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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)


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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

  #41 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: waiting]

pending non-response, still staring and seeing that there is risk happening

there were lows from which action sprung though under previous open

LT seems like the development is mid-stage and energy is powering along

[mood: online]

guess being offline is not that bad, risk manager is in effect or something

re-visited the open area to see if there is more willingness to participate

would seem that dips are active, since targets hit, switched to less active

[mood: observing]

closes would indicate more about portfolio adjustments, crypto giving clues

vix also in 20s and swapping feels from yday, controlled unradical motions

[mood: ahead/forward]

looking ahead, the yday pm zigzag hinted at an area of contention, waiting

dropped via energy, but also support hurt if early but recovery pending

that effect was a non-essential factor, so after digesting, possible position

support tested, https://ibb.co/2ZhsmsQ (yes, phone trading only)

[mood: boarding]

same idea, re-testing, also a bit of a HL to look out for a HH and so forth

EOD

the last half gave an opp for positioning, held under with an indecision tree

whether they start collecting presents and ornaments unknown, still have to..

bring out the cookies and milk and wait for santa, dreidles, festivus stick, etc.

** hint if you look closely the highs and lows tell a story **

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  #42 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: gdp ok]

have to wait for eia, but no negs so far into comments, energy is higher as well

air being let out a little but not uncontrolled or uber dovish per previous comments

bands currently slightly lower vs. yday but anticipating slightly higher at these lvls

[mood: internals lagging]

growth leading, risk seems on, but internals dragging, eia energy on pause

whether equities should lead could confirm via earnings, but the run up is subdued

expectation have been adjusted lower so, any optimism might be a plus TBD

[mood: internals re-aligning]

some re-jiggering ongoing, while indexes hug/coil forming an interesting reload

fixed is actually in a decent spot as well, regardless of inversion for benchmark return

crypto survived the ftx bump and looks to be strong enough to survive such scenarios

[mood: opposite think]

opposite lock, jalopnik, etc. that expected low morphing into side slip is forming a drift

nfs apex glide deals ongoing, using to test scaling strategies, prob best setup rn

question is, with double risk, is there double reward using the scaling method, etc.

[mood: break into event]

flattening out, on ST see what the PM close gives, EOD

the moment you value lunch and indigestion prevention is when you truly get risk-reward

took profit on a hanger, letsgo not due to the gain but strategy carried out correctly

[mood: post-analysis]

the shift higher has created a band shift, one possibility is a reversion which could revisit

the bands would be less extreme then but provide a new area to generate levels

overall there has been a paradigm shift and risk is back for various sectors

[mood: buy at close]

for the swing, buyers created, demand is in and the bands shifted to a new level

new month, that was a monthly close with incoming data pending fri on nfp

carefully monitoring inflation / too dovish / area phrases being used w/ lower hikes

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  #43 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107


[mood: energy watch]

since yday energy lead going higher earlier than indexes away from inflection

watching this monkey play pong with neuralink lmfao is that a crack pipe

the LLHL is still in effect, watching defense near the inflection for indexes too

[mood: successful defense]

watching the area being defended properly, sometimes rithmic disconnects

one thing is that energy is still sustaining, though vix has shot up but correcting

mfg contraction does limit yields, bonds unfazed with tamed inflation data

[mood: looking at platforms]

tradeovate has browser/app while rithmic is standalone/app, so browser is +

and charting also present is really in a pinch on the mobile, connectivity is ++

finally not really for super leverage, due to some occasional mistakes

[mood: observing]

EOD, may have completed the set, not sure, just amazed by survivability

LT am still positive though crypto showed some weakness for the day

ongoing dance that is pulling up the averages higher above inflection


extension, possibly end + and establish candles > LT smas.. would confirm

[mood: how to ascend]

devil: should be fine

angel: no, don't do it, not a good time

devil: what could go wrong

angel: uh, will probably go against you

devil: screw that guy, he is scared

angel: yes, because things will go bad fast

devil: nothing even happened yet

angel: just wait, and nothing will happen

devil: but you will miss everything

angel: maybe, but at least things will be fine

[scenario 1: devil takes over]

success/failure, see it worked/oops (probability with experience, < 50%)

