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Weeks like this you feel like changing everything around etc., but I will revisit the technique and I realized from my coach that I am trading all wrong again. I think we tend to move in a direction which doesn't suit us.
Let's see what next week brings.
Aloha!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yes, don't change everything (charts, indicators -- in other words "method, method, method") when the problem is nothing to do with method but everything to do with execution.
Now whether or not that is the case here, I don't know. By journaling why you entered and exit each trade, and then going back and reviewing that material, you should know the answer -- is the problem the method or the execution?
Ok, well, hmmm.... This is my journal, there is no other like it, this one is mine.. blah blah...
I went back to my Mentor's video's this weekend. It was an interesting watch and boy have I gone off the deep end with my trading. I am trading completely different then I used to and not even close to how I could choose to trade.
I haven't been focusing on the longer term trends, holding my trades (winners) long enough and just basically being comfortable. I went through my last 2 weeks videos (mixing them up so I didn't know which day was what) and on one day for example, instead of -1.0 points, I was +5.5 points! Big difference.
What I would like to do is move to Ninja Trader from TradeStation, but unfortunately their indiactors (and charts) don't allow you to move them vertically! If they did that on thing, I think they would have a lot more happy users, but for some reason they can't..... (EVEN IN NT7!...)
This would help me with practice and save me 250.00 per month!
-----TOMORROW----
It is loving this little range. My guess from a breakout perspective is that when it decides to move, it will move nicely.
First pic---
Weekly is on the rail, expect more up this week
Daily had separation, could bounce off for a nice bear flag but expect bullishness
50K says coming from underneath, but bands have a good distance so ranging is possible
2nd pic ---
4181 says more up, but separated but looking bullish
1597 is at resistace, and outside Keltner channel, this looks bearish
3rd Pic --- Price Action
144 tick, Way outside Keltner, expect retrace, as this is the largest gap I have seen for some time.
Not super clear for tomorrow thus far, but considering the big move, I would expect a retrace to come sometime and I hope it will wait for me tomorrow. I would enjoy that.
The only target that stands out for me currently is a reversal at 718.60 (weekly, 50% fib), 721.22 (daily, 88% fib) and possibly 716.15 (double top, 50K).
I choose to be happy with this, however, I deserve better implementation of my skills. Poor execution and a lack of confidence. I did a lot of studying this weekend and realized a great many things that I am not doing properly.
Trades:
1. -2 ticks, I expected only long today (I was right) and this looked like a nice starting off point, but the lower timeframes were a little bumpy.
2. NO FILL, glad I didn't get filled on this one! It ended up being a nice bear flag for a nice pointy head on a larger timeframe H&S.
3. +1 tick, Ok, this is what is mainly wrong with my trading. Two areas, 200MA, nice bar setup, but yet I let it come back and knock me out. I believed that if it retraced that it would come down to fill the gap and also the spread gap from yesterday. Hit me on the tick and I knew it when the 2nd bar of the dual bar setup closed so high up. I was patient and will wait for a retrace to get in.
4. NO FILL, this could have been filled had I kept my order in. I don't like to leave orders in for more than 10 seconds after it has closed up as it will usually come down more than I would like and I will try to reenter, but often times I miss out because I am 'fearful' and it retraces just to the tick.
5. +1 ticks, I saw the longer timeframes with nice separation and figured this could be a nice drop, but I was ignoring the daily and 50K charts which was saying up! Remember, no shorts today!
6. -4 ticks, OK, no shorts today? A lot of price action in this area and resistance and it go through it!
7. +16 ticks, This is not a bad counter-trend trade. The setup was clear and my management was flawless because I knew NEWS could push it back up.
Had I kept trade #3, I would have closed it most likely for 3.5 points since I am currently running only 1 contract. My focus this week is to trade WITH the trend, but you see again today that I decided to ignore that advice from myself.
Life is good, what an amazing opportunity to perform something like this.
bluemele, for what is worth. I use the ES to trade the TF or vice versa. They both complement each other very well. Today, i was waiting for price to hit last week high at 1193 and the strong 710 level on the RUSSELL. Both were hit approximately at the same time. The RUSSELL hit the nail at 710.2 while the ES was unable to hit 1193. Missed by one tick at 1192.75 (that was my first strong signal). I also use the initial balance (range of the first hour of trading). The average for ES was roughly 7.5 points. When the initial bal. range on the ES went above 7 pts, i was ready to fire on the RUSSELL as i knew the probability for a larger IB on the ES was somewhat limited since we were trading near last week high at 1193. My expectation was that price should go down. At least by 2 points on the RUSSELL.
I use both instruments more specifically when they hit a level of support/resistance almost simultaneously to time my entry. This produces the highest probability trade for me.
I studied MP for a few weeks (4) for 8 hours a day. The conclusion I came to was that it didn't show me anything that I couldn't get from another indicator. The IB trades, fading ledges etc.. all make complete sense, however for me, it just doesn't sing and I see too many confusing areas and I my intent is to not scalp for a few ticks and since I like the small stop and large reward it just isn't possible using MP.
I do use ES to help see if this is bull/bear and it usually helps! The technique I use is VERY discretionary and requires a lot of intuitive chart reading and not as much reliance on the indicators. Today could have easily been a +35 to +100 tick day.
