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bwolf's ES Daily Trading Journal

  #61 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Thursday's observation posted above about a possible strong continuation played out with a big trend move on Friday. I had an overnight position that did well Thursday into Friday, but took it off too early on Friday, especially given my outlook.

Here are the main levels I mapped out for myself on the daily chart for next week. Right now, looking at the 4hr chart, now the ES is at the Feb descending flag DSTL mid / pmVAL resistance. A pause & retest of the 4016 area pwPOC & descending Feb flag mid would be logical. Then trend continuation up to pmPOC at 4145. That's my baseline scenario going into next week. Anything can happen but this is what I'll measure against. I work on the 100-tick chart so this just sets out the HTF roadmap for context. (I should qualify that, insofar as when I go for larger swings I just look at 15 min/ 4hr charts, I just mean most of my intra-day trading is on the 100 tick chart).

My goal this week is to trade really small, like 1 to 2 micros. I really want to focus on process with as little emotional interference as possible. I am coming back a bit on my recent decisions to run down one path of setups, then backing off and running down another (i.e., ACD, then pure scalp, then just VWAP levels). There are a lot of valid asymetrical setups. Some work better on some days than others. My main issue is not the setups, it's trading too large relative to my account size in whatever setup I end up doing.

I am going to get back to assessing the various market drivers using my assessment matrix. Then qualifying price action within the ACD framework, as that always gives me a good idea of day type and direction (if we take off from A up or down, at least an extension from IB is likely, if not then probably more of a range environment). I do like VWAP analysis and came across JonnyBoy's thread about it the day before yesterday, and this has been very helpful. I think it works well within the ACD framework. Then scalping order flow within ranging environments or outside in from the extremes using the VWAP Stdev map. All of these are good and I am ultimately just better at playing good setups as they show up and focusing on my profit goal or stopping if I get max net losses money management rules. Not trading too large and observing the money management rules are the only things that really matter, or that matter most for me right now. Not taking one huge swing after a series of small wins is another big one not to forget. Not getting caught up in the dollar amount of trades, especially when trading small and regretting taking a 15-point swing with 5 MES vs 5 ES, for instance. Hope everyone has a great week trading.





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  #62 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

P&L Profit (P) / Expense (E) / Neutral (N): P
Trades: 4
Round Turns: 9 (MES) - (I trade on Sim for ES orderflow, copied to Apex accounts)
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors: 0 ES Pts
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: Med
Event Day: No
Preparation: 9
Market Alignment: 9
Execution: 9


One trade in Globex yesterday, two in RTH. I have to leave for the rest of the day so cutting it short. I made notes over each set of screenshots for today's trades.





First trade last night in Globex. I went long looking for a move to 4060 and possibly to the 20 MA above (this took 2 tries, so technically 2 trades. First one I took with 2 lots right over a price rejector that was broken and took it again a bit lower with 1 lot and added another back when it reclaimed the lost level). I set the two profit tagets. First one was hit and it pulled back. I gave it time but noticed a price rejector at the top of the first 30 min bar where it had initially gone to the first target, then two more on the next two bars, so I closed it. It came back down for the rest of the night until not long before RTH.







My lean today was for a retrace after an initial move up. I was looking for rejection at the A/ C levels 4071-74. I decided to take one on the way up before shorting. I closed it at the big absorption that was taking place in case it didn't even make it to those levels. I had more faith in the short than the long.




I shorted it at A up and then scaled in higher, but as the trade unfolded it didn't give immediate rejection and was turning into an A-up qualified long trade, so it lost validity for my immediate short. I was still leaning short overall, but there is always the risk of shorting into a trend continuation, plus I have to leave for a meeting this morning, so I changed tack. I went for a ledge break fade on the stop run and scaled in with 4 more MES as it shot up, then went for a few ticks on the move back down.





