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TF day trading

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  #11 (permalink)
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Big Mike View Post
Don't know, don't care (not in terms of how to trade).

Don't allow yourself to form a bias of what the market "should" be doing. Just focus on what the market "is" doing. I used to say "anticipate, but do not predict". The point is you should be prepared, you should know exactly what will trigger a position in/out, but you should not care one way or the other if it is long or short, up or down, and don't worry about what happens tomorrow --- not if you are a scalper or day trader. Swing trader, sure

Mike

Mike,

Very good point! You are 100% right in the 'should' department. Forcing the market is not possible, and honestly, something I think every trader deals with. I do swing trade, however not in futures (FOREX) but they are all related.

I will do my best to 'anticipate' and not predict.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Experience: Intermediate
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Ok!!! - 2 tks for the day after commissions. (-$20.00)

Well, if I had my way of things (which I do, but I haven't convinced myself of that yet completely!), then I would have made even today a profitable trade.

I didn't see the longs and I though short, short, short.

Trades:

1: +0 ticks, no fill on nice bar setup and a clear long

2: +0 ticks, this trade stayed around too long for a BE, so I closed it at cost of commission

3: -3 ticks, I believed today was a short day (which it did at 11:00) so this was the first of many shorts.

4: +1 ticks, This was a nice drop and I thought I was all clear, was considering closing at 1 pt. as I saw the bounce, but it moved too quickly for me.

5: -3 ticks, too early.

6: -4 ticks, Nice entry, but just poppsed me out! Had I the full 5 tick stop in then I would have been OK.

7: +11 ticks, I saw the short and barely held it through a retrace and it definitely seemed like it was going to do a nice retrace, so I closed it. Had I traded more than 1 contract, I would have held.

8: -3 ticks, I though for sure the MACD's were telling me to go south.

9: -1 ticks, I exited this at breakeven, but it filled me at -1 ticks. Still thinking short.

10: + 5 ticks, exited as retrace seemed large.

11: -1 ticks. From trade 10 to 11, I was confused where all the energy was coming from. It was jumping and popping and there wasn't anymore news on my schedule so I was very confused and stayed out of the market.

I have noticed on the last couple weeks on a down day that the market will actually move up in the NY session, then drop after 10:30, 11:00 or 1pm.

I don't know what that means from a professional money or dumb money standpoint, but it seems to me they are building it up, then letting the steam out for profits? Buy buy buy,.... hehe... ok, everyone isn't watching, SELL SELL SELL!!!

I have been quick to jump on the South movement, but way too early lately. I do not trade all day, so days like this, I don't get the beautiful runs.

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  #13 (permalink)
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A comment about your last statement. Have you noticed the shakeouts this weeks in the TF. Just look closely at your chart you posted. There are large shakeouts right before the huge moves all week. Huge volatility this week over weeks past. If you don't get on the train, it's off and will not stop.

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  #14 (permalink)
Honolulu, Hawaii
 
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farmerjohn View Post
A comment about your last statement. Have you noticed the shakeouts this weeks in the TF. Just look closely at your chart you posted. There are large shakeouts right before the huge moves all week. Huge volatility this week over weeks past. If you don't get on the train, it's off and will not stop.

Yes, exactly. My system doesn't do as well during these types of runs. I limit my losses, but my stops are not big enough to withstand and I have to take lots of itty bitty trade.

I believe the market is showing weakness. Fundamentally, I don't understand why it would be trading so high considering the current spate of news and the reality of the situation. Usually when I think like this, I end up seeing a big retracement at the end of the rainbow.

The daily is saying it could go north, but most likely headed down. If it runs tonight up, then I am pretty certain that I will be going to be looking for shorts tomorrow. It could do a nice trendline bounce down FROM around 704-ish.

My 50K tick chart is telling me UP!

4181 is up but weak
1597 is down strong

Tomorrow is another day

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  #15 (permalink)
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Yes, TGIS = "Thank God I am SIM"

+8 ticks today on 1 contract SIM

two issues with my trading:

1. Stop trading bar setups on 144 tick, it is most times worthless unless all my other signs are a go!

2. Stop pulling the trigger every 5 seconds and forcing an area.

My wife did very well today up +30 ticks and after +15 yesterday she is much smoother and going back to live very soon.

Trades:

1. +1 tick, wow, talk about a poor timing to close it, but I thought it was going to bounce me out. My wife held it.

2. +1 tick, knocked me out then went south again, but after that I probably would have been +1 anyways.

3. -4 ticks, I was thinking short and I had a nice bar setup, but MACD's were telling me wait!

4. -1 tick, same, bar setup, but MACD's saying WAIT!

5. +0 ticks, this looked decent to me, but 610 tick MACD was saying wait.

6. -3 ticks, I wasn't even looking at my indicators. Stuck at looking at chart and forcing area.

7. -4 ticks, SEE Trade #6!

8. +14 ticks, Decent trade, but the real pivot was just before that when it exited the Keltner channel but I was too busy marking up my gifts! I exited perfectly though.

9. -5 ticks, this knocked me out in a matter of seconds, mostly off the nice bar setup I had and that is not my trading style.

10. +15 ticks, Ok, this was a mediocre trade. WHY, it was my most profitable. Because I didn't scale/exit properly. This was screaming short, and there was more here, but because I am only trading one contract, it was too hard for me to stay in after it hit the 50% retracement and the slowdown, and the keltner midpoint and some separation from MACDBB on smaller timeframes. I would have held this for at least another 1.8 ticks had I been trading properly.

All-n-all, not a bad week. My new rules of stopping after either 3 gifts or -150.00 has worked well for me. In August I had a few 8 gifts in a row that hurt my profits as I was revenge trading! haha...

I saw glimmers of revenge trading today (just a hint) and also a bit of "I don't want to miss it" and with a sprinkle of "This IS the area!".

My current goal is to be +2 points daily before I go live for at least 2 months. From my current trading situation, this seems a bit far out. However, in June I was about 1.8/1.9 per day for over a month.

My wife will go live after 1 point per day for a month. We could sure use the success!


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  #16 (permalink)
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Ok, due to poor trading early on, I broke today into 2 days for more sim time.

Day 1 = -1.55 points (-15.5 ticks)
Day 2 = +.55 points (+5.5 ticks)
Total = -1.00 points (-10 ticks)

I am over-trading! Current market conditions are not ideal for my technique, so I am ending up with a lot of trades and little in return.

The market has been moving almost identically for the last several days. UP UP UP, then @ 10:30 or 11:00 roughly the market falls out nicely. I would have taken the short @ 10:28, however, market was moving too slow for me so I decided to stop for the day.

Trades:

#1: +1 ticks, Premarket, looked good, but got filled 3 ticks below as I couldn't get filled, volume was really light.
#2: -3 ticks, again taking the bar setup a bit too serious.
#3: -3 ticks, thought this was a pullack for more down.
#4: -5 ticks, outside keltner, 50% area on fib, as good as any area.
#5, -1 ticks, looked great, but market just didn't want to go down so I exited.
#6, -3 ticks, again with the bar setup! Market didn't go down, exited on own.
-- AT THIS POINT, I REACHED MY THRESHOLD OF TRADING FOR THE DAY, STARTING NEW DAY
#7, + 1 tick, it didn't want to drop, so I exited.
#8, -3 ticks, looked good on MACD's, but not an area.
#9, -5 ticks, this is the same as #8 trade, I actually pressed short at the top of the bar @ 712, but it dropped quickly on me and I got filled below. Today was a challenge with jumping and fills.
#10, +0, same @s #8,#9, looked good on MACD's, but moved to BE when separation occurred on 144.
#11, +14 ticks, News was moving the market again as Existing Home Sales exceeded expectations. I was lucky to get into this one as the market was moving quite quick. I would have held had I traded more than 1 contract.
#12, +0, No fill, this was a good looking retrace and refill. However, I couldn't get filled as the bar dropped just after I pressed enter and it did come back up and retrace, but I chickened out.

Ok, so 12 trades! I actually had a couple of extra trades that didn't get filled or I canceled. They wouldn't have really made much either. My wife did well with +0. haha... She took one trade and it hit her stop @ BE.

