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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)


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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

  #31 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

on an upward trajectory since the last push, the late pm dip was just a reload

maybe a few more %pts, enough to hedge for further downside in the MT

changing over to a hybrid method, with some swings on stronger trends

too much quick scalping is over trading / churn for broker commissions

how can you minimize the effort, and risk.. selective entry, exit condition

also levels to slowly scale out, though there may be more on the table

//

the most recent cpi gap and go was actually formed in advance

and the gap was really the end result of those previous days

the open on cpi thursday was the result, allowing the AM play out

what started as a two way street, turned into an ascent with HL, HH

the PM cemented things with another swingable push carrying momo

//

at a higher area, when things become more two-sided, things will digest

not sure on the timing, just going with what is there as things paint

and on the fence, but possibly an area to be wary of with resistance

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  #32 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: relaxed, controlled / slightly bored]

now trending, gave a dip for entry and crossed daily, looking for target

took an initial entry in the overnight, treated like a gap event to the open

watched open and found area to scale in two more to average down for starting position

already profitable, probably should have scaled more to be able to peel some toward target

now just watching the minor to peel back just in case, but still under initial entry so not yet

for portfolio stuff, ibb is strong for some reason, xlv and xlp too, rotation? some defensives

//

[mood: slightly surprised / not irritated, waiting]

there was a minor reaction to test the daily, since initial above seen as scaling opp

in a bit early on divergence, should confirm to add more and then do nothing

the early entry is being punished, waiting for confirmation before final scaling

//

[mood: annoyed / dis-engaged, at peace, positioned]

stepped away and came back to force a now late entry but position is scaled

annoying but lesson learned that during a wait, should be patient and more selective

no harm, no foul but slightly annoying, now explicitly defining exit scenarios

another test of the daily will force an exit to make room for additional adds

otherwise, autopilot now, primarily to avoid overtrading / burnout

//

[mood: skeptical / cautious, more comfortable]

decided to scale back around initial entry, giving room in case this HH does not form

have not been watching vix or energy since they are supportive but confusing / lagging

defensive play seemed to be correct as another dip opp presented itself

now prepared for a scenario where the daily is re-tested properly

//

[mood: rushed / anxious, early, gtg]

off to other tasks, saw the reaction around eu close to went with it, daily did re-test

will see what happens, slightly unplanned, but re-gained positioning

//

[mood: hungry / anticipating, holding]

when away exited at some random area trying to remember my levels

came back and looked again and took off another, thought i had more scaled in for some reason

at this point, imagined if things started accumulating instead at open, would be in only a couple

so have scaled back, since profit target actually met, no need to continue further right now

R/R is such now that holding would be good however, the trend seems to be gathering further

//

[mood: more confident, still cautious]

done for the day, holding to close or getting stopped out above breakeven

process is definitely more relaxed and allows more room for error and timing

quick scalping and chasing is too grinding / hard to calculate size-risk quickly

method seems ok, and will avoid days with too much chop or hesitation

//

[mood: flat]

just looking back the exit was in a narrow band though HH/HL still present

compression will take place bringing levels closer together, likely finishing out wave

a bit of expansion could help keep the grind going however, the close should tell more

treating close now as a gap condition similar to overnight, where entry/exit is more rough

EOD

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  #33 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106


[mood: decent, swinging]

entered at globex open just to continue, peeled before ppi but scaled back post event

nothing much else, initial entry was low enough to allow scaling more

targets have been lowered slightly due to compression yday, but still similar

seeing that there is a gap condition so peeling back on the pull back just in case

[mood: amazed, adding]

right after peeling, getting back in, but cost avg has gone up due to churn

a sharp downdraft would hit some stops but also allow better positioning

[mood: anticipation, waiting]

the setup is available to slingshot off ppi highs, but wary of extended hours

treated as a gap in the overnight, a revisit / test lower would allow normalcy

[mood: wondering, waiting]

watching the dip and stalking the possible turn reasonable area would be avgs

another sight line would be the ongoing channel, with blips higher that revert

[mood: tying the shoes]

software updates, break for a while, lacing up maybe going fully laced later

[mood: fully laced]

you get the eastbays, lace em up and try not to sell the new kicks on ebay

gloves on, stepping into the area, through the ropes into the ring, ding ding

[mood: took some punches]

