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Wishing you good luck with this and watching with interest.
Quick questions, if they're welcome ...
1. Any particular reason for NQ cfd's rather than (M)NQ futures?
2. What's the "volume" you refer to, if they're CFD's - is that just your own broker's volume for their own product?
Thank you very much! Good luck with your trading too !
1-My reason for going with Nasdaq is because my Country of origin is banned by many Futures Brokers and some have heavy Resticrections to even access live data so I went with Cfd's there is not that much difference between the two markets they are almost identical in the volume profile data only difference is when you use order flow and DOM as the volume in CME is more Transparent coming from a Centralized exchange rather than CFD's that is traded OTC
2- regarding the Volume Chart I'm referring to in CFDs is the tick volume by data provided by FXCM and it's derived from an ECN network of multiple brokers, investment banks, and institutional liquidity providers around the globe it is not 100% indicative since its traded OTC in the interbank and not regulated through an exchange
however, it doesn't really make any difference for me.. you can see in the picture below a comparison between both Nasdaq CFd's + NQ-CME the Calculations of VWAP + Volume Profile are almost 90% Identical.. so the bottom line precision of data doesn't matter unless you are an order flow trader using DOM Footprint Etc. and i'm a structural PA trader so yeah.
hope this answered your q's any other q's feel free $NQ CFDs-CME
-the plan was on point today on the green demand Zone highlighted pre-market.. after the market opened I executed a long at the touch of the zone on a retest after a retracement before the market opened Pd RTH low held the support and had my Stop below the OVN Low and my Target was the ON High aiming for 2R Trade.
-Trade MAE was around -22 ticks as I entered a bit early and I was trying to catch a competitive fill with an information Risk rather than having to deal with price risk
-Theoretical Risk was at 1% and Actual Risk Was -0.6% on the trade I did manage to scale my first targets at 120100 and managed to add again after a second retest.
-there was no micro-managing or moving to BE early to remove stress and anxiety only moved the stop below the second Swing Low after the Market held the Demand Zone Again Giving me lower Exposure on the Trade if it Failed. I really don't like it when a Support or Resistance gets tapped multiple times I observed that a zone weakens the more it gets retested and chances increase for the market to break through so my go-to is to go for the first retest- try the second and doubt the third and try to lower risk.
-today it was a bit challenging psychologically seeing the market go up get back again to your entry and see it trade around it multiple times but I held to my thesis and embraced the discomfort and held the trade to its target despite uncertainty with how PA was Chopping.
-Account is up 4.6% today and now at +2% this now gives me 14% shots to the overall drawdown of the account..
- final thought for the day :
I think it is important for us traders not to Carry the baggage of prior Trades whether wins or losses into the Next day.. a trader should remain objective and Clear headed all times to be Ready to Execute the Next Edge.. being taken by thoughts of Remembering prior losses or wins and being Anxious about the next trade sets us up for execution Errors.. and I'm guilty as Everyone Else, especially during rough patches.
Focus every day on just placing good R:R Trades
$NQ Review 28-2-23
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The Market had many wild Swings this Week and OVN broke YD inside day but failed to stay offered and pushed back up all the way up in the OVN Session and found sellers at higher prices again at 8Am EST
The structure is looking More Range Bound but in a Bearish Type Moves Given that Price Took Lows and Highs are being Defended From Monday
Currently, the price is Stuck in a 3 days Range within Monday High+ Low, will Try not to Jump to Conclusions and Trade Directionally until I See a Big Directional Push With Conviction.
if Sellers Continue to push and break below 12000 With H1 Close I Will look to Short on a Retest
if Buyers Keep the price within the Range and Defend OVN Low Will try to look for Scalps back inside the range to 3 Days Balance Vpoc near 12075
or Maybe i will just try to stay away and not force anything..
The Selling Scenario Played out as Sellers pushed twice lower in the open with a nice impulse breaking below the Pd Inside day low + 12000 which is a Bearish Indication + shifting away from 3 Days Balance Range and Pushed Lower Back to last Friday's Range but Still Didn't Take the Wekly lows near 11900 which I think would do in Globex and see how things develop from there
Execution Review
- Missed the First Entry Retest into S/R Flip after the open after the impulse leg down Reason is I was waiting for it to come in Confluence with Vwap but as it dumped I was about to chase it Down with a Higher stop but then i just realized it is useless and not productive to chase down at this point and Boy i Was Frustrated and really Agigtated as it made a New Session Low in a very nice fast move ..
-i went Away for a while and cleared my mind and Sat an Alert into PD-low and as the price Spiked again to the level in the Afternoon and was notified this time came to see a nice setup with a Confluence at VWAP and PD inside day low and as i saw the Rejection on the first 5m Candle i Entred Short targeting the Wekly lows and Session lows.
