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TF day trading

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  #31 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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bluemele
Why not look at The Three Setups thread and do the inside bar on CL? I had a totally different method that I tried to make work on ES but I just could not be consistent. When I saw Jeff's method, it clicked with me. I suggest doing it sim for 3 days alongside your current method and then compare the results. If I read correctly, your daily goal is $200 or $1000/week. In all honesty, the market will give enough opportunities on IBs to come close to those numbers.....you just have to be willing to tolerate larger stops....
Papa15

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  #32 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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papa15 View Post
bluemele
Why not look at The Three Setups thread and do the inside bar on CL? I had a totally different method that I tried to make work on ES but I just could not be consistent. When I saw Jeff's method, it clicked with me. I suggest doing it sim for 3 days alongside your current method and then compare the results. If I read correctly, your daily goal is $200 or $1000/week. In all honesty, the market will give enough opportunities on IBs to come close to those numbers.....you just have to be willing to tolerate larger stops....
Papa15

I have traded probably 40+ 'systems' and toyed with IB's also. I think I have discovered the Holy Grail at least 10,000 times. The thing that I am most interested is to stick with something that works.

I agree with you on the IB's though, the simpler the better, but RR has to be right so I will continue to play with it. Right now market conditions for my trading at 9:30 to 10:15 are not ideal, but typically this isn't the case and time will tell. I have been trading this method for over 1 year and I went from wildly profitable to terrible (With real $$). I have lost a lot more though on mechanical systems due to the confidence they can create or 'avoid'.

I like the breakouts from Al Brooks also. I have been doing very good on those and I wanted to add the IB's to that.

Today I was playing around with GAP fills during news time. haha.. Something I used to do over a year ago and got killed! -500.00 on 2 contracts.

For now, I will stick to my technique, and focus on the IB's and breakouts on CL to get better on SIM.

I will be back live on the TF in a few weeks most likely. Who knows, this could take me many more years, but I would rather stick with just a few techniques than too many.

Thank you for the recommendations though and it is greatly appreciated.

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  #33 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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bluemele View Post
How are you deciding where those points are? I typically use HIGH VOLUME AREAS which are pretty evident from price action, S & R (basic, no pivot point calc's), fibs, trend lines, keltner, 200MA, etc.....

Seems you are using volume, channels, Pivots, MA's etc..

Why do you take those trades? Or did you take those trades?

Regarding the Pitchfork's, it's something i use as it's my belief price moves in an orderly fashion following action/reaction lines that conform to the 50% ratio (median line). I stick to this ratio as it moves twice as slow as price giving me times to make plans. For example, if price moves 50 ticks the mid point will be 25 but if it moves 10 more ticks at 60 ticks the mid point will become 30 etc. +5 versus +10 for price. The 50% ratio is a typical target whether it be in a move forward or backward in the case of a retracement. But it's more than this, it's the path followed by price.

Here are some examples of the 50% ratio in action on the ES:

A) 1180.25 middle of a swing that occured Wednesday during the night. In the end, this is where price made a high during the regular trading hours, almost to the tick at 1180.50.

B) The segment going from 1180.25 down to 1174.25 projected below gave us 1168.25. Price this day made a low 2 ticks away from this number at 1167.75.

C) A Low was made during the Globex session October 28, 2010. The segment going from 1167.75 to 1177.50 projected above gave us 1187.25. The overnight High hit 1187.50, 1 tick away from our projected 50% ratio.

D) The middle point of the initial balance (1st hour of trading) oftentimes serves as a retracement area later on the day. Here the 50% of the IB is 1181.75. Where did price go ? 1182.25, 2 ticks away from the initial balance mid point.

E) The regular trading hours Low was established on October 28 when price hit 1173.50. What was there ? Y-Mid or Yesterday middle point at 1174.13 or .25 rounded. Again 3 ticks away from it.

I could go on and on. Always the same story that repeats every day. The power of the 50% ratio is a key to understand the march forward of price action.




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  #34 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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bluemele View Post
I have traded probably 40+ 'systems' and toyed with IB's also. I think I have discovered the Holy Grail at least 10,000 times. The thing that I am most interested is to stick with something that works.

I agree with you on the IB's though, the simpler the better, but RR has to be right so I will continue to play with it. Right now market conditions for my trading at 9:30 to 10:15 are not ideal, but typically this isn't the case and time will tell. I have been trading this method for over 1 year and I went from wildly profitable to terrible (With real $$). I have lost a lot more though on mechanical systems due to the confidence they can create or 'avoid'.

I like the breakouts from Al Brooks also. I have been doing very good on those and I wanted to add the IB's to that.

Today I was playing around with GAP fills during news time. haha.. Something I used to do over a year ago and got killed! -500.00 on 2 contracts.

