Ok, so today was almost identical in behavior to yesterday. I am starting to really notice how the market will move the same over and over again. It was somewhat relaxed till 10AM EST and then the market sped up, just like it did yesterday a bit.
Plus, there was an up, drop, then up up up, then drop drop drop drop.... Identical in behavior but different in points.
I was a bit 'stressed' and picked up on that this morning. My goal was not to make several gifts before I get a nice entry. That is why I closed out my first trade for a small profit. I knew it was going to retrace and I also figured that we would be doing a retrace up, but down seemed like the better direction to trade. I am still amused how the market moved up again, but seems to be dropping now pretty nicely.
I would also like to say that I appreciate others looking at this journal and reading it and hopefully finding tidbits of information. However, this is MY JOURNAL and it is FOR ME, and a good place to store my thoughts and feelings as to what I have done and my issues that others might be able to chime in on and see.
I have gotten a few requests via PM to share my mentor/system etc... I have no issues with that, but I do not want to present that my being on this forum has anything to do with marketing HIS system! I am marketing MY SYSTEM TO ME!!! haha...
2. +4 ticks, I scaled two contracts, then left the 3rd to -5 ticks as I saw a retrace coming.
3. +0 ticks, I didn't take this trade! Why, I don't know, I guess I was seeing more downside.
4. -5 ticks, well, long term looked short to me, and it was 50% area from retracement of prior area.
5. +0 ticks, I lost confidence in this one so I closed it out at BE.
6. -5 ticks, Ok, so it looked good to me again, but it was a mistake and I quickly realized it but it popped very quickly right before I exited at BE!
7. -3 ticks, My stop was just too small to handle the one last pop in here. I was thinking down, but it moved quickly and strong up to here, so I was losing confidence in the short.
8. +25 ticks, This was perfect. I probably entered a little early, but left a 2 tick stop in for a nice drop. I did scale my first two a bit early, but it was at the 50/61% area and it was picking up some support. I expected this thing to drop drop drop, but the 1597 started looking VERY strong, so I bailed on my last one and I think it was good. The news came out quickly thereafter.
The last trade on my trading results sheet was not a real trade and I was playing around with the interface for a BE.
The only things I would change today is that the long was pretty clear, but I hesitated a bit too long, but that is OK considering yesterday.
Other than that, I feel that my trading was sufficient.
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Today was a day that I would never do live. So, why did I do it SIM? Well, I didn't, I did it on replay. haha..
My wife did it live, but I had to babysit, so...
I realized after looking at my chart that I would probably be profitable. Here is why:
1. The last trade I took, I got in really really late. That is because I had it on 3X speed because the market was moving a bit slow due to the Holiday. I tried getting in closer on the pivot, but 3x moved me too fast and I got a very late entry. I then went BE+1 and it just knocked me out. My target was 731.5 which it hit nicely, but I probably would have scaled one about halfway.
2. Had I traded like usual I would have stayed in the short (#3) instead of exiting so early. However, the volume was so light, I was getting a bit antsy and considering the Holidays I was ready to depart and take less risk.
1. -4 ticks, Long term seemed like it needed a retrace.
2. -4 ticks, I thought this was the pivot! I was close.
3. +6 ticks, I was a bit bummed(ANXIETY) it just knocked me out and I was a bit cautious (FEAR) on getting in here, so that is why I was delayed by 5 ticks on my entry. It did seem short, but due to Holiday I thought the low volume could mess with me a bit.
4. -2 ticks, Looked like a pivot.
5. -3 ticks, This really seemed like an area so I figured I would see if I can hit the pivot.
6. -1 tick, This trade looked long, but I realized the longer terms were saying more down so I exited early.
UP ARROW, Looked like a good long was coming but not sure so just placed arrow.
UP ARROW, looked good, but still more down long term maybe.
7. +1 tick, I thought this was it, to my target but BE+1 knocked me out.
8. -4 ticks, this was a mistake. I actually didn't mean to click until the bar closed, but I sped up the replay to 3x so I would have probably been knocked out anyways, but with a smaller stop.
9. +1 tick, This would probably and most likely be +25 - +40 ticks average per contract. Due to 3x, I was a bit slow on clicking but in my mind I was in. It moved pretty fast at this pivot and this was my area 76% retracement to enter.
2 big mistakes today to turn it into a negative day.
1) scaled out WAY too soon and not enough confidence in my ability to see the patterns.
2) Never trade Major Pre-Holiday.
No trading on THUR or FRI. This by the way was a nice retrace to the 50% on the longer term charts!
The good is that I am really starting to understand again how important the long term charts are! I will only take trades when the long term charts say to. It sure saves a lot of headaches.
Something I am really digesting is setting up the long term patterns again in my head to formulate an entry on the short term timeframes. I haven't done this in months!
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Ok, good trading today, although I wasn't paying attention to the longer term.
I had a decent enough short coming out of the open, and that was it for me today.
The market seemed 'weak', so I ignored the 987, 1597 and 4181. However, when it did pop back up and broke the high for the morning open I realized this could be a nice long and I would just watch it because overall I still feel the market is going to retrace some.
It did end up hitting the 76 retracement by the tick! But, the market was moving too slow to validate an entry for me. Volume is surprisingly higher than I expected.
I also traded the ES on the same entry, but I wish NT would put like a TAB on the control center so I can switch more quickly as I just put it at BE+1 as it takes me too long to keep switching back-n-forth.
