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@mewddsltd solid week, good finish. I need to be more decisive on losing trade.
I woke up early and decided to take a few trades, I did over trade a bit... I need to take step back and watch. It was just back and forth, I plan to spend some time this weekend to narrow down my rules. I hit my daily goal today.
@injpowwetrust .. watched the video to see how you implement your trading strategy .. to be honest .. could not see a well-defined strategy .. more of a placement of a trade seemed to be when you sensed a lot of movement in one direction and hoped the movement continue to your profit target ..
my strategy has its foundation in the Break of Structure (BoS) concept .. of course, some would refer to a bullish BoS as a Bull-Flag or Rally-Base-Rally .. and some might refer to a bearish BoS as a Bear-Flag or Drop-Base-Drop .. a bullish break of structure is simply the process of forming a higher high on an up trend without first creating a lower low, and a lower low on a downtrend without first developing a higher high. In other words, a break of structure is a change in price behavior and signals a shift in market momentum.
BOS-1.fw
and a reversal is referred to as a Change of Character (ChoCh) .. a Bullish ChoCh could be a double bottom (or "W") or inverted head and shoulders .. a Bearish ChoCh could be referred to as a double top (or "M") or head and shoulders .. a change of character (ChoCh) is a slight modification of the Market Structure Shift in that the highs are broken before the price reverses to take the low in an uptrend. For a downtrend, the swing low is taken before the reversal to take the swing high as well
BOS-2.fw
my trades are placed when the price begins moving in the same direction as the VWAP && EMA[14] after a period of consolidation .. I may use a 1-minute chart but I can adjust the number of bars for a supplemental dataset in my moving average indicator so the fastest EMA will use a 2-minute dataset .. also, I modified my version of the OBVM-CD indicator so it only gives setup signals in the direction of the VWAP && EMA[14]/2-minute dataset ( I have tried to use a supplemental dataset but haven't gotten it to work as I want ) .. I have to apply the price criteria on my own ..
I used these criteria and my indicator on today's ES chart and identified 11 trade setups that generated a minimum profit of 9 ticks and a maximum profit of over 50 ticks .. I have no way of knowing this but I suspect the drawdown was minimal .. and certainly, these setups did not result in a losing trade ..
BOS-0.fw
BTW .. I've gotten so I don't use many indicators .. think I need to be more responsive when trading and indicators are lagging .. mostly having EMA // VWAP .. Pivots .. and Supply/Demand
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
on the other hand .. looking at NQ's chart for today .. we see several bars that have very large wicks indicating denial at a particular price level .. these long wicks quite often indicate a reversal in direction .. biggest downside to these trades is the stop loss is much bigger than I would like .. so I tend to not trade these setups .. or, if I do, I move my stop loss to a much more reasonable price point as quickly as I can .. my button strategy will move the stop loss to just past the open for the previous bar .. so even if I don't do anything .. the stop loss moves to very near my entry after the first bar ..
BOS-3.fw
there are plenty of good quality trade setups almost every day .. just need to be patient and let them develop .. then capitalize on them ..
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
@mewddsltd oh yeah, it was a lot of "hip firing" today
My Strat:
1) 60 EMA 2) MACD Cross -> too many false signals, enter to early and heavy
3) cumulative delta -> go in on increase movement
4) BOS on cumulative delta -> works well when I'm patient
5) add another lot on massive cumulative push -> greats when it works, sucks when I over hold ... I have a kill spot in mind before entering trade, but I'm unable remain decisive in execution, hope creeps 6) not intentional, but overtrading or revenge trading aka chasing price
Interesting, mind if I try out our new OBVM-CD on the 1min. I think I need a lagging indicator to double check on prior to entering... I'm too trigger happy....
Sounds a bit wild, but its a Strat with 55-60+% WR on 1:1. So far out of 639 trades, including my crazy red day blowout and oversizing it's a 57% WR. Todays video had a 67% win rate.
@mewddsltd Thanks for the BOS breakdown, I'm going to study it a bit more and see how I can apply on top of the cumulative delta indicator. I need to find ways to reduce the noisy trades I take .. #2 and #6. If I can eliminate them, I know I can pass the PA phase with ease. It all comes down to discipline on stopping for the day when my stop loss is hit. The last piece for me to resolve.
