2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

November 1st, 2022, 03:52 PM

using a flattener to call it until event risk goes away, collected but just vibin until news

normally would extend the range, last fomc event the whipsaw / zig zag was pretty wild

hardly any movement overnight, still trending, the whips are short-lived but annoying

there is eia where energy is currently testing and vix is also testing or waiting

a lot of individual equities look incomplete, so definitely wait and see

since open, selling non-stop though trying to bounce, at lower range

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at this point just double checking that i'm flat lol

November 1st, 2022, 07:08 PM

Gg

handspin

waiting for energy, vix likes to test the extremes recently

bigger than expected draw would be supportive

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impetus died off, still grinding with vix

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well-contained, controlled dips with dollar, energy and vix influences

earnings sentiment is lower

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longer term may be rounding and fixing various issues in energy bonds as a consequence of covid measures / stimulus

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on earnings, next week shows GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL and AMZN, consumer brands look ok

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index turn is good and coincides with energy supporting and vix ceiling

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energy and vix supportive, prob still sitting on earnings

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November 2nd, 2022, 10:30 AM

yeah game over, man.. game over, scalps are ok till the event

after eia, seems more bouncy, so prob wait a bit, still sunk

bounce was short lived, not a good sign as the range keeps pressing

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crude decided to pop, vix too

wow poppa popped the poppers, flat into announcement

this is totally sit back and watch mode

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wow happened faster than estimated, continuation

whipsaws are not fun, and mess things up a bit

slippage is kinda killer, gotta pick the right spot

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just pressing and targeting under 11k nq again

well targets met, leaving some on the table due to extremes, will prob overshoot

maybe some type of covering bounce into close, who knows just watching more

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well kinda all over the place today caught off-guard, made a mess of positions

but still worked out, scalping is a grind, rather just take a good spot and hold

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want to try adding and holding as next strat, have to work on entries

fortunately the trend was there and strong, also, the bowl formation broke possibly

November 3rd, 2022, 12:15 PM

missed the ongoing, saw that continuation but watching to confirm

unfamiliar area but possible retrace, energy bounced and vix dipped

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scalped a bit into turn, but just watching the rebound play out to give

some areas for positioning, fomc event in the am tomorrow as well

vpoc is also below now, so there may be some dip opps later

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today was a day of unknowns, and by default a continuation until proven otherwise

there are some faint signs, but really light and tough to coin flip on

probably pressing lower by default, but who knows, refuses to blip high for long

the problem is also vpoc is lower and the wedge usually points to further not a turn

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also the confirmed exit has not shown and needs the overnight, though targets have shown

at least with the unknowns, there is enough hesitation to re-position and flatten

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a swing hold from post fomc was rewarded, though with some whipsaw but perseverance

would see profitability via continuation safely near vpoc and deciding on further moves

levels have moved lower, and and generate an exit or who knows during fomc event

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fomc, strong numbers, with an unemp tailwind and huge pin bar through the range

overnight was cn optimism and energy is larger with vix dropping

testing yesterday's high and breaking out would be.. yeah it just did

also testing a sim strat where a re-test of break would be area to add

this is still minor compared to the initial entry which should be build 3x

any adds would be minor compared to the initial, to avoid altering overall

again, this is a test strat and not used yet outside the sim environment

there are additional levels to add, but would be even smaller

does require some foresight planning and can be considered a "reverse pyramid'

going smaller and smaller as adds build higher

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guess the adds on sim were bunk, time to go oh hecc and play it safe and light

the one saving grace was that the adds were an insignificant chunk compared to the initial

so at least flat or positive, but definitely gave some back on the revert

feels like there was an exit and then a re-entry for continuation and the vpoc is alive

lol, the hecc is happen rn, i'm not in at all with this whipsaw, undecided market action

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feels like the initial response at open did not like the incoming situation

there is controlled pressure and the rate agenda is doing some work

market is learning that bad data may not convert to something positive now

if mistakenly positive, will be corrected by yield adjustment in response

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looking closer this hit yday close again before moving higher

but the challenge from yday high seemed to be retesting after the initial pre-open breakout

this time though, there might be less wind in the sails aka no direction and reversion

the levels at high seem to correspond to the fomc day close, also confirming some resistance

seems to be a slow grind driving down the indexes, maybe technically to complete waves etc

November 4th, 2022, 10:53 AM

big rejection candle, but no impetus to really follow through, friday action

the price has re-entered the stratosphere and back into range, with vpoc lower

really a hands-off session unless scalp happy and quickly reactive

but things can go wild for a bit in these choppy conditions

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also vix is stuck lower, kinda strange, energy fading

the price has cropped the lower bound which would make further touches more devastating

pretty blippy rn, smaller moves, mostly off table just sliding into the last few hours

also daylight savings will prob re-align certain closes and timings.. tgif etc

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there is a plan, maybe plan b, just that the plan goes sideways so there's improvisation

looks messy but learning on the fly, not keen on the action today, but the taste was not too bad

feels like track racing, trying to tune and adjust to the conditions, less squirrels more nuts

but usually turns to peanuts while adapting, then the car gets faster and times lower

just trying not to crash and stay on course, probably less foot on gas, more on pedal

shift earlier, until things seem stable and then start pushing the limits until you gotta ease back

then there's drifting, controlled chaos, not really ready for all that, or controlled nascar crashes

big risk / reward, rather just earn things sure and steady, better for the nerves, less sweat

