2024 Dragon

March 1st, 2024, 11:46 AM

metals on the up but not crypto and commodity fx popping

indexes nice with it and energy somehow too

bonds participating but reluctantly

March 4th, 2024, 10:53 AM

the previous admin pressured the fed and personally jpow to deliver

this may have resulted in further ballooning debt and inflation

the aftermath which we deal with currently so the election outcome has these implications

//

vix still dropping with bullion strengthening, energy consolidating and crypto excess continues

indexes in continuation, testing previous and possibly stalled, start of the month with nfp

ideally another test of support before proceeding as usual but these breakouts may frontrun things

//

fxi and related baba types fell and used as proxy for further indexes ewj and domestic

suggesting that with news and other yield sensitive info the frontrun is not as urgent

best to stick with individual performers and then maybe additions like smci to start

March 5th, 2024, 03:43 PM

Vix had to reload anyway, indexes are in dip mode essentially

Energy flip flopped which is interesting in prep for later data

Bonds encouraging bids and metals persist but not crypto

//

Aapl is an example of something in sell mode, dead for a while

With fxi moving counter suggesting intrinsic unrelated problems

The compound effect of foreign support may stabilize yields as well

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Not as keen on energy as the pop may be a sell op

And further supports avoiding inflationary factors

Crypto though possibly gold may persist however

//

forex does not seem ready to give up on the current regime

and commodities follow energy so the dollar may hover as is

one thing is some euro side carries are edging further into strength

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mag7 has been split into pros and cons though the majority still ok

aapl and tsla are already in sell mode. googl is close and msft is hovering

nflx, meta, nvda still maintain strength so really up to msft to hold majority

March 7th, 2024, 10:35 AM

Believe it or not this area is sort of do or die

Efforts to ramp above a threshold are necessary

Indexes seem to be defending fortunately

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interesting that the EU has predicted <2.0% inflation

yields have risen in sympathy, post powell testimony and lagarde

carries knee-jerked lower but are now recovering

March 8th, 2024, 11:20 AM

dia is not as glam but that is precisely the catch up play

large cap not tech un-influenced by the front run in other indexes

and also some alternative plays in non-us markets since euro side is strong

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unsure how to process the ongoing party corporate tax increase / cut

depends on trickle down outlook but some policy's to reduce housing costs are interesting

the other problem is trusting the delivery from the promises, some may have had it honestly

March 11th, 2024, 10:06 AM

although dark indexes were under they are also at a relative low

vix rising very gradually but generating a sort of dip needed for further pushes

yen strength also with similar behavior and carries readjusting

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not so keen on energy since commodities are a portion of the inflation basket

however china seems to be handling the recovery well enough to bring a tipping point

large cap ex-energy ex-tech (semis) less volatile w/ large cap tech still dipping (waiting for aapl)

March 12th, 2024, 03:51 PM

going to actually replay the swing setup from this week and how it affected things post CPI::

1) we confirm that the longer term trend is intact and no support levels are breached

2) for example on SPX (removing afterhours from futures) we see that mid term trend is not breached, though daily has dropped to support in anticipation

3) post CPI, we see that the levels have pulled in interest and springboarding off this, confirms a valid long entry for continuation at the open, driving the trend

4) considering the entry into the swing setup on the daily, we notice that the nearer mid-term levels are also closing in on further continuation and continue to swing hold

5) we remain vigilant and set stops at levels that would breach support / a move to handle risk as we attempt the reward phase ( if multiple contracts, we take off one and set one at breakeven )

//

profit from good entry and minimizing risk. we continue to analyze the ongoing market via orthogonal instruments

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vix has been driving through the range without dropping so hard to require a bounce

gold reacted off CPI though still in trend as inflation measures are still higher than desired

bonds at any duration turned away from continuation, though support was not breached for further selling

dollar w/ signs of weakness (CPI foreshadowing), though early and must be confirmed by corresponding forex basket

energy complex is still strong, as rbob is a large factor contributing to inflation, production calculations, etc.

//

dia has also followed through, ndx as well, though large cap tech waiting on aapl to return (honestly very close)

small caps are reluctant to follow through as a proxy of interest rate sensitivity and has not confirmed the daily trend

however, global indexes like ewj, fxi are on the mend and were climbing even before CPI.. carries from asia / europe all intact

//

more technical breadth indication adv - dec are rising and darkpools hit lows while delta inched higher

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though nervous about gas prices, tsla is not is a good way at the moment and so forth with the latecomers

even as a tech/ai front, nvda tsm are better direct choices and even intc though lagging is getting help

with evs, one things of cars but would rather that designation be for cycles like the stark varg (power:weight) or https://damon.com/technology

//

even hybrids like toyota or porsche (vw group) that owns 45% rimac (owns majority of bugatti) are a good middleground

prefer domestic dev and hope ford/gm can take control back, develop a winning f1 engine for redbull in a few years

March 13th, 2024, 10:04 AM

so if aapl misses the boat in the next couple weeks, that might be a sign of weakness

tsla is already in the weak group and that would be 2 of the mag7 in the dumps

seeing a big oof in energy prior to the eia which may be carrying the dia

//

otherwise non-tech large cap like big banks are still floating on

the over exuberance of both spx and ndx is reeling in a tad

and bonds continue to weaken with no added cuts in sight

//

both gold and crypto regaining ground but still hovering

fxi continues but ewj has also pulled back trying to ground support

carries are still extending both asian and european while dollar slips slightly

//

post eia energy blipped but seems contained, natty still being natty, supplies hopefully increase further

also noted that dark pools reversed higher after touching lows, which is unique since we are at index highs

googl, nvda maybe have to carry the mag7 since msft meta are mid and tsla and aapl are out for now.. inertia

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there is a finality and pending pause as things could cross lower at some point, especially with amzn barely holding

aapl and tsla just decided to drop and go under earlier which might allow them to find support earlier as well

nvda is a later cycle so even with the mag7 in different parts of the cycle and small caps latest of all

March 14th, 2024, 10:39 AM

volatile day, look first at energy and seeing outside movement, looking if this would reverse

indexes recovering, amzn is one example aapl seems to have successfully defended as well

would call nvda a late stage semi and tsla has already initiated drop (congrats to starship btw)

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bonds coiling and the overall feel is that these movements are overreactions and head fakes

however they may extend and patience / proper entry is required even so

being early is worse than slightly late waiting for confirmation

March 15th, 2024, 10:52 AM

looks like a revisit to the previous support levels prior to breakout

means additional re-test and if confirmed, further accumulation

may wait until next week and aapl is still dragging mag7

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nvda seems to be ahead even amzn is taking pause

thankfully energy pared some gains but also finding support

bonds have dropped to levels prior to inflation data as well

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amzn is also around 2-3% near a trigger and vix has subsided

will be interesting to see what happens next week

until then we wait for further confirmation to take action

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energy may be limited on the upside at least gasoline hopefully

however copper has been surging and as a proxy for production

would indicate that crude would have further upside and china as well

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so in brief, heavy baited breath into fomc some reluctance and preemptive selling

in the pessimistic case we hurtle through another sell wave, would trigger further levels

so we are at the brink of something that is setup to dip well or open the floodgates

//

i will say one thing here. that extended hour instruments like futures hold optimism

though it is not well indicated in regular hours, there are some suggestions after hours

the unknown is really bonds that have not confirmed this possible upside

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and silver the more industrious precious metal is also geared though less so vs gold

add to this that carries would be primed on both sides of the ocean

so the possibility is that the can is again kicked to maintain (toward the elections, etc.)

2024 Dragon

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2024 Dragon