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Mysterion's Futures Trading Journey


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Mysterion's Futures Trading Journey

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  #1 (permalink)
Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received

Hi everyone!

From today onwards I will be posting my daily results and conclusions here. Sometimes with screenshots, sometimes just with simple text conclusions of the trades taken. I am a discretionary type of trader, as I have come to find out on this great forum.

Mostly I will be trading NQ, ES or CL Futures.

My goals are the following:

- Improve Winrate
- Become consistently profitable
- Improve Risk Management
- Optimize Strategy


I will be happy to read your thoughts and advice regarding my trading journey.

Thank you & see you around! :-)

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  #2 (permalink)
Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received

Inital Analysis:

Weekly view:
We have this New weeks opening Gap (NWOG) between 13370-13378. A Touch of 13525 is to be expected any time soon.

Daily & Short Term View:
Todays initial Analysis of the Market (conducted usually at around 9:00 AM +2UTC, which also happens to be EU market open):

We saw a nice bounce on NQ of last weeks daily high from tuesday, 9.May 2023 at 13347-13350 during overnight session, which also happened to be the current short TF Equilibrium.



So the first day would be succesfully complete, done a total of 4 trades today - after testing my newly setup SIM environment in Quantower. I usually take very short scalps on 1min TF (Hyperscalping).

Let's get to it:

Trade #1: Quick first inital VWAP Bounce. Win!
Trade #2: Second VWAP retest. Win!
Trade #3: Psych Level 400, Equilibrium (50% Fib), Middle of Range (MoR). Win!
Trade #4: Quick PoC rejection scalp. Win!

4/4 Wins today. My daily trade Limit is 4 trades max.
I have a fixed SL of 5 PT.

Please find attached the screenshots.

Feedback/Advice is more than welcome :-)

My Conclusion: Generally I need to hold my trades longer for more Profit. My TP usually is 1:1 (which im happy with) if there is no quicker price reaction in my favor.

BTW: no time for trading tomorrow!





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 richw 
Legendary Market Wizard in Training
Salt Lake City, UT
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: CL, ES, NQ, YM
 
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Congratulations for starting a journal and for the successful trades today! Can you help me understand how your trades are notated on the charts? Do you have any statistical data on the trades, such as entry price, exit price, etc.? This could help make it easier to understand your trades that you are listing in your journal.

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  #4 (permalink)
Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received


richw View Post
Congratulations for starting a journal and for the successful trades today! Can you help me understand how your trades are notated on the charts? Do you have any statistical data on the trades, such as entry price, exit price, etc.? This could help make it easier to understand your trades that you are listing in your journal.

I @richw , thank you and thanks for your reply. The trades on the current screenshots (from TV) are manually marked with the trade marking tool from TV. I put the trade exactly where I had the entry and exit. Unfortunately the exact entry and exit donít show as a numeric value though, and in quantower SIM the trades taken do not get saved until next session. But for the next Post I will find a way to add the numeric values (entry/exit/PnL) for each trade, so you can review better.

Thanks once again for your support, I really appreciate it. And I look forward to your feedback in the trades ahead :-)

Wishing you a great day ahead!

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Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received

Inital Analysis (as per 10:00 AM UTC +2) for NQ:


Longterm view:
Target remains at 14050.25, taking out liquidity above August 15, 2022 highs. Afterwards we might be heading downwards drasticly, given unpredictable macro events in the near future. Thats my view.

Midterm view:
We have this New weeks opening Gap (NWOG) between 13370-13378. As stated in the previous analysis, the touch of 13525 has been confirmed and even exceed its target, stretching all the way up to 13554, raising the target range for the next wave.
Next weekly target is between 13213 - 13195 (OTE for next long). Strong support remains at 13080.

Daily & Short Term View:
Overall a strong upwards trend remains, but we are due for a small dip on higher TF, therefore the short term trend starts to look bearish. I assume that the upcoming news this week will help us reach above stated targets to the downside. As of now we could be consolidating for the day. Please see my attached charts for my todays forecast/setup. The yellow arrows represent what I expect in very short term movement.


So let's get to it, my trades from 17.05.2023 (Note: Only the trades in yellow rectangles were taken/got filled):

Trade #1: 1st touch of VWAP Bounce long. Win! +10,5pip
Trade #2: 1st touch of VWAP Rejection short. Win! +10 pip
Trade #3: Wanted to see VWAP reject price here, but it was too bullish. Loss! -10pip
Trade #4: Wanted to see VWAP bounce long here, I almost got TP filled, but missed it by a tick. -10pip

Fun Trade #5 (Screenshot Nr.2): Wanted to see if my forecast works. Got stopped out at first at NY market open, but I knew Price had to retrace as my bias was generally bearish. So I gave it a 2nd try from the above Fib retracement. It retraced perfectly and turned to be a decent win.

