade premarket as it was very clear. The retracement happened yesterday up to 723 which was the 61% retracement. I expected a 76% which was 730+-. It did hit my 61% line within 2 ticks! Anyone who thinks fib's don't work don't know how to trade them.

When I looked premarket the 4181, daily, and several other MACD's looked short, short.

Trades:

1: NO TRADE, this looked good, but wanted confirmation, so I held off and was willing to let it go.

2: +17 ticks, double top pullback for a short. It was very very clear. Messed up on the scale out.

3: NO TRADE, this area looked good for a scale in and had I done a 5 tick boundary I would have stayed in.

4: NO TRADE, great looking trade!

5: NO TRADE, this looked like more down, but as you can see, market ranged for a bit.

6: NO FILL, I tried, but wasn't aggressive enough. It sat on my price and didn't give me a pullback that I felt good about, so I let it go. My wife took this for 2 points (20 ticks). Had I been filled, it would have hit all 3 targets with 2 of them being a H&S pattern @ 716.20, 716.9 and the 3rd being the 61% retracement area @ 718.5!

I could have held my original entry to 714.10 which was my target, however, I decided that my scale outs (3 scaling points which is what I originally learned) would have worked quite well at 717.5 area, 716.00 area, and 714.50 area.

The one big difference that I have re-learned is the importance of the 'story' and not just trading off the visual representation of the MACD's and smaller fib areas. I think the key is to setup a good story and follow it which is exactly what I did today. I had lost sight of that and how important it is.

My wife missed the first short that I took as she doesn't trade premarket, then she took the short right where I scaled out. My scale point wasn't great, as I am still playing with NT7 to do it better but I would normally have 5 ticks better.

I am going to switch to 3 contracts (goal is to get back up to 10 again) and once I am 2-3 points profitable, then I will go live again.

Had I traded with 3 contracts, my total profit in ticks for the day would have been 105 ticks (10.5 points) or 1,050.00 on 3 contracts. On 10 contracts = 305 ticks, 30.5 points, $3050.00 Let's get back there.

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  #85 (permalink)
Zchartist
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When trading the TF in a real environment (not simulated), are you able to get filled on limit orders within 1 or 2 hits ?

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  #86 (permalink)
 cory 
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bluemele View Post
Today was an exceptional day.

..

The one big difference that I have re-learned is the importance of the 'story' and not just trading off the visual representation of the MACD's and smaller fib areas. I think the key is to setup a good story and follow it which is exactly what I did today. I had lost sight of that and how important it is.
...

yes dont miss the forest for the trees but also at the same time dont miss the trees for the forest.

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 bluemele 
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Zchartist View Post
When trading the TF in a real environment (not simulated), are you able to get filled on limit orders within 1 or 2 hits ?

Yes and no. It completely depends upon the day. Some days it seems impossible as I miss out on several good entries!

However, typically because I am trading such a small amount of contracts when live that it does fill me. I buy/bid, sell/ask and so a lot of times, price has to move against me 1 tick to get filled if hitting the pivot. I more than many others do CHASE quite a bit and have an ATM to 'chase' 1 tick.

I will chase manually up to 3-4 ticks if I really like the entry.

One thing I noticed is that with ATC Brokers and Open E-cry combo, then no DEMO I get filled pretty easily. However, with Zen-fire and AMP futures on live feed (SIM account) I don't get filled quite often.

If I don't get filled, I do my best to get in on a deep retracement or basically a 23% fib retrace for a double bottom or a 76% retrace off the 23% back to the pivot. Of course, sometimes I predict incorrectly! haha....

I truly hope that the other traders get on here as I like this method, but really it is just another set of indicators and technique that I believe any technique will make lots of money if you stick with it long enough.

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 bluemele 
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Well, talk about a tough time trying to get entered. I hit my daily stop loss before I got to my pivot.

First time I was trading 3 contracts in a while, EVEN ON SIM, so...

Today had some big jumps and mostly probably due to Japanese holiday and obvious US HOLIDAY WEEK.

Whenever the market is like this, it will jump and getting a good entry is a bit of a challenge.

I was at the pivot and did end up hitting it, but too little too late and I will not count that and was just playing around at that point. I have to remember, to stop clicking and the DOM is real money, no matter what. DOM IS REAL, no DEMO in my brain.

Trades:

1. -6 ticks, probably should have held off as I was chasing it. Plus the 144 was saying no way jose!

2. -5 ticks, this wasn't at the area, but the bar setup looked good and I tried to get in lower. I was 3 ticks too high to stay in!

3. -5 ticks, Well, I thought it had hit bottom and I was ready for a run up! NOPE.

