Thank you for the thoughts. I agree with you my strategy will likely result in failure. I use a stop of 1 to 3 ticks because that is the most I want to risk on any given day(about 50 bucks). The natural solution would be to trade the MES and use wider stops but I stubbornly refuse to trade the micro contract. Why do I refuse to trade the MES? The answer probably has something to do with my ego...I want to trade the ES and be a part of the biggest futures contract in the world.
Higher interest rates are driving stock prices down. Higher interest rates are driving mortgage rates higher helping to cool the housing market. Higher interest rates are doing what the Fed intended as the price for raw materials go down. Just take a look at crude, above $110 a barrel around the Ukraine invasion to now just north of $80. As interest rates go up stocks like Meta are looking cheaper with a 14 times forward PE.
I have to stay disciplined. I went from 20 trades and losing $200 a day in the MES to 1 trade and losing $50 a day in the ES. So moving to the ES was a huge improvement in my results. I just can't get careless and stop following my plan. I need to keep making improvements one day at a time. I plan on continuing using a 1 to 4 tick stop in the ES, just one trade a day and that will keep me safe. I will continue saving up my chicken so I can increase the number of contracts I trade. I am trading 1 ES contract right now and my 1 year goal is to trade 10 contracts all while keeping my risk down to a minimum. Patience is also key for me, if I don't feel comfortable trading I wont.