peeled out a little due to lack of conviction, some bumps and bruises

rolling with the punches, so that there might be better positioning for a strike

test jabs, peek-a-boo, more jabs, readying a cross, but might eat a hook

stick and move, body shots, step back and jab, start moving in with a combo

laces got slightly untied, gash over the eyebrow, rounds over soon w/ eu close

just staying in, lungs burning, shoulders sore, giving more punches than getting

[mood: hits keep coming]

best defense is offense, do not let them attack, but keep the guard up, quick combos

suddenly, there's an opening, fake right dip left and wait for the opening attack

quick counter slip, cross in, lead hook, rear uppercut all moving ahead with momo

the combo works, keep going in with another, got countered and took hard hits

dancing around until the eu close holding onto a slight lead, let's see what happens

slight underdog, using the seeming weakness as an advantage, quietly patiently waiting

[mood: give them some punches, dazed but not confused]

giving away some, peeling back again, seeing what the weakness is for an opening

taking the punches to observe further, suddenly there is an opening, they tire out

a couple combos as a response, keep stepping forward, through the counter to test

the last punch actually hits, enough to the ropes, body cut cut, keep them cornered

eu close, round is over, saved by the bell, wait for the exit and finishing move

[mood: the fight between the bull and bears is over]

though we already knew what would probably happen like jake paul, still fun to watch

sore about the eagles mashing their win streak, but time to just reel in the lines

[mood: weak hands or not, going small]

the momo / gap was not maintained, not necessarily weak hands but avoiding levels

not that close yet but breaching would really be an exit signal, so just pacing

turning into a consolidation area, which would cause breakout target to hit

sort of a denouement, end goal of expansion is there with the ppi gap

after that no man's land, and reason for going small, uncertainty is a pain

[mood: curious]

stepped out for a bit, saw a dip and got back in it to win it, good back and forth

looks like the expansion is not taken for granted at this point and healthy action

seems like noise but this is preferred to narrow blipping, and is a two-way exchange

[mood: enlightened]

with levels wide apart, the exchange can allow for a revisit of the previous close

this helps set expectations for sizing and whether or not to continue a swing

[mood: looking ahead]

so there is a turning station where the trolley would make way for another destination

the breakout and then more two-way action will give more clues based on poc, kinda almost

but not really until things really paint it out, still chugging along, good for the lazy strat

the old btd when the opportunity strikes and just let things sit until the next dip swing

this also allows for these gap events so there is less fomo which leads to poor entries

quick drops like today work too, but there's some peace of mind from not holding too

in practice, will probably opt for the latter and give some breathing room

[mood: shop closed]

now that the close is near, the action until the next open is treated as a gap event

EOD

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  #34 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: refreshed]

back in it, looks like a dip in the making, treading water now

possibility of the prev close from the level testing

dow less unhappy than most, a bit of a clue

[mood: stalling]

energy is dipped too, there is eia dow still positive, these kinda days, ok to wait until after

[mood: less stalled]

draw and energy doing stuff, actually not really but the lull is less now

[mood: pensive]

LT, DT
MT,UT
ST,DT
majority still has sway

[mood: baiting the hook]

dropping in a line, seems like the eu environment is the source of drag

type of behavior is similar to early stages, where the majority sways:

LT,DT
MT,UT
ST,UT

[mood: curious]

another RT type possibility

also some utility in vix but more for LT

[mood: fish are biting]

the post eia was an early accumulation phase, really gave a good window

then some type of mid phase, consolidation and then expansion

realize that expansions can go either way

[mood: half time]

usually around eu close marks the initial session, mid-lull and close

try to taper off around the first half and just keep mindful of the later action

[mood: done]

EOD, early but putting marker here

[mood: concept]

small balance board on a big balance board such that balance is set in equilibrium

smaller balance board can find different equilibria but big balance sets the motion

the boards are rocking together with a set motion (sum of moments)

overall they may be slowly rocking one way but the period must sway opposite

so at times, the balance is slightly upset providing opportunity to rebalance

trying to keep up with the overall pendulum swings that control the clockwork

[mood: inspired]

idea for tinkering, having something against the block to maintain the positioning

but just to hedge against especially on days like today, where holding still chops

otherwise levels are still intact and just shifting from leaning one way to the other

