2023 Rabbit

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nq pulls the show once again, rty decided to join, practicing sells but the ramp continues

nq seems to have a higher target still, looks like the race toward those levels may hit early

es catching up while energy drags, ym is following as well, energy also catching up

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powell in the am, gold is not following, ramp to levels, area is prone to resistance

have to wait until balance and retest but tailwind off the sold straddles remains

nq seems to lead but also is not catching up and might be last to hit target

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es first to target while nq, rty and ym lag though nq is closer to target

possibly overnight rty and ym would catch further and maybe energy as tailwind

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post powell, debt ceil impasse, rty leading, ym too, es and nq lagging

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es now following, nq lagging rty and ym past support, energy related as cl also influenced

if nq participates then supports may test further, vx after rollover kinda strange

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currently prefer ym and es due to defined resistance, rty less so, nq has none

es most favored due to extra kicker after resistance, actually nq has had resistance

and really stubborn, slow moving toward kicker, very narrow so not touching

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kicker may change things, energy not dragging as much, gold actually higher

dollar did a dip, bonds still low but up a bit, nikkei has followed as well

only real setups now nq es things completed for a while.. leave it to expiry etc

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curious to see weekly if things have to catch up there

made a quick decision to not use the topstep live swing, after deel closing

have to put in extra data fees, just running with ticktick for now

and then eventually to live, maybe fun runs with apex sim

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one of the strats is to run multiple accounts to spread risk and apex is cheap for that

however, the data fees add up later, so eventually live but that means sparser entries

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stuff is looking to fade, energy is now fading as well

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today was distributed, esp after debt delays, but very tame

moving away from small window accts, since those can be replicated live

have some fun accounts that still encourage proper methods

most important are still levels, then kickers but levels still rule

instead of feeding sims, will use my current data streams

and contribute chunk to continue improving live

the journey has been fun, in the end this exercise more in spirit than mind

8D

FIN.

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today m2k shorted for a few micros following resistance and fibs

also saw some stocks like zm and v that were dropping so accumulated further

going smaller with shorter duration / higher risk (mostly as short term hedge)

the plan is to keep increasing duration, lowering risk and leverage

where positioning is more important for further compounding

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that was the only instrument really, maybe mes might find support later

otherwise nothing much else, unless there is something unexpected

the environment is setting up such that specs turn swings turn vesting

deleveraging and bringing non-leveraged capital to the broader market

also means that individual stock picking vs indexes might thrive aka btfdmf

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so just saw how energy behaved, and es did test lower, the close was decent

combined, this confirms at least initial support for decent dip/bounce

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lots of dips in big names, semis down as well, however energy is up there

there are some fomc minutes, so playing into that possibly, close to bounce

possibly add longer term to accumulate, see how the close goes

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when vix hit resistance things started a bounce, so that would be a useful level

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using entry and levels, started another swing as vix also shrinks with energy

would use apex but the static is not really a swing for holding through normal hours

also screening through various instruments and stocks for further accumulation

consumer credit, leisure and semis on sale and then some this AM

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of the 4 indexes based on support behavior, es weakest, then ym, then rty with nq strongest

in part from large cap tech, semi and biotech dips vs. other sectors, consumer / rate sensitive

question is, do you follow with strength / leader or take advantage of weakness to get dips

that is where the individual dipping gives more tells, that semis weak but consumer firm

and less biotech but pharma diagnostics, transports actually ok and industrials

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points to ym, not most weak but balanced, maybe small caps / global / foreign as alt

ma, v, lin, vips, wynn, a, unp, csx, tmo, newr, but not on, nxpi, stm, mchp, lscc

mixed bag here, maybe chuck the laggards and ride the strength

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part of the semi puzzle is that tsm, appl, qcom, samsung, etc. lead / take mkt share

big cap dips, like ma, v, a, unp, csx, tmo that is a more likely play, not sure why on is less weak

with this avoiding small caps mostly seems better, though newr bucked that trend

again, healthy tests of vix, at higher resistance, may have to further filter toward larger cap

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points still to large cap tech, where support testing was reasonable unlike es, just slightly

but also exhibiting strength, but indu ym was also tested very much and might be ok

es might as well be the final support and avoiding rty, ym prob held down via energy too

which means nq, though wide has the best exposure and then ym, w/ margin / risk in mind

rty weakness would be the flip side though held support vs. es

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after parsing through qualifiers, can now set and forget, will still monitor individuals

rty lagging, then ym with nq component lifting es. ym and es similar, nq already at next levels

vix turnaround from highs ignited, may have to leave room for end of day type activity

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oh, nvda positive reaction, so partly from earnings type action though ym moves less

semis might have been held but now reactive into next day, if so both es and nq behaved

even rty but less so ym and the post nvda result does show some of that confirmation

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vix seems to be deciding direction and making up its mind, dollar testing

nq from nvda but the ym and m2k are also okay testing supports

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well bonds and gold, energy off, rty responded okay off supports

have to expand variety of instruments, tracking dollar as well

when nq bumps but others do not, behaves similar to a built in resistance

not necessarily a leading index, hmm.. also contract changeovers

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open seems reflexive to mid week, vix also in range gold ran decently o/n

the yellow metal did changeover, and the dollar is rechecking yday highs

so vix and $ giving tailwinds to indexes into the long weekend

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intc and vz are giving some dips, maybe off the competition like nvda

though ai might be a possibility, nvda has not really given proper levels

not sure what this dark activity bodes: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitormonitormonitor/dix

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also interesting is that gold-bond is still supported, with dollar testing

still joined the bid for a bit in m2k but not pushing things too far

a fearful respect like a big wave surfer (not big time) looking at jaws

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this sentiment should save some pain, though semis have recovered some

thing is, dollar keeps churning, would like to see crude dip

there is a possibility if vix supports and energy drags that we are peakish

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at least plateaued, maybe profit taking ongoing, esp with dollar rising

if following the darkpool, then selling here would make some sense

the event is a bit of a process though, so gold-bond type might be the alt

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due to contract changeover entry is confusing, so just using the % as entry

intc recovered with rest of semis, when a large cap / blue chip does this

prob dip buying enviro still, just not sure for how long, esp w/ vol

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aimless after the holiday, which messes things up on schedule, energy is dropping hard, but not enough to find support / eia thurs instead

since we cannot really treat monday as a full day, this is a continuation, but bit of confusion ongoing so bit of ranging misdirection

also a extended push higher might cause positions to be sold instead especially following news conclusions like debt talks (?)

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looked back at aug/sept 2015 when there was a dip, strange because that scenario seemed to be volatile, but expanding levels

each expansion was never complete, so positions either had to hold their nose and just buy anywhere or just wait things out

or maybe the historical data was incomplete and there was a hard dip / flash (8/24/15) there and just was not properly displayed

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otherwise pretty much, volume lower, summer, waiting.. cinemark dipped some, summer movies, etc.

looking back at 2015 flash, buyers 8/20-24 would have taken a drawdown, but quickly been okay as well in the following days, not sure on holders as, the process took more than a month to really properly grind higher

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more fluid today, after the long weekend seems like dips ongoing, nq with the nvda influence

ym seems to join energy, though crude is lower maybe more conviction with consensus

still running through scans to pick up dips, small caps weakest link currently

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crude higher, small caps healthy after pull back, nasdaq did not dip but semi ranged

vix and dollar lower, prob cannot dip too far into nfp

2023 Rabbit

2023 Rabbit

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2023 Rabbit