I am way too eager to trade. My focus for tomorrow will to watch several good trades go and not click. My # of trades could be a max of 2-3 for a very lucrative trading day.

Weekly is on the rail, daily is forming a bear flag (MACD's), 50K is looking bullish but could drop for a nice bear flag, 4181 & 1597 are unclear at this time. I will check back in at close of market to evaluate what I believe the market wants to show me for tomorrow.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Ok, looking at the charts tonight. Low volume again, and it seems like it likes the range from 690-710.

The longer it stalls out, the longer that my MACD's will show divergence or more of it. So, either:

A) The market is stalling out for a big push coming.

B) The market is stalling for a massive fall.

Either way, I do not care as my trading is neutral.

Weekly = on the rail, looking long but with some separation evident
Daily = short or weak and creating a bear flag, but still up in trend.
50K = Nice bear flag OR, a drop and then a nice big pop North is possible.
4181/1597 tick = long tonight but trend is down.

TF followed same pattern. Run up in morning, fall out in afternoon.

Wow. I just did the same exact thing over and over expecting different results. I guess that is good as I am consistent!

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  #18 (permalink)
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-10.5 ticks for the day including commissions.

I think I know what I am doing wrong with my trading this week. I am not focusing enough on what the longer term charts are telling me. I have been counter-trend trading now for over week and it is not working well for me.

I am cutting my winners but also cutting my losers quickly which is what is saving me. I woke up late this morning and had issues with charts downloading data. I didn't set up a story for my trading today which is always a losing proposition.

Trades:

#1 -4 ticks double bottom area, and I thought it would retrace to the 50% fib.
#2 +11 ticks, this was a good trend continuation trade as I was having problems with my charts on the longer time frame.
#3 -1 tick, I thought we would continue back down, so this is as good a place as any.
#4 -2 ticks, before news, stalled out market, and I realized that this was probably going North after a bar or two.
#5 -2 ticks, outside keltner, nice top but the 'head' knocked me out.
#6 -6 ticks, same as last trade, but this blew by my stop.
#7 -3 ticks, Again, thinking short. 1597 and 4181 were saying more up, but I completely ignored them!

Too many trades, ignoring long term time frames, and not creating a story for prediction of what I will do in advance. Also, was not taking my trades in major areas.

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  #19 (permalink)
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One of the best TF traders I know is a moderator on Hamzei Analytics HFT chat room. She has had some webinars which are available on their website. She is an always in trader who often takes between 10-20 points (100-200 ticks) per contract every day.

This is FYI only. Everyone has their own style but she is good, really good.

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bluemele View Post
-10.5 ticks for the day including commissions.

I think I know what I am doing wrong with my trading this week. I am not focusing enough on what the longer term charts are telling me. I have been counter-trend trading now for over week and it is not working well for me.

I am cutting my winners but also cutting my losers quickly which is what is saving me. I woke up late this morning and had issues with charts downloading data. I didn't set up a story for my trading today which is always a losing proposition.

Ok, so stop for a moment, look around, take a deep breath.

If you've identified this as your biggest problem, then the next step is for you to kraft a specific action plan to combat the problem. You need to be very specific. To get you going, you might consider putting a post-it note on your monitor next to your DOM that says "WHAT DO THE LONGER TERM CHARTS SAY??". Without knowing your specific method I can't give you more than that, but the point is to write a memorable message. You need to also write something like "IF YOU TRADE AGAINST THE BIGGER PICTURE, YOU ARE AN IDIOT" or whatever floats your boat. The point here is you need a reminder of what NOT following your rules looks like, what it does, what it causes.

Then work on this item or two items every single day for a two week period. Grade yourself daily on how well you executed on these two "post it note" items that you come up with. Don't worry about the net result of the trade itself, just focus on execution. The goal is at the end of the two week period you can look back and say this is now no longer your problem, and you move on to another problem.

I also strongly suggest reading the last two weeks of your journal, post by post, trade by trade, at the end of each week. It will help you reflect and determine if you are running in circles or actually going somewhere

Mike

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