I went on to 'practice' which I could choose not to. I did end up hitting the pivot within 1 tick after 1 more gift to the market. It was quite jumpy and normally I would not trade this entire week. I believe I may just watch the market this week or trade Market Replay as the volume will be playing games.

At least I read the pivot area pretty well, just the 5 tick cost me today. It trended very nicely today! Nice smooth day, but I wasn't reading the pivots well enough. My mentor did a good live presentation and boy am I missing the boat. haha...

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  #89 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele View Post
...

Today had some big jumps and mostly probably due to Japanese holiday and obvious US HOLIDAY WEEK.

Whenever the market is like this, it will jump and getting a good entry is a bit of a challenge.
...
At least I read the pivot area pretty well, just the 5 tick cost me today. It trended very nicely today! Nice smooth day, but I wasn't reading the pivots well enough. My mentor did a good live presentation and boy am I missing the boat. haha...

Despite the apparent random behavior price moved in a very typical way. I think it's really important to have a clear picture of the market structure to better anticipate the various entry areas. See chart.

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  #90 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Despite the apparent random behavior price moved in a very typical way. I think it's really important to have a clear picture of the market structure to better anticipate the various entry areas. See chart.

Good point. Honestly, I didn't expect the market to go up so deeply yesterday and expected a continued decline.

Seems like today was repeat of yesterday! Did you trade those breakouts? I like trading breakouts, but I think you have to have larger stops and S&R lines aren't all that clear to me on exits.

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 bluemele 
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Ok, so today was almost identical in behavior to yesterday. I am starting to really notice how the market will move the same over and over again. It was somewhat relaxed till 10AM EST and then the market sped up, just like it did yesterday a bit.

Plus, there was an up, drop, then up up up, then drop drop drop drop.... Identical in behavior but different in points.

I was a bit 'stressed' and picked up on that this morning. My goal was not to make several gifts before I get a nice entry. That is why I closed out my first trade for a small profit. I knew it was going to retrace and I also figured that we would be doing a retrace up, but down seemed like the better direction to trade. I am still amused how the market moved up again, but seems to be dropping now pretty nicely.

I would also like to say that I appreciate others looking at this journal and reading it and hopefully finding tidbits of information. However, this is MY JOURNAL and it is FOR ME, and a good place to store my thoughts and feelings as to what I have done and my issues that others might be able to chime in on and see.

I have gotten a few requests via PM to share my mentor/system etc... I have no issues with that, but I do not want to present that my being on this forum has anything to do with marketing HIS system! I am marketing MY SYSTEM TO ME!!! haha...

Trades: (average per contract)

1. +0 ticks, I didn't take this trade!

2. +4 ticks, I scaled two contracts, then left the 3rd to -5 ticks as I saw a retrace coming.

3. +0 ticks, I didn't take this trade! Why, I don't know, I guess I was seeing more downside.

4. -5 ticks, well, long term looked short to me, and it was 50% area from retracement of prior area.

5. +0 ticks, I lost confidence in this one so I closed it out at BE.

6. -5 ticks, Ok, so it looked good to me again, but it was a mistake and I quickly realized it but it popped very quickly right before I exited at BE!

7. -3 ticks, My stop was just too small to handle the one last pop in here. I was thinking down, but it moved quickly and strong up to here, so I was losing confidence in the short.

8. +25 ticks, This was perfect. I probably entered a little early, but left a 2 tick stop in for a nice drop. I did scale my first two a bit early, but it was at the 50/61% area and it was picking up some support. I expected this thing to drop drop drop, but the 1597 started looking VERY strong, so I bailed on my last one and I think it was good. The news came out quickly thereafter.

The last trade on my trading results sheet was not a real trade and I was playing around with the interface for a BE.

The only things I would change today is that the long was pretty clear, but I hesitated a bit too long, but that is OK considering yesterday.

Other than that, I feel that my trading was sufficient.


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  #92 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Today was a day that I would never do live. So, why did I do it SIM? Well, I didn't, I did it on replay. haha..

My wife did it live, but I had to babysit, so...

I realized after looking at my chart that I would probably be profitable. Here is why:

1. The last trade I took, I got in really really late. That is because I had it on 3X speed because the market was moving a bit slow due to the Holiday. I tried getting in closer on the pivot, but 3x moved me too fast and I got a very late entry. I then went BE+1 and it just knocked me out. My target was 731.5 which it hit nicely, but I probably would have scaled one about halfway.

2. Had I traded like usual I would have stayed in the short (#3) instead of exiting so early. However, the volume was so light, I was getting a bit antsy and considering the Holidays I was ready to depart and take less risk.

Trades:

1. -4 ticks, Long term seemed like it needed a retrace.

2. -4 ticks, I thought this was the pivot! I was close.