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k well vpoc is higher and there is a large candle so we wait while energy and vix at highs

kinda looks like the pin bar was filled in the post eu session, vix fading with energy

definitely not in kansas anymore, waiting for oz to give some kinda decree or something

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sometimes these calls are so opposite from others, not really reading much into those

agenda might be skewed, someone knows but just lies or something to that effect

just take things with a grain of salt, big candles incoming, just watching the magic

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no bueno, some cray cray action near weekly opex, good example of reversion

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trying to ignite but a bit late in the day, situation is also ok to hold but dip entry ok if not

stayed till the bitter end, got some in, lots of non-participation during this but good to watch

November 7th, 2022, 09:55 AM

election season stuff is acting weird so maybe just pause until things are sorted

liquidity is also thinner, or at least things are jumpy / slippy

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finally some direction, probably needs to test to sort itself out. energy dipping for some reason

recalling that nq 11k was a previous support area now resistance, just testing at max levels

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still jumpy as mid terms roll through, seeing energy and cryptos fading for now

November 8th, 2022, 10:03 AM

indexes have been following a narrow up-channel for a while

wouldn't call this a real trend but a push on expectations / optimism

seems thin as well, so things can shift momentarily, so less swingy more shifty / slippy

days like these are good mental health days, as the var is not really worth the pain

that is, the channel is dictating the path somewhat, selling into strength but two-sided

building into the event somewhat, with release of pressure once the news passes

channel break is possible too, if there is some type of expectation beat, positivity

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just riding the wave for now, there would be an extension of the range

looking back, the past couple days were building up / accumulation

price would revisit the previous close at least and continue building

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right before that drop, crude had been going lower and vix higher

kinda mental, but looks like the channel is ruling things for now

recently, the indicator / frequency of the phrase 'the eff is happening' has increased

for something that is not really happening, the range / vol is pretty wide

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in these type of wide band, trendless moments, retraces are actually okay

just have to be aware of when the trend re-appears, and confirm any retrace prior

November 9th, 2022, 10:42 AM

not liking the action, downward bias but incomplete and blipping, energy was sunk already with vix spiking

seems like the past couple days are being undone a bit from previous sentiment, unload / sell the news

looking for a reload, but the sentiment maybe started even yesterday before the event finished

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literally just scalping around the sma, directionless, with some down pressure but wave is off

good example of letting the market develop a better polaroid picture, also veterans day still open

some type of DT line needs to break first, maybe re-test before things re-align, reluctance overall

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tape painted more than usual, looks like direction was selected for a little while but cautious

mostly broader ranged, except for energy which has caught a ride lower, vix is at highs

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close is stretching toward previous low, just watching since the last half is a bit wild

sentiment reflects incoming cpi possibly and other ongoing issues, good to wait a bit into open

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sometimes the bigger picture is like the cliff's notes / tl;dr and time spent is worth

while some enjoy the drama and details and confirmation of zooming in, better entry

the story and outcome will still be the same regardless, so some just skip to the end

the close is like a hint on what might happen the next episode, and looks like prep work

the negative sentiment has been wrung out, but technically incomplete, TBD

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post CPI madness, also politico is counting house rep need 218, at ~207 already

gravity taking over, at least consolidating, energy is lackluster, vix reset expectations

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rare scenario of hitting another level, just learning experience and seeing what happens

guess that missing wave re-appeared and is setup for some kind of bigger LT move

November 10th, 2022, 11:08 AM

the one last hurrah play, that might cause more accumulation, though two-sided and pass the buck

this is a level near the last fomc announcement, would give clues as to what happens mid term

had fun with scalp method, time to focus on longer term and practice swings in this environment

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sensation that this prop will gain enough time to gather positions and revert, levels are there

knee-jerk reaction needs to tested and energy has not really followed through

crypto all over the place, signs of de-stabilization, reasonable to just miss / pass over gap

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signaling continuation, throughout as the next level seems to have been passed

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able to recover today after pausing to revamp and things became less complicated

the key was pausing until something reasonable appeared and followed through with that

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practicing swing trades means allowing more room for error, but is less involved vs scalping

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AM open kinda floating in between, see continuation still, esp with energy propping

politico has an image where gop holds inland and dems coastal, gop slightly ahead for now

again, test of open from previous close with positive reaction, still two-sided currently

just scalping with the flow, nothing really happening just creeping higher

eventually the pressure would lead to another breakout, so possible continuation

November 11th, 2022, 11:08 AM

testing the lower end of this area would just compress things from yday's expansion

but there is still residual strength and energy / vix also following through

just a little more fady after the bumps higher that is all, near the poc

seems blippy as things lower a bit, underlying push or tailwind present

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looking more LT, there is a recovering counter push during the lower tests

so a mild btd type mode ongoing, the last 30 days have literally been in place

maybe a push to higher to the LT area of past and then revisit the larger trend

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energy faded and vix is sitting around, so there is some churn / chop

energy laggin but vix still going, HH and attempts to hold broke

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still going until things really fade, remarkable run through cpi/elections

seeing things for a fade attempt but just staying away now, rounding off

needs a visit to poc or retrace, but with the ongoing strength is trend biased

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energy closed and vix still aligned, really just strolling along while pressing

guess that was the warning curtain call, see if the re-test can surpass or not

failed to hit another high, was tracing along the whipsaw, just a technical re-test

still not complete however, so the extended session might work it out better

2022, year two (plus 10 or so)

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2022, year two (plus 10 or so)