Yeah I have put on trades and gone to appointments before without much stress, trusting the market would at least hold my level. I definitely feel a lot more comfortable with oil since I started trading it last year. I think about probabilities. If the oil market is down $2 on the day I would say there is a 60-70% probability that the market will a least hold the low price and find support. Also if its late in the day like noon and the market is pushing highs and price is staying within 15 ticks of that high then the market will likely continue grinding higher and a short is probably not good there. I also look at velocity. If the oil market is pushing lows and the price breaks through the low with a gap down of 20 ticks then price will likely continue lower and a long is probably not good there. So there are ways to avoid bad trades as well.
Buy lows and sell highs
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Oil market down 4% right now, looking for longs
I think the micro oil contract is gaining popularity with over 100K contracts traded today in the July contract.
Long @9:23am EDT
Entry 70.37
Exit 70.40
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @10:45am EDT
Entry 69.61
Exit 69.63
Result +$2.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @10:48am EDT
Entry 69.55
Exit 69.58
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Long @12:51pm EDT
Entry 69.37
Exit 69.40
Result +$3.00 stopped out with trailing stop
Buy lows and sell highs
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I missed the long off the bottom in the oil market this morning I had a doctor appointment. That long would have been good with an entry at 8am to 9am when the price rallied 200 ticks off of the low of about $67. Now nearing the highs of the day and shorts may be in play.
Also, its not even noon and the MCLN3 contract has traded more than 100K contracts, I am impressed with that.
1:38pm no trades, price has been in the middle of the day range which I usually don't trade
Buy lows and sell highs
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