3. +6 ticks, I was a bit bummed(ANXIETY) it just knocked me out and I was a bit cautious (FEAR) on getting in here, so that is why I was delayed by 5 ticks on my entry. It did seem short, but due to Holiday I thought the low volume could mess with me a bit.

4. -2 ticks, Looked like a pivot.

5. -3 ticks, This really seemed like an area so I figured I would see if I can hit the pivot.

6. -1 tick, This trade looked long, but I realized the longer terms were saying more down so I exited early.

UP ARROW, Looked like a good long was coming but not sure so just placed arrow.

UP ARROW, looked good, but still more down long term maybe.

7. +1 tick, I thought this was it, to my target but BE+1 knocked me out.

8. -4 ticks, this was a mistake. I actually didn't mean to click until the bar closed, but I sped up the replay to 3x so I would have probably been knocked out anyways, but with a smaller stop.

9. +1 tick, This would probably and most likely be +25 - +40 ticks average per contract. Due to 3x, I was a bit slow on clicking but in my mind I was in. It moved pretty fast at this pivot and this was my area 76% retracement to enter.

2 big mistakes today to turn it into a negative day.

1) scaled out WAY too soon and not enough confidence in my ability to see the patterns.

2) Never trade Major Pre-Holiday.

No trading on THUR or FRI. This by the way was a nice retrace to the 50% on the longer term charts!

The good is that I am really starting to understand again how important the long term charts are! I will only take trades when the long term charts say to. It sure saves a lot of headaches.

Something I am really digesting is setting up the long term patterns again in my head to formulate an entry on the short term timeframes. I haven't done this in months!

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  #93 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
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Ok, good trading today, although I wasn't paying attention to the longer term.

I had a decent enough short coming out of the open, and that was it for me today.

The market seemed 'weak', so I ignored the 987, 1597 and 4181. However, when it did pop back up and broke the high for the morning open I realized this could be a nice long and I would just watch it because overall I still feel the market is going to retrace some.

It did end up hitting the 76 retracement by the tick! But, the market was moving too slow to validate an entry for me. Volume is surprisingly higher than I expected.

I also traded the ES on the same entry, but I wish NT would put like a TAB on the control center so I can switch more quickly as I just put it at BE+1 as it takes me too long to keep switching back-n-forth.

I want to send a thank you to all the people who helped me transfer over to NT7 and it has been immensely beautiful! I am really enjoying it over TS and find myself more excited daily again.

Trades:

1. +12 ticks. Clear entry, but with a lot of separation on the big guys. If it doesn't bounce off and more down, then it will go higher and look for a new entry short at the 61 or 76 retracement.

Notice.. Only 1!!! Woooohooooo

Not a lot of ticks, and the real trade was the long and it was clear that was the direction, but my gut was telling me short.

Aloha!

---OH, the ES and FDAX trades were just experimentations and should be ignored.

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 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: TF
 
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I have been doing market replay consistently over the last 2 weeks since I moved to NT7.

It has helped me really learn more quickly and so happy I made the switch. There are still nuances that I don't like quite as well, as TS kind of glides very well and NT7 seems more like riding something mechanical.

My clarity is gaining and even though I am break even at the present, I do feel a turn coming back to profitability. My mentor is doing classes daily almost now and it is helping me mostly to understand what it takes to be profitable.

Also, another good trader from the group has been using NT7 with a REAL DOM on the vid's which has been very very inspiring to see someone pulling 1.5K to 6K daily out of the market! That makes me the happiest and I guess it is a form of weakness to have to see someone else doing it before I can believe it.

With Real Estate, I saw many people doing it ($$$) and it isn't something you can cover up easily. In this business there are WAY too many liars, thieves or whatever people want to call them.

Now the key is a couple months of consistent profits.

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  #95 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Today was a day of caution for me. I am not doing proper analysis with targets in either direction. That is the first thing I noticed on my trading as well as my lack of confidence.

The lack of confidence cost me good entries and also then the reason I left my trades too quickly.

1. -3 ticks, long term was saying up, so I jumped in. This was the 76% retracement area as well.

2. +8 ticks, Market jumped right when I pushed the button. Cost me about 3-4 ticks on entry. I then didn't feel comfortable being so far from the pivot so I exited very quickly. I would have been knocked out ON THE TICK, so I am glad I scaled out.

3. +2 ticks, LUCKY on this one. I scaled out at BE, but the market jumped right when I did it!

4. +4 ticks, LUCKY X 2 on this one! Same as last trade, but market jumped right when I clicked! Really lucky.

All-n-all, I have chosen to not let go and just let it be. Until I can do that, I will not get the better runs.

--EDIT: Tried to put in a video, but my video is too long and it was removed. haha... I guess I need max 10:00 or something. Trade faster!!!!