[scenario 2: angel somehow overrules]

missed op/better entry, there will another / great patience is good (>50%)

when scenario 2 becomes the majority, may trading angels be with you

[possibly scenario 3: angel overtakes devil]

wow, what a stupid mistake (devil laughs, angel appears takes over)

devil immediately becomes silent, angel forces devil out and gets small

back to scenario 2, with a scars from the devil

maybe scenario 3 happens more before scenario 2 becomes the norm

this is the part that is hardest to transition through


also, with scaling / bigger risk limits, the temptation becomes greater

as bigger risk comes bigger reward.. but also greater responsibility

only scale higher as the angel:devil ratio increases proportionally

as per ross and jz:

The devil is a lie, bitch I'm the truth
The devil is a lie, bitch I'm the proof
The devil is a lie, the devil is a lie
Bitch I'm alive, the devil is a lie


controversy here is that "a lie" is also alive, don't get it twisted like balenciaga

//

there is also the notion that decision making / decisions are formed sub consciously

and that biases are already there when the conscious realization of the decision is made

so deep down subconsciously there needs to be a proper foundation, un-destructive / pure

to not enable oneself to be destroyed.. that is hedge against oneself, maybe even a mistrust

scary to think about, but a part of discipline and self-control is realizing the dark side

//

another method is to reverse the modality to engage the inner nihilist but in the correct manner

all temptations become meaningless, automatic entries, dark and bleak.. but is that enjoyable?

even better would be to believe you see the matrix itself and take the corresponding red pill

instead of the angelic blue pill, and acknowledge the rank, cesspool cynicism of making due

the transformation implies embracing a devil-like mentality but risen from the ashes of the dead

to become part of the living, seeing what utter decay and ruin awaits those who do not repent

stone like, too worn out for fear, you step into the fray but with such devil-like mannerisms

without the will to do evil because you have seen and done and felt the dark side thoroughly

in such a way, almost autonomously there is no interest in seeing any more destruction

the devil/instinctual/alive/primal/nature exists, basic and in tune, not ethereal and spiritual

having seen evil, without attempting to fight or cure, but finding enough to not contribute

nor embrace or amplify any ill will, though understanding the underlying lurking darkness

you blankly choose, the right path, good nor bad, just is, without sugar coating, banal, blank

emotionless, mechanical, perhaps in the black, greys, drabness overtakes, business not pleasure

possibly, having arrived. part of the living dead, zombielike in nature, amongst the walking dead

//

anyway, the current area is forming a new node, wobbling around to secure a new poc

souls are being collected.. the behavior is similar to earlier in the week, with the mid-base

somehow the nfp will have a similar effect and provide a way to bump the inflection point

//

also note that both energy and vix have dropped during this hang time priming the pump

the most recent resistance is flattening out possibly giving way even prior to the am

levitation requires that inflation be tamed without harming critical economic readouts

//

for the coil to complete, there needs to be a rewind on the vix, energy nymex is closed

can provide a HL and LL with a decent range, leading to a deceptively daily unchg

the overnight would resume the sidewinding to build and overtake as poc node



such a defense would avoid inflection point causing the dominos to tilt the other way

a bit precarious but the balancing act seems to in favor due to pending news / hesitation

the corresponding move after the news would have to be more muted, but pull levels



again, defensive mode where dip conviction has to have somewhat constant drive to succeed

on a final note, what happens post-humous to the lyrics, that once dead do they turn:

i'm a lie, the devil is alive, etc. as we reconcile living in a simulation, a truthful lie


as to why the occult is more fun and sinister, whereas being good is only temporary

we take the fruitful chaos in our hands complete with the reigns diving into the depths

to see both the scorching purification of embers wafting as the phoenix rises from ashes


the amalgamate is more pure, forged and resistant and we evolve to survive a bit longer

