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TF day trading

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  #861 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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cory View Post
maybe for each 3 successful short targets you give yourself 1 long target.

We don't do 'fixed targets' as I don't think that is the best way to trade for me right now.

I used to do scaling when trading multiple contracts and that is one method to get the longer runs, but what I found after doing a lot of research is that either staying all in or getting all out is much more profitable for me from the trades I took.

I think the big thing mentally for me is letting my eyes see continuation trades and being OK. I do sometimes, but lately the market has been fooling me a bit. Which is fine, but really just the goggles I am currently wearing.

Thanks for the recommendation though.

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  #862 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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I wanted to add an equity based trading chart to the mix here. This could be useful to some and something I will use in the future if I ever get the point of profitability over a longer term period. (These are my day totals over the last 8 months or so)

This chart shows how if your equity goes below a certain moving average of the same amount, then you go SIM mode until you break above again. I think this type of system is critical in mechanical system, but probably not as useful in super-discrtionary like the one I trade unless you go into a slump.

It is kind of like benching yourself when you suffer from a losing streak.


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  #863 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Ok, now here is a chart where the 'orange' shows the actual profits. What a difference eh...

I am thinking this is really a great concept for slumps. For mechanical trading this could be perfect.




EDIT: Just replaced chart, had calculation error and this one isn't as pretty as the last. Orange is 5 day MA, Green is 20 day MA.

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  #864 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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I also realized how little value this may actually be considering the consistency that I have had. After further review, I am thinking this would do little to my trading. Still very interesting for an automated type system which I don't do anymore.

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  #865 (permalink)
 vovan348 
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bluemele View Post
Horst chimed in over the weekend and gave me some guidance and he is right on. I am focused too much on the short term which is fine, but if I focus on honing in on the larger areas then my chances of getting a nice runner are better.

I'm glad that I'm not the only one who think that way. Haha...

I think you can do very well with trailing your stop. Some days you can get 5 points that way. If it took you out with 2-3 points you still win. It's win win situation. I feel much better as soon as I don't have any money in risk. I think that would be a better way for me also. I'm just not sure yet. I have to be more aggressive with my management and do not let those 3-5 pointers to take me out with one tick.

The way I'm thinking you can always get back in when pull back is over, but it's always a problem to find the right entry again (at least for me).

I understand why you move your stop to BE+1 right away. I know it because I've done it so many times. You wanna take the risk of the trade and relax trailing your stop locking in more and more profit. I've been doing it until I realized one thing: It should take me out if I was wrong. If it took me out with +1 tick because it was dancing around my entry point, I would get in again. Most likely I'm gonna get worse entry and take risk again. So for me it's better to see price moving away from my entry area first and then move my stop instead of taking risk few times at the same area. If it took me out I have to wait for another area.
Yes you can take a few trades at the same area and all of them with +1 tick, but there is a chance that you can miss the move and be out with a few ticks because it took all your trades out and moved too far to reenter.

This is just the way I'm thinking. Maybe I'm wrong, but it makes sense to me.
(This is not an advice, just something to think about)

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  #866 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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vovan348 View Post
I'm glad that I'm not the only one who think that way. Haha...

I think you can do very well with trailing your stop. Some days you can get 5 points that way. If it took you out with 2-3 points you still win. It's win win situation. I feel much better as soon as I don't have any money in risk. I think that would be a better way for me also. I'm just not sure yet. I have to be more aggressive with my management and do not let those 3-5 pointers to take me out with one tick.

The way I'm thinking you can always get back in when pull back is over, but it's always a problem to find the right entry again (at least for me).

I understand why you move your stop to BE+1 right away. I know it because I've done it so many times. You wanna take the risk of the trade and relax trailing your stop locking in more and more profit. I've been doing it until I realized one thing: It should take me out if I was wrong. If it took me out with +1 tick because it was dancing around my entry point, I would get in again. Most likely I'm gonna get worse entry and take risk again. So for me it's better to see price moving away from my entry area first and then move my stop instead of taking risk few times at the same area. If it took me out I have to wait for another area.
Yes you can take a few trades at the same area and all of them with +1 tick, but there is a chance that you can miss the move and be out with a few ticks because it took all your trades out and moved too far to reenter.