I'm aiming for 70% WR on 1:1r across 1000 trades. That's my holy grail.
don't sleep like a lot of people so I get a lot of programming done between 1 AM - 4 AM .. last night I worked on simplifying my charts .. specifically, combining indicators and creating algorithms to simplify my thinking ..
started with the base indicator .. a VWAP with 3- MultiTimeFrame exponential moving averages .. the MTF datasets are preset to 2-minute .. 5-minute .. 15-minute .. leaving the higher timeframe datasets for now .. but they may get eliminated in near future
then I added the core code for the OBVM-CD indicator that is available in the elite download section .. OBV measures the OnBalanceVolume .. basically who is buying and who is selling .. of course, mine acts like a convergence-divergence indicator .. the convergence-divergence is smoothed with a weighted moving average .. and in the original indicator a signal line is created ..
you might notice the first image is displaying the NQ 1-minute chart .. what you see in the first image are the signals from the OBVM-CD indicator using the 2-minute dataset that are switched long-short based on the VWAP && EMA[14] (2-minute dataset) .. so the logic is ..
.. when the OBVM converts from sellers to buyers ..
.. a buy signal from the OBVM-CD is generated when the VWAP AND EMA are rising
.. a buy signal is NOT generated if either the VWAP or EMA are falling
.. when the OBVM converts from buyers to sellers ..
.. a sell signal from the OBVM-CD is generated when the VWAP AND EMA are falling
.. a sell signal is NOT generated if either the VWAP or EMA are rising
I added a colored cloud around the EMA[14] .. the cloud extends 100 ticks higher/lower than the EMA[14] .. this number is arbitrary but its purpose is to show that the price will move to interact with the EMA[14] when it gets too far from the EMA[14] .. so I would NOT get long if the price is above the cloud and I would NOT get short if the price was below the cloud ..
23 10 06 NQ 1-min a.fw
I added my pivot indicator to the second image .. this is to show how price likes to interact with pivot levels .. as I've said before .. the market has memory .. do you ??.. 23 10 06 NQ 1-min b.fw
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
things went really well at the beginning of the morning .. think I actually had 1-2 more trades in and was up over $500 ..
23 10 09 NQ.fw
my strategy was maxed out so shut it down and tried to trade using Chart Trader .. which is without the assistance of my strategy .. not only did I lose the $500 I earned today .. I lost over $900 from Friday's account balance .. in essence, I lost almost $1500 in the two hours or so of my trading
Summary 23 10 09 NQ.fw
obviously, my "from the hip" trading skills aren't that good .. I need to abide by my trading plan which is built into my strategy ..
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
a friend asked me to update some of the indicators I built for him .. was up till about 3:30 AM .. and the market opened at 6:30 AM .. oops, I overslept .. but kinda looks like I did not miss much .. the indicator kinda looks like the Loch Ness monster ..
the point is .. I may have been late getting to the party but I still had a good (profitable) time ..
23 10 10 NQ.fw
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
soo true .. I messed up and got caught up in the open .. so silly of me, I know this isn't the best time for me to stick my hand in, obviously got burned. Luckily I remembered your quote, and hit the pause button ... it took a bit, but I was able to catch the trend up. That honestly saved my day.
10.09.2023 - some sim and a few trades on eval
10.10.2023 - some premarket on sim, traded eval right before open ugh ...
I've set my alarm now for 6:40 AM PST. I shouldn't be on my laptop any sooner. I can see and check on my mobile devices, but I only trade on my laptop. Lately, I've been catching some pre market stuff, but its has been more detrimental to me. I'm going to stick to the timeframe of trading only between 6:45AM PST to 9:30 AM PST.
the people who have been doing this much longer than me have stated the opening range breakout occurs 70%-80% of the time .. which surprises me .. so they want me to believe that 20%-30% of the time the price stays within the 15-minute candle?? hard for me to believe
NQ chart for today shows
.. the VWAP leading into the open and for the first 15-30 minutes was almost flat .. institutional traders were very neutral ..
.. a move-out occurred just at 7 AM .. then 100+ tick pull-back by 7:14 AM before continuing in a bullish direction .. several other bull flags were created by 9:15 AM .. all consistent with trading with the VWAP
NOTE: I only trade flag setup in the direction of the VWAP .. counter-VWAP trades are too risky
my concept of flag setups is when there is a retracement in price that extends for 5 one-minute bars or 3 three-minute bars and the price then continues in the original direction .. there were other opportunities but they did not meet the definition I use for a flag setup
after yesterday I set a very conservative take profit ..
23 04 10b.fw
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
I came across this person on youtube via friend, tradingwars .. big on ORB and fibs. He plays ORBS only when he sees an inside bar on the daily chart. I can see it being 70% success rate that way, since you are going for a breakout off of the previous daily candle, high and low. I think this style is best for those who only trade once a day, its a one and done kind of thing that you can setup and walk away. Either you are right or you are wrong.