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  #63 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


P&L Profit (P) / Expense (E) / Neutral (N): P
Trades: 4
Round Turns: 26 (MES) - (I trade on Sim for ES orderflow, copied to Apex accounts)
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors: 0 ES Pts
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: High
Event Day: Yes
Preparation: 9
Market Alignment: 9
Execution: 9

The P&L is inaccurate because NT8 doesn't track trades. It doesn't group trades when you scale in or out. I only had 4 trades and no losses. I took some screenshots and made notes over each set.

Today my scenario mapped out on Sunday (posted here too) played out: pullback to 4016 was my take at the time, but the DSTL I had highlighted now moved down to 4000.








On the first one I was long at the open, expecting a move back up into the range. I was in the bathroom when Powell came on and when I came out one of my two lots had been stopped out. I scaled in below and added more size and took it back up for profit before it got sold again.







I was stalking long below and took this short on the way down to my long.






I had multiple levels lined up for this long, to scale in, but it just went up to profit.






This one went much further down than I anticipated. I got in at a zero print, often a level where it turns back up. But it kept going and going. I scaled in and was in with 20 lots total at the end. I didn't scale the last 10 until 12:30 PST as it was headed back up and I wanted to make sure I got it. This is one where I moved too soon and should have spaced out my scale in sets better, but 20 is max and acceptable (actually was in with 10 for 95% of the trade).






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  #64 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Lots of scratched trades today. Got caught in the chop and bled. Managed to get whole on the second to last 15-minute bar in the ES, but didn't have it in me to hold it past slightly better than breakeven, and of course, it kept going. Days like this are not my best. No good screenshots today.

It's never the number of trades the P&L states as NT8 treats each contract as a trade (unless they all fill at once, but there is no consistency as far as that goes).

P&L Profit (P) / Expense (E) / Neutral (N): P
Trades: 18
Round Turns: 33 (ES & MES) - (I trade on Sim for ES orderflow, copied to Apex accounts)
Errors: 5
Cost of Errors: 20 ES Pts
Risk Plan Adherence: No
Opportunities Available: Low
Event Day: Yes/No
Preparation: 8
Market Alignment: 6
Execution: 6


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  #65 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Today I didn't follow all my usual protocols, take notes, etc. Just hyper focused on trading. My P&L is actually for premarket trades that got me out of a hole I fell into early in Globex yesterday, when I got caught in a big sweep down right at the top of the session and then made it a bit worse before I got myself out. The trades here are the ones that fall under March 9th. The other ones came behind my March 8th trades and I can't separate them from RTH. The long and short of it is I am net positive $215 (per account - I always show just one of the accounts, they're all the same) since my previous post here, which is basically my daily goal on these accounts so I am going to call it a day.


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  #66 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

It would have been a perfect 100% day, were it not for a small oversight...

I did a three Globex trades at the open yesterday, and banked 14 pts. I was going to go easy today and turned everything on, then turned away to another laptop I have on a stand to vent at someone I had a bit of back and forth on regarding the SVB situation (all my business accounts are/were with SVB...) and so I didn't pay attention when a tool I use that is technically a strategy that I turn on and off at certain spots was actually turned on and trading all by itself (I always forget that it goes to "Trading On" when I start it up and I have to turn it to the Off position so it doesn't go off trading by itself. Usually I catch it right away, but I was distracted). It's an orderflow strategy I developed with different variables. I just use two of the 11 options I have at certain inflection points: 1. trigger on bid or ask volume decline twinned with 2. imbalance and/or absorption -- all set to whatever contract specs and percentages I input. It doesn't do well as a standalone strategy, I mean it can be and I have run it as a strategy with other inputs added for certain situations, but right now I mainly use it just as an order entry tool where I expect a reaction and for that, it works well. So, anyway, it was trading away all by itself and it made a bit of money first, taking the P&L to 20pts before giving back 16 pts. That's when I saw what was going on. So I turned it off and did 4 more trades that took it back to 29 pts on the day.

No screenshots, and no self-assessment scores today. I am actually working on some brand new stuff and had not really been planning to even do much in terms of live trading today. That's just how things unfolded. I have more going on than just new setup development. There is, to be sure, some new stuff I stumbled on this weekend that is just phenomenal in terms of locating incredible inflection points. Nothing I have ever heard about or seen before. Complete fluke as I was running calculations on gamma levels to check on something (I am keeping it very close to the vest!) .

But more than that, the thread on Discipline in the psychology section that some of us contributed to gave me some ideas and filled in some blanks. So much, so many things all at once! I am digesting it all.


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  #67 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

P&L Profit (P) / Expense (E) / Neutral (N): P
Trades: 4
Round Turns: 5 (ES & MES) - (I trade on Sim for ES orderflow, copied to Apex accounts)
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors: 0 ES Pts
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: Med
Event Day: Yes
Preparation: 9
Market Alignment: 8
Execution: 8

Did one last night at Globex open (short) and that was my main trade, then three more in RTH today, all shorts. The first was 1 lot ES right after the open, then a couple more. Kept the last two trades real small, just 1 micro. Scaled into the second one with a 2nd micro. The first one on that was my only "loss". I meant to scale out as it went into profit and accidentally hit buy on both, so one was in profit and the other essentially a $5 scratch, but the trade was overall profitable.


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  #68 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

P&L Profit (P) / Expense (E) / Neutral (N): P
Trades: 4
Round Turns: 4 (ES & MES) - (I trade on Sim for ES order flow, copied to Apex accounts)
Errors: 0
Cost of Errors: 0 ES Pts
Risk Plan Adherence: Yes
Opportunities Available: Med
Event Day: No
Preparation: 9
Market Alignment: 8
Execution: 8

Done in the first 15 minutes today. Put on three Globex trades last night which netted about 1 pt and then 7pts more on my first trade in RTH today. I'm over my daily profit target right now. Gonna do a bit of Sim trading and wrap it up early to deal with other things I have to attend to.



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  #69 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Don't know if it was just me, but today was incredibly hard to trade. I was able to undo most of the damage. I'm just going to post the P&L. Don't have anything else left in me right now.


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  #70 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


Done for the day. I'd go on more today, but it's that time of day, plus I have to do other stuff.

Today I tried something different. I was trading the largest Apex combine vs the ones I normally trade ($7.5K drawdown vs $2.5K). Up to now, I had been trading multiple small ones. My thinking was that the ratio of drawdown to profit needed for these is more favorable on the small ones vs the large ones, so if to trade small and have multiple small ones the math works out better (lest risk needed overall to achieve profit goal).

However, there is a lot to be said for the peace of mind of more room to maneuver, plus I think that my neanderthal trading brain doesn't quite compute it the way my System II brain does. In other words, the lizard brain always wants to revert to seeing meaningful P&L, not have to always calculate what they add up to across multiple accounts and be forced to trade small. This is especially the case when I am tired. I'll revert to a bigger position size automatically and blow the evals. I don't know if there's anything to that. We'll see.

In addition, yesterday when I was really struggling in the combine size, I was doing really well full size. Thus, I am always trading ES in sim and copying it to my combines in order to trade ES order flow regardless of whether I am trading ES or MES and I set the copier to convert to MES for the combine trades. Besides being able to trade ES order flow it also protects the combine accounts in case I get some weird strategy malfunction (I've blown combine accounts in the past due to strategy order cancellation issues and found if I copied from sim any malfunction would stop at the sim account). All this to say that by default, I can see what the P&L looks like for ES and MES (i.e, in my sim vs combine accounts). Yesterday, I ended up with -($240) or so per combine accounts, but my sim account, which had been set to ES the whole time was +$6,500. The drawdown on it was pretty big, it would have taken a $7.5K combine right to the edge. But I wasn't actually trading a $7.5K combine, I was just trading MES in sizes from 2 to 20 lots. I wouldn't trade that big (ES) on the high side on a $7.5K combine, but it nevertheless demonstrated something. Scalping in ES vs MES was much more profitable. (I should add that on the small combines I toggled back and forth between ES and MES vs my sim account which was in ES the whole time).

We'll see how it goes. This is today's P&L including Globex & RTH.



'

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