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I think it was Alexander Elder saying that if your trading is exciting you are doing something wrong.
This was as boring as it could be. Enter-Hold-Exit.
News trampled all technicals, though divergence of CUMDELTA with price movement on an elevated VOL was of significant concern. ALGOTRADES_03Oct2023
A bit of background.
Main challenges in my style of algo- trading, which is momentum based, is to zero on the appropriate size of REnko bar and picking right side ( Long or Short). There is small matter of the strategy itself as I have too many of them.
As appealling taking both sides sounds in reality in relatively strong trend there is zero additional profits and in relatively weak trend profits from one side will be negated by losses on the other.
Thats why it is so important for me to go in minute detail of the analysis before zooming on the side. Yesterday was an easy one as news were clear cut and with breaking through bottom of mini-upward channel we found ourselves
in triple downward channels ( short-, mid-, long term).
Choice of the REnko bar can be guesstimated from Fibonaccis levels and experience. Huge moves are covered by 140 size, medium sized by 40.
For some reason 80 size worked from March till end of July then market structure changed and amplitude of the moves becomes non suitable for 80 anymore as it was badly lagging, while 40 was agile enough and 140 is stable enough to overcome any wiggling around.
20 sometime work in premarket, but majorly bring only losses unless we have yesterday situation with the determined push down.
For some reason since end of July my algo strategy based on Half-Trend started to outperform VWAP and DMindx that were smoking hot from May till end of July.
So there is a bit of experience and constant back testing by market replay needed to have certain confidence in those "minor" details that have enormous effect on the final result.
That being said I start to enjoy MANUAL control more and more. Have to give you a credit where credit is due.
Before in the manual mode I was entering market a bit random, but now with a bit of analysis behind my back there is at least reason to enter, hold and exit.
I agree with Albert on that one though I would put it in even more compelling way.
If you can not explain what you are doing to the child then indeed you may need to spend a bit more on your hobby/job/passion ....
I had a problem in the beginnng because i did not consider this jolt report as a market mover and ignored it. That was a mistake and caused some trouble. @kazbek966 mentioned it before the fact.
then i switched to short. Took wins relatively early because i did not want to sit in "revenge-runners"
At the same point i started a short on my " swing account" on which i give trades more room and can hold overnight for a day or 2
Later i took a second short after a pullback. Relatively agressiv location at vwap sd-1. But as we had a fresh condition shift i thought it is apropriate
Took both targets at thursdays low
First target of swing trade also was at thursday low, second target for narrative completion at the low of balance area
OCTOBER 4 2023 Early Pre-market
Aren't we for a bit of Wyckoff all over again ?
Tomorrow and Friday we have Double Whammy of NEWS released at 7:30 CST and there is something today at 7.15 so may be
waiting for opening would be wise. There was quite sizeable move and there is huge gap till 14.300 which looks so inviting for BEARS. 04102023_Wyckoff
Much larger volumes today on US and German indices after London Cash Open. Maybe 2/3 or 4 times normal volume in each 5 min bar. Still 2/3 times higher after 2 hours.
Everything has recovered above Asian Lows and Yesterdays RTH LOD's