I stopped trading before the big drop as they are just coming a bit later in time than I would like. I was just playing around after my entries that I posted and I hit the pivot at 710.00 on the nose. I closed it and called it a day (as I was playing), but it took me 9 ticks of gifts (just playing) to hit it which is ok, considering the 11 point drop!
I saw the short coming, but I am ahead of the game. Too much emotion.
Today was a good day in terms of points, however, it continues to show my lack of confidence and trading for points/money.
Trades:
1. -6 ticks, This was a 4 tick boundary, but it blew right by it. This was a questionable area, but I do believe that the market was going to head short. However, the daily and 50K charts were saying LONG!
2. -5 ticks, This was an 88% retracement area and the previous pivot hit the 76% on the nose, so I figured this could be it considering the semi-bar setup and outside keltner channel and some of the longer term MACDBB's were having substantial separation etc..
3. +10 ticks, Ok so this is the high of the day, the market only goes down from here, so why did I decide to extract 10 ticks and not wait for my target. BECAUSE I DIDN'T WANT IT TO RETRACE AND KNOCK ME OUT AND THEN I HAVE NO WAY TO PAY BACK MY GIFTS. Not the best attitude and until I can hold these, I will not go live! My target was at the head and shoulders which was also the 61% retracement area on the run from this morning. It would have netted me another 17 ticks but I decided that I am greedy and thinking about money. That was today, tomorrow I choose to think differently.
4. +0 ticks, this trade was questionable as it wasn't my area to invest in, but it was looking strong. I realized it was going to drop and pop a head for the H&S, so I got out luckily at BE!
5. +15 ticks, I felt the market was strong and I could choose to take longs. When it got to the pivot where I exited it just had too much separation on all the MACD's to look good.
6. +9 ticks, Another long opportunity and scaled out when weakness set in.
Preferably, if I were trading the way I was taught, I would have made the short @ 708.80 (trade #3) and just held it. The market has since dropped substantially.
My focus is for 2+ points per day for 20 trading days before I go live again. If I continue to scale scale scale, then I will only have more time till I go live.
Ok, losing day as far as "SIM" money is concerned, however, my trading I believe was much better.
I did 2 things poorly today:
1. Forcing, too many trades
2. Losing focus and just clicking
I took 17 trades today! Honestly, I considered stopping after my first big run, but that is why I am happy in that I was able to keep going looking for that elusive short which never actually happened for me, but it showed my focus.
I held my winning trades MUCH longer than I was ready to do and I am happy for that and it showed marked improvement. Also, the fact that I was willing to risk more to stay focused on my belief of what I am seeing is positive. CONFIDENCE.
I believe that FOMC would be a ranging day, so I don't know why I was thinking it was going to trend hard.
The 4181 looked so juicy that I was thinking it was going to fly down and give me 8-9 points.
Trades:
1. -5 ticks, I thought this was a trend continuation and the bb's were getting back underneath the bands, so I figured we had more down.
2. +0 ticks, This was the 50% retrace, but it was a bull-flag.
3. +0 ticks, Still focused on the 4181 with massive separation, I thought this 61% retracement would be the area.
4. -4 ticks, I thought this was a pullback for more down.
5. -3 ticks, This area seemed good, it was a couple areas of extension and retracements.
6. +20 ticks, This was just a reentry of my earlier gift. I am VERY PROUD of this because normally I would have went to BE and it would have knocked me out or I would have scaled for 10 ticks or something. I held it, focused on trade maximization. I considered stopping for the day, but I thought there was a retrace coming with more down. I was right, but didn't think it would be after a 3 point gain.
7. -3 ticks, This was just a poor entry. Too eager to hit the short.
8. -5 ticks, This was a nice bar setup but I chased it and I had to have the entire 5 tick boundary in place to accommodate the trade. It is ok.
9. -4 ticks, Lots of ranging motion, slowdown, I liked the short look and the area was the 76%.
10. +0 ticks, This was a good looking entry and I held it for 7 minutes while it ranged. News was coming so I went BE+1 and it knocked me out at BE.
11. NO FILL. News was moving the market and when I clicked to buy bid the bar had already moved down 8 ticks! It wasn't the pivot anyways.
12. -5 ticks, This is where I got off focus and was just playing around. I was upset at my poor performance of the past 3 gifts and the BE, so I was forcing the market.
13. -4 ticks, Same as last trade.
14. -1 ticks, This looked good, but it just kept going up up up.
15. -3 ticks, Again, this looked yummy to me, but I lacked confidence to stick with it.
16. -3 ticks, Same as last trade. CONFIDENCE wasn't good and I was a little bit emotional over the ranging market and my interpretation of the direction.
17. +24 ticks, THIS WAS AN EXCELLENT TRADE, and I hit it off the pullback. I honestly was thinking this could easily be another gift as the MACD's didn't seem to be exceptionally clear to me this morning. I closed this when it got within 1 point of my target. I was happy to make back some gifts and was tired of staring at the ranging market.
The market is currently 1 point below my target but I don't trade that long.
It was a great day as I haven't been holding my trades more than a few ticks. This time I stuck with my trades, and held them. I was too aggressive (by far), but that can be worked out very easily.
If they did that on thing, I think they would have a lot more happy users, but for some reason they can't..... (EVEN IN NT7!...)