2/4 Wins today + 1 extra winning & 1 losing Trade to test my setup.
I always have a fixed SL of 5 PT.

Conclusion: Once again, I need to hold trades longer after placing stop to break even. I am contemplating to also looking for longer intraday setups, and not just quick scalps, since todays trade #5 gave nice profit.


Let me know what you think, your Feedback is more than welcome, as long as its constructive.


Tomorrow is a holiday, I am not sure if I will find time to trade. However, see you guys soon!! :-) Trade safe!



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  #6 (permalink)
 richw 
Legendary Market Wizard in Training
Salt Lake City, UT
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: CL, ES, NQ, YM
 
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Posts: 1,786 since May 2010
Thanks: 2,103 given, 1,498 received

@Mysterion - Entries and targets being missed by a small amount are one of the reasons I am a fan of multiple entries and exits. The markets are going to do what they do, and they don't follow exact lines drawn on a chart.

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  #7 (permalink)
Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received

Inital Analysis for NQ:


Longterm view:
Target remains at 14050.25, taking out liquidity above August 15, 2022 highs. Afterwards we might be heading downwards drasticly, given unpredictable macro events in the near future. Thats my view.

Midterm view:
We have this New weeks opening Gap (NWOG) between 13841 - 13805. We saw a nice push into 13946, it started forming 2 hrs before NY Open. I had a small long here, which I killed wayyy to early.. more on this down below.

Daily & Short Term View:
Overall im expecting a bearish move targeting 13795 or below. There I wanna see a bounce and more upside continuation, max turnaround level would be 13750 for me.


So let's get to it, my trades from 22.05.2023 (today I took live trades on NQ and ES):

Trade #1: I was anticipating this move but couldnt trust my self again -> discipline issue. It was a bounce from OTE (golden pocket), which worked out perfectly. You can see on screenshot 1, that I exited right before the bigger moves... im still biting my butt over manually exiting wayyyy tooooo early. I got spooked because ES was dropping heavily but NQ was holding up strong... However, Im ok with it now, I am learning... Still, small profit also is profit. +2,5pips
Had I held this into the NY Open, it would've been a +120 pip trade... but how can I do so? The mental game would be immensely tough...

Trade #2: Wanted to see VWAP reject price here, but it was too bullish. Loss! -10pip

Trade #3: VWAP Bounce Long! +10,5pip


2/3 Wins today, but used too much size on one losing trade, therefore ending the day slightly red.. :L

Conclusion: Once again, I need to hold my trades muccchhh longer after placing stop to break even. I need to be disciplined, believe in my trade/setup and just let things happen.


Let me know what you think, your Feedback is more than welcome, as long as its constructive.



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 richw 
Legendary Market Wizard in Training
Salt Lake City, UT
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: CL, ES, NQ, YM
 
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Posts: 1,786 since May 2010
Thanks: 2,103 given, 1,498 received

Something to consider.... I read an interesting article several years ago that discussed the benefit of trading multiple contracts vs one contract. As I recall, the article was written by the son of a trader. In any case, he had done a lot of studying and found that trading more than one contract resulted in much greater success. My own experience has shown this to be true for myself. I don't know how many contracts you are trading with each entry, but you might consider using two. In your first trade, if you entered with two contracts, you could take one off close to where you know price is likely to encounter the first significant resistance. Then, you have more freedom to see what will happen with the second contract. If the market continues going higher, you are still in the game. If price is coming back against you, you can choose to close the position or see if it comes back and then goes in the original direction, etc.

Also, try to practice closing the trade at a point of likely resistance instead of closing it out of fear when it is coming back toward your original entry. You will make more profit, especially if you are making wise entries.

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Mysterion
Vienna, Austria
 
 
Posts: 17 since Apr 2023
Thanks: 11 given, 20 received


richw View Post
Something to consider.... I read an interesting article several years ago that discussed the benefit of trading multiple contracts vs one contract. As I recall, the article was written by the son of a trader. In any case, he had done a lot of studying and found that trading more than one contract resulted in much greater success. My own experience has shown this to be true for myself. I don't know how many contracts you are trading with each entry, but you might consider using two. In your first trade, if you entered with two contracts, you could take one off close to where you know price is likely to encounter the first significant resistance. Then, you have more freedom to see what will happen with the second contract. If the market continues going higher, you are still in the game. If price is coming back against you, you can choose to close the position or see if it comes back and then goes in the original direction, etc.

Also, try to practice closing the trade at a point of likely resistance instead of closing it out of fear when it is coming back toward your original entry. You will make more profit, especially if you are making wise entries.

Hi @richw ! Thank you for your reply. I will try using more contracts on 2 different entry levels next time and let you know how it went.
However, a small heads up, im currently shifting apartments and wont be active much in the coming days. The shifting chaos is real!

Hope to see you all soon, trade safe ! :-)

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