Blackgrey45 Journal

(login for full post details)

6 trades
1 contract each
Market MES

Short @10:55am EST
Entry 3952.25
Exit 3948.25
Result +$20.00

Short @11:25am EST
Entry 3964.25
Exit 3962.25
Result +$10.00

Short @11:42am EST
Entry 3971
Exit 3968
Result +$15.00

Short @11:57am EST
Entry 3977.50
Exit 3974
Result +$17.50

Short @12:50pm EST
Entry 3984
Exit 3980.25
Result +$18.75

Short @1:04pm EST
Entry 3993.75
Exit 3990.75
Result +$15.00

Daily Result +$96.25

(login for full post details)

Dmonz

Then we have a different approach to the market. Maybe you have enough capital that it doesn't hurt you to lose 1 to 2k every month. I still could imagine that there are more fun ways to spend that amount of money. But I am not here to judge. And thank you for being open about it.

It could help you by showing you if you can expect to win or lose money. Take your numbers as an example.
In the worst case you have 1 tick win and 20 tick loss. To calculate your break even: 20/(20+1)=0,95
That means you would need a 95% winrate to only break even!
In the best case scenarios you have 3 tick winners and 15 tick loser. Then you still would need a 83% win rate to only break even!! And again, that is before commissions. It gets worse if you add commissions.

I can guarantee you, that if you stay on this path, you will lose all your money...

Yes! You also have to think about letting your winners run longer. You are already doing it on the MES.

If the MES is less taxing on you, that indicates to me, that the money you are risking on the ES is maybe not insignificant to you? If that is the truth, then you should stop the gambling approach, trade less size and think about changing and/or refining your strategy.

Having fun is important. But if you are in the markets to make money and/or your losses hurt you financially, you have to rethink what you are doing here, because right now, based on your numbers, you will lose your money.

I think I am in agreement with you on all points. I will not last much longer on the current path I am on, especially trading the ES. I have to change my approach because I can not afford to lose $2K a month. Also, I need to work on the size of my winners and losing trades because its impossible to achieve a 90% win rate. Maybe I can shoot for a 1:1 risk reward and a 60% win rate or something. I am continuing to trade 1 contract in the MES, so I can risk less than trading the ES. Thank you for your concern.

-Blackgrey45

(login for full post details)

blackgrey45

Maybe I can shoot for a 1:1 risk reward and a 60% win rate or something.

I think this is much more achievable and a much more realistic approach.

A 90% win-rate is unbearably difficult. And even if you can do it, you're still going to have 3 losers within 4 or 5 consecutive trades at some point, which is hard to handle. On the other hand, I strongly disagree with the widespead view that you should always aim for a minimum of 1:2.

At the moment, I normally aim for 1:1.33, myself (i.e. the target is normally one-and-a-third times the initial SL distance) but I know people trading 1:1 steadily and successfully with win-rates about 60% or a fraction higher.

(login for full post details)

Tymbeline

I think this is much more achievable and a much more realistic approach.

A 90% win-rate is unbearably difficult. And even if you can do it, you're still going to have 3 losers within 4 or 5 consecutive trades at some point, which is hard to handle. On the other hand, I strongly disagree with the widespead view that you should always aim for a minimum of 1:2.

At the moment, I normally aim for 1:1.33, myself (i.e. the target is normally one-and-a-third times the initial SL distance) but I know people trading 1:1 steadily and successfully with win-rates about 60% or a fraction higher.

Exactly, when I was trading the ES I would go for a risk:reward of 10:1 trying to go for a 90% when rate. I would hold a loss until it hit my daily loss limit of $200 and I would take an average of 2 ticks profit. Stepping back and looking at what I was doing I realize I was flirting with disaster and that was in a slow market. In a fast market my stop could have been triggered in a matter of seconds. Now I am implementing a risk:reward of about 2:1 and shooting for a +60% win rate in the MES market. I like to keep my reward smaller than my risk because I try to allow the volatility to trigger my take profit price. For instance, in the MES market I shoot for 8-12 ticks of profit and risk maybe like 20 ticks.

(login for full post details)

Strategy: BLASH (buy lows and sell highs)

8 trades
1 contract each
Market MES

Trade 1
Long @12:42pm EST
Entry 3954.75
Exit 3948.50
Result -$31.25

Trade 2
Long @12:55pm EST
Entry 3947.75
Exit 3951
Result +$16.25

Trade 3
Short @1:09pm EST
Entry 3957
Exit 3954
Result +$15.00

Trade 4
Short @1:21pm EST
Entry 3963.50
Exit 3960.75
Result +$13.75

Trade 5
Long @1:30pm EST
Entry 3936.75
Exit 3939.25
Result +$12.50

Trade 6
Short @2:54pm EST
Entry 3945
Exit 3945
Result $0.00

Trade 7
Long @3:02pm EST
Entry 3942.50
Exit 3945.25
Result +$13.75

Trade 8
Short @3:18pm EST
Entry 3952.25
Exit 3949.50
Result +$13.75

Result for the day +$53.75 without fees

(login for full post details)

7 trades
1 contract each
Market ES, MCL

ES Trade 1
Long @1:35pm
Entry 3978.75
Exit 3978
Result -$37.50

ES Trade 2
Long @1:37pm EST
Entry 3978.50
Exit 3979
Result +$25.00

ES Trade 3
Long @2:01pm EST
Entry 3976.25
Exit 3976.50
Result +$12.50

ES Trade 4
Long @2:29pm EST
Entry 3978
Exit 3978.25
Result +$12.50

ES Trade 5
Short @2:47pm EST
Entry 3973.50
Exit 3973.25
Result +$12.50

MCL Trade 6
Short 3:19pm EST
Entry 67.87
Exit 67.77
Result +$10.00

ES Trade 7
Short @3:53pm EST
Entry 3986.50
Exit 3986
Result +$25.00

Day Result +$60.00 (fees not included)

Strategy:
Write out my strategy
Dont trade if i'm not sure
Exit losses
Take a break after a loss, at least 30 minutes
Losses are part of the game and I need to learn to handle a loss better

(login for full post details)

13 trades
1 contract
Market ES, MES

Trade 1 MES
Long @9:49am EST
Entry 4022.50
Exit 4022.50
Result $0.00

Trade 2 ES
Long @9:53am EST
Entry 4021.25
Exit 4021.75
Result +$25.00

Trade 3 ES
Long @10:25am EST
Entry 4011
Exit 4011.25
Result +$12.50

Trade 4 ES
Short @10:29am EST
Entry 4012
Exit 4011.75
Result +$12.50

Trade 5 ES
Short @11:51am EST
Entry 4009.25
Exit 4009.00
Result +$12.50

Trade 6 ES
Short @1:06pm EST
Entry 4010.75
Exit 4013
Result -$112.50

Trade 7 ES
Short @1:13pm EST
Entry 4015
Exit 4014.75
Result +$12.50

Trade 8 ES
Short @1:15pm EST
Entry 4015.50
Exit 4015.25
Result +$12.50

Trade 9 ES
Short @1:26pm EST
Entry 4016.75
Exit 4016.25
Result +$25.00

Trade 10 ES
Short @2:16pm EST
Entry 4015.25
Exit 4014.75
Result +$25.00

Trade 11 ES
Short @2:44pm EST
Entry 4020.75
Exit 4023
Result -$112.50

Trade 12 ES
Long @2:46pm EST
Entry 4022.75
Exit 4022.75
Result $0.00

Trade 13 ES
Short @2:57pm
Entry 4025.50
Exit 4027.75
Result -$112.50

Daily result -$200.00

(login for full post details)

Back to the MES
Strategy: BLASH(buy lows and sell highs) Other than that continuing to gamble and trade for my pure enjoyment knowing my profits can be taken away at a moment. Also continuing to work on risk management and exiting a loss gracefully.

5 trades
1 contract each
Market MES

Trade 1
Long @1:04pm EST
Entry 4012.50
Exit 4015.75
Result +$16.25

Trade 2
Short @1:45pm EST
Entry 4018
Exit 4015
Result +$15.00

Trade 3
Short @2:26pm EST
Entry 4019.75
Exit 4016.00
Result +$18.75

Trade 4
Long @3:52pm EST
Entry 4011.25
Exit 4014.50
Result +$16.25

Trade 5
Long @3:59pm EST
Entry 4006
Exit 4009
Result +$15.00

Daily Result +$81.25(no fees included)

(login for full post details)

Strategy: Buy lows and sell highs

12 trades
1 contract each
MES and MCL

Trade 1 MES
Long @10:54am EST
Entry 3992.75
Exit 3995.75
Result +$15.00

Trade 2 MCL
Short @11:53am EST
Entry 73.61
Exit 73.78
Result -$17.00

Trade 3 MCL
Short @12:13pm EST
Entry 73.63
Exit 73.86
Result -$23.00

Trade 4 MES
Short @12:50pm EST
Entry 3998.75
Exit 3995.75
Result +$15.00

Trade 5 MCL
Short @12:57pm EST
Entry 73.92
Exit 73.82
Result +$10.00

Trade 6 MES
Long @1:05pm EST
Entry 3993.75
Exit 3996.75
Result +$15.00

Trade 7 MCL
Long @1:07pm EST
Entry 73.63
Exit 73.73
Result +$10.00

Trade 8 MCL
Long @1:44pm EST
Entry 73.48
Exit 73.58
Result +$10.00

Trade 9 MCL
Long @1:54pm EST
Entry 73.50
Exit 73.62
Result +$12.00

Trade 10 MCL
Long @2:09pm EST
Entry 73.51
Exit 73.26
Result -$25.00

Trade 11 MES
Short @3:34pm EST
Entry 3993.25
Exit 4004.75
Result -57.50

Trade 12 MES
Short @4:05pm EST
Entry 4006.75
Exit 4005.25
Result +$7.50

Result for the day -$28.00 fees not included

(login for full post details)

4 trades
1 contract each
Market MES

Trade 1
Short @9:33am EST
Entry 4042
Exit 4042
Result $0.00

Trade 2
Short @10:00am EST
Entry 4045
Exit 4042
Result +$15.00

Trade 3
Long @10:46am EST
Entry 4034
Exit 4038
Result +$20.00

Trade 4
Long @3:06pm EST
Entry 4049.25
Exit 4052.25
Result +$15.00

Daily result +$50.00 no fees included

Blackgrey45 Journal

Discussion in Trading Journals

Blackgrey45 Journal

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!