I want to send a thank you to all the people who helped me transfer over to NT7 and it has been immensely beautiful! I am really enjoying it over TS and find myself more excited daily again.
I have been doing market replay consistently over the last 2 weeks since I moved to NT7.
It has helped me really learn more quickly and so happy I made the switch. There are still nuances that I don't like quite as well, as TS kind of glides very well and NT7 seems more like riding something mechanical.
My clarity is gaining and even though I am break even at the present, I do feel a turn coming back to profitability. My mentor is doing classes daily almost now and it is helping me mostly to understand what it takes to be profitable.
Also, another good trader from the group has been using NT7 with a REAL DOM on the vid's which has been very very inspiring to see someone pulling 1.5K to 6K daily out of the market! That makes me the happiest and I guess it is a form of weakness to have to see someone else doing it before I can believe it.
With Real Estate, I saw many people doing it ($$$) and it isn't something you can cover up easily. In this business there are WAY too many liars, thieves or whatever people want to call them.
Now the key is a couple months of consistent profits.
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Today was a day of caution for me. I am not doing proper analysis with targets in either direction. That is the first thing I noticed on my trading as well as my lack of confidence.
The lack of confidence cost me good entries and also then the reason I left my trades too quickly.
1. -3 ticks, long term was saying up, so I jumped in. This was the 76% retracement area as well.
2. +8 ticks, Market jumped right when I pushed the button. Cost me about 3-4 ticks on entry. I then didn't feel comfortable being so far from the pivot so I exited very quickly. I would have been knocked out ON THE TICK, so I am glad I scaled out.
3. +2 ticks, LUCKY on this one. I scaled out at BE, but the market jumped right when I did it!
4. +4 ticks, LUCKY X 2 on this one! Same as last trade, but market jumped right when I clicked! Really lucky.
All-n-all, I have chosen to not let go and just let it be. Until I can do that, I will not get the better runs.
--EDIT: Tried to put in a video, but my video is too long and it was removed. haha... I guess I need max 10:00 or something. Trade faster!!!!
Last edited by bluemele; November 29th, 2010 at 05:54 PM.
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Today was a day of bad habits creeping back in. I could feel the emotions as I traded which is really good. I could feel the anxiety, the 'anger' or the wanting to 'force' the market.
It was a bumpy day early on and I was expecting to have a similar day as yesterday so I was a bit more aggressive on the entries. I took a ton of trades and had I managed properly, I would have been up only a point or so. There is a nice trade happening now although I am worn out since I started pre-market today.
I felt the market was going to go down and that I would only take shorts, however, the shorts weren't too clear TO ME, so I decided to just hit the longs.
I have discovered some new methods to help me discover to 'wait' a bit for the right entry, or should I say rediscovered? Anyways, I didn't abide by the new technique and just kept going in, hence the # of trades and gifts.
1. +6 ticks, This was a perfect setup, 76% on larger term, support on several MACD's! Woohoo... But, it was weak and quickly showed, so I exited soon.
2. -3 ticks, Thought I hit retracement pivot. Not too bad, just late.
3. -5 ticks, deep retrace, was at support on longer terms.
4. +5 ticks, Deep retracement off previous bottom, nice separation on longer time frames and near keltner with good bar setup. Scaled first one too quickly. 2nd scale out was good, I was heavily considering exit on last one at top. I was thinking short but for some reason didn't want to keep flipping.
5. -2 ticks, Same as #6.
6. -2 ticks, Area on retracement, bars closing up, etc. but not saying YES on the middle term MACD's.
7. -4 ticks, This was retracement area, but obviously not the right area. I thought it was a head off the previous shoulder.
8. NO FILL, gave up after it came back down. I wasn't as confident.
9. NO FILL, Glad I didn't get filled! This looked good to me.
UNLABELED TRADED, -3 ticks, I saw longs, which it was, but had one more move.
10. BE, this was a little bit of luck as it hit my stop, but market filled me 3 ticks higher. It moved lightning quick and I should have not been in here because of news. This could have cost me a few $$. This news comes 3 minutes prior then the public news and this one has cost me in the past!
11. -5 ticks, Chased it and just knocked out by 1 tick! This wasn't the right area anyways.
12. BE, I had it set at BE + 1, but slippage. I thought this would be down for sure, but News seems to be driving market up here.
13. NO FILL, Did my best get filled and waited for proper looking retracement.
14. +11 ticks, got in finally and was ready for a nice short. I scaled too early, but I wanted to be ready for the long.
15. -4 ticks, A little bit ahead of the gun. The shorter timeframes were saying NOT YET!
16. +1 ticks, Poor trading. Should have just kept my boundary.
17. NO FILL, Perfectly clear this was going up, but I kept moving up and it just didn't fill over and over.
18. +10 ticks, Ok, I was worn out mentally by this point. I saw long and was looking for a target up at 726.9 but I wanted to be done for the day. I believe it hit that price and it was the pivot down. This was the 50% on the 1597 retracement. I scaled too early on this and could have easily taken another +10 ticks per contract.
I am not trading as a professional, but I am taking it very seriously. Probably too seriously. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
Last edited by bluemele; November 30th, 2010 at 12:06 PM.
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I don't know what your rules are, but it looks like when you hit a winner, price moved in your favor quickly and you took almost no heat. On your losers, you didn't have much MFE anyway, so you could have had much tighter stops. Have you tried tighter stops?