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Lou Winthorpe's Modified PATs Journal


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Lou Winthorpe's Modified PATs Journal

  #1 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

Hello traders,

I joined the forum specifically to start posting a public journal for accountability, admittedly with some reservations as I mostly prefer to fly under the radar. I'm not on the Facebook or any other social media for similar reasons, so this journal will be my sole contact with the interwebs and outside world. Let's see how this goes...


What do I trade and when do I trade?

EMini S&P futures, from approximately 9am to 11:30am New York time, Monday thru Friday.


What charts do I use, and how do I set them up?

Sierra Charts. 2000 tick.

I use one indicator, the 21 EMA.

I draw trendlines, channels, and ranges to define context.

I use the chart trading feature, I don't use a DOM to enter orders.


How do I trade?

I trade a modified version of Mack's PATs methodology, and over the years I've been influenced by Thomas Wade's videos and a few others. I break from Mack's strict teachings in that I don't go for 4 ticks profit (I go for more), and I don't like some of the setups he teaches. I only take second entries, 99% of the time only going long above the EMA or short below it. I rarely if ever take failures as I've found that looking for them adds a layer of complexity that negatively affects my decision-making. The exception is when there's a failed second entry that's also a second entry in the opposite direction. I realize there are perfectly good setups eliminated by this preference, and I'm OK with it.

My process consists of drawing channels, trends, and ranges to identify context, then waiting for an appropriate signal bar at a key location to enter a trade. I only take trades with very good signal bars, and I use Sierra Charts color bar based on alert condition(s) to highlight them. So basically I ignore the majority of highlighted signal bars unless they happen at key areas where I'm expecting them.


How many trades per day do I take?

Sometimes none, sometimes 5 or more. It depends on what the market give me. I'm done after 2 hours or so 99 percent of the time regardless - my ability to focus all day is long gone.


What's my stop and profit target for each trade?

I typically go for however many ticks the signal bar is, less one tick. Unless the signal bar is very small then I'll go for more. I enter one tick beyond the signal bar with a stop-limit order, my stop goes one tick beyond the opposite side of the signal bar. I use Sierra Chart to draw a small dash above/below the signal bar at my desired profit target, where I drag the profit limit order. At some future point I'll add runners to the mix, but for now I'm still a piker trading a 1-lot.


Am I a good trader?

No. I've been straddling either side of breakeven for about 6 months now. Before that it was over 2 years of aimlessly trying to figure out what I'm doing. Arguably that process is still ongoing.


What do I hope to accomplish with this journal?

Hopefully it will serve as a document recording my progress and evolution on this journey. Mostly the idea is that having people look over my shoulder will hold me accountable for my mistakes & generate improvement.


We'll start Monday. See you then.

Lou

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  #2 (permalink)
 
bobwest's Avatar
 bobwest 
Western Florida
Site Moderator
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 8,172 since Jan 2013
Thanks Given: 57,514
Thanks Received: 26,292


Louis Winthorpe View Post
We'll start Monday. See you then.

Lou

Good to see you.

Hope you find that the journal works well for you.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #3 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24


Hello traders,

One trade today, +13 ticks. It was right at 9:31 New York time. Second entry long, right off the lower upchannel line and EMA. There were several other spots that were tempting but I passed for one reason or another. Not a second entry, not a good enough signal bar, etc...


Edit: Images added


Thanks, see you tomorrow.

Lou

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  #4 (permalink)
 
deachne's Avatar
 deachne 
Goodlands Manitoba/Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT 8
Trading: oil
Posts: 43 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 59
Thanks Received: 37

Looking forward to seeing some of your trend set-ups, Lou.

Good Luck with your journaling.

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  #5 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

No trades today - I attempted to take one short but I missed it. I didn't get my order in place quick enough.

Lou

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  #6 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

This isn't exactly a compelling journal to read so far, but again no trades today.

Lou

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  #7 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

1 trade today. +8 ticks. Second entry short (2ES) in a downtrend off the underside of the EMA. Small signal bar, probably should have gone for a larger profit target, but it came within 1 tick of stopping me out so I didn't want to get greedy.

The downmove turned out to be very large, but I have to stick to my rules: My profit target is always the same number of ticks as the signal bar. In the future when I'm trading larger size my runner will catch the larger move. For now I'll be happy I didn't move my stop or otherwise mess with the trade once entered.


1 12 Trade 1


1 12 Full


1 12 spreadsheet

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  #8 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

Not a great day. 1 winner, 3 losers. Down for the week, not the best start.

1 13 spreadsheet

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  #9 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24

One trade today. +12 ticks. Clearly I need to trade more when my trades are working and less when they're not.


1 17 Trade


Second entry short with a new low of the downchannel expected, possibly another leg matching the move down from the highs. Price broke out of the overnight range but failed back inside.

1 17 spreadsheet

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  #10 (permalink)
Louis Winthorpe
Bedminster, NJ
 
Posts: 15 since Jan 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 24


Another down day, I couldn't get my reads right. 0 for 2, stopping for the day. Since my best winning day is relatively small I don't want my losing days to get out of control. I'll come back tomorrow and fight another day.


1 18 spreadsheet

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Last Updated on February 10, 2023


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