2023 Rabbit

April 6th, 2023, 02:42 PM

lack of ft esp ym, composite shows better since large caps altogether do not reflect reaction from growth

considered early stage, esp w/ pre data bump, energy unch too

//

last hour filled with rejection, snooping on spx shows large oi 4k

might be a hard setup

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let the last hr to post fomc play out esp pre if things stall/hang in the air

exp. poor num or something but likely not drastic enough for hopeful cut

just a guess, trend still intact.. even a cut in context would not be good news

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dropping some

April 10th, 2023, 11:39 AM

tricky area, but the composite is showing resistance

even with dow higher vs other indexes, energy is off as well

would also give unchg since last week globex

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bit of a flex zone, overhead tests of resistance are still valid

overall the pull back is drawing near, the process is not quite complete

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higher part of range though energy has an influence on some indexes

April 12th, 2023, 10:48 AM

random but xbb variants include itchy eyes and higher contagion

specifically xbb.1.16.. masks do not cover the eyes and kids are susceptible

https://t.co/VaSl5Y3js3 with india showing most cases

mutants are again able to escape antibody neutralization, symptoms more severe

dubbed arcturus, previous was kraken, branching off ba2

//

been watching nikkei since usdjpy pairing, resistance finalizing after cpi

also breaching lower, some domestic indexes are off as well

with such a view, the time is really split AM/PM with next session starting PM

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each wave seems to infect a larger part, steepness is higher w/ most recent waves

hopefully not masks + protective eyewear req

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eating away at highs, each drop decays upside possibilities further

most indexes have caught up and are challenging supports instead

April 13th, 2023, 12:32 PM

decent round off resistance, shallow down channel keeping things afloat

works well on both sides, no complaints.. whether higher yields ok w/ banks tbd

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nice blip keeps revisiting level though not exact

April 14th, 2023, 12:47 PM

may have been a swing setup

quick test brought on follow through

volume has been meh

hitting volwtavg and running past pivot

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some congestion / support around area so exiting

again, would be good swing LT entry

but attributing separate PM session as initiation into next week

light data, cn gdp mon

EOD/W

April 16th, 2023, 04:45 PM

exit post cv19 for cn may boost gdp numbers

also the depreciation of yuan is still fixed, not also cad, aud, in / bric energy is not lagging far behind

and that foreign rates will perpetuate global easing vs. domestic

spurring continuation of import-export imbal / stimulate global econ

again, specifically those that can control inflation of which some cannot

and makes servicing us debt harder on exchange rate terms

estimated that pass through of 10% increase in $ = 1%+ in inflation

aside from nations that can keep up in a sort of economic selection process

domestic inflation would be masked as import buying power increases

as does domestic business, keeping the cn-us exp-import relation cycle

//

some readjustment may have to occur and investment flows may move offshore

esp to economies that can keep pace / benefit from forex and trade imbalances

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Images/IMF/Blog/Articles/Blog-Charts/2022/Dollar-Blog-chart-264.ashx

in light of currency intervention, when govs run out of countermeasures

then domestic easing may have to step in to temporarily soften the adjustment

in the framework not of stimulus but maintaining global stability

regardless of recessionary impulses that may be necessary to readjust

one benefit is energy commodities can wane and find relief domestically

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cassandrabcs and hartnetts might be close with cmbs

but the latter could also represent the new vampire squid w/ devil in the details

like predictors of both price+time (derivs included) need personal dd

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another look

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cn gdp and earnings, etc. pre-run but might not be enough

April 18th, 2023, 10:39 AM

revisiting upper areas, possibly limited follow up as move covered wide sweep

energy temp supportive, vol is relatively low and has been, giving protection

upside may be limited, at boundaries, opposite move would provide clues

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nflx back to unchg, though prob revisit, season extends into may so PM session will be odd

April 19th, 2023, 10:55 AM

tsla reports PM, wonder if current resistance breaks, overall neg but decent bounce

some support found but hard to run into counter, low vol enviro decent / less crazy

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another low vol earnings, though misses on tsla, suggesting much priced in

supportive, though there are areas with minor corrections

April 20th, 2023, 03:51 PM

rithmic outage, global (use alt serv)

otherwise, dt after testing highs, but supportive as well.. no earnings

kinda swingy for the current vol also a bit blippy on minor tf

energy still downtrodden as well

tradeovate is still up though which is interesting since ninja owns

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bounce at close, still rangy, up vs down moves bit different

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not the greatest day, volume is lower, vol up though

energy bouncing slightly, still see large spx 4k p

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for the vol, seems like a more typical day vs. past few

maybe vol improves after hitting upper levels, bunch of LLs/LHs

still energy has been supportive

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googl msft next tues bit wary

then meta amzn then aapl start of month into nfp

so feels are pending, low vol until data

April 23rd, 2023, 09:55 AM

generally, large cap tech can take temp measures to increase earnings, but less so revs

so maybe one/two-time positive adjustment, but again temp

add onto this competition like openai/gpt and there are forecast headwinds

jumping onto the bandwagon, like meta going ai does require spend, neutralizing any bottom line improvements

since such projects are mid/longer term especially if newer endeavors vs. places like googl or msft with prev. ai implementations

if, though these new subcos have actually been working behind the scenes are ready to production, that is new potential revs

amzn / msft are looking also at cloud revs to buffer consumer spend challenges

something like nvda might be able to benefit from ai through gpu hardware

//

also interesting is overall domestic sentiment toward outside entities

if collaborative, possibly able to mend some of the rough patches

dismissive, then a sort of stand on last legs into self-defeating conflict

the acceptance of diversity, fading of egocentric importance

would bury old, entitled qualities opening doors to collaboration

the least flexible being those that benefited most from old ways

laying in the shadows of embers from long lost causes

either collapsing from the dusty weight

or accepting new possibilities for regrowth

//

diplomatic ai could negotiate in full detail, with weighted importance

and cater to the needs that benefit the most parties

with less bias, without serving personal agendas

with decent, resourceful economic goals

2023 Rabbit

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2023 Rabbit