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APEX 300K+: The Journey


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APEX 300K+: The Journey

  #361 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338

for those not sure what I mean when I say "GAPS LOVE TO GET FILLED" .. not sure of the exact mechanism and not sure if this is a real phenomenon or a self-fulfilling prophecy .. but unlike NQ && ES .. the QQQ && SPY do not trade 24 hours a day .. think they may trade during the EURO but not sure ..

like yesterday (Oct 2) and today (Oct 3) .. on Oct 2 the QQQ closed at 361.310 ..
GAP QQQ 1.fw


on Oct 3 the QQQ opened at 358.78 .. a $2.32 gap down..
GAP QQQ 2.fw


since the QQQ is correlated to NQ and the SPY is correlated to ES .. AND since the NQ && ES trade 24 hours and the QQQ && SPY dont .. we can see a difference between the close of the previous day and the opening of the current day ..

you can see this gap on the NQ or ES by looking at the opening price for the current day and comparing it to yesterday's close .. some will use close during Regular Trading Hours (RTH) and others use Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)

I do not have any real statistics on this .. but instinct tells me gaps get filled 70% - 80% of the time

I have seen NQ price move 100 points in the opposite direction and then reverse and move 200+ in the opposite direction to close the gap ..

I tend to trade a little more aggressively when I see the gap and I see the price headed in the direction of the gap ..

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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  #362 (permalink)
 
phantomtrader's Avatar
 phantomtrader 
Reno, Nevada
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
Frequency: Daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 588 since May 2011
Thanks Given: 217
Thanks Received: 990


mewddsltd View Post
for those not sure what I mean when I say "GAPS LOVE TO GET FILLED" .. not sure of the exact mechanism and not sure if this is a real phenomenon or a self-fulfilling prophecy .. but unlike NQ && ES .. the QQQ && SPY do not trade 24 hours a day .. think they may trade during the EURO but not sure ..

like yesterday (Oct 2) and today (Oct 3) .. on Oct 2 the QQQ closed at 361.310 ..
GAP QQQ 1.fw


on Oct 3 the QQQ opened at 358.78 .. a $2.32 gap down..
GAP QQQ 2.fw


since the QQQ is correlated to NQ and the SPY is correlated to ES .. AND since the NQ && ES trade 24 hours and the QQQ && SPY dont .. we can see a difference between the close of the previous day and the opening of the current day ..

you can see this gap on the NQ or ES by looking at the opening price for the current day and comparing it to yesterday's close .. some will use close during Regular Trading Hours (RTH) and others use Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)

I do not have any real statistics on this .. but instinct tells me gaps get filled 70% - 80% of the time

I have seen NQ price move 100 points in the opposite direction and then reverse and move 200+ in the opposite direction to close the gap ..

I tend to trade a little more aggressively when I see the gap and I see the price headed in the direction of the gap ..


That's very interesting. Have to research that setup. Thanks for posting it.

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  #363 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338


nice && easy day .. 1 contract .. 5 trades .. 96 ticks .. 1 account .. 72 ticks in 10 minutes .. 24 ticks in 10 more minutes .. 96 ticks .. done in 20 minutes

23 10 04 NQ.fw


Summary 23 10 04 NQ.fw


the second day in a row ATR Dashboard has shown NQ having almost 100 tick ATR .. almost 200 tick 2X ATR Stop Loss .. 1% Risk doesn't work for NQ at this ATR .. need 2% Risk or go to 5 MNQ ..

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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  #364 (permalink)
 injpowwetrust 
San Francisco, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 206 since Feb 2023
Thanks Given: 1,237
Thanks Received: 415

Thanks everyone for your comments, I've read them and in the process of figuring out how to apply your suggestions.

My biggest hurdle is still limiting myself to a small red day. I thought last month was the last time.... i ended up with three fat red days.

I just have a hard time acknowledging the red day, and it just comes down to me not focusing on the big picture... I've been looking at it as part of my daily routine, to remind myself the goal is to make it through for a month with small red days.

I've been trading sim last few days, today was back on APEX EVAL... will continue recording tomorrow..

septemeber_2023

Stay safe, stay green friends!
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  #365 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338

@injpowwetrust

thanks for your honesty in sharing your results ..

@OttoBlink .. did you serve in US Marine Corps too??

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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  #366 (permalink)
 OttoBlink 
Lansing, Michigan
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate, NinjaTrader
Broker: Rithmic, CQQ
Trading: Futures
Posts: 17 since Jan 2021
Thanks Given: 104
Thanks Received: 26

Sure did...6 years as a Machine Gunner (various billets).

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  #367 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338

@OttoBlink .. S/F .. thanks for your service ..

started as an aviation fire control technician .. basically the radar, computers, missile guidance system, etc for the F-4J Phantom II ..

was selected for MARCAD in 1970 .. one of the enlisted commissioning programs .. ended up flying in the back seat of the F-4J Phantom II as the Radar Intercept Officer (RIO) .. known today as Weapons System Officer (or WizzO's) .. when you watch the Top Gun: Maverick movie .. I was "Bob"

@phantomtrader's husband was in USMC and was F-4B pilot

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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  #368 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338

had two losses today .. although each losing trade triggered the max loss per trade, the profit from earlier trades offset the loss and my account balance did not trigger the max loss for the day .. so I got my head back in the game .. focused on my discipline .. and kept trading .. the day ended green at +128 ticks ..

three days this week I've had one or more losses .. my biggest loss was about 1.05% of the account balance and most of the other losses were about 0.5% of the account balance .. but overall my week has been green since the second loss on Monday morning .. think my total for the week is green about +400 ticks // +370 ticks (net) .. commissions are a little high from when I switched to more of a scalping strategy ..

my friend Aaron (also a US Marine .. a Mustang.. SSgt > Capt, ret) says the keys to successful trading are
<Proper Tools>
..Risk Management
..Good Strategy
..Good Market Timing

<Personal Characteristics>
..Decisive
..Coachable
..Disciplined

<Self Teaching>
..Learn from Successes
..Learn from Mistakes

<Be Patient>

I need to pay more attention to what Aaron told me 4+ years ago ..

Summary 23 10 05 NQ.fw

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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  #369 (permalink)
 injpowwetrust 
San Francisco, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 206 since Feb 2023
Thanks Given: 1,237
Thanks Received: 415

I woke up late today... I didn't trade today. I'm thinking about taking Friday and Monday off to back test or do some more SIM trading.

Have a good weekend!

Stay safe, stay green friends!
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  #370 (permalink)
 
mewddsltd's Avatar
 mewddsltd 
Anthem, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader8
Trading: Futures
Posts: 192 since Aug 2020
Thanks Given: 40
Thanks Received: 338


day started off really good .. was going to stop but ended up taking one more trade .. a losing trade .. lost $225 .. darn it, watched the market for a bit .. got my head back in the game, and came back strong .. ended with a great day .. today ended a great week .. green +572 ticks (net) for the week ..

23 10 06 ES.fw


love it when the daily profit target ($600) is reached and the buttons disappear ..

Summary 23 10 06 ES.fw

.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
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Last Updated on April 29, 2024


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