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  #35 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: meh]

another dip opp, kinda interesting overnights so far this week

only thing is that the equilibrium is still tipsy so the swings are shorter

also have to do more with less due to the shift in balance

[mood: hmm]

what is interesting is that the balance is being restored at a default level

so the tilting is much more evened out, and may be a better positional situation

[mood: cautious]

light and not heavy for now, the churn has to work itself out

level matters but is not an absolute, just a marker of general situation

the retrace reaction was kinda interesting and does give some hints

[mood: looking out]

turn confirmation would be useful for adjusting positioning still light

cannot afford to be too early and need to wait for confirmation

shifting sentiment more towards the middle ground

[mood: devil's advocate]

so now through the looking glass, imagining the other side in this

there was a faint opp for entry but did not confirm and went against

as the balance has been in favor this is a surprise there is another opp

pending development, to see if the shift still runs in this vein of thought

sentiment will reveal slowly, sort of tease and then boxes start checking

the reaction did not favor the opposition and is considered late phase

[mood: ahead]

the range type mood would have to re-clear several closes but also gains

considered early overall, but has collected more level targets in the dip

this close re-test would place the equilibrium toward aligned tilt to hit levels

those breaches once in late stage would in turn shift sentiment again

[mood: current]

so closer to early-mid at this point, having established sentiment

waiting for follow through, considered early re-test of laggers

[mood: fine print]

so strangely due to consistency targets, just realized by conditions, forced to flatten

really early right here, closing out, really should be holding but a strange rule

EOD

[mood: just watching]

testing from prev close, sentiment of overnight, that is an opp to position further

as levels are still maintained, that the closes past are also unfinished as well

harder to see the aftermath, though the close reaction can be guessed

likely to hold with continuation, with the flag a hint of further extension

[mood: caveat]

do not trust boards, social media even this to provide dd, they lag, are incomplete, etc.

also, some are actually pretty wrong most of the time, whether on purpose or not

dangerous to engage in for fee access, which limits independent critical thinking

following a trend sure, just less so something outside of the paint in lala land

[mood: missing out]

fun to be had, have to sit out, but the retrace was not strong enough to satisfy the devil

usually would be considered early entry, but this is a healthy bounce to accumulate

the lunchtime crowd gets free admission into the happy fun land theme park

another visual is that this can be see as the start of a new bowl opening up

expansions are still maintained another hint is the pace of the pullback

the overall pace today has been gentle, so something like this is quick and dirty

causing fewer participants through the flush and more during the buildup

[mood: further dev]

looks like the retrace developed further and gave another chance to drop in

dip is primed for even more participants, hard part is determining if this is a swing

default is nah, unless there is a reaction toward the close, closer to 50/50 though

some would be rewarded with a coin flip hold in the extended session with vigilance

also consider the upcoming events, minutes and holidays, so could be funky

reaction is optimistic, so there might be more stuffing for those who like fowl but ain't

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  #36 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: tgif]

some nice dipping sauce, gotta wait though, they always run outta wendy's bbq sauce

possibly a rewind to the prev close, may also reward the overnight swingers as well

if there is a premium to holding and positioning, then strength is there, otherwise technical

has not yet touched the area, though bounced off previous minor support, still testing

the hold overnight was only rewarded until the open, afterward has been in decline

running things back does test the balance so there may be fair game sooner or later

[mood: warming up the tires]

gentleman, start your engines, the slicks are on, ambient conditions normal, fueled up

some hit throttle wide open too soon, hold revs for a bit, yellow clicks then brake off

cannot rev hard too soon either, will spin out, gotta ease onto clutch less dropping

[mood: still on e-brake]

track is on a red/yellow flag, cautious conditions ahead, entry angle is off as well

[mood: green light]

go, go, quick shifts, make it clean and fast

struggling off the line, false start, wind it back

run that back turbo, qb as a running back, like the eagles, cept the commanders running it back

[mood: ok back of the line, on the strip again]

speed racer, all your base are belong to us

[mood: siesta, fri pm]

energy dip, flex fuel ethanol alternative is ok, better octane and cooling properties

kinda action that reminds one never to go full retard, energy is low low, ok for traveling

the whole drag strip went on a long lunch, had to re-fuel, might as well gas up at the pump

then realize to go 0.1 sec faster, requires 110% more fuel, so is it worth, etc.

