Today, is my daughters 4th birthday. That means, she gets up at 2am to tell me she wants to go outside and see the moon. That means, by 4am I am so freaking beat even though I didn't take her out to see the moon that I didn't want to wake up and trade. haha...
I saw some pressure today to go up, but it seemed like it was running out of steam, so I was looking for short for a nice little retrace counter to the longer term trend. The best trade would have been long where I marked, but I didn't want to go against my existing trade as well as the larger term MACDBB.
the market finally did drop a bit as I watch it now,but I didn't see that coming so late.
I did a good job of waiting a bit for my entries, but my first two were probably too aggressive. Waiting for the 'head' to pop would have been a good idea, or even going for the long would have been the wiser move.
I am content with my trading and my management of the largest winning trade I thought was pretty good. I would have liked to stay in that and had it hit my target, but oh well.
I was thinking a retrace to 50% or lower than it went and then higher higher higher, but I was wrong.
(For the last month I am only counting SIM101 account for what counts 'live' or not) I truly hope to get to a point of at least 1.5 per day average. That would be nice.
Hopefully the time off didn't make me too lazy.
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1. I am only taking shorts. For some reason, I see short only. Probably some negativity coming out from fundamentals and affecting my mindset. Until I can get rid of that I will have issues. There was a clear long at the open and I didn't take it.
2. The entries weren't super clear. I believe that means stay out, but for some reason I wanted some action. Will work harder on that.
3. Market is sideways, then why am I looking for a trending move?
4. I moved 3 stops after my entries and 2 of the 3 were the big winners!
5. Difficult reading market in this condition. May wait till next week to get involved as I do better with a faster moving market.
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The way I go on the short or long bias is to -- besides not watching or paying attention to the 'news' -- define a short term trend (if there is one, otherwise, don't trade or try some small dip buying) with a bigger time frame chart, say the 60 minute or something larger, and use some kind of moving average to define that trend via the MA slope direction, say the 20 or 50 period MA and then trade in the direction of the trend by buying pullbacks (that have stopped) during an uptrend slope and selling ramps up (that have stopped) during a downtrend slope.
No, no volume. Did I say that? What I meant was overall volume meaning velocity of the bars moving to a trend. Whenever volume/ticks are low, then I send up doing worse...
S&R was always big with Henry. He taught it well but I never really clung to it until recently more and more.
More of a reason to stay out of a trade etc..
It is funny, the one trade that you got, I didn't get (or stay in) and that would have given me BE. When markets are moving so little in the first hour, I have to be careful as it is difficult to recover....
Thanks though but I think today I was just having a 'counter-counter' day.
Good point. The 'trend' was saying stay out in my opinion. Mid/Long is up, so I could have easily taken longs...
For some reason I am very hesitant on long's at the moment. I guess I say in my mind, "We are overdue for a 50% retracement" which can never happen or won't happen for a while. I think I have a bit of pressure from 'work' so I am feeling 'negative'?
My goal is to counter-trend with the LONGER TREND. I really saw a nice picture what I thought was the 4181 tick and I just kept going with it and it cost me. Plus, moving my stops today cost me a couple points too. probably would have left the day close to break even, but instead I kept going.
Tomorrow will be a better day. (Thanks for the comments)
Maybe it's the big resistance area that we may or may not have broken out of, or the constant negative global news flow and lack of confidence in any of our political systems, who are too heavily involved in the economic outcome?
Know how you feel ... it is a very complex landscape
I'm trying to take a bigger picture approach with smaller positions, assuming the world won't end, buying dips that look buy-able with disaster stops pretty far away, managing my risk with the smaller position sizing and time, buying weakness only up to a conservative % of capital and at 'obvious' support places, not buying during the meltdown days, scale out selling into strength, keeping the 'inventory' not too big. Not being overly confident in technical indicators and/or fine trading in a very 'imprecise' market. Good luck!
"The Future Ain't what it used to be"
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