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TF day trading

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  #101 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Tiger45 View Post
I don't know what your rules are, but it looks like when you hit a winner, price moved in your favor quickly and you took almost no heat. On your losers, you didn't have much MFE anyway, so you could have had much tighter stops. Have you tried tighter stops?

My stops are always 5 ticks, UNLESS I feel I hit a pivot. Then it is pivot -1/+1 etc..

I don't even know what MFE is anymore. I learned it but quickly forgot it like so many other things.

I will study up on that. Yes, yesterday I hit the long for I think 15 points or something, but I scaled out in 4 bars because price was still floating around my entry. My wife is always mentioning to be to be patient! I have been a very impatient person in most of my life, so this is against my grain I guess you could say.

Yesterday was especially tough on exiting way too early. If I just hold them per my rules, then I will be pulling in 3-5 points per contract per day, but I just am not doing it. It is like a gravitational pull!

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  #102 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Seems like I am leaving a bit on the table, which I did on a few trades, but overall pretty happy with my improvement. I anticipate being 3-5 points by February and have a lot of the kinks worked out.

My RE development projects are finally becoming unstuck, so that will be some nice cashflow until I get to be 2K per day profitable.

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  #103 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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MFE is Maximum Favorable Excursion, look here:
Maximum Favorable Excursion - Big Mike's Trading Forum

There is also MAE:
Maximum Adverse Excursion - Big Mike's Trading Forum

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  #104 (permalink)
 rassi 
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Or as I always like to think of them, move from entry, move against entry

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  #105 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Today was a day that I would have been very very upset in the past.

Today however, I am choosing to see it for what it is. A day which I was too aggressive (which I knew it when I was doing it) and something that I have realized or seen before and now understand this type of day.

Market ran up hard, then ranged the rest of the morning pretty much. That is what my MACD's were telling me, however I was choosing to maybe get the best of a surprise downward move which I am fine with. I left 200.00 on the table several times, but I was ok as if it would have dropped, then I would have made double that easily on the continued retracement.

I made 5 gifts before I hit the pivot. However, only 2 of those were real entries that I could have chosen to take. The ES was saying up as well but I didn't listen. I just ignored a lot of data and did my usual, in at the market open, in in in.

My goal the next few days will be to let the first run go and get in from there. I also realize that days like this don't happen all the time and they are news driven. Had I been more cautious on my entries I would be up slightly, but I am OK with my trading for today.

Trades:

1. -3 ticks, just prior to market open decided to see if it would retrace from here. Minimum risked, 3 ticks. This is a dumb habit.

2. -4 ticks, This jumped on me. I hit sell bout 5 ticks higher and it jumped and filled me. It was moving quite fast. I was out within a second.

3. -5 ticks, Close to my area, missed it by a tick, so I went ahead and went in. Slight bar setup and near area.

4. -5 ticks, Decent bar setup. Just touched my 2nd area (extension) and decided this could be it.

5. -3 ticks, This I thought was the entry and I had a 2 tick stop in but it fudged it by 1.

6. +10 ticks, This was a decent entry, but I thought it was going to pop a head before it went down. I scaled the first 2 reasonably well, but held the last one for 27 minutes thinking that if it did break I would be in the points. However, at +20 ticks, I could have chosen to exit and look for a new entry as it was pretty obvious that it was going up.

Tomorrow is a new day!

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  #106 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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I would have stopped after the first exit and been done. However, I stuck with it and gave it all back and then some. I really didn't see long on my Fib's, but the MACD's were telling me that LONG is very possible. Wow...

I think today was good, as typically the market retraces and gives me a nice trade. However, today it was just up up up.

My wife was up +6 ticks per contract.

Today's major lesson is to remain open and to be able to change my stance on where the market is headed. I saw it was going up, but I didn't trust myself and said, "This is probably where it shoots down if I exit" etc..

I also wasn't able to finish my trading due to my kids. I left my last trade open and would normally have exited at least 1 at +15 ticks, but I just let it go and walked away. It then end up hitting my area and I would have taken a short/gift and then a short for profit.

Even though I lost money and my trades were not positive, my trading was better because I was willing to stick through the ups/downs much better, so when the long runs do come!

Oh, one more observation. If the 4181 is saying down, the 1597 is unclear, but the 987 says up, then I should exit and wait for a clear short/long. If I am not in a trade, then most likely it is telling me to go w/ the 987 if the signal is clear enough.

Trades:

1. +9 ticks, good trade at area! scaled nicely.

2. -6 ticks, chased entry, this could have been short, but it was ranging up.

3. -2 ticks, chased again. The 2-4 trades could have been not entered had I decided to only enter at areas.

4. -5 ticks, I assumed this was heading down to a 50% retracement after a 23% retracement on 1597 chart. I was wrong and it cost me today.

5. -3 ticks, Good pivot, hit area and scaled perfectly. The mistake on this was not reversing! haha... Also only scaled one out and not 2. Mistake.

6. +3 ticks, This looked like a turning point, but nothing more than a retrace to more up.

7. -3 ticks, Good entry, two entries, first one breakeven, then entered again. I feel ok w/ this entry.

8. -4 ticks, Not a bar setup, nor area, just desperate to not miss out.

9. -3 ticks, This looked decent, but it had one more pop.

10. -5 ticks, This looked great. Now, I would have normally scaled out at 746.9 as that was the 100% extension but I was doing my best to not scale out too soon. Well, it didn't work on this one. Also, when it came back down to 746.8 I would have scaled, but I had to leave my computer.

I am OK with giving back 22 ticks! I am good with my trading today. I realized that I wasn't trading properly and that a re-analysis from scratch would be required after a few minutes trading.

Tomorrow is another day!


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  #107 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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What size is your biggest chart that is up in front of you all the time when trading (not just looked at and put away)? How many hours or days of data does it display?

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  #108 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
What size is your biggest chart that is up in front of you all the time when trading (not just looked at and put away)? How many hours or days of data does it display?

Mike

Sorry, been away for a couple days.

144 is the largest BAR chart.

4181 tick is the largest indicator chart.

Daily, weekly, 50K, 4181 and 1597 are all bar charts that I also look at but like you said, put them away. Once in a trade, I typically move from 144 to 1597. Do that more on market replay lately as the last few days I haven't had a whole long time to look at quality trades! haha...

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  #109 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Ok, only an observation but then it would seem the largest chart in front of you only has a couple of hours of data on it at any given time, which is not enough data to really show you a trend or trend lines.

I usually find that when traders go smaller and smaller on time frames, they are doing it because they want to "minimize their pain" or take a smaller stop, etc. What they end up doing is trading noise and just getting stopped repeatedly instead of setting a proper stop and trading above the noise.

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  #110 (permalink)
 bluemele 
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Big Mike View Post
Ok, only an observation but then it would seem the largest chart in front of you only has a couple of hours of data on it at any given time, which is not enough data to really show you a trend or trend lines.

I usually find that when traders go smaller and smaller on time frames, they are doing it because they want to "minimize their pain" or take a smaller stop, etc. What they end up doing is trading noise and just getting stopped repeatedly instead of setting a proper stop and trading above the noise.

Mike

Well, I would agree that is what most traders do.

I am doing this as my 'coach' recommends this. The strategy is to use small stops and hit long runs. Get better at identifying pivots (which is hard at first) but the r/r is so good that you make money.

I have lost more money with large stops.

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