gonna turn on the burners anyway, plus ethanol burns cleaner just watch the fuel lines

[mood: full tank of flex fuel]

trying to convert to an E85 tune, pain to run the tank and then flash, needs bigger fuel pump

requires higher injection rate as well, but focusing on energy since there is an influence

the fri nymex settle and RB held lower, enjoy some decent safer travels or just go ethanol

one for the tank, one for the driver, etc. if only, a half week next week with fewer events

EOD with the close of energy

week in review, the extension of levels caused some turbulence, but back in balance

there have been several examples of islands and this may be something similar

[mood: shift in sentiment]

balance but shifting one of the last transfers made with the dip sentiment, not good

looks like the early day was setting up pylons and bumpers for the new route

drag strips are still running but the traffic signals are a bit different now

[mood: alerted]

is thanksgiving cancelled or something, things are souring awful quickly here

possible resumption of the ongoing major and leftovers already taken

dagger being stuck into the side, defending but starting to bleed

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  #37 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: alarmed]

well, have the same problem of already hitting targets, so gotta take off until next overnight

EOD

also, vix seemed to signal from last week though is less alarmed than say, energy

suggesting a more controlled environment though deflationary, as intended

diminished vol allows for lower hedging premia, options bought vs sold

vix was controlled rather properly, to avoid any semblance of panic

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  #38 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: sleepy]

another LH for the continued swing, could position near the open where the prev close was revisited

[mood: less sleepy]

bounded movement but drifting, vix keeps slinking as well, shallow maybe intended to fill areas

[mood: ~E75 = E85 + 110 octane GT260]

passed by a c8 zr1, prob also getting some race fuel, sticking to e85 with some as octane booster

tune is already slipping the wheels at launch, have to bring on the torque slowly with low boost

[mood: let it snow?]

either a black ◆ or double black diamond ◆◆ type, just needs good pow, maybe some moguls / ice

prob more snow than avg, gotta get the severe snow rated grip on and the de-icer

already saw what happened in buffalo, so bring some of that!

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  #39 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106

[mood: pre-break]

test to see bid up but mostly from vix run though energy is sunk

though e85 is 30% less, the mpg is also 30% less, so similar to rb

octane/anti-knock is better with a cooling effect so there are adv

looking at zc_f and hoping that a cooling effect might happen there too

[mood: positioned]

guess they let things run a bit, to get into swings, not a bad opp

apex is a bit diff since they do not continue the trail with paid accts

there are some swing accts however that are similar, gotta pay for data

almost to the point where kinetick is not really a thing anymore

black fri / cyber mon, maybe things will be offered @ discount

EOD

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  #40 (permalink)
handspin
boston ma
 
Posts: 333 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 106


[mood: post-break gear-up]

recognized a flat type re-bal, but out now. vix decided to choose a different path

[mood: pondering]

so racing/shooters, do they enable improper risk or allow exploration similar to any sim

possibly an environment, with guidance and proper rule development, carried over

to a real situation, allows understanding of boundaries, where they can be over-stepped

but needs to be real enough to punish mistakes and provide an accurate simulation

that is, fun can be had too, but that fun should not translate to a real-world parallel

without deeply engrained pop-ups that this is not real life, there should be warnings

//

one could also take the other way, in a real scenario like a military-trained vet in games

or practice non live-round combat scenarios that understand positioning and survivability

fully engrained already is the experience that would not easily force common mistakes

there are pilots who train on sim sure, and gran turismo has translated simmers to realtime

guessing that there was a hybrid reals/sim exposure prior to be able to squeeze faster times

//

also there is a plan b, what to do in case of emergency that has been established / rehearsed

danger in the comfort of sims, that reality will be a harsh punisher, whereas sims just reset

[mood: anyway, vix not as happy]

the levels are now such that 2-way balance is available and situation / context has shifted

fail to test last close gives another lower candle, has been filled since pending re-test

if not then re-visit previous area prior to break, just let things develop and let things close

EOD

about halfway to target on the remainder, set to auto-flatten regardless at close

deciding that holding through close is not really necessary since re-entry during re-open

this seems to be the running model for these props as well, some interesting deals out there

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Last Updated on December 19, 2022


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