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2023 Rabbit
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#11 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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after the deluge, we are in a similar spot, though dropping still not in panic mode
targets have been hit, but remain in balance, some data points but now sentiment leads
the default pick should never be singular and biased one way and commodities might lead
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#12 (permalink)
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boston ma
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the large moves signal some type of significant level, whether reversal or continuation
these large ranges are normally during post fomc, the current context is more broad based
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#13 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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crude is popping, vix chill and tech lagging. viewpoint is that the 4050 puts are sold/bought on the weeklies
dragging sentiment is definitely putting a damper on things
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#14 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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fear is not there and dips bought, very close tipping points, but the battle is there
technical or not, the existence of a semi fed put is still there, past the tightening
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#15 (permalink)
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boston ma
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Timing on those sold puts @ 4050 ES weekly as vix hit highs. Any extreme dips could also be exercised.
Consider also that USD/JPY is a carry and dollar strength can still provide risk on environments in context of VIX.
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#16 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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context of the pullback in a longer term downdraft but also GDP data next week
those 4050 weekly puts have been steadily declining in price since last week and are now considered 0dtes
would expire worthless / or exercised ITM possibly.. the dip today had less of an effect than overall decay
//
a look further into next week and there exists additional 4050 puts expiring Tues FEB/21/23
after that into Weds FEB/22/23 (FOMC minutes) Thurs FEB/24/23 GDP the 4050 level thins out
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#17 (permalink)
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boston ma
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excess here likely a shakeout, but for mid term type plays, volume in the 4050s has already matched the open interest
in brief, an extreme positioning event with good r/r
excess has hit target and is now less biased, again more neutral
maybe those 4050 0dtes were exercised, but any case, the wave can be considered dip-ish
mostly by comparing the overall downwave vs. previous upwave in magnitude, more like a pullback
continuation would be data driven by upcoming minutes/gdp
//
if less sensitive to day to day, then this area is positive for accumulation
would be considered a mid-stage entry in a longer time frame
..
as rate increases have not caused significant systemic shocks
and make room for event-based tail risk events (war, disease, etc.)
..
the interest rate on bonds also provides compounding to offset any interest due
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#18 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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BUY
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#19 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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calling this the clinch phase, where trend peters out and determines where next the compass points
late stage dips may possibly considered early stage accumulation with the caution that early may require a stomach for drawdowns
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#20 (permalink)
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boston ma
Posts: 182 since Dec 2012
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from a longer term perspective, 2022 was a drawn out process
holding through with hedging was one solution for taxation
or, those with mid-term views may have exited Q1 '22
where Q3 '22 - Q1 '23 was a chance to accumulate
where the last such period was in 2019-2020
even longer term was 2010-2011, and so forth
not sure about supercycles
this quarter was a re-priming and action more behind the scenes
squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
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Last Updated on March 20, 2023
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