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Nothing works all of the time, edges move, ebb and flow. I know how you feel, been there done that a few times.. Life offers just as many open doors as it does closed doors. There is something that you are meant and equipped to do well. Believe it.. Best Wishes Fade
This isn't trading; it's gambling. You failed at gambling. You haven't earned the right to trade ES let alone size allowing nearly $10,000 in losses or profits. This is a business, not an evening in Vegas.
Gambling is not for you, but the good news is you can still be a trader.
$5.00 maximum risk; SIM until you can execute flawlessly.
Most people don't know what an "edge" is or how much work it takes to develop one. Finding the ideal R/R will take hours. Finding the ideal SL and TP size (and knowing how to adjust it for volatility) will take hours. Backtesting a system across multiple market paradigms (random days from the past 6+ months) will take hours. Building a deep fundamental understanding of the market so that you can develop your own system from the ground up will take hours. You must know why you're using what you're using. Why the 5 minute and not 15? Why a time based chart and not tick? Why this indicator on this timeframe with these settings?
OP, I don't know if you're done for good. If you are, good luck to you. If you aren't, please don't trade your own money. Use a prop firm or better yet SIM it out. If you can't show a 50-100 trade run with good stats in back testing with a random day's data, or more ideally in forward testing, the inevitable result will be a blowup.
Personally, I'm not "profitable" yet. I'm forward testing a system I spent months building from the ground up that shows a lot of promise, more than anything I've come up with in my short trading career. It took a lot of fucking work to build, and I can explain exactly why I chose every detail that I did. If you can't do the same, don't bother going live. Never underestimate how fast you can lose money in futures, it's mindboggling.
Good luck OP, don't beat yourself up too much. Maybe in 1, 5, or 10 years you'll be in a place to try again.
Probably making the right decision. I've had a pretty similar experience to OP, constant bleeding with the occasional win. I really am starting to believe trading is impossible for a pure retail. Anyone who vehemently disagrees can you find me someone with a consistently positive equity curve that wasn't a former professional?
I swear price movement is manipulated to stop us out before going in our original direction...the algos are programmed to prey on typically touted "correct" trading behavior. Follow through is trash. And backtesting is worthless as price movement within the bar (before closing) will often stop you out. What looks like excellent setups in hindsight will leave without you as price reversed with strong momentum against you before taking off in the other direction.
I've been at it for 4 years and currently down roughly ~$130k...if that makes you feel any better OP lol.
Have been thinking it is time to get back into trading the futures market again but kinda afraid to after my terrible results clear back in the 2000's. My wife and I set out on a long trip to Alaska in 2004. When we returned after my broker had followed my instructions to the best, I had made 1,000,000 in three weeks. So what was the problem?
We came back from Alaska and found my wife had breast cancer. What a mind wrecker that was! All my knowledge, studying, intuition, and following my gut instincts just blew up. So for 5 years I couldn't do any thing right and lost 900,000 in the next year.
So after her being gone I decided I could get back on track and do it again. I was doing well until I decided to marry again. the second was good and i did well until I found she had Alzheimer's and it blew my mind again.
So far I've been a millionaire three times and a pauper twice. I just gotta get these emotions under control. Trading can work and it has well for me. I've lived a pretty good life anyway.
@Fade Indeed, a painful story. Sadly, a more common one than you'd think - so thumbs up for the rare candor to actually share it.
For your sake and others reading, it's important to understand the real reason for your blow-up.
It is NOT "no edge+poor psychology."
After working with many traders, I can safely say that not having an edge does result in losses, but it is NEVER the primary reason for blowing up.
Blowing up is an overtrading issue, not a "statistical loss" issue.
Blow up is - first and foremost - an issue of trading psychology.
It is compounded by money management (which is also psychology-driven).
Edge has nothing to do with it. If you have no edge, you'll obviously lose. But you'll have no problem stopping in time and figuring it out.
If you stick to good money management you can trade for years without making any money, but without ever blowing up.
Without it - you've set yourself up for a sure bolowout, and it's just a question of "when", not "if".
Money management is a very psychologically driven issue. Both the specific rules you set (or worse, don't set) for yourself, and your ability to stick to them, are driven by various psychological considerations, in addition to the classical "math-based" rules you've probably learned.
I wouldn't dare assume the specific reasons for in your case. It would take a little more that your email for that.
But figuring them out is critical for you to get back on the right path - if and when you choose to do so.