For now, I will stick to my technique, and focus on the IB's and breakouts on CL to get better on SIM.

I will be back live on the TF in a few weeks most likely. Who knows, this could take me many more years, but I would rather stick with just a few techniques than too many.

Thank you for the recommendations though and it is greatly appreciated.

I have tried many, many different systems and instruments. I have tried scalping and other techniques. I have been to chat rooms galore. I have been at this for 4 years. I don't want to think about how much $$ have wasted.....all that to say the IB is NOT the holy grail. But it is a simple system that does work. It has kept me afloat the last 5 months. If I had done nothing but IBs, I would be much better off. I posted yesterday I had taken 67 IB trades, but that is not all the setups that were there. I expect it was at least 2x that number and maybe 3x. Forget the R:R. Do it on sim next week and compare the results vs your current system. If it does not equal or beat it, then if we ever meet, I will owe you a small liquid confectionery of your choice .
Papa15

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  #35 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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By IB i suppose you mean the initial balance, don't you ?

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  #36 (permalink)
 papa15 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
By IB i suppose you mean the initial balance, don't you ?

No, in this case it is inside bar. It is from the Three Setup thread by Jeff Castille.
Papa15

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  #37 (permalink)
 bluemele 
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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papa15 View Post
I have tried many, many different systems and instruments. I have tried scalping and other techniques. I have been to chat rooms galore. I have been at this for 4 years. I don't want to think about how much $$ have wasted.....all that to say the IB is NOT the holy grail. But it is a simple system that does work. It has kept me afloat the last 5 months. If I had done nothing but IBs, I would be much better off. I posted yesterday I had taken 67 IB trades, but that is not all the setups that were there. I expect it was at least 2x that number and maybe 3x. Forget the R:R. Do it on sim next week and compare the results vs your current system. If it does not equal or beat it, then if we ever meet, I will owe you a small liquid confectionery of your choice .
Papa15

Ok, how big can my beer be? haha...

I will evaluate more seriously. Thanks for the direction and guidance.

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  #38 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
Regarding the Pitchfork's, it's something i use as it's my belief price moves in an orderly fashion following action/reaction lines that conform to the 50% ratio (median line). I stick to this ratio as it moves twice as slow as price giving me times to make plans. For example, if price moves 50 ticks the mid point will be 25 but if it moves 10 more ticks at 60 ticks the mid point will become 30 etc. +5 versus +10 for price. The 50% ratio is a typical target whether it be in a move forward or backward in the case of a retracement. But it's more than this, it's the path followed by price.

Here are some examples of the 50% ratio in action on the ES:


I agree with you. Price is predictable. You brought up a good point in that I trade multi-time frames and utilize those calculations, but I am not actually TRADING those time-frames. More like just blocking it out and ignoring them. I have hit all my targets this week except today (which I didn't evaluate) by within 1 point and usually by the tick or by a couple ticks. But, my decision to trade only 9:30 - 10:15 keeps me fresh and hungry.

What do you do for your trades, do you have a journal on all of this?

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  #39 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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-1.6 points (16 ticks) >>>> SIM

Ok, told myself to take longs in the morning, failed to follow my plan. Funny how that happens. You set up a plan and then when the market opens you disconnect and click click click.

This is the worst week I have had in weeks. Partly the method/market and mostly me.

My technique of limiting my losses is working well though. Like today, I would have stayed in and probably lost a lot more money.

Had I been doing longs, I think I would have profited nicely.

Trades:

1. -3 ticks, I clicked on this @ 697, but market jumped on me, so I got a low fill and I don't k now why I clicked? Nice setup, but wrong direction!

2. +1 tick, had some profit here, but market was ranging up. Again, wrong direction as 4181 was clearly headed north.

3. +0 ticks, I thought this was a good looking entry, BUT it was not the right area, so shame on me.

4. -2 ticks, THIS was a good area, but I was EARLY and I knew it when I clicked.

5. NO FILL, I just didn't get filled, this was a nice trade my wife got for 8 ticks when it started coming back.

6. NICE AREA DIDN'T CLICK. I didn't have a fib area, or keltner or MA, so I stayed out, but it did look good.

7. -4 ticks, 144 MACD was saying don't go in yet!

8. -5 ticks, this looked better, but high risk. Just knocked me out by the tik and went for a little bit and then a big retrace.

9. NO FILL, OK, this sat on my price for a few seconds, and stuff like this kills me emotionally. So, I reached my daily limit and stopped for the day.

One thing though is that I figured it was long and mostly took shorts today. WHY is the question. I guess I like days of giving away money.

I anticipate next week to be a prosperous and boring trading week.

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  #40 (permalink)
 Tiger45 
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bluemele View Post
-1.6 points (16 ticks) >>>> SIM

This is the worst week I have had in weeks. Partly the method/market and mostly me.

Hang in there...

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