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  #44 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: late on nfp fri]

well, vix and energy are ok, the mfg portion of nfp suffered but strong otherwise

LT is intact, though the inflection point was breached, there will be a re-test at some point

the goal now is the push the levels higher for the re-test since the advance is still in favor

[mood: turning on supports]

have to look in advance at support levels now, with a default revert to earlier in the week

ongoing reluctance at maintaining the higher poc, so we languish at current levels

vix happens to be in a grinding stasis until re-testing as well, as any drop would be bounced

[mood: mfg]

looking at production numbers and weakness in mfg, there is a two-sided story

the industrials are now early into r-word while service is more resilient, what is the core

consumer demand is necessary, but what % of consumption is due to industrial factors, etc.

[mood: political]

though economies should not collapse on fundamental production, there is the term PEIS

political economies of industrial societies, to garner votes, the policy should maximize outreach

consumers/individual headcount would increase votes vs. money gained in political donations

[mood: overall]

so attempts at buffering the consumer and allow a slowdown in the background are ongoing

backstop spending, overall non-energy based, industrial production as inflation mandate

less panic, easing of inflation via energy and hopefully buoy the mfg sector on the wayside

EOD, looking at the level implications, the LT is still maintained and futher opps for positioning


also interesting is crypto which has maintained throughout vs metals, bonds

the next few session will also be full of chop as the LT is competing with the ST in opposition

this would be favorable for generating level compression while staying afloat for the dip


actually not compression per se, the lows have already been hit, but still can level up overall

been a slow session, to the point you forget you have a position, but really just filling, etc.

pay attention to the moc and action for clues, but there is likely another hard dip in the works


finally EOW, energy again dragging lower but in sympathy with vix, the mandate is ongoing


things could drag on without any real impulse toward the closest poc, lifting/compressing

someone laddering yields would be okay grabbing more on the high end to pay the low

big money for those mbs credit and derivatives guys for example at mizuho in the city


having the goods can also mean doing good, as tony hawk was recognized

https://goodworldnow.com/good-human-awards/2022-winners

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  #45 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: late]

seems early, but opened already, energy is up, vix sideways, action 2-sided until motion established

touch at a support level, needs a clean break, but there is a gap below, majority of volume is above

action seems to want to test the support level, and the gap could be filled eventually with the break

[mood: paused]

since this is more 2-sided, there has to be confirmation before really getting into something

monday pause is ok to just wait a while until things really wake up, action is also saying similar

the process is, if unable to break then the alternative would be to float and follow the LT frame

[mood: developing]

the indexes are breaking, but this is the initial and may recover prior to another re-test

some parts are lagging, however and incomplete so they have to reconcile properly

something funny could happen, though dipping where HH could develop waiting for the DT

[mood: piqued]

@EOD, see that a possible MT HH may be possible, though we are in a ST DT, or flagging

this would provide a later dip but also generate some HL for the MT through pushes

energy, vix, indexes are all slumped but can be considered as a breather, no rush to position

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  #46 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: breached]

gap very much breached, and the hanging resistance overnight also limited upside

energy did lead with vix also now running higher, interesting waves though may be dipping

events cleared and now working through anticipation, crypto is not reacting to anything rn

[mood: positioning]

working off the weakness, vix is trying to bump a bit while energy is dragging, being held

guessing vix went trendless with the bump and needs to re-establish as well, floating around

due to lack of conviction and developing areas, this should be a good time to pause

EOD

this is actually healthy for LT, accumulation and the pause/holding as larger ships make a case

energy is still dragging lower, perhaps a new node can form ahead of the previous poc

if so, then the area will keep notching until new sentiments are established either way

[mood: near close]

so the previous support / poc areas were hit giving a chance to get things going

nymex closed and vix hovered past the inflection point still, dealing with entries

watch the closing imbalance and signals for some type of accumulation or lack thereof


from the looks of it, we are in the beginning stages of the kwanzaa/festivus spiritfest

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  #47 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: pending]

vix under low 22s would be beneficial and energy seems to be resetting as well, eia pending

current running a re-test again not a fast mover due to lack of vol trend, back to prev poc

generally, no rush to position and crypto is not a responder really so there is stuff pending

[mood: piqued]

interesting things moving fast, already at the re-test and going, so there is only a bit to eia

consensus is not quite there, so seems early but definitely some kind of battle going on

battle seems to have subsided and positioning happened, interesting signals ongoing

[mood: solidifying]

energy coiling, vix is trying to re-trend and the indexes are getting levels for positioning

sometimes the wide action at open is an area prior to initiation, more than normal amount

so then, thing are aligned and there will be more participants with the move as confirmed

[mood: lockstep]

really up to vix, as the activity is trendless and energy is dragging and the dip was deep

another re-attempt wave prior if confirmed one sign would be to break intraday high for HH

some wind in sails due to upcoming events mid-month but hesitation need to turn to conviction

[mood: quiet front]

vix is mapping out, energy is at lows and quiet as developing rumbles in the distance

the poc has been filling out more, the rumbles are those being in the eye of a storm

though storm has negative connotations, at least a pause before further action

[mood: testing]

trying out something noticed recently, and nearing close, will call EOD, now that vix ended

seems to be a very silent but subtle shift, like an exit from the eye, action is confirming

bit microscopic, but coupled with flow or delta might be useful here, again checking the moc


EOD

vix was milked to the last drop here

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  #48 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: vix energy turn]

energy and vix are trying to turn and indexes found relief, we are still floating however

expiries and contract changes soon, some inflation data with some pointing at supply relief

crypto is tame, inching closer to a buildout but needs a revert or dip to fill out more, poc under

[mood: paused]

energy is dragging, vix is still hovering and there is a HH starting, inflection points are still above

extension target was hit, fast moving vs last few days, seems like the larger positioning ended

interesting is that vix is now leading and seems to want to hit inflection, the market supportive

[mood: so close yet far]

extended and may need a break to really hit the inflection breach, so a re-test and challenge

the sentiment has improved however, with the strength in indexes though energy is correcting

opening area is around the re-trace, which may form the LL, a chance to adjust positioning

[mood: filling out]

so the action seems to be solidifying support, and tests will be hovering in the area

is a bit of a pulled spring, where there is an overshoot gap above after hitting inflection

not sure on the timing, but the LT seems to be driving as vix matches, energy still dragging

[mood: last call]

vix has now caught a pause and seems like the last stop before arriving at destination

watching the action for clues on how this goes, energy is slinking lower now post keystone

would be considered too early, and the EU close may have influence, have to wait a bit

[mood: early]

looks kinda early but wants to push, see if this holds or wants to develop more

vix is not following, maybe another dip, eu close now, otherwise, this push is strong

looks like the process is being drawn out further, will have to move toward the close

[mood: mid]

EOD kinda, moves are incomplete and hesitant so onto the next, testing resistance

may also have a preference to fill under, touching highs but pullback was not large

breakout would be early, but either way is okay, would possibly hit inflection

[mood: denied]

valiant effort, just not at that stage yet, good to see resistance levels being tested

energy is still unloaded and vix is making attempts but on lower volume, so pending

the nymex close may be the area, but there was a retest, quick too, vix following

[mood: vibin]

mood is a vibe, that was it, challenge accepted and the thing is running like a trackstar

That's a vibe (that's a vibe) / She wanna vibe (wanna vibe) / That's a vibe, yeah

lots of entries being given, she's in a generous mood, what can you say, it's that time of year

[mood: late thoughts]

so the inflection hit in vix, turning into a positive bias for indexes, so MT thinking is long

there may be a new poc developing if volume continues in this vein, which notches up higher

this does not discount a surprise re-dip but support areas are beyond the main poc

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  #49 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107

[mood: less cloudy]

timeframes are trying to converge, the earliest are there but inflection is still testing on higher frames

indicative of a slight bias, but needs to confirm on longer time, the drop near close yday was a suggestion

and vix was incomplete, and incomplete bottoms in indexes, but the outlook is clearing up at least

[mood: formation]

new poc is filling in above the last, slowly and incrementally building a base somehow

vix is not leading and the indexes themselves should show a pure form of inflection to confirm

so these combined are causing a stall to build out a better structure for an attempt higher

[mood: btd slight]

bit late, but btd mode is activated in form, though on the larger frame it is less clear

recovery from ppi was the most recent evidence, perhaps anticipation toward fomc

the only tricky part is that the dips can be harsh in the early stages, so a bit of caution

[mood: LT]

for LT players, this is a bit more healthy and there are supposedly cta triggers in proximity

the trigger is possibly the inflection point and eyes are watching this area to really initiate

due to vix resuming trending on small lines the danger false breaks is lower / tailwind there

[mood: tipping scales]

friday is usually more controlled, however there is a gap region above that could rupture

vix in turn would react and confirm moving from small to larger frames and initiate early

let's see if the breakout can be contained, but hoping there is preferable delay to solidify

[mood: let it paint]

overall, there is a scenario where no conviction in the next few sessions, kicks in gravity

the vix initiation would be nullified and dominos in place to flip the other way unfortunately

let the indexes paint and lead to really confirm, since there is uncertainty behind the curtain


[mood: preventing slippage]

winter is coming, gotta mount some vredesteins, quiet and good traction in wet, colder temps

there is another scenario where the dip forms a new poc and shifts the inflection under that

this would offer a protective scenario / magnete to present the inflection from being hit


[mood: tgif]

many are currently thinking in terms of protection and hedging, hopefully not in excess

positioning would be to ladder with the HL and stop if new LL formed, can also scalp vs hold

establishment of a higher poc in the bouncing today, best way fwd would be slowly lower tbh


seems to be lowering the inflection points while meeting them as resistance til a real attempt

options closed but the opp is actually there since we are backed by the vix, interesting drop

in for a few at the close, had more but de-risked, decent area for a carryover, though expiry soon

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  #50 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 107


[mood: breakout pending]

in the midst of contract roll and developing breakout with levels close to inflection

energy is rising and vix is at highs to see when the re-test may complete pending

stalling / expiries all in the mix with more event risk on the way, so incomplete pic

[mood: energy ahead]

energy leading which is interesting, as a key inflation factor, room to breathe possibly

natty also erupted from winter effects, though the data pulled for c/ppi lags

vix is stalled out hovering at highs seems to be waiting or setting up / positioning

[mood: some wait]

there are specialists who run between expiries, but some also wait, since volume is split

vix decided to wake after baking near highs, and trying to make that push, crypto flat

see if energy can provide an extra tailwind and this grinds, poc is above as well

[mood: cta levels]

levels may have changed since, but ctas have levels around here to start triggering buys

the action is less convincing and the swap in expiries also complicates things a bit

some indexes also lagging, bit more inertia there inching ever closer so it seems

[mood: partial pass]

in some views, the some indexes have pushed through and would be considered dips

development in other indexes or frames still need to support to fully convince so partial

this is a decent development, established some kind of temporary put, also poc formed now

[mood: subtle moves]

so technically the enviro changed but has gone unnoticed until full completion, considered early

early phase is subtle and not until early-mid would there be confirmation / noticeable action

dips can extend down further than expected providing entries, but again, needs more consensus

[mood: less subtle]

the action is building and catching on, perhaps toward close or after more data, and weekly

mid-month will be telling possibly, energy holding highs, indexes climbing as well, decent

some holding risk going into next open due to data, but dips would be considered positive dev

EOD

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Last Updated on December 19, 2022


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