jepp... the bullmoves... when there is such strong trending you cant relay on the macds anymore... it almost got me tricked in aswell... i actually believed that we will break the premarket high and get even higher...
well you actually could see that 610 macd was really tight trending... i even shouldnt have taken my first short but i wasnt looking...
get some sleep and relax a bit.... take a day off tomorrow... you wont miss much on fridays...
The following user says Thank You to ollivermilton for this post:
Watched your video, very nice by way, but have a couple of questions and observation. For the record; I am not trying to be a downer on a positive day, just trying to understand your logic!
Question: I know it was a news day but you pegged 4 trade opportunities in a row which could have been profitable, before and after the news. How come you didnt take the trades?
Why do you close out your target? This seems like it hurting you more than helping. Might I suggest just moving your stop only and leaving the target where it is. This way you can see how many points you missed the target by and make a adjustment to your overall strategy. eg If your target is 5 and you are consistently missing your target by 1.5 to 2 points then you need to move your target to 3. Blamo!! you are now making 6 points instead of 2. Its a lot harder to turn a winning trade into a break even / losing trade when you dont move the target around or close it out.
Observation of the above question.
It also appears to me that most of your trades move 1 point. (eg 722.20 to 721.2) so why not put a hard target of 1 and be done with it. 6 trades; 6 points.
nosce te ipsum
Trade what the market is doing; NOT what you think its going to do.
The following user says Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
Well, because the goal is to trade longer term 'hits'. It is that 'finding yourself' question of how much and how long do you like to be trading. I have to be honest, there is a sweetspot with me. I either like to be in for about 2 minutes max, OR 2 days..
Out of all my trading experiences, it hasn't been intraday like this except this system, so... The goal is to focus and only take 3+ point moves. The challenge with 1 point is when live, getting filled can be a nightmare. Even on live sim it is a challenge and I don't plan on trading 1 contract. I used to be live with 10 contracts and had some issues getting filled with all 10 and all my losers would get filled and 75% of my winners!
My wife tried the whole 5 tick, 5 tick for a while and it was a loser for her. I think for me I just need to focus on the longer term charts and only trade off of those... I can tell from my trading that I need more sleep and concentration. That has been hurting me this week.
As per not taking my trades, good question...... I guess because I was trying to stick with my overall 'theme' of direction...? My wife asked me the same question.
Per moving TP, good question as well, because my system is highly discretionary in that as the market moves, I can move my TP etc..
I appreciate the questions and to some people looking outward in it sure seems simple I know. But to be here, clicking it sure has been a long road of mental anguish...
The following 4 users say Thank You to bluemele for this post:
I have a question, is your wife consistently profitable in the 3+ points range every day?
My other question is this or perhaps its just a random thought that I have. I have a hard time believing there isn't some sort of method either something you already use or perhaps some other method that would produce some sort of consistent 1.5 points per trade. Two solid trades and you're done if you are looking for 3 point days.
And I guess my last question is why you don't use market orders at the levels you want to be filled at or stop market orders to enter if you want some margin of confirmation. As you said, limit orders can be problematic as it seems 100% of the losers are filled and at best 75% of winners are filled at full position size....ZTR or Andy as he was known wanted to trade larger size as well. His approach was to set his ATM to 10 or 20 lots and then hit buy market 5 or 6 times in a row as fast as he could. I tried it a few times on sim of course and it worked like a charm but since I was and still am trading less than 5 lots, it didnt make much sense for me. If you want to trade in the hundred lot range at some point like I think you may, then an approach that depends on a relatively thin market like TF trying to fill 100 lots at a specific level might in the long term be something that leaves you disappointed. This is why the big players trade ES. They can get filled on size.
Ok, I am sticking my nose in on a trading method I know almost nothing about. I just hate to see you treading water looking for the big wins when you seem to be so good at nabbing the smaller ones.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:
Yes, and it seems like this conversation has been played.
I think at this point, either:
a) I need to accept 1.5 point runs and bang em out.
b) I need to trader longer runs and adapt my brainwaves.
I would prefer to do B) as it allows me to play more size... for later...
Yes, it dawned on me about the entries as well. 10 contracts is great, but like you said on TF, a bit challenging in certain conditions to get filled even in SIM! I remember several times when I was live with 3, 6 or even 12 contracts and I would get 25%, then maybe 50% and then it would go without me. Then, on my next trade it would hit my stop and I would get emotionally wrecked because the 25% fill ended up 4 points trend and then I get stopped out... arrrrghhhhh....
I moved it down to 1 contract and go from there and that was my goal of doing some long term swing trades on TF with 5 point stop as well and just doing market. It is funny but I haven't seen a single setup in over 3 weeks! haha...
Maybe I could use that patience in my intraday! haha...
I also think a couple of things as you have cleared some cobwebs...
I think that even though I am breaking even, it is considerably better than going down like I was. So at least that is a 'positive'. Secondarily, because I am stretching out my runs (for more than 1.5 hopefully!), I have been better at sticking to one direction and then maybe changing that a little later. I am going through that transitional stage of being able to read a ranging market day and a trending day and that will help.
I treat SIM like LIVE as I have sunk an account or two in my day (and not 5K.., but not with this system..) and you can see my hesitation for such. The dollars traded in SIM are very small numbers but it is a matter of did I follow my rules or
not and am I waiting for the highest probability setups? NOPE. I struggle with extreme impatience and the constant need to be right. I am getting better, but a lot to overcome for an ex-EGO maniac!
Per my wife, no.... She is doing worse than she has ever done but she also took several months off because our 2nd kid was just too demanding. I love my kids, but boy.... They sure take up some time!!!
BTW, I like your method and have been playing with it for a very long time, but not seriously. I have been evaluating the longer term like you mentioned (Daily's on FX) and it looks interesting.
I have to admit, I wish I was doing better, but I am ok with where I am at and am 'pacing' myself emotionally for the long-haul. I feel energetically a bit weak at the moment and that is unfortunate because all-n-all I am not doing that bad. Break even + a few ticks sure beats losing $, but obviously not the goal of any trader.... (I have been BE for 2.5 months!)
Thanks for your comments, it is appreciated as I learn from many people and their perspectives.
The following 3 users say Thank You to bluemele for this post: