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Trading psychology driven journal. Bund/Dax


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Trading psychology driven journal. Bund/Dax

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  #1 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

So I've been at this game for 2,5 years. Blew my account around 10 times. 50k lost total. Biggest day loss was 20k on October 13th when the US CPI data was out. I try to do "convicted" trades that either I cut them off too early/ hold on for dear life when they go against me. I mentally prep with my plans, notes and whatever. I even got a plastic "shield" that goes in front of the computer that lays out the rules.

On the US CPI data day, I was mentally prepped for what was about to come. I go short the bund pretty fast after the data came out. Build up to two contracts, take off at 170 profit because my mind is telling me "no way I can have a great price, it must retrace". I repeat the same trade with the same profit. Price goes fast down while If I held the first one I would have been 1k on profit. I see a key technical point, I go short again and it goes straight in my favour. Take off because my mind is telling me "it must come back retest that point, I'll go short again when it does". Price just falls down and never goes there. I watch it fall and notice a great opportunity to go long and take it. I find myself in a situation where my account size is at a point where I would have been positive over a six month period. "Alright this must be the trade." Trade goes against me and "I should let it hit my stop if it behaves like this" I take a small loss and now I am still positive on the day. I short the lows, marry the trade because obviously the "fundementals" sign that this should go lower. I take a 10k loss and the rest of the account goes with it because I return to the comfortable idea of Gary Norden that I should take small wins even though If I try something like that I get 10 wins and the next 3 are losers that wipe me out.

Yesterday was the same type of deal. Russia hits Poland with missiles. I see the information, take small wins on the Dax mainly because I already burned 50% of my account 5 hours prior trying to do a convicted trade that already went through it's course. Again, small wins while clearly I could have upped the size and gotten triple what my original account starting position was when the news came out. "Now I got this" I see that it should take a second rebound on a technical level. Tight stop, all in. " I am not going to make the mistake of taking this off until it starts moving fast down". I am pretty much on profit the whole time and it's going my way. I start clapping my hands with exitement "Alrigh, now this is my convicted trade, this is how it is supposed to be done". I am close to being breakeven on the point where I last added money but "this must go south!". Apparently Pentagon denies all rumours and price goes against me fast. Hits my stop and I am down 75% on the day. The rest of the account goes with it because I start trading like Norden.

The past 5 months I've tried those convicted trades but for some reason I can't get them to work. I take a large loss when I am wrong and small win when I am right. The funny thing is that the day after the US CPI data came out with the small amount of money I had left I took that convicted trade, held it, ran it through fully understanding what had happened and doubled my account. And I felt absolutely horrible because the day prior was a -90% day.

I slept like 3 hours last night. I have planned on having a 5 month leave from work to concentrate on trading mainly due to the fact that I have been burned out due to work. As an independent contractor my company has the resources to support me for those 5 months and I got contracts lined up after those 5 months so day to day income is secured but still if I add money to my trading account I would be taking off from my reserves that support me. I left my past relationship mainly due to me not being able to stand her overbearing nature. I still can't help but think that maybe the bigger reason I left her was because I am addicted to this and now I am trying to seclude myself from everyone. The same with my 5 month hiatus from work. The funny thing is she supported me in my journey to become an self supporting trader and I think that was her best quality.

But I digress from my original idea why to write my first post and start journaling here. I am finally at a point where I can't lose more money. I can't keep doing this that I lose bunch of money and see my kids with trying to keep appearances that everything is ok. I feel my oldest one is smart enough to notice that it is burning me out. We have a funny convo where we joke that it's either I see myself as succesfull person building "generational wealth" or he comes to see me when I am living under the bridge. I think my youngest is sometimes just watching me after having a bad day and wondering what is going on.

So I got 6 months before I'll know if I need to call it quits for a while or forever. I'll add the last bit of money after two weeks and I won't add more. I am going to concentrate on this journal at obviously the trades, money management and taking losses but there is something that happens to me when prior to taking a huge loss. Sure, I would need to have a fixed stop at what point I quit for the day and so on but what on earth is going on that I can't take that loss and quit? That is the key on why I keep losing so much money. That is also the reason why I want to continue on this journey as it really reflects on how weak my discipline is. Sure 100% I want to make money and build "generational wealth" or whatever but that weak discipline is something that causes me pain in my day to day life, trading or not.

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  #2 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Apologies in advance, I'll figure out as I go by how I present my journaling to you all, especially post frequenzy. I have noticed a long time ago that if I don't have enough time to journal each setup well enough I am already overtrading and making decisions too fast, at least at this stage in my career. All times presented are local Finnish time.

16/11/2022 7.30 Long [email protected] +1 tick scratch

There is a trade what I call "News not enough". It usually occurs when there are enough shorts wanting to buyout when the news just was not enough or there is unknown player buying out. For example the week where US CPI numbers came out on 13.10.2022 was also the week where Bank of england had bond buying program going on. I have yet to see them on the short side in all markets. There are few factors that goes into these so I'll post them here. These can be multi day moves and I do not call them "position building" eg they do not last. I saw something like that going on the DSX/Dax markets but after I entered the trade I realized in what sort of state I was in esp. what happened yesterday. So I just took a 1 tick win to exit the trade. It ended up going 10+ ticks in my favour @16/11/2022 8.04.

-Did not spend at least 30 minutes before starting
+bid/ask volume was surprisingly liquid considering what time it was
-no higher highs
-not in actively traded hours
-haven't traded so early in the morning in a while
-what would I call an X factor that would say that there are shorts that would exit? There are no reasons for this to work.
-didn't go through my evernotes to check what should I think before entering this sort of trade.

I need to start writing about the state where I am right now. I've gotten myself out of this sort a hole and it is completely psychological in nature. It happens especially after a blowout day and lasts for a couple of days to a week.

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 tr8d3r 
Sydney+Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: futures
 
Posts: 40 since Feb 2014
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@Smokii, I'm not an expert in this field yet and you are free to ignore what I am going to say.

First thing that needs to be done is stop trading all together because you can't do same thing and expect different result.

May I suggest you to get back to work. It will stabilised the situation a bit and you can spend your focus on a book that call "trade to win" by Ari Kiev.
You will find a lot of answers in this book that will help you to move forward.
You only done it for 2.5 years some people like me were doing it for last 8 and only now starting to realise what is it all about.
Let's be open here.
All you are concentrating on is a how much you made. We all want to get reach quick, this is why we came to the market.
What I've learned on this forum and started to realise after 8+years playing on the market is, It is not about money. It is all about process. Money comes as a reward.
Your post is lagging that process. What exactly are you doing, What is your strategy, what is the probability of it?
Have you executed it day in and day out for at least 3 months to have enough trades to see the success rate of it. What are your maximum drawdown in comparison to a profit.
Are you scalping using DOM?

Just think about it logically. Why trade live if you still can't archive the result on the sim.

There are people who goes against funding companies, I personally think it is the best thing. You pay 150 dol and they are testing your skills.
Based on your trading strategy are you comfortable that you can pass it based on their terms? if answer is no what is the point risk your own money.

It also looks like you are trading very large size in comparison to your account, and i understand why. It is desire to make it more and now. There is a good saying the slowest one wins the race. I think it perfectly fits here.

If you have 10K on your account, perhaps you should only trade 5 macros may be some will say 10. Again it is hard to say because nothing mentioned about the maxDD you have.

The people on this forum are very helpful and keen that everyone is succeed in this field. The thing is you are the One who need to do a heavy lifting.

Park it for now, Pay for a full access to the forum (it is handy), and read the book. Answer every single question in the book. Trade the SIM, run the journal explain how & what you are doing and ask the right question.


Just to make you comfort 90% here is struggling with max draw down (big loss) it is a human nature. Once you pay for a full access you can see how many evaluation accounts blown up for that reason alone.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received


tr8d3r View Post
@Smokii, I'm not an expert in this field yet and you are free to ignore what I am going to say.

First thing that needs to be done is stop trading all together because you can't do same thing and expect different result.

May I suggest you to get back to work. It will stabilised the situation a bit and you can spend your focus on a book that call "trade to win" by Ari Kiev.
You will find a lot of answers in this book that will help you to move forward.
You only done it for 2.5 years some people like me were doing it for last 8 and only now starting to realise what is it all about.
Let's be open here.
All you are concentrating on is a how much you made. We all want to get reach quick, this is why we came to the market.
What I've learned on this forum and started to realise after 8+years playing on the market is, It is not about money. It is all about process. Money comes as a reward.
Your post is lagging that process. What exactly are you doing, What is your strategy, what is the probability of it?
Have you executed it day in and day out for at least 3 months to have enough trades to see the success rate of it. What are your maximum drawdown in comparison to a profit.
Are you scalping using DOM?

Just think about it logically. Why trade live if you still can't archive the result on the sim.

There are people who goes against funding companies, I personally think it is the best thing. You pay 150 dol and they are testing your skills.
Based on your trading strategy are you comfortable that you can pass it based on their terms? if answer is no what is the point risk your own money.

It also looks like you are trading very large size in comparison to your account, and i understand why. It is desire to make it more and now. There is a good saying the slowest one wins the race. I think it perfectly fits here.

If you have 10K on your account, perhaps you should only trade 5 macros may be some will say 10. Again it is hard to say because nothing mentioned about the maxDD you have.

The people on this forum are very helpful and keen that everyone is succeed in this field. The thing is you are the One who need to do a heavy lifting.

Park it for now, Pay for a full access to the forum (it is handy), and read the book. Answer every single question in the book. Trade the SIM, run the journal explain how & what you are doing and ask the right question.


Just to make you comfort 90% here is struggling with max draw down (big loss) it is a human nature. Once you pay for a full access you can see how many evaluation accounts blown up for that reason alone.

Thanks, I'll hear you. I'll most likely try to take it easy and try to limit myself to sim or use smaller size and keep it stable. Funding companies I think have a tax issue where I am from, maybe I am wrong about it, I remember I researched about it a long time ago. Sure I'll upgrade to Elite member.

I am currently working but I have been planning on this vacation for a long time and I need to do this. I am also going through medical surgery finally as I've been postponing it long enough.

I went live after I had success in the sim-> had moderate success, increased size a bit too fast-> blowout-> add a bit-> had moderate success etc etc.

The full 50k is not like straight down line, I had great success with penny stocks during that covid meltdown 2020 and gained 20k.

Yes, you are correct that I am too much concentrating on my account size. I have noticed that I have different phases in my mentality depending if it's after a blowout, if I got moderate success or I am pushing it on trying those confident trades. I just keep having those great confident trades when my account is small. So there it is, I should keep my position sizes small and keep it stable for the time being. This is part of the process that I need to change in me.

My setups are either based on the news or situations that develope. Ideally I would have one or two trades per day, most days would have nothing. I use orderflow depending on the situation. I have a general idea where the trade should go at least. Ideal trade time is +20 minutes. I think most of my problems are related to not observing orderflow AND observing it too much. I do have an technical insuffiency related to it but I think the technical aspect is not the worry, it is the psychological side of it.

Like I said, I want to observe myself while I trade live and be accountable of it, either by posting it here, unfiltered, taking advice from you all if you guys want to do it.

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  #5 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

16/11/2022 15.17 Long DGZ -9 ticks
16/11/2022 15.30 Long DGZ +15 ticks

I had to trade the Schatz as it is mildest of the EUREX bond space and I don't have enough on my trading account to trade other bonds. First trade essentially had no situation, only a number. Look, I was tired and I had the inclination that a channel would break. That is of course not enough as per rules. The first entry was when DBZ was below 139.60 and I realized that US retail sales numbers were coming at the bottom of the hour. Dumb as I was, I moved my stop to a point where I thought that the loss was enough for me. Bund had one time framed the after UK open so I thought that this was the best opportunity to go long.

As US retail sales numbers came out and I saw immediately that the setup was News Not Enough as the pattern emerged. Entry was at top of the "fast" range and held it correctly without fear. The only thing in my mind was "I wish I was in bund" and " I wish i could add". I held until 106.760 as I thought that for Schatz this was enough as I think these News Not enough trades are liquidation moves and they don't hold or make sensible One Time Framing patterns. Plus 106.780 is a spot where ECB rate decision came out and US Industral production numbers were coming out soon. If I had allowed myself to add, I would have done so when the bund rose above 139.60. If I had a crystal ball or thought about my targets more clearly, I should have anticipated that the liquidation will take it across the "Caught In The Hole" situation that happened on 11.11.2022. I don't think that there is no reason for some daily One Time Framing to happen after if 140.60 breaks with ease.

+Spent 30 minutes before starting
+Been getting higher highs this week
-Tired
--Did not observe orderflow in either trade.
++Monday and Tuesday "Went too far" trades happened. Now that the shorts tried to take the market down essentially 3 times with no luck I had anticipated something like this would happen. Was too early on the first trade.

This is the exact same thing that happened 13-14.10.2022: I blew my account on thursday and with what money I had left I traded the News Not Enough on friday. This is the thing what I am trying to fix, I keep repeating the same patterns over and over again.




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  #6 (permalink)
 tr8d3r 
Sydney+Australia
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: futures
 
Posts: 40 since Feb 2014
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As much as I want to agree with you, I don't believe it is a psychological issue.


Smokii View Post
I think most of my problems are related to not observing orderflow AND observing it too much. I do have an technical insuffiency related to it but I think the technical aspect is not the worry, it is the psychological side of it.

It is more about understanding and process. Most of the people are trying to avoid the news trading because of the risk involved. Market can spike up and tank down within the same minute. May be it is a time to review and reassess it. Perhaps even switch to other product.

I noticed that you are using Jigsaw, you should have an ability in and out extremely quick. Shortcuts can help with it.

Are you able to explain your entry and exit criteria? If it can't be done in simple terms, it is a tough call because it is becomes 50-50 game. Visit AXIA futures channel they can explain things in simple language. I totally get when you say fundamentals etc at the end of the day you are executing the trade with an expectation that you are risking "X", and it will go to certain price. Assumptions is you are relying on the DOM and you have define strategy with a set numbers.

Are you recording your screen and later reviewing it? or You just trade and leave it for a day.

The reason I suggested to take evaluation is not to generate the income from it. It is to test your ability, and push you to the limit by sticking to the rules.

Income is a last thing you should be worry about.


P.S - > Please read the book and answer every single question there.

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  #7 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Like the move like yesterday in the bund, I did base it on pattern which I have seen a fair bit already, does one actully need to observe orderflow? The defined risk was apparent that the lows were there after the news. What about the first Schatz trade? I did not define the risk, it was open to intrepration. This is what journaling is for.

I record my trades with a screen capture software.

I do have Jigsaw, but I can't use it with Amp Global. Jigsaw has a problem with the MT5 platform with stuck trades that cant be removed. Tried to ask for help just recently from them but customer service there was useless. I watch Sierra Chart data feed, 95% of the time it is faster than Amp (Which I think is based on CQC). Other option would be IBKR+Jigsaw but with it I have tons of problems that I don't want to visit again.

I use MT5 dom and pretty much only use market orders because issues related to MT5 platform. I need to sustain myself and prove myself consistently so I can use my companys funds to trade. Trading with company funds releases me from the tax issues related to living here. I could then open up an brokerage account wherever I want and trade whatever assets outside of Eurex.

I need to research the tax issue I mentioned before if I want to consider funded accounts.

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  #8 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

I decided to trade. I have a break before I start working again later today so I wanted to see what markets had going on them. I did not know that Hunt would release it's autumn statement right at my break. Might trade later if I got the time.

Statements I made before I started trading:
17/11/2022 13.10 GBL might go up daily One Time Framing so currently I don't have any setups to go with. Only news based trades should be concentrated on.
17/11/2022 13.12 GBL and Dax intraday movements seem to have no catalysts
17/11/2022 13.13 Dax been consolidating for a while and would nice to see a real Went Too Far trade to the upside. 14-11-2022 Had a Squeeze, If it goes there I wanna see how it behaves.
17/11/2022 13.25 Hunt UK Budget coming out. I think it is going to be more closely in line with what the bond space needs
17/11/2022 13.28 Need to remember: GBL most likely to OTF to the upside, whatever Hunt gives should not make it go down massively. Still no trades


17/11/2022 13.43 Long DGZ +5 ticks
Hunts budget came out. Like I said on my timestamped statements, I only saw GBL one time framing to the upside so I was only looking for longs. Plus an wide IB so any break inside the range should have a bit of speed to the upside. Bund had some slight absorption around 140.60 before the Hunt speech so after GBL broke 140.35 (double bottom after open) and IB low it was just to wait for .60 to break above. Took the trade off after 106.850 was getting close as I did not have any conviction to hold this (+I think after the first move IB plays become choppy). Initial Jobless Claims was coming in an hour anyway so I would have needed to reduce size if I had multiple contracts. Placed the stop at below 106.800. If I could do this again on the Bund I could tried to add before 140.60 predicting it would break but that would be gambling TBF.

+Had 30 minutes prep time...
-Mom came to my office to pickup her winter tires, Stopped my thinking for a while.
-I don't have that many trade setups if I think Daily One Time Framing is happening. I try with low expectations to get some scalps in.
-If I am concentrating on a scalp, I should also consider my full stop at .795 an emergency one.
----->If I got low expectations for this to make many ticks, maybe I should not trade these...
+Kept watching orderflow at the beginning, middle and the end
+Great moment for entry. 0 Ticks offside even though I entered with an market order
++Schatz was relatively lower than other Eurex bonds
+Thought about fading 106.800 but did not do it even though it could have made even more ticks
+Saw a channel break before it happened
--Did not write about IB size today or the possibility that IB low longs should work, I simply realized it when GBL was hitting the edge with Bobl and Schatz pushing higher at the same time

17/11/2022 14.27 Bonds started to move higher and fast. Maybe it was because UK Autumn statement ended? I've seen this happen before, I need to add this to my memos if I can trade it somehow.

Feels easy to trade these sizes even though my account balance is so low. I need to figure out a way to hide my balance.


___________________________________________________________________
I continue trading:


17/11/2022 15.51 I saw that after bullard made some comments and sent the bund down. I kinda saw that after the 14.27 volatility kinda formed a Went Too Far trade.

17/11/2022 15.54 15:41 Short DGZ -2 ticks

After IJC and US housing starts I wanted to enter on the second leg down on a Went Too Far trade but started to think that maybe this is a V-reversal and I should consider what I said about Daily OTF to the upside. I got stuck and watched prices fall down. Entered the trade while bund was getting stuck. Got out because I thought that the stuck phase took too much time.

+Bund got "stuck" like it used to prior to pushing through lows at around 140.10
-IJC and Housing starts slightly positive
-US Philly fed index
-Entered at a point where the stop would have been higher than what would have liked
-Entered late
-If I held it I could have waited for it to really drop sharply down
-Kept watching orderflow to find my exit
-went finally 11 ticks in my favour after I exited my trade.

17/11/2022 17.58 Now in hindsight I should/could have:
- kept a clear head on where the second leg could turn and use it as knowledge on how to place my stop
-See that if it was a v-reversal the shape of the v- should be sharper
-expect yesterdays market profile ledge to break
-concentrate on something larger than that IB trade because like today, 1st trade was a scalp 2nd trade was trying something larger, so my stop should be considered to be a stop where I am wrong, not an emergency stop. Either I quit scalping or figure out how to not trade like a scalper if I am trying something larger
-try to keep an open mind if I think today is going to go higher

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  #9 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Forgot to attach explanation charts:

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  #10 (permalink)
 Smokii 
PORI FINLAND
 
Experience: None
 
Posts: 10 since Jun 2020
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received


So this was supposed to be an psychological trading journal. So here is some. Like I said in previous posts I do feel that there are different states where I am. Pretty close to a year ago I found out a state in me what I called "Explorative". Impulsive thoughts, joyful, careless and my ego is pretty tough at this point. I think my youngest is 75% in that state, the rest is when he is tired, hungry or crying. This state is something what I would want in a bar setting trying to woo women. But not with trading.

On Tuesday I was trading the bund and I've been anticipating that those "Went Too Far" trades that kept happening would fail and the range would break pretty violently. I got a setup what I call "Fade Went Too Far" that's the opposite of an WTF trade that gets people who are trying to push the market down trapped. It's usually news that causes the "FWTF" trade to start. Now usually I think these WTF trades are sorta like position building trades that usually end up resulting in One Time Framing to the downside. Fading these moves usually are not something that should last that long as they are more of a liquidation move. So anyway on Tuesday I make short scalps when the trade starts, move is fast and I look at my pnl number and I see that I am doing ok. I start thinking of that it should break to the upside as the US CPI numbers were positive for inflation last week and this is the second failed WTF in a short time. I load up everything I got as the market pulls back to 139.60. I am convicted that 140 will break.

But oh boy. I see that there is a sort of Head and shoulders pattern emerging as the volatility increased. These patterns seem to present themselves as the speed of the market has increased substantially. You can only see them on a short range chart. Pretty impossible to trade them. I've tried to think of ways to trade them but it's like you need to forget everything what you think the market has done and either reverse or load up on your existing position. I've done it once correctly but I could not hold my position to realize this is something bigger.

I think to myself " No way this is going to reverse now, I must trust in myself" and I keep getting stuck trying to be right. I lost 50% of my account.

Now I know what some of you are thinking. Reduce size and it will be easier to make decisions. But I wanna find out If I can actually change/train myself to become a fast trader. I see stuff fast and I think about the end result fast but changing my existing idea takes too much time.

So back to the explorative state. I think that state somehow triggered on Tuesday as I got more confident in my trade. The confidence grew as the trade became more correct. It's kinda like I hit a trigger that can't be turned off quite easily.

Now part of the reason why I wanted to start this journal was of course figure out my issues related to trading but I think I got the courage to talk about my realization about my explorative state because I found out that this was not something completely crazy that only I thought about. Even Jordan Peterson talks about it in this video:



So maybe next I'll start looking for that Ari Kiev book and if I find answers from there related to this explorative state and why it is so damaging to me if I trade.

To do: How do I recognize that state fast? How do I learn not to do anything in that state? How can I use it to my advantage?

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