Trade management was a bit aggressive Coming into the Close so i had one Early Scale and as the market was about to close i started scaling out more and Closed all remaining positions at market close
i was aiming for 1.8R on this Trade as a Final Target but managed to Get 1.2% so the total R:R for the trade is just 1:1 which is not what i aimed for but i don't hold after the close so i had to take what is there and just call it a day
Theoretical Risk was at -1% Actual Risk at -0.45 MAE at 18 ticks which is not that bad
-now Up +3.3% on the account.. so i have a lot of buffer for the Maximum Drawdown at 15.3%
the Reason i emphasize how much Total Drawdown left is to keep my mind in check that I need 15.3 losses in a row to lose the account on a 1% risk basis which has a very very low chance of happening based on my historical stats if I keep executing my edge flawlessly with minimal execution Errors
With this, in mind, this keeps me in check to keep placing good bets and never lose more than 3% a day.
-----------------------
final thoughts:
i think the reason people fail challenges is because of
1-not understanding the Math of the Challenge and how to Skew R Factor for the Win
2- Letting Time Limit Put Extra Psychological pressure to get thing faster for the Impatient.
i will try to avoid falling for the two mentioned above..
1-as long as the Price holds Below the Breakout point of supply at 11900 +below last week + month low will look to short pops into vwap or structural level
2-clean and clear Reclaim with H1 Close Above 11900 With a Structural Shift and Composite LVN being Reclaimed will look to trade to the Long Side
A type of day where you just say it is what it is you did your part and things didn't work out.
i executed short into pd-low retest after the market opened risking 1% and was targeting the OVN Low
after a lot of chop and coiling near my area of interest, I wanted to decrease the size as consolidation near S/R and a price action Build up means a breakout or breakdown coming.. but decided to take a passive approach and be all in or all out so I walked away and let the market do its thing
I got Stopped out with a Negative Slip after Fed Bostic Reaffirming that 0.25 bps is where he stands although he is not a voting member this year but the market took this as a bullish signal after many market participants were worried that restrictive policy is continuing and possibly 0.5 bps rate hike are on the table for the next meeting.
today down -1.2% is not a big deal as we got new information about what the market may do next
Regarding trade management, it could be mentioned that a decent scale at vwap when the trade was in profit is a good location and it won't decrease the overall R:R of the trade. the MFE on the Psition was around +50Ticks before reversing and hitting the stop
Account now at +2.1% with overall drawdown at 14.1%
Tomorrow is another day..and every day is a new beginning.
$NQ Review.
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looking to jump on board with the current up move if I got a retracement back to 12000/12025 after the open the green Highlighted Zone
an H1 close below 12000 invalidates the thesis and will sit a side to see what happens
Daily Hammer bullish Close with a Reclaim above YTD.VWAP + 50DMA
There is an expansion in the ATR range showing more potential for The Daily Range to continue on price Exploration..hopefully, we don't get that much chop like yesterday.
a Gap and Go Situation today on RTH After a big Impulse at 8EST breaking out of the PD Range at that point I figured it would be difficult for that market to pullback all the way back given the gap open so the play for me was to long retest on pullbacks to prior highs after the open and try not to hold for too long..
The main Trade for me was long the OVN Stat after a Breakout and See what happens once the price tag ATR
I took 3 Trades one of them was a loser and two were Winner
First trade Entry at OVN high retest with RTH VWAP Confluence after a Nice 3 Bar Breakout but I committed an error with management after the ISM services News and tried t be smart micromanaging it and ended up being the sucker who puked exactly at the low for a -0.7% loss.
The second Trade is the Same idea of the First Trade but I just gave it a better structural stop at the lower consolidation before the breakout which is mostly how I set a stop. this trade worked hitting tp at 1.6%+ not that great R:R , given where the stop is but it had better odds rejecting again from RTH Vwap +OVN H + 12121 Key S/R of Wednesday High.
the Third Trade is a long of Monday's High Retest + Prior Highs Retest with a Nice Confluence at RTH VWAP with targets near session highs and the Second one Near 12250 and Fibonacci measure move. that trade went smooth sailing all the way to targets with a total of 2+%R
The total for the day is 2.9%+ and the Account Now is up by 5.27%
Final Thought :
Reminded by when Mark Douglas said that when you fear something your behavior and fear will cause you to experience things you are really trying to avoid. well that is really true as I tried to micromanage out of fear and try to be smarter than my plan and my risk management given the volatile move I became the weak hand and puked lows..so? don't be the weak hand if you have a strong read + don't be so attached to your read also and have a clear-cut area where a thesis is invalidated.. a balance awareness between the two in this process is key.
Enjoy the weekend everyone..
More to come next week
$NQ Execution
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