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 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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bluemele View Post
Today was a day of caution for me. I am not doing proper analysis with targets in either direction. That is the first thing I noticed on my trading as well as my lack of confidence.

The lack of confidence cost me good entries and also then the reason I left my trades too quickly.

1. -3 ticks, long term was saying up, so I jumped in. This was the 76% retracement area as well.

2. +8 ticks, Market jumped right when I pushed the button. Cost me about 3-4 ticks on entry. I then didn't feel comfortable being so far from the pivot so I exited very quickly. I would have been knocked out ON THE TICK, so I am glad I scaled out.

3. +2 ticks, LUCKY on this one. I scaled out at BE, but the market jumped right when I did it!

4. +4 ticks, LUCKY X 2 on this one! Same as last trade, but market jumped right when I clicked! Really lucky.

All-n-all, I have chosen to not let go and just let it be. Until I can do that, I will not get the better runs.

YouTube - 0020.avi

Any day you make money is a good day!!!

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 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Any day you make money is a good day!!!

Yes, my wife was up slightly better than me, but in my opinion, my understanding or reading of the market was better. I am just being critical of my performance.



Celebrate! haha..

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  #98 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Hi all,

Today was a day of bad habits creeping back in. I could feel the emotions as I traded which is really good. I could feel the anxiety, the 'anger' or the wanting to 'force' the market.

It was a bumpy day early on and I was expecting to have a similar day as yesterday so I was a bit more aggressive on the entries. I took a ton of trades and had I managed properly, I would have been up only a point or so. There is a nice trade happening now although I am worn out since I started pre-market today.

I felt the market was going to go down and that I would only take shorts, however, the shorts weren't too clear TO ME, so I decided to just hit the longs.

I have discovered some new methods to help me discover to 'wait' a bit for the right entry, or should I say rediscovered? Anyways, I didn't abide by the new technique and just kept going in, hence the # of trades and gifts.

Trades:

1. +6 ticks, This was a perfect setup, 76% on larger term, support on several MACD's! Woohoo... But, it was weak and quickly showed, so I exited soon.

2. -3 ticks, Thought I hit retracement pivot. Not too bad, just late.

3. -5 ticks, deep retrace, was at support on longer terms.

4. +5 ticks, Deep retracement off previous bottom, nice separation on longer time frames and near keltner with good bar setup. Scaled first one too quickly. 2nd scale out was good, I was heavily considering exit on last one at top. I was thinking short but for some reason didn't want to keep flipping.

5. -2 ticks, Same as #6.

6. -2 ticks, Area on retracement, bars closing up, etc. but not saying YES on the middle term MACD's.

7. -4 ticks, This was retracement area, but obviously not the right area. I thought it was a head off the previous shoulder.

8. NO FILL, gave up after it came back down. I wasn't as confident.

9. NO FILL, Glad I didn't get filled! This looked good to me.

UNLABELED TRADED, -3 ticks, I saw longs, which it was, but had one more move.

10. BE, this was a little bit of luck as it hit my stop, but market filled me 3 ticks higher. It moved lightning quick and I should have not been in here because of news. This could have cost me a few $$. This news comes 3 minutes prior then the public news and this one has cost me in the past!

11. -5 ticks, Chased it and just knocked out by 1 tick! This wasn't the right area anyways.

12. BE, I had it set at BE + 1, but slippage. I thought this would be down for sure, but News seems to be driving market up here.

13. NO FILL, Did my best get filled and waited for proper looking retracement.

14. +11 ticks, got in finally and was ready for a nice short. I scaled too early, but I wanted to be ready for the long.

15. -4 ticks, A little bit ahead of the gun. The shorter timeframes were saying NOT YET!

16. +1 ticks, Poor trading. Should have just kept my boundary.

17. NO FILL, Perfectly clear this was going up, but I kept moving up and it just didn't fill over and over.

18. +10 ticks, Ok, I was worn out mentally by this point. I saw long and was looking for a target up at 726.9 but I wanted to be done for the day. I believe it hit that price and it was the pivot down. This was the 50% on the 1597 retracement. I scaled too early on this and could have easily taken another +10 ticks per contract.

I am not trading as a professional, but I am taking it very seriously. Probably too seriously. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

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 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ATC/TT, AMP/Zen-Fire, AMP/CQG
Trading: TF
 
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Posts: 2,547 since Jun 2010
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This journal is keeping me focused.

It is weird how putting your trades out there somehow lets them go and maybe create babies with other trades? haha...

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 Tiger45 
San Diego, CA, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: CL, ES
 
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Posts: 309 since Sep 2010
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I don't know what your rules are, but it looks like when you hit a winner, price moved in your favor quickly and you took almost no heat. On your losers, you didn't have much MFE anyway, so you could have had much tighter stops. Have you tried tighter stops?

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