You've obviously risked more than your account can handle to begin with (ask yourself: why?).
You've also obviously been unable to stop mid-day when the losses added up (again: why?).
These are the real reasons you blew up. And these are the issues you need to tackle in order to move forward. It's a hard and deep look, but worth it.
In my experience, the real causes often involve personal traits and automatic, subconscious thought patterns that show up not only a person's trading, but in other areas of life as well.
Once honestly figured out, they can usually be overcome rather effectively. It is not easy, but it is very possible and rewarding.
One last point:
It's very natuaral to want to throw in the towel after such an experience. For some people, it's the right choice. For others, it's more of an emotional response to a traumatic event.
I've seen over and over how people come back from situations like this - but they only move forward under the following conditions:
- They've let go of the trauma/self-judgement/pain of the last event and are prepared to start fresh with an open view.
- They identify the REAL reasons and work through them.
Once you've done this, you are no longer the same trader that blew up his account. You're a different trader, starting from a higher point and a better approach.
Very sorry to see your story, @Fade , but thank you for it, and for your openness, and wishing you very well for the future, if not for the futures.
Not sure that I disagree "vehemently," as I have not enough experience in this trading world really to be vehement about anything (and I had to look the word up anyway), but I do actually disagree.
I know two people, personally, who fit that description. One clearly and the other "just about". Both are (like me) former maths/statistics teachers. They are the only two traders I know in real life, so I could say that 100% of my experience is against your belief, but it is tiny experience and I cannot of course pretend that it really represents anything more general, so you are surely free to dismiss it without offending me anyway.
One of my friends spent much time learning and practising trading from what turned out, I think, to be good sources (not Youtube and PDF's and commercial websites) and has passed on to me the books from which he learned, so I have hopes for myself. Wrongly or rightly.
He has given up his job and earns a better living this way. He had 2 losing months out of the last 12, but the average winning month was far bigger than either of the losing months.
My other friend is trying to follow his footsteps, now with some steady success.
But I think it is possible, anyway, for retail traders without pro experience to learn from scratch and become steadily profitable. I know your view is a widely held one and I hope I do not offend you by saying that I hope you are wrong.
On a collective basis, maybe, if big players know where stop losses are likely to be gathered together? People always argue about this, and will continue to, maybe?
On an individual basis, maybe, if you trade CFDs/forex, but not with futures?
Not my experience. (Again, my experience is both limited and probably not represents averages, or many people, or whatever). I understand that a method that appears to "work" on backtesting may not really work in the live market, and I understand some of the reasons for this. But still I would definitely prefer to use my time investigating further the potential of a method that does appear to "work" robustly on backtesting than on one that does not, and I think this is a valid perspective?
I have nothing, really, to contribute to Fade's Journal, not even extra cheese, not even anchovy or pineapple, so I hope nobody will mind my post too much.
Excellent points. You have to have a method that works ("edge") -- many methods don't and some do -- but a trader's personal psychological factors are what are going to let them apply it well, or find any issues their method has and fix them.
Zero edge just means you'll coast along at near-breakeven, eventually going broke from paying transaction costs and broker fees. Blowing an account (which I have done, more than once) is a matter of personal misjudgment, or loss of perspective, or loss of emotional control, or lack of loss control, or any of these sorts of trader-related issues, not method-related ones. (I have done all of these, too.)
Sometimes a person can decide that trading is not for them, and that is their choice. But this is the area where the causes of account blowups can be found.
Good luck, and I hope you are happy whichever way you decide to go.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Check out the Denise Shull at The Rethink Group https://therethinkgroup.net/
She is a former trader, and the daughter of a floor trader, who has a background in neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis. She specializes in helping to solve the mental issues that prevent successful investing. You can find videos of her talking about trading psychology online. As well she has written a few books. Moreover, she offers reasonably priced group and individual counseling sessions on getting your mind right to trade better. Her clients include major hedge funds and institutional investors. She and her team are very good at what they do. She is worth checking out!
i think the psychological issue is real...but only 33% of the equation (or 50% if you include execution into psychology which is probably correct)...but the other half is having a legit edge. at the end of the day if you don't have an edge you are going to lose. Finding and exploiting an edge is extremely difficult...end even then it is only so slight that you aren't even generating alpha. SP500 made roughly 25% last year lol...who ended 2023 having grown their trading account over 25%?