This is just the way I'm thinking. Maybe I'm wrong, but it makes sense to me.
(This is not an advice, just something to think about)

Yes, of course, this makes complete sense.

There is two decisions when I consider moving my stop.

1. Long term decision to preserve capital. Guided by FEAR and Uncertainty. Is this bad, well it depends right...

2. Short term decision to preserve capital. I believe the market has/is changing its mind.

I did some analysis and I would have been more profitable had I:

1. Savored my entries better by producing less of them!

2. Holding my trades for my intended targets.

However, there are those market conditions that really affected my way of trading. Over the last 2 years doing the same system I have come to realize that the indicators don't always say the same thing and it is a Micro/Macro decision that must be made.

For instance, from Nov-->Jul you pretty much had straight up and a good portion of the time you had HUGE separation, beautiful "AREA's" and boom boom boom straight through them. So at first, I thought it was me. Then I started watching the lack of NFT video's coming out and I wondered, ok, maybe it isn't me. It was pounded in my head always trust the indicators, but the indicators speak a different language dependent upon market conditions.

It is like the indicators are the same person at the Party, but sometimes they are dancing wildly, while other times they are just groovin. So, the key was to realize that current market conditions tend to be LONG, so if I take those entries as LONG picture instead of short, then I will most likely have better success.

So, I learned how to interpret better, but there is always that uneven curiosity saying, "Is it this time" or do I always trust it blindly and go for it and the numbers point to a win. Well, I can tell you that it depends "in my opinion".

I do believe that is why it takes longer to trade and learn than most people think. Different markets require different interpretation to a certain point to be the most profitable. If markets are dropping like crazy, then the best trades will probably be your shorts.

Now, the challenge for me is that trend continuation trades with the MACDBB is WAYYYYYY harder to recognize than a reversal from a long trend. So, technically you end up counter-trend trading but it could be enough for a nice 4-5 points so what is the concern right?

All part of the confusing journey and I think in the end, you just get a 'feel' for how the market 'handles' considering which surface of road you are driving your tractor down.

Nobody is right or wrong in my opinion, just a difference of opinion and timing is the only thing separating the truth.

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  #867 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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OK, 1 shot, 1 kill.

I did not hold my trade to my target. I understand why now as it did look like it was setting up for a long and I was considering reversing my direction, but that is no excuse.

I was confused between which target the 100% or the 76% or neither. In hindsight, splitting it down the middle wouldn't have been bad, but to me the market was looking bullish so exiting wasn't too terrible.

Now, why did I stop trading? Hmmmm. Good question. I would have been up another 15 points had I continued.

CONFIDENCE. After a tough last week, I didn't feel great about what the market conditions may be like, so I decided to be cautious. Is it caution from FEAR of being wrong, FEAR of losing, etc.. Of course...

Until I can break those 3 habits of not holding my trades, not continuing to trade clear setups and not moving my stops, I will not be ready for prime time.

Video

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  #868 (permalink)
 vovan348 
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Great job today!!!

Not just because of your first trade. You called a lot of pivots today. Some mistakes here and there, but you cannot expect to be right every time.

I am really impressed!!! Seems like you got it back together!!!

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  #869 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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vovan348 View Post
Great job today!!!

Not just because of your first trade. You called a lot of pivots today. Some mistakes here and there, but you cannot expect to be right every time.

I am really impressed!!! Seems like you got it back together!!!

I went back through last weeks vid's and I realized to me it was mainly market conditions and my poor trading habits combined for the "PERFECT STORM". Large ranging with large spreads and big bars. Caustic cocktail for my trading style.

The trade I 'regret' not taking is my 2nd arrow LONG. I figured it could retrace and knock me out, but boy was that beautiful. No regrets, tomorrow is another day.

Thanks for the compliment, but still struggling with poor habits. I guess this is a journey right.

HighRise did pretty well too. He is getting much better already.

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  #870 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Ok, well what a confusing day for me. Up/down/up/down...

I didn't get the best run of the day which I marked in the video, but so goes life right. Sometimes you miss the move you wanted and of course it always looks so much better after it passed.

I almost stopped trading at +.4 points today. I was 90% there, but decided that I wanted to earn some money.

Bernanke speaking along with me being groggy led to this in my opinion. I push myself to trade daily, but some days I just don't feel like trading and this